2019 - The final exam of the Harbaugh offense
Shea's back.
Harbaugh has a returning senior blue chip QB. He has boatloads of receiver talent. The offensive line, finally, appears poised to be good. He has experienced tight ends. The one starter leaving a hole, Karan Higdon, has capable backups and a top 50 prospect poised to take his place.
There's a lot of debate about what, exactly, caused the offense to play at a "B" level when it seemed to have "A" talent last season. Some people assert that Pep is the problem; others assert that the basic philosophy is wrong; perhaps it's an issue of player coaching. The theories are manifold; they are, finally, unnecessary.
We don't know what goes on in the room. But the results, ultimately, are what matter.
Next year, Harbaugh has everything he needs. Barring a series of catastrophic injuries, there is absolutely no reason that the offense shouldn't be excellent. Personally, I am optimistic that it will be. But the time is no longer "some day." The time is now.
2019 is a referendum on Harbaugh as an offensive coach.
December 21st, 2018 at 8:53 PM ^
Shea is not a pocket guy. He needs to move. He needs more RPOs and rollouts and quick hitters.
December 22nd, 2018 at 12:14 AM ^
I saw passing plays that took too long to develop. Early in the season it was more because Shea was missing the open read, or waited too long. He got better at this as the season progressed, but still, the leap from 150 yards per game passing to 250+ never really happened. Seems like they dialed Shea back just as he was starting to understand the concepts and timing of the plays. By dialing back I mean majority short passes and running the ball more to grab TOP. Maybe the coaches got more cautious later in the season when they saw the CFP light at the end of the tunnel?
December 22nd, 2018 at 8:34 AM ^
Agreed. They also got a false sense of security in the defense while it was dominating some offensively-challenged teams like MSU, Wisc, and PSU with a hurt McSorely.
It appeared to make sense to dial Shea back, control the ball, and let your defense take care of things. Think the MSU game.
Then Ohio State happened and blew up all assumptions.
Our defense wasn't what we thought. Turns out it was feasting on some really bad offenses. There were some hints of this when we played the few teams we had on the schedule that did not have a hurt / broken QB.
But our offense was not prepared to win games on its own in a shootout.
We struggled against Ohio State in the first half, but through turnover luck we were within 5 points entering the second half. It was clear that defensive stops were precious. If we were going to win, it was going to have to be in a shootout where one or two stops makes the difference.
Our defense got that precious stop on the opening OSU drive of the second half. It was in the hands of the offense now to keep pace and score points.
But we went scoreless in the 3rd quarter. Uh oh.
We entered the 3rd quarter down 5 points. We exited it down 22 points. Game over.
December 21st, 2018 at 8:16 PM ^
Everywhere Pep Hamilton has coached the offensive numbers start to go down. It's not too hard to look up his history.
December 21st, 2018 at 8:18 PM ^
Harbaugh is a below average offensive mind. He needs to ditch his entire approach and go get a young coach with a madden 15 year olds sense of what play calling.
Harbaugh is the pretty good at a lot of what it takes to be elite but he his weaknesses are such huge ones, that I don’t believe he can ever take the team over the hump.
- Play calling
- ability to recognize his weaknesses
- humble enough to let go and delegate to someone smarter and better
I hope he changes and he can improve what needs fixing.
December 21st, 2018 at 8:23 PM ^
I'm not sold on the OL in pass protection, but I agree with the rest of the points.
December 21st, 2018 at 8:27 PM ^
The players are there. It's all on Harbaugh in 2019.
December 21st, 2018 at 8:39 PM ^
Shea (and Gentry) had his worst game this year against tOSU, and probably Notre Dame. His timing was just "off" on the majority of his throws, and he didn't seem to be seeing the field well. Improve his performance against better, faster defenses, cut down the early down sacks, be more decisive and unafraid to throw deep with confidence that our receivers will win 50-50 balls, and 2019 will be a great year.
