Hypothetical- #1 2013 MBB vs (potentially) #1 2019 MBB
Let’s have some fun- with Duke going down, and if we take care of business over the weekend, comparisons between the Last two #1 Mich Hoops team will be made. Who you guys got (and why) in a H2H between the two best squads we’ve had in the past 20 years?
January 15th, 2019 at 1:28 AM ^
Overall, I'd take this year's top 6, and 2013's bench. In a game without foul trouble or injury, I'd take this year's team in a tight one. 2019's defensive advantage > 2013's offensive advantage IMO.
Couple of things in 2019's favor:
- Most guys have already experienced the FInal Four. They're battle-tested and experienced. 2013 was a really young team, especially for JB's system.
- This season still has a long way to go - advantage 2019. At this point in 2013, McGary and Caris weren't showing much, and Stauskas couldn't guard anyone. They all got better by tournament time. Hopefully Iggy and Johns will show similar improvement - it would be pretty scary if Iggy has a lot more in his incubator!
Matchups:
Teske over McGary - McGary was a tournament beast, but Teske's more experienced, has played great all year, and should continue to improve. Would never have believed this based on last year's Teske.
Burke over Simpson - Simpson might just make this matchup a push with his incredible D. FT shooting and clutch gene give Burke the nod.
Poole over Stauskas - Freshman Stauskas was pretty much Just A Shooter. Poole is more experienced with a far more developed all-around game. Freshman Stauskas couldn't really guard anyone.
Iggy over Robinson - Iggy's a better scorer. Frosh Robinson could jump out of the arena, but Iggy's a better ball handler and shooter/scorer.
Hardaway over Matthews - Barely. This is the closest matchup IMO. Hardaway gets the nod because he's a better shot creator and ball handler. Matthews is a better defender than Hardaway was.
Livers over Morgan - Mainly because of Livers' 3-pt. stroke. Morgan played so damn hard, and was a solid defender and rebounder. Livers has better offensive tools. Close, but Livers will probably be even better by tournament time.
Spike/Caris over Brooks - Spike had his magical game in the Final, and Caris showed flashes of what he'd become. Both were pretty limited as freshmen. Caris could guard and run, and Spike could score, but was a defensive liability. Brooks can shoot, and is ok handling Beilein's point.
Horford over Johns - Soph Horford definitely more developed than Frosh Johns.
January 15th, 2019 at 1:32 AM ^
At first I was going to say it’s clearly 13’ but after really thinking about it, it all depends on the game Trey had. The teams are pretty much a wash except at pg.
If Trey was on its 13’.
January 15th, 2019 at 1:32 AM ^
Lost in this discussion is that Michigan isn't a lock for the #1 spot even with a win Saturday. Virginia plays Va Tech (top 10) and AT Duke this week. If they win both, they'd have to jump Michigan to the top spot. They arguably should be ahead of Michigan already.
And one could reasonably make an argument to keep Duke at #1 if they beat UVa since they were missing a couple guys tonight against Syracuse. Reasonable to recognize that at full strength, they're still the best team.
I kind of want to stay out of the #1 spot to keep that edge if you can't tell.
January 15th, 2019 at 1:44 AM ^
I'm not sure how that's relevant to this discussion.
2013 Michigan was a 4 seed. It's seems likely this year's team will be a higher seed unless they go through a really rough patch.
January 15th, 2019 at 2:17 AM ^
huh? read the op. user assumes michigan will be ranked #1 in the AP poll with a win over Wisconsin this weekend. I'm saying, that's not a lock. my comment has absolutely nothing to do with seeding. entirely about rankings which are the context for this whole discussion (comparison of last two M teams to be ranked #1, potentially, in the AP poll)
January 15th, 2019 at 2:56 AM ^
My bad.
You're right, it's not a lock, but if I were a betting man I'd say a win at Wisconsin gets us the top spot. Time will tell, and frankly, in the long run it doesn't much matter.
