Comparing Cade & JJ to Henson & Brady
I was thinking the other day at the end of the MSU game, the comparisons between this year and Drew Henson’s freshman year.
On one hand we have Cade who isn’t a 5th year senior like Brady was, but the starter and his backup is a 5 star phenom. Brady was the starter and Drew Henson a 5 star, respectfully as a freshman coming in to take his spot. Now we are fortunate the Yankees are not involved here breathing down on Harbaughs neck.
I wanted to know what the board thinks, is this a similar situation? Cade the starter and we know what to expect from him, or the freshmen phenom who is more aggressive and much brighter ceiling. I personally like that we sis not red shirt JJ, with the new transfer rules keeping him involved in the offense will help his growth.
What does the board think ?
November 10th, 2021 at 6:17 PM ^
Interesting counterfactual. Michigan still almost won that game despite performing absolutely abominably.
The Henson in '01 question is interesting, because that team really had some serious shortcomings that year. The running game wasn't great and we really only had one receiver, albeit a receiver having one of the great receiving seasons in Michigan history.
And Michigan won some games with, well, luck. The Wisconsin win in particular jumps out as a tremendous lucky break.
Yet the losses in the regular season were so... close run. The Washington loss, which everyone forgets because it was three days before 9/11, was the dumbest of all possible losses and not even really Navarre's fault, with a clinching FG blocked for a TD immediately followed by a pass bouncing off the hands of the intended RB and into the arms of a Washington DB, also returned for a TD--a pick six that wasn't Navarre's fault. And then the next loss was the clock game at MSU. And Michigan spent the entire OSU game trying to patch together an offense with two non-functional QBs and wound up losing by only 6.
Does Drew put Michigan over in those game? I mean, probably. Granted, except for '97 Lloyd was always going to lose some dumb game that shouldn't be a loss, so there's probably a loss in there somewhere. And Michigan was outclassed in talent by the elite teams that year, as demonstrated in the Citrus Bowl drubbing by Tennessee. But Michigan could easily have gone 10-1 or even 11-0 in that regular season with Drew, Marquise Walker, and a comical cast of mid-range guys.
And then, even if they somehow made the national title game and got smoked (by Miami, who was untouchable that year), maybe there *is* a narrative change there.
November 10th, 2021 at 7:37 PM ^
2001 has always been a huge 'what if'. Like you said, the 3 losses in 2001 were so close to wins. It's not hard to imagine those being W's if Henson is the QB.
November 10th, 2021 at 9:31 PM ^
How much of that was on not recruiting a legit QB with Henson committed? How does a National Champion go from a great defense/decent offense in 1997 to a patchwork offense/ok defense in four years?!?
November 10th, 2021 at 10:14 PM ^
Well they did replace a RB who became the NFL rookie of the year and had been UM’s all time leading rusher when he left, 3 long NFL time starters (and one HOF’er) on the Oline, an all American receiver and another QB who likely would have been all-American. Also, they were breaking in Marlin Jackson in 2001 and the front 7 was still very good with a stout line and Hobson and Foote at LB’s. Running game I recall had to be compromised a little (loss of Atrain and Oline) by also making BJ Askew a pretty major receiving threat out of the backfield.
If anything, 2000 was the year they probably should have competed for another national championship with all the offensive talent they had in their junior and senior years, and a defense that was good enough. But then they blow it on the road to UCLA, lose to Purdue on a last second FG, and A-train fumbling the team into completely shocking shoot-out loss to Northwestern. Lost mostly inexplicable games on the road by a total of 7 points.
November 11th, 2021 at 12:12 AM ^
Gagging away big leads, too.
The defense was leaky. But I also suspect that if we had UFR back then we'd be grinding our teeth at the offense calling predictable running plays into stacked fronts to sit on leads when it had a Ferrari available in the passing game.
A Ferrari everywhere, really. The OL was an all-timer even by our standards. The QB was excellent. We had Thomas, one of the five best RBs in program history, and David Terrell and Marquise Walker outside. It was a terrific offense, but it could have been better.
November 10th, 2021 at 2:02 PM ^
Drew Henson is sort of a meme sports trivia questions nowadays. The guy who started over Brady at Michigan.
People forget just how good Henson was. He was going to be the 1st pick in the NFL draft had he come back. That draft included Michael Vick and Lamdamien Tomlinson.
Even after flaming out in minor league baseball, years later, Henson was still drafted in the 6th round.
He had everything. Athleticism, personality, looks, golden arm. He was the biggest recruit in the history of the program, imo.
November 10th, 2021 at 2:04 PM ^
Henson was a generational talent
November 10th, 2021 at 2:20 PM ^
"The guy who started over Brady at Michigan." Except that he didn't.