December 21st, 2018 at 8:50 PM ^
Meanwhile Ohio State's best players always have their best games of the year against Michigan . . . Zeke Elliott, Haskins, the Bosa's, and on and on.
*sigh*
We make fun of them for stupid corny shit like crossing out all the "M"s on signs the week before The Game, but it works. They come into The Game focused and hungry even if the rest of the season they are too disinterested to show up and get blown out by teams like Purdue.
When was the last time a Michigan QB had his best performance of the year against Ohio State? 2000 Henson? Maybe 2003 Navarre? 2006 Hene?
It's been a long time.
December 21st, 2018 at 8:58 PM ^
Maybe because Ohio St always has a low strength of schedule they are more able at the end of the season than Michigan?
December 21st, 2018 at 9:12 PM ^
Who did we have that was so much harder than them?
We had ND the first game way back in September. We both played the same Big Ten East schedule. Wisconsin was not Wisconsin this year.. They had Purdue which might have face-planted us too. They played a hard-fought draining overtime game right before they played us.
They had key injuries to key players.
They weren't getting away with anything.
December 21st, 2018 at 9:28 PM ^
I can see their schedule isn't as tough as Michigan's.
December 21st, 2018 at 9:29 PM ^
Seriously ?
December 22nd, 2018 at 5:47 AM ^
I'm just saying maybe. Isn't it possible? Ohio St and Alabama never have schedules that are amongst the toughest in college football. Tom Osborne always made schedules like that at Nebraska too. Maybe tougher schedules are hard on a team?
December 22nd, 2018 at 10:03 AM ^
What does any of that have to do with getting up for your main rival in the last game of the year. I went back and looked at their previous schedules and they've played at least one top tier OOC team every year: Texas, Oklahoma, USC, etc....all home & away and it goes back to the early 2000s. They played TCU this year but keep in mind schedules are made out years ahead and TCU was a power before this year, Same with Virginia Tech when OSU scheduled them. They play a home-away with Oregon in 2020-2021 and ND in 2022-2023. They play a very decent OOC schedule. Every bit as good as ours if not better.
My point: when we lose the last 14/15 the excuses need to stop. Maybe it's us and personally I'm effing sick and tired of listening to the inbred OSU fans. Half of them have to use their fingers and toes to count to 20 and it's time to stop their BS - AND STOP OUR BS EXCUSES
December 22nd, 2018 at 10:03 AM ^
What does any of that have to do with getting up for your main rival in the last game of the year. I went back and looked at their previous schedules and they've played at least one top tier OOC team every year: Texas, Oklahoma, USC, etc....all home & away and it goes back to the early 2000s. They played TCU this year but keep in mind schedules are made out years ahead and TCU was a power before this year, Same with Virginia Tech when OSU scheduled them. They play a home-away with Oregon in 2020-2021 and ND in 2022-2023. They play a very decent OOC schedule. Every bit as good as ours if not better.
My point: when we lose the last 14/15 the excuses need to stop. Maybe it's us and personally I'm effing sick and tired of listening to the inbred OSU fans. Half of them have to use their fingers and toes to count to 20 and it's time to stop their BS - AND STOP OUR BS EXCUSES
December 21st, 2018 at 9:36 PM ^
To be fair, we often make fun of them because of how frequently they miss ‘M’s.
December 21st, 2018 at 9:42 PM ^
When you don't see the word "academics" very often, you're going to miss the "m" in it.
December 21st, 2018 at 9:05 PM ^
I agree that 2019 is a very important year for Harbaugh’s offense.
However, I think too often fans see and criticize things without the full picture of the why’s and wherefore’s of what goes on in the meeting rooms and on the practice field. Everything that a coach calls has a reason based on what the opposition’s scheme, but also how his players execute their own scheme.
In watching Michigan’s offense, it looked to me that there were three main factors influencing the play calling:
1) Shea’s developing ability to read a defense, and chemistry with WR/TE’s;
2) Concern over the OL’s pass blocking; and,
3) Aversion to turnovers.
