World Cup Odds
World Cup odds via the Athletic
I think the Americans got a tougher group than most think, but 80-1 seems like a pretty good price.
The Dutch at 11-1 seems like a good wager just because Group A is weak and the Group B runner-up won't be a power (provided it isn't England)--seems like a clear path to the quarterfinals.
The Germans at 10-1. They are ALWAYS around the quarterfinals or better and I believe 2018 was an aberration.
What say you?
The best athlete nonsense never dies. Many of the best men players in the world are all of 5'9 145-155 lbs. In fact a large group of the most creatives in midfield are that. Center backs and some strikers are taller with jumping ability. That's a small group of the larger pot.
Equate hockey in Canada to soccer in most countries. The kids play it non stop. Almost all kids (male). So it's a percentage game. Iceland with population of 300k made it to the World Cup in 2018. It wasn't due to a bunch of freak athletes.
Outside a few center backs and strikers the athletic profile of these guys is very much similar to guys you walk by every day aside amazing endurance. Guys run 9 miles a game vs a point guard or wide receiver clocking in at 1-2 miles... With many breaks in the game. Soccer only a halftime.
Its a street sport in most countries... Kids come home from school and play on their own. It's not a sport of freak athletes so having 11 Michael Jordan's is not how it works. If the Spanish team lined up in a room you'd probably be shocked at how they were almost all shorter than typical dude and many skinny guys who wouldn't be 160 lbs soaking wet.
They have very unique skills.
P.s if you are going to blow your money on 80:1 pls just Venmo we direct and don't waste it on thin air. The World Cup is won by the same small group of countries. Just like an upset can happen in NCAA tourney sure anything can happen in a game. But over the course of a long tournament one of the top few always win. It's an arduous journey which requires depth skill and luck.
There are more than enough elite athletes to go around. Obviously those two leagues attract the best of the best youth coaching and skill development is not where it needs to be if we want to consistently compete despite that.
And maybe that’s okay. It’s always been a bit weird to me that young kids in these academies focus almost exclusively on soccer
Americans are really fucking lazy
Though you may be speaking from your frame of reference, Cincinnati, my experience with friends in the city is that they're very hardworking.
What do your friends in the city have to do with kids playing soccer? The facts are that 1/4 of 20yr old Americans are obese. A lot more are overweight. A lot more sit at home and play video games but won't be obese until their metabolism slows down. I work in the medical field. Still have no idea what your hardworking friends have to do with this unless they were former USMNT players.
Darn those lazy kids, spending all their time reading blogs!
As I wrote, I assume your immediate experience of Americans' work ethic is Cincinnati, so I countered that my experience of people in the city is that they're hard workers.
Now you ask what they have to do with soccer. Not a lot but I was responding to what you wrote, that "Americans are really fucking lazy."
Having supported myself since high school, serving in the Army, fighting forest fires, and doing 20-30 other jobs, while living in 7 states and spending at least a couple months in 8 more, I've encountered Americans who are lazy. Also many more who work hard.
I will give you this respect: you didn't simply neg me but responded.
Every damnfool in American thinks every other damnfool in America is lying around doing nothing, and that this--somehow--amounts to stealing. (Where are all those welfare queens who are robbing us blind squirreling it away? I just never have been able to figure that out.) Country full of demented Puritans who are often, in truth, trying to figure out who they can exploit so they can lie around and do nothing themselves. I have been around enough rich people to know that their lazy assertions of everyone else's laziness are often utter garbage--some of them hard-working, many of them having stumbled into ancestral fortunes. And I have been around enough poor people to know that--while it's easily possible to feel that things are hopeless for them--they mostly have to work their behinds off just to keep running in place.
Americans work more hours on average than the frickin' Chinese, more than the people of any other country on earth. And in strict economic terms, they are the most productive. Cincy Maize is speaking, very lazily, out of his probably fat and lazy tuchuses.
is this really a question that is still getting asked every world cup?
I have a theory that the US actually underperforms in international sports. We might be the only country in the world with all the ingredients to be good in almost every international sport, except one--organization. We don't have the structure from the state (federal government--Minister of Sports) that coordinates all of this talent (both athletic and coaching) into a cohesive plan that optimizes it.