November 10th, 2021 at 2:42 PM ^
Correct. Never once.
November 10th, 2021 at 2:30 PM ^
LaDainian Tomlinson, too.
November 10th, 2021 at 2:54 PM ^
Useful post. Thank you for your contribution.
November 10th, 2021 at 2:46 PM ^
Agree. Henson was THE complete package at QB and the best prospect at the position Michigan has ever brought in IMO. If he had stayed one more year, he would have proven it and Michigan would have won the Big Ten title. The only other person who comes close is probably Devin Gardner. Unfortunately, he was almost completely squandered as well as miss-coached at Michigan.
November 10th, 2021 at 3:00 PM ^
To this day I still can't wrap my head around Henson turning down everything at his feet in the football world to sign that baseball contract. If he had stayed for the 2001 season, he would have been a frontrunner not only for the Heisman, but also for the #1 pick in the NFL draft. He wasn't even a first round MLB pick; he had been selected in the third round.
Having just looked it up, I didn't realize that his MLB deal was as large as it was (6 years, $17M), but I'm still pretty sure he only collected a small fraction of that amount during his time in baseball. And for comparison sake, Michael Vick, who went #1 the year before, signed a 6 year $62M deal. This was just a gut punch...
November 10th, 2021 at 6:14 PM ^
That baseball contract was the bird in the hand. A football injury could have ended his career before he even had a chance to turn pro. I don't begrudge him the decision.
November 10th, 2021 at 6:19 PM ^
i recall he played baseball due to potential longevity in the sport and long term health.
November 10th, 2021 at 7:05 PM ^
Kirk Gibson model. It worked out for Gibson and he was emphatic that he was better at football than baseball.
November 11th, 2021 at 2:10 AM ^
Kirk was a fantastic baseball player, but he was a very special player for Sparty, sadly. Big, strong, fast. He’s the best Henson comp around, albeit a different position. There was talk in the day he could have been an all time great football player, but ultimately he did have a few all time great moments in baseball, including that which resulted in one of the greatest Freep photos. Link above, sorry I’m too old to know how to embed properly.
November 10th, 2021 at 3:09 PM ^
Part of the hype about Henson came from him being a local guy (Brighton HS) who was personally recruited by Bo.
November 10th, 2021 at 4:39 PM ^
When did Henson start over Brady? Henson didn't start until Brady graduated.
November 10th, 2021 at 2:05 PM ^
This post is factually inaccurate.
In 1998, when Henson was coming in, Brady was a Redshirt Senior, not a 5th-year. Brady was not yet the official starter; he had never started a game before 1998. In fact, in 1997, he started the year behind both Griese and Driesbach. At the beginning of 1998, Brady was still a relative unknown. He earned the job because he worked his ass off and decided against transferring to Cal.
JJ was a heralded recruit, but Henson was on another level, from both a hype and athletic perspective. Henson was considered a generational-level talent pre-1998.
This isn't going to end well for you, OP.
November 10th, 2021 at 2:40 PM ^
IIRC, Carr specifically didn't take a QB in 1997 as a gesture to Henson.
November 10th, 2021 at 2:49 PM ^
That was a not-so-good decision. And it showed.
November 10th, 2021 at 2:53 PM ^
I forget whether or not Coach Carr made the decision to not recruit a QB for the 1997 class specifically because of Henson. You are correct - there was no scholarship QB in the '97 class.
Jason Kapsner was part of the 1996 class. Kapsner had good size and a decent arm, but he was buried behind so many others. Brady was part of the 1995 class. At the beginning of 1997, any 5-star elite QB recruit dreaming of starting as a freshman would have had to battle through Griese, Driesbach, Brady, and Kapsner. Plus, Henson was already looming when he committed as high school junior. Henson did occasionally attend some practices in 1997 as a recruit.
Somewhat as an aside, Diallo Johnson was also a possible dual-threat QB on the roster at the time, but with the crowded QB room, he moved to WR.
November 10th, 2021 at 6:09 PM ^
The problem for the program wasn't not taking someone in '97, it was not taking more than John Navarre after Henson came in. Navarre was mixed-to-decent in '02 and good (but with occasional accuracy issues) in '03, but he was totally unready in '01 and his struggles from that season were baggage that he carried for his entire career. The only potential alternative in '01 was Jermaine Gonzalez, whom fans clamored for on a weekly basis until he actually got a chance to come in against OSU (when Navarre had struggled horribly in what was the low point of his career) and demonstrated that he was not a real option to play QB.
Michigan had the '01 season banked on Henson coming back, and that was a mistake.