The season was by no means a clusterfuck, and showed Shea showed why he was so highly rated out of high school. But, it felt like a “feeling out” type season often times. Add the fact that the defense was, for the most part, near impenetrable, and mix in the fact that QB’s getting injured and turning it over too much caused an 8 win season just a year before, and conservative play calling shouldn’t have been a surprise.
I think 2019 will be very different. First, Shea will be in far better command of the offense — did we see any audibles? He won’t be thinking his way through unfamiliar reads, his chemistry with WR’s will be more established, and the OL should be better at pass protection. Further, I think Harbaugh has more confidence in the back-up QB’s, and perhaps less in his defense. All that, should add up to a more explosive offense.
I know it’s all the rage to shit on Pep and Harbaugh, but always try to remember that the coaches see what we don’t.
December 21st, 2018 at 10:48 PM ^
Good shit, Sten. Nailed it.
I think the biggest reasons for optimism is the combination of year 2 of Warinner and what should be an experienced and solid O-Line for the most part, coupled with year 2 of Shea who literally had no playbook at his previous school and had to tackle a complex offense one game a time this year.
If we're confident in pass protection and the full offensive scheme can be deployed from game one, there's no reason to think we won't improve offensively by some margin.
December 22nd, 2018 at 12:15 AM ^
This is the most intelligent thread by far in this entire post.
I would also add that you couldn’t watch the OSU-Maryland game and not think that you should be able to run the ball a lot on the Buckeyes.
December 22nd, 2018 at 4:25 PM ^
So because coaches see things we don't and have reasons for what they do, and therefore, as you implied, they are always right and all coaches are good, there is no such thing as bad coaching or bad play calling or bad decision making. There are no disparities in coaching acumen, ability or performance. Got it.
December 21st, 2018 at 9:06 PM ^
The bowl game is the referendum.
December 21st, 2018 at 9:19 PM ^
Much as I hope for a 2008-Capital-One-Bowl-against-Florida epiphany, I don't think we'll get that.
Those were 4th and 5th year seniors that were ready for that shift (and were planning to do it earlier in the season until Hene got hurt).
We'll need the offseason period to see any big changes to the current offense.
December 21st, 2018 at 9:20 PM ^
Last box to check next year: beat Ohio
nothing else matters next year
December 21st, 2018 at 9:30 PM ^
It may be just an old myth that Bo used to do something every week to prepare for Ohio State (there are some guys on here that would know for sure), but if ever there was a season to do just that, it would be now.
Whatever you do, it needs to be about beating Ohio State.
Design the offense to beat Ohio State. Design the defense to beat Ohio State.
If we get steamrolled by Wisconsin we get steamrolled by Wisconsin. If we lose a 49-45 shootout to Indiana, we lose a shootout. Whatever.
Do nothing that is not about ensuring you can beat Ohio State.
December 21st, 2018 at 9:45 PM ^
What's crazy is that in 2016 and 2017 it seemed like the coaches did just that. The gameplans were very good, they just didn't have the personnel to execute it at the level required to beat OSU. This year it was the complete opposite. Makes no sense.
December 22nd, 2018 at 8:43 AM ^
I think they got a false sense of confidence in what the defense was actually able to do while it was feasting on some really bad Big Ten offenses.
They didn't expect to have to win a shootout game against Ohio State, and didn't have a well-rep'd Plan B to do it.
December 22nd, 2018 at 8:43 AM ^
Duplicate post.
December 22nd, 2018 at 8:43 AM ^
What? Another duplicate post.
I'd post Kate Upton dancing in a bikini if we were allowed to do it. You'll just have to close your eyes and imagine . . .
Hey, where's the bikini?