January 15th, 2019 at 1:04 PM ^
Fair point- got a little over excited and didnt view the rest of the landscape of games this weekend. Also we have the unbiased and ultra fair Graham Couch rating Tennessee over us already.
January 15th, 2019 at 2:58 AM ^
both teams stupid good. But i would lean to 2013 by a touch. Some beasts on offense.
January 15th, 2019 at 5:25 AM ^
Not quite the OP's question, but I can't help but think that if we had Yaklich back in 2013, we would have hands down won the title.
January 16th, 2019 at 2:27 AM ^
No question in my mind. M was the most talented team that year, and that's not in hindsight, Jay Bilas deemed M the most talented team before the season started (and sure enough 6 eventually were drafted, 5 in the first round).
But they were pretty bad at defense considering the talent. A shame really. Yaklich would have had them as a top 10 defense and heavy title favorite. As it was, they needed to miracle comeback against Kansas to win anything (no reg. season title, lost first game of BTT).
I maintain that that team underachieved overall. Should have hung more banners.
January 15th, 2019 at 6:09 AM ^
Posting this thread before a trip to the Trohl Center is asking for pain.
January 15th, 2019 at 7:38 AM ^
If I was a man that believed in jinxes (jinxi??), this would be one.
January 15th, 2019 at 10:09 AM ^
i definitely debated pretty hard before posting because of the Kohl Center's awful juju and what seems to be cheap carnival sized hoops for opposing teams. Since i was bold ill do the right thing and take the heat if we stumble.
January 15th, 2019 at 6:47 AM ^
Defense wins championships, 2019 in a slug fest.
January 15th, 2019 at 8:44 AM ^
Hypothetical:
My fourth grade team vs my sixth grade team. (Both teams won the Briarwood Elementary Intramural Thumb Wrestling Championship)
Sixth Grade: We were ELITE because of one player: Fencer Tingbot. He was 5'2 the guts and glue of the Brown and Orange.
The boy was the best thumb wrestler of all time. The one weakness of the team was Larry Goobdarch, who had a midseason collapse after he became the first "transitioning" student in Briarwood history. We tried to support him, but the emotional toil was too much and he really floundered down the stretch, losing his last four battles.
More on that team and the 4th grade team in the next hypothetical thread.
January 15th, 2019 at 9:22 AM ^
Which team is coached by JB? Would he coach each team for a half?
January 15th, 2019 at 9:27 AM ^
I think people are underestimating how tough the 2013 big ten was, 4 top 10 teams and way more nba talent than what we see this year. The 2013 team was tested by the tourney run in a way the 2019 team just won’t be
January 15th, 2019 at 9:55 AM ^
The fact that we finished 4th in the BIG is telling how insanely good the conference was that year.
January 15th, 2019 at 1:41 PM ^
We'll find out once 2019 team gets into a tough stretch especially the end of the season. This year B1G is stupid good. I believe they had 11 teams on Bart Torvik top 50 rankings which is ridiculous. That's not counting Minnesota just missing the cut by 1 spot.
2013 B1G had 8 out of 10 teams at the top 50 but 5 of them are at top 15 with Iowa and Minnesota at top 25.
Both B1G conferences are strong
January 16th, 2019 at 2:44 AM ^
Not sure there was way more NBA talent (because you can't count Michigan).
OSU had none (best players: Craft, Deshaun Thomas).
Wisconsin's top minutes guys were Ben Brust and Jared Berggren. They did play freshman Sam Dekker 54% of minutes sooo, okay. Soph Frank Kaminsky played just 23% of minutes and was nowhere near the player he became.
Even MSU only had freshman Gary Harris who was good and freshman Denzel Valentine who wasn't nearly the player he'd become. They were mostly Keith Appling, Payne, Nix, Dawson and other guys that were not NBA players.
Indiana did have Zeller and Oladipo.