November 10th, 2021 at 2:06 PM ^
This thread is zzzzzz. Comparing Brady to any situation is plain wrong. There is no other.
November 10th, 2021 at 2:09 PM ^
If Michigan can land Dante Moore, then pressure playing JJ to keep him should go away?
November 10th, 2021 at 2:24 PM ^
I feel you, that was one of the main reasons JJ was in the game when he fumbled on consecutive drives.
November 10th, 2021 at 4:00 PM ^
And Cade was in the injury tent.
November 11th, 2021 at 12:10 PM ^
I still haven’t heard confirmation of that, do you have a link where Harbaugh said that?
November 11th, 2021 at 12:55 AM ^
Even if Moore doesn't come to Michigan I don't care if McCarthy leaves.
November 10th, 2021 at 2:09 PM ^
It's a valid question OP and the HCs, Carr & Harbaugh are handling the situation similarly but different.
Carr would insert Henson for an entire quarter, sometimes more, so that he could get a feel for the game but once he was out - he was done. Harbaugh on the other hand, is giving McCarthy plays throughout the game as a change of pace QB.
I will say having watched both play Henson was 10X the QB McCarthy is right now. People forget just how good he was - probably would've been the #1`pick in the draft if he hadnt gone over to baseball.
November 10th, 2021 at 2:24 PM ^
Freshman Henson had spot duty. Sophomore Henson had an entire quarter of each early game, but I'm not sure of why you're comparing Henson in his sophomore year to freshman McCarthy. Junior Henson was the starter, and was very good (notwithstanding some on this forum who were calling for Navarre to continue to start after he began the season as the starter because of Henson's foot injury).
November 10th, 2021 at 2:27 PM ^
Junior Henson was the starter, and was very good (notwithstanding some on this forum who were calling for Navarre to continue to start).
Uhhhh mgoblog didn't exist until 2004.
And NOBODY wanted Navarre to continue starting after the UCLA game. His limitations were obvious.
November 10th, 2021 at 8:00 PM ^
Apparently, I confused mgoblog with another site (which has since deteriorated dramatically). I recognized some of the same posters.
I agree that the UCLA game exposed Navarre's shortcomings. Which were made even more apparent in the Illinois game.
November 10th, 2021 at 2:37 PM ^
People can hate on me for this comment if they'd like but I think Henson was THE best quarterback talent wise Michigan has had in my lifetime. Great mobility, great size and passes that sliced through the air like lasers. I didn't mind the thought of him possibly being the starter in 99 because Tom Brady had a tendency to frustrate the hell out of me at times during the 98 season, especially the bowl game against Arkansas when our 2 touchdown lead became a 7 point deficit in the 4th quarter because of two horrendous interceptions. Very fortunate for us, 99 Brady was much better than 98 Brady.
But Henson's highlights are always a joy to go back and look at it. It also helped that both Brady and Henson had David Terrell and Marquise Walker to throw to.
November 10th, 2021 at 3:22 PM ^
Still amazed by that cross-field TD pass to David Terrell against Wisconsin in 2000...
November 10th, 2021 at 4:28 PM ^
Yeah, Drew Henson was the closest anyone has ever come to John Elway. Generational talent
Also, Lavarr Arrington for PSU was the model of perfection at LBer. No one has ever wore #11 better than that dude
November 10th, 2021 at 2:10 PM ^
True freshman Henson was not challenging Brady. He played in 7 games and went 19 for 45 for 5.2 yards per attempt. In his sophomore year, Lloyd started giving him a quarter in the first half. That went a little better: 51.7% passer and 6.1 yards per attempt. Brady's senior year saw him complete 61% of his passes for 7.5 yards per attempt.
What we're seeing this year is JJ put up some better numbers than Cade (8.8 vs. 8.0 yards per attempt, 158 QBR vs. 142.) Believe it or not, Cade has better stats than senior Brady. The game favors the offense more now than it did, but I think there's also an aspect of nostalgia that has us pining for the old days, when the present day is pretty damn good.
November 10th, 2021 at 2:25 PM ^
JJ doesn’t have some dickhead father threatening to pull his son if he doesn’t get enough playing time.
November 10th, 2021 at 2:30 PM ^
When referring to the G.O.A.T., please refrain from naming another individual in the same sentence... have a little respect.
TB12 has more super bowl MVP's than the other guy has NFL starts.
November 10th, 2021 at 2:34 PM ^
The way I see it playing out is next year starts with the same game plan as this year for the two of them. Depending what happens throughout the rest of the year (disclaimer: not in order of likelihood) either 1) Cade keeps the primary job, keeps improving and goes pro at the end of the season handing the reins to JJ 2) JJ wins the job outright by the end of the season and Cade transfers or 3) JJ continues to get more and more snaps but doesn't take over as the starter and then whoever wins the job in the spring stays and the other leaves.