December 21st, 2018 at 9:23 PM ^
If Harbaugh and this program want to go from being a perennial top 10 team to being a perennial playoff team, they need to get an elite offense. The days of "defense wins championships" are over. Look at us vs. Oklahoma: our offense is way, way better than their defense is and yet they're in the playoff because their offense is unstoppable. Look at the playoff teams. All of them run wide open passing spreads of different varieties. They go for homerun balls all the time, they attack every part of the field. Michigan has recruited the talent for that scheme, yet they choose to run into stacked boxes over and over again for "body blows" as if an elite team is going to get tired out by 2 yard runs on second and nine. If Harbaugh can't produce an elite, top 10 S&P+ offense next year, he needs to find himself a Joe moorehead and give up control of the offense.
December 21st, 2018 at 9:38 PM ^
The best thing that could happen to us is that Oklahoma beats Alabama and does it on offense.
Demonstrate that a B+ offense is not enough to win championships anymore.
Michigan can recruit the talent to have an A+ offense, we just need to decide we want one.
December 21st, 2018 at 9:38 PM ^
Agree 100%. For some reason he thinks he can pound it against the OSUs and other elites and get away with it. Not going to work any more. And then when we get down a couple of scores or so, we can't catch up. Here's a news flash for him; you're not going to wear OSU out - they're deeper than us. He needs to get a young bright minded, offensive coordinator and turn the offense over to him. Sort of like what Urban did with Ryan Day these last couple of years. And like Stoops did with Lincoln Riley before he retired.
December 22nd, 2018 at 8:51 AM ^
And like Franklin did with Joe Moorhead. And like even Nick Saban did.
It's not an embarrassment to get some good help.
December 22nd, 2018 at 12:06 PM ^
“For some reason he thinks he can pound it against the OSUs and other elites and get away with it.”
That’s been the Michigan tradition since 1969. The default assumption ever since then has been that Michigan's athletes are better than everybody else's, so it's simply unnecessary for us to change things up in big games against top teams—I.E., even if they know what we're going to do, they can't stop us anyhow.
Of course, a brief glance at our offensive output over the years against that top competition shows, more often than not, a marked decrease in our offensive potency. Yet for some reason, successive Michigan coaching staffs have never concluded that giving the opponent the luxury of being able to anticipate what we're going to do on offense might have something to do with an inability to score enough points.
It's fundamentally a problem of arrogance.
Shortly before the Rose Bowl against USC after the 2003 season, Michigan DC Jim Herrmann said this to ESPN:
"Michigan defensive coordinator Jim Herrmann said that USC's quick passes to the wideouts on the wing, which the Trojans use to give their receivers room to make defenders miss, calls for no special tactics.
"We have to get numbers to the ball," Herrmann said. "Those are 'party' plays. There goes the ball. There's a party out there. Go to it. Don't be late. The receivers don't like to catch the ball and get hit."
What's notable about that statement are two things: there's no necessity for Michigan to change anything up for USC, and the USC receivers don't like to get hit. The latter point has been part of the Michigan assumption about PAC-8/10/12 conference teams for almost 50 years: it's a finesse conference that doesn't like to play a physical brand of football like the teams in the BIG. Once we hit 'em in the mouth a few times, they'll wilt.
So in the actual game in the real world, USC's receivers ran over, around, and through the Michigan defense. They made a mockery of what had been a pretty good defense.
And on defense, did USC use the same tactics it had used all season that Michigan studied on film?
"Tatupu said the Trojans ran five new blitzes on the Wolverines. Coach Pete Carroll refused to reveal what he saw that made him come so hard with the corners. Whatever he saw, corners Marcell Almond and Will Poole got the first two sacks, and on the opening drive. Poole sacked John Navarre again on the first play of the second quarter, running forever before he reached the quarterback.
"When [Michigan] said, 'We better take care of the corner pressure,' that really heated up the guys inside," Carroll said. "We really could have easily had 12 sacks."
The heads of the offensive linemen turned into Lazy Susans. The rest of them looked a little lazy and a little Susan, too. Michigan gave up 15 sacks all season, but nine on Thursday.