Soccer which is played by some of the poorest people in the world costs far too much to play in America. We need high level soccer to be more accessible for lower income kids. So basically until we fix the infrastructure and pour money into bigger pools of players we will be behind any European country that cares for the sport.
More than the cost, much of the rest of the world plays soccer all the time, all ages, which means there's potential in nearly the entire population.
That interest is partly circular. Wiith most people playing, watching, talking and thinking about soccer, it's only natural that others pick it up. In other words, it's popular because it's popular.
I think there's a deeper cultural reason: at its fundamental level, to just play a game it doesn't require equipment or space.
Baseball requires space, and at least a baseball and a bat. (Stickball is similar but it must have different rules and expectations than baseball.) Football requires space and an inflated ball, and except for flag football, helmet and pads. Basketball requires some space, level ground, and an inflated ball. Hockey requires space and ice.
But any number of people can play soccer in any amount of space. I saw two guys I in a hallway using an empty can to play a reasonable version of soccer.
And yet... for the last few cups the highest demand for tickets has always been from the US.
I've got mine (minus the final). Anyone else going?
I think the Americans got a tougher group than most think,
The Americans got the best draw imaginable (for being 3rd in their federation 15th in the world)!!!
If England goes #1 and USA goes #2 out of group play, they get A1 in the next game.
But with the hosts being in group A, that means the US will not face a true Pot 1 team in the first round of the knockout stage.
A1 is likely Netherlands, though. Hardly the ideal opponent. The US has a tough group, especially if Wales pulls in, with Bale. It would be difficult to play the finale of the group, needing a win, perhaps by multiple goals if the first match is a draw, in front of what will probably be a hostile crowd against Iran.
Not really. Probably 75% of possible combinations would have been better.
They were in pot 2. The fact they're 15th in the world and 3rd in CONCACAF is irrelevant beyond that it puts them in pot 2.
They got one of the toughest draws out of any pot 2 team because of that European playoff winner. Name a pot 2 team that definitely got it worse. Maybe Switzerland? That's probably it.
A1 will almost certainly be the Netherlands which is not an easy draw. Now, if USA manages to win the group, and while it's deep, it is winnable, the A2 team should be relatively easy.
Probably Mexico. I can see Poland and Argentina finishing ahead of them. Poland is probably of a higher quality than Wales, but it's close to be fair. I'm not sure how good England is especially because their CBs are in a bit of form crisis at the moment, but we don't really have the 9 to exploit that either. It'll be a fun group regardless, and I expect the US to get out of and hopefully get to the Rd. 16
Arguable, but I would say Poland is overrated because of Lewandowski and Saudi Arabia is significantly worse than Iran (like, Iran could come up with a result, but Saudi Arabia? much more of a gimme). It is close though, and if Wales fails to advance, then this becomes closer.
I do agree that it should be an interesting group, lot of good storylines, and USA should still advance. But they got a really rough pot 4 draw.
Mexico is the most overrated team in the tournament. They looked awful at home against the US, just awful. But agreed that Saudi Arabia is much, much worse than Iran. Iran is like Korea or Japan--a solid team that can often find a draw. This is the best group they've gotten in their last 3 World Cups as well. They could lose all 3, but they could also advance. Not sure they would have felt that way in 14 and 18.
Yeah, I agree with all that
I know Iran has good ELO, but looking at qualifying- Iran had a win where Saudi Arabia had a draw, but otherwise their records are identical. And Saudi Arabia had both Australia and Japan in their group, whereas Iran basically just had Korea.
I imagine homefield is interesting in Asia - those countries are super far from each other and the middle east's climate is a factor.
Could also make an argument that Denmark got a tougher draw as a pot 2 team if Peru makes it through. France is tougher than England and Peru is probably close to the winner of Wales/Ukraine
Yeah, I doubt we get out of our group. And as you say--if we do the Netherlands likely awaits. Still, it's a fun group of very young players to watch. In 2226, we can demand that they go farther.
80-1 but 14th best odds. I think it's more to do with them being a long shot even if they get out of group play more than anything.
I bet we don’t make it out of our group
Pasting my response from the diaries.
Agree that USA got one of the tougher draws of any pot 2 team although it's not a group of death (there really isn't one). The Europe playoff winner is tough as the pot 4 draw. Iran is not very good, but they're playing in their backyard.