I will admit there's a dearth of no-brainer NBA players in the conference this year but there are a lot of deep, veteran teams so I don't think that's worse for your tourney prep. Besides, there's really only Duke with a significant talent advantage over Michigan. The other top teams - UVA, Tennesee, MSU - are similarly veteran teams without stacked rosters. And Kansas supposedly has talent but I can't every trust Bill Self.
January 15th, 2019 at 10:16 AM ^
Position by position:
Simpson v. Burke - I'd take Burke.Simpson is great on defense, not great on offense (outside of the pick and roll). Burke was NPOY for a reason.
Poole v. THJ - At this point... push? Poole had a ridiculous stretch and THJ was inconsistent, but if Poole can get back closer to his earlier production, I'd take Poole. Hardaway was as slightly better athlete IMO.
Iggy v. Stauskas - Iggy as a freshman. Stauskas was unconscious a year later but we're sticking with 2013 specifically.
Matthews v. GRIII - Matthews. His offense is meh but GRIII as a freshman wasn't quite there yet. Both great athletes. Their percentages are pretty similar from 3 but GRIII was better inside the arc.
Teske v. McGary - I'd take McGary. Teske has picked it up lately, but McGary was crazy productive and even though he's shorter, he could bump with anybody down low.
Bench: 2013 by a mile mostly because they had more of a bench. Morgan, LeVert, and Spike versus Livers and Brooks.
More often than not, it would be a close game. 3-5 points probably and 2019 would probably win a majority of those games. If there was ever a blowout, it would be 2013 going off and winning by 10 - 15.
January 15th, 2019 at 12:08 PM ^
For this to make any sense, you have to compare the January 15 version of both teams (I’ll take 2019 in that one) or wait until year end to see the finished product. 2019 could look even better than they do now if player development follows it’s usual path, especially with the bench players.
January 15th, 2019 at 1:56 PM ^
For sure if Brandon Johns can come around like Levert did at the end of the year and Dejelius can get to like Spike levels in terms of understanding the offense and being a good 3 point shooter off the bench 2019 has the opportunity to be better than 2013. But 2013 finals game version beats current 2019 team.
January 15th, 2019 at 3:06 PM ^
Michigan's defense is great this year, but the 2013 team played and beat some great defenses in the NCAA tournament (in successive games none the less). I went on Kenpom and looked at how 2013 Michigan's offense did in their last 4 games of the tournament.
Sweet 16: Kansas ended the year ranked 5th in adjusted defensive efficiency (0.875 points/possession). Michigan scored 1.14 points/possession against them.
Elite 8: Florida ended the year ranked 3rd in adjusted defensive efficiency (0.86 points/possession). Michigan scored 1.10 points/possession against them.
Final 4: Syracuse ended the year ranked 6th in adjusted defensive efficiency (0.883 points/possession). Michigan scored 1.02 points/possession against them. (Syracuse held Indiana - 2nd in offensive efficiency in 2013 - to 0.77 points/possession in the sweet 16)
Finals: Premature Pitinos (I mean Louisville) ended the year ranked 1st in adjusted efficiency (0.848 points/possession). Michigan scored 1.17 points/possession against them.
Do I think the current team could beat the 2013 team? Sure. The 2013 team's defense wasn't elite and Kansas and Louisville had no problem scoring against them. However, I think it is a bit silly to assume the current team would shut down the 2013 team. I could totally see either side winning, but if I had to pick right now I would go with 2013.
January 15th, 2019 at 3:59 PM ^
The '13 team would win.
Look at their depth and the number of NBA players on that team. Too much talent for the '19 team to overcome.
January 15th, 2019 at 9:08 PM ^
There was talk some years back about the '89 national champs playing the Fab Five in a charity game. I wish that had happened.
January 15th, 2019 at 10:02 PM ^
It’s a bit premature to rule 2019 to be of the same caliber as the 2013 team. 2013 brought home a banner, 2019 has a good chance to do so but is a long way from a banner, so I’d give the hypothetical match up edge to 2013. We still have a lot to learn about this team.