"It was a guessing game," Michigan offensive tackle Tony Pape said. "They usually rushed with their four down guys. This time they didn't. They had a lot of five- and six-man blitzes. It really wasn't the blitzing guy who made the tackles. It was the guys going one-on-one. You don't want to give up nine sacks. That's a terrible statistic."
So USC, in spite of having physical talent at least as good as Michigan's, still decided to change things up with their pass rush in ways that Michigan hadn't seen and wasn't prepared for.
So far it appears as though Harbaugh is solidly in the Bo-Mo-Carr mold when it comes to big games against elite-level competition. We're so good that the element of surprise is unnecessary, even on the road in Columbus. Which means there's no point in having a Plan B to turn to if Plan A ain't working, whether it's on offense or defense. Just dance with who brung you.
December 21st, 2018 at 10:06 PM ^
Michigan has recruited the talent for that scheme, yet they choose to run into stacked boxes over and over again for "body blows"
Don’t construe my continued commenting as disagreement, just more of a nuanced discussion.
Yes, we did see that to some extent. But, what we also saw, if you remember, were a lot of those explosive plays that went begging. A few hookups stand out, like the pass to DPJ vs MSU, but a lot were missed or never even thrown. I think part of the issue with fan perception is that Shea was so much better than anything we’ve seen in such a long time that it’s easy to gloss over the missed opportunities.
If Shea dropped perfect dimes in on those deep passes, teams wouldn’t be so willing to stack the box, and in turn, the running game and underneath passing would open up. We got a glimpse of Shea becoming the passer we all want him to be vs OSU with two beautiful jump ball passes to Nico for TD’s. Unfortunately, several of his other beautiful passes were dropped.
Shea is evolving as a passer and the passing game will evolve with him. Also, I got the sense that Harbaugh really pushed the run scheme from the OL standpoint this season. Again, what does he see behind closed doors? He saw an OL needing and identity that struggled in pass pro and run blocking, a new QB that needed to evolve as a passer and not in full command of the offense, a Sr. RB able able to tote the rock 30+ times a game, and an elite defense. He made his choice, stuck with it, and even though it had limitations, developed a SIGNIFICANTLY better offense than the previous year.
December 21st, 2018 at 9:48 PM ^
In my mind it's pretty simple what has to be done next year. Against the good defenses, stop running it on every first down. Just stop. Please stop. Mix it up. Make it 50/50. You lose your featured back to the NFL and you aren't going to pound against the good teams with Evans, Tru or Turner on your first downs when they know that's what you do 100% of the time. Just erase it from your minds. Start mixing it up the very first game. Make teams ready for it. This team will have 3 very talented junior receivers that should be on that field every play and being targeted. Your opponents should be gearing up to stop that position group more than anyone on the field every game. McKeon and Gentry auditioned this year and those auditions failed in the game that mattered most. They don't have the speed to beat the good defensive backs and they don't have the power to truly give you an edge in your running game. I doubt they get way better in a years time. Sorry boys. With experienced Shae back now, you put the ball in his hands and those receivers to win games. This team should be working on making that offense an elite passing team until this point next year. Plain and simple. You take advantage of your personnel and where your strength is. You put your team in the best position to succeed and that is maximizing Nico, Tarik and Donny. You also give the kids what they want and bring in that great talent by showing what you are willing to do if you have the talent to sling it. Just once Michigan football, change your ways and do what's in your best interest and not in the best interest of past team's identities. Sling that fucking ball all over the field. Go Blue!!!
December 21st, 2018 at 11:37 PM ^
Start mixing it up the very first game.
Like he did vs ND, in the very first game? They came out throwing. How’d that go? Shea was sacked repeatedly. What now? Same with the Northwestern game. Sacks, missed throws, punts and 17-0 after 3 possessions. Harbaugh never had confidence in his OL in pass pro situations, and he had a QB still learning to run an offense that actually has a playbook, and who struggled to make reads and couldn’t audible.