That said, they should still advance.
I don't know that I'd say 80-1 odds are good, per se. Maybe relatively but all these futures odds are pretty bad for the bettor. Only good for the house. For instance, let's assume these are the odds USA would advance out of each round:
Group Stage: 60%
Round of 16: 40%
Quarters: 35%
Semis: 30%
Finals: 30%
Their odds of winning with those odds is about 132-1. The house only pays a little better than half that.
As for the Germans, they also lost in the round of 16 in the Euros last summer. I know they're a big name but 10-1 seems like a sucker bet.
I'm not sure your odds assumption is accurate. In every World Cup there's always a surprise round of 16 or QF game: Russia / Croatia was a QF game in 2018. Czech / Denmark in Euro 2020. Not sure the Americans would be favorites against those teams, but don't see them as 2 to 1 underdogs either. It would absolutely take some luck, but if France wins Group D there's a plausible scenario to get to the semifinals via the Dutch (who would be favored, but aren't as good as previous editions) and Argentina (gotten past the QFs one time since 1990 and were the underperformers of the tournament in 2018 outside of Berlin). There are a lot worse paths to get to that point. Italy not being in the tournament helps as well.
Germany played England as well as anybody in Euro 2020 for 90 minutes and lost to France on an own-goal in the group phase. Not their strongest team, but more than any nation, they seem to find a way--the last 4 years not withstanding.
After watching the Costa Rica game, I’m skeptical that we get out of the group stage. England has a much better team than the last time we faced them in the World Cup in 2010, when the English goalie gave up one of the all-time howlers on a slow rolling shot.
Yeah, it's a good thing Croatia isn't in our group.
Do they? When we faced them in 2010 they had Gerard, Lampard, John Terry, and prime Wayne Rooney.
They are a good team with lots of talent. But we have WAY more talent than we did 12 years ago.
Yes, they do. They are a much better TEAM. They haven't had a better international stretch (in terms of major competition results) than the last 4 years.
Meaning they haven't made the finals in a euro before?
Don't get me wrong, england is good. But they aren't a juggernaut.
I don't think they are a juggernaut either, but they are definitely in an "up phase" for a team that is traditionally solid. They are legitimate contenders to win the whole thing.
England is better than 2010 imo. The usa is as well.
USA unfortunately does not play well away from home so every WC is tough on them.
There is no group of death and whining when they could have had Brazil Spain (who the USa would have 20% possession against) Argentina Portugal France for God sakes is par for course. Aside from lucking into Qatar as your pot 1 what of the other 7 is "easy".
The pot 4 sucks if it's Wales but other alternatives were mostly African teams the USA usually struggles with just the same. Or Ecuador They were not allowed to be seeded with some of the other crossovers nor Canada.
If the US can't beat the pot 3 whichever it is they have no right complaining. They avoided all of south America to boot
Germany is a far cry from Blitzkrieg.
Seems like France v Brazil is inevitable.
I would bet a LOT of money on Qatar making out of the group rounds.
There is no way with this much riding on this event and the money they have that team somehow, someway, does not make it to the elimination round.
I would take that bet. They ended up getting a pretty brutal draw. Netherlands is one of the best pot 2 teams, Senegal one of the best pot 3 and Ecuador one of the best pot 4 teams such that each of those teams could have been in the pot above. That group isn't even that much worse than the others despite the "seeded" team being 50th ranked instead of top 8.
I like Netherlands and Senegal to advance.
I expect some VERY suspect calls going Qatar's way. There will be just enough "help" to get Qatar through.
If you look at ELO rankings, group B (USA, Eng, Iran, ?) could be the toughest with Wales and maybe Scotland. It's going to be really tough for USA to get out of this group. It's not a cake walk for England.
I think Mex has it pretty good - Argentina is a bit disjointed right now but excellent, SA is probably going to be the worst team in the WC and Poland near the worst of the Euro teams. CAN has a tough group - I really like Morocco.
I would bet Portugal. They can get goals from a everywhere. Senegal is dangerous too.
Argentina underrated in the sportsbooks. They're as talented a team as any and they have excellent team chemistry.
THE DUTCH!!!
Hup Holland!!!!
80-1? I will give you a billion to 1 and enjoy my 1 dollar.