Pretty great position to be in for next season. Will be a sad day when we have to say goodbye to one of them in scenario 2 or 3.
November 10th, 2021 at 2:38 PM ^
I've posted about this a couple of times miscellaneously on the board throughout the course of the season. A lot of posters don't like the analogy, but I think it's because they are viewing what Tom Brady has become today (i.e. best quarterback in the history of football), rather than just comparing the dynamics in a vacuum: '98 Michigan Football Season vs. '21 Michigan Football Season. When you apply the comparison this way, I think there are a lot of similarities you can see between the group of signal callers in their respective seasons.
A couple of caveats that are important to remember when drawing these comparisons: With the Brady/Henson dynamic, we are looking strictly at the 1998 season; Brady's Rs. Jr year and Henson's true freshman year**. '98 was Brady's first season as the starter (as '21 is for Cade), and quite frankly it started out pretty underwhelming (as it did for Cade in '21). Henson as an incoming freshman was, by all accounts, a top 5 overall talent nationally for football and for baseball (JJ was not the caliber of prospect Henson was - who was more Trevor Lawrence like as a prospect - but still a high blue chip). Early in Brady's tenure as the starter and throughout the course of the '98 season, there were calls for him to be benched in favor of the young gun (same is true for McCarthy in '21). Lloyd agreed that he would sprinkle in Henson for a few drives a game as a true freshman (as Harbaugh is now doing with JJ). Brady continued to struggle for the first half of the season and the calls for Henson got louder, before the "light turned on" amidst the back half of the season (which is currently trending for Cade in '21) where Michigan beat two top teams consecutively with Penn State and Wisconsin before losing to OSU in Columbus.
In that '98 season - Brady threw 323 attempts, completing 62% at 7.5 YPA, 14 TD, 10 INT. Henson threw 45 passes completing 42% at 5.2 YPA, 3 TD, 1 INT, he also ran for 65 yards and a TD. Drawing comparisons to this season - Cade is trending to a similar as Brady had, albeit with fewer interceptions: 208 attempts, completing 62% at 8.0 YPA, 9 TD, 2 INT. As for McCarthy compared to Henson '98: 33 attempts, 60%, 8.8 YPA, 3 TD, 1 INT, 46 yards rushing 1 TD.
Those comparisons are... actually pretty tight. If we are strictly comparing Brady/Henson in 1998 and McNamara/McCarthy '21, this is about as close of a quarterback dynamic comparison you can make. Where people muddy up the comparison is when they look ahead to what happened between Henson and Brady and ultimately what Brady went on to become throughout the rest of his career. It's certainly preposterous to project Cade's career would be anything close to what Brady has done, but that's not the point of the comparison. To me, it is interesting to see Cade playing through the same dynamic Brady did in his first year as a starter. And it will be interesting to see how Cade manages it juxtaposed to how the Brady/Henson era played out.
**Brady was absolutely fantastic in 1999, and clearly had separated himself from Henson. Henson, while still obviously full of potential, continued to get PT because of some arrangements and politics Carr played to earn Henson's commitments in the first place. Brady demonstrated time and again he was the better quarterback and deserving of being named the clear cut starter. This dynamic does not apply to the comparison however, because we are talking about Brady's second year as the starter which we have not seen how that will pan out between Cade and JJ during their second year in the program together.
November 10th, 2021 at 8:01 PM ^
Great post. Most people don't realize Brady's career starting at UM wasn't rainbows and unicorns right away. The offense was average to bordering on bad a good chunk of the '98 season. It came alive at the end though with the blowouts of highly ranked Wisconsin and PSU and continued to perform well against OSU.
November 10th, 2021 at 2:41 PM ^
I think out of the four of them, Brady will probably have the best NFL career. That's how gifted I am as a pundit.
November 10th, 2021 at 2:44 PM ^
I'll go out on that limb with you.
November 10th, 2021 at 2:44 PM ^
"On one hand we have Cade who isn’t a 5th year senior like Brady was, but the starter and his backup is a 5 star phenom. Brady was the starter and Drew Henson a 5 star, respectfully as a freshman coming in to take his spot. "
Brady was a 4th year junior, and Henson barely played his freshman year.
The NEXT year when Brady was a 5th year senior and Henson a sophomore is the year you are talking about.
November 10th, 2021 at 2:48 PM ^
I'd say Cade reminds me more of Brian Griese.
November 10th, 2021 at 2:49 PM ^
And here was me thinking that you were going to carefully amass the YTD stats and make a learned comparison.