Both the OL and QB should improve, significantly.
December 21st, 2018 at 10:23 PM ^
Why wait until next year? Why not start with the bowl game? Dress rehearsal.
December 21st, 2018 at 10:36 PM ^
Fire Pep
December 21st, 2018 at 10:46 PM ^
Agree. Throw the fucking ball please
December 21st, 2018 at 11:04 PM ^
Should be better and will be better if pass protection is solid. That wasn't always the case this year and may have lead to a more conservative approach.
December 22nd, 2018 at 3:00 AM ^
We say this every year. 2018 was “Harbaugh finally has his qb” and we still didn’t get it done. So sick so sick of being tired and oh so tired of being sick
December 22nd, 2018 at 9:48 AM ^
Step away, go listen to some Fishbone and think about some real problems.
Sick and tired over 18-22 year olds playing a game ain't good.
December 22nd, 2018 at 5:33 AM ^
Charrbonet is key. The other rbs are just guys
December 22nd, 2018 at 6:06 AM ^
here's my hot take: after the blame the offense got this year, and the number of points the D gave up, if M loses next year at home there is no number of points M can score where this fan base will let the offense off the hook.
M loses shootout 84-77 in Ann Arbor.
"The offense only scored 49 in the 1st half and couldn't keep up with the OSU scoring. That's on the offense."
"We know coming in that the offense was the more experienced side of the ball and had to lean on an experienced Shea, WRs and OL. They didn't get it done."
"Too many runs on 3rd and medium, have to answer the OSU TDs on the following drive."
"Pep and JH just didn't go for the throat offensively."
"Should have onside kicked after every score in the 2nd half - this game is on Harbaugh not trusting the offense in his 5th year"
"Route trees were garbage in that one drive we didn't score."
"Sure, they were 12/14 on 3rd down conversions, but those two missed opportunies killed us. Have to keep the ball and score there."
"Plus, we only had 14 3rd downs, but OSU only had 9. Need to do better on 1st and 2nd down playcalling."
"DPJ should have had 200 yards on OSUs D. Target him more."
"uuhhhh, DPJ has 247 yards today."
"I'm mean receiving yards - only had 175"
"oh yeah, my bad, you're right. Fire Pep."
December 22nd, 2018 at 9:02 AM ^
The offense went scoreless the entire third quarter against Ohio State.
We entered the second half down 5 points with still a chance to win. Then the defense got an elusive stop on Ohio State's opening drive of the second half. We're in this!
Time for the offense to step up . . .
Zero 3rd quarter points. Game over.
I don't think legit criticisms of the offense are just us being too picky.
December 22nd, 2018 at 7:08 AM ^
Harbaughs O will work against lesser talented teams and usually did. Then we played the assholes to the south. With, arguably, the best receiving trio in college there’s no reason we didn’t air the dam ball out once in awhile. Watching us play the buckeyes like we were up by 7 and grinding out the clock was some of the worst coaching I’ve seen from Harbaugh. He in no way had his team prepared for a shootout, while Urbans O was in more than one this season. The offense has to evolve, or I fear we’re going to be heartbroken a game or two every season.
December 22nd, 2018 at 7:21 AM ^
While I do agree with what OP is saying, it seems like this exact post has been written almost word for word the past couple of years. I will always be UM fan, expectations have been tempered these past few years though. I guess I'll believe it when I see it and when the clock shows all zeros with UM up against the bucknuts. Until then I will keep those tempered expectations and be happy with where the program is.
December 22nd, 2018 at 8:27 AM ^
My hope is we no longer feel like we have to play not to get Shea injured. Lets just run the offense in the most effective way and rep that all year regardless of whether that's manball, RPO, or spread it out. Just get an identity, get good at it, and if folks go down so be it. We have capable backups at every position now.