How far we’ve come; how far to go

Submitted by RJWolvie on November 28th, 2018 at 6:32 AM

Michigan football these last 4 years are best 4 years’ record since 1997-2000. (Look it up) And we were a flat-out dumpster fire, losing to everyone not just rivals, for all but 1 year of the last 8.

JH’s record against the better teams in Big10:

PSU 3-1, Wisky 2-1, MSU 2-2*, Iowa 0-1

 OSU 0-4, ND 0-1, Bowls: 1-2

This bowl game looms pretty large: 2-2 looks much more like on-track upward and 1-3 seems much more like “among the better of the rest”.

Look at that record against better teams and overall again, and compare: Excepting 1997, this IS, sadly, “back”. We ARE back, if we mean that literally. 10-3/11-2 has been our cap except that one year in 1997 for 50+ years.

So, what we really mean is we want to be better than “back”, and specifically we want to be competing for championships every year like we used to do (when only OSU & UM were consistently any good at all, and OSU was not so far ahead of the rest of the Big, tho occasionally stumbling, as they are now). And: damn straight! those should be our goals.

And we have a long way to go yet for those higher goals, obviously. But, “Harbaugh should go” b/c 0-4 vs OSU and “hasn’t won big game”? Personally, I think that’s insanity; willfully blind to just how low we were before he got here, what exactly UM has done since at least 2006/7, actually. He was hired to turn that shit-storm around and start competing for championships again. Part I: accomplished. Part II: long way to go (almost competed for a moment here this season, but that was apparently a mirage). And besides: fact is, JH & UM is the best we’re ever going to have, so if it isn’t good enough, nothing will be. If JH goes, UM will regress.

Anyway: is it disappointing we aren’t farther on Part II yet? Sure. But, you’re kidding yourself if you thought we we’re anything other than a dumpster fire since at least 2007, and you’re forgetting that we were only ever a 10-3/11-2 peak team before that, except that 1 magical year. We want more now, and we should, and we want to beat our top rival again (more often than just when they’re a sanctioned basket case), and we should.

So long way to go for Part II: offering Klingsbury a pile of $$ to take OC from Hamilton & McElwain (& JH) would be a great start on that.

1VaBlue1

November 28th, 2018 at 8:41 AM ^

The offense doesn't need "spread concepts" to get the ball outside, it already has plenty of tools to do so.  But it certainly does need to rethink the way it spreads the ball around.  Harbaugh uses the pass as nothing more than a constraint play that the run game sets up and allows.  Instead, he needs to look at it more like a base play and use various pass plays to setup run constraints.  While he does call a pretty balanced game, it's very clear that passes are constraints - something used to change things up.  That needs to change - run and pass alike should be base plays.

The WR's are so under-utilized in the Harbaughffense that it borders on criminal.  As are a myriad of other passes (slants, wheels, TE seams...)  The tools are there, the aggressive 'go for the throat always and forever' play calling is not.

JamesBondHerpesMeds

November 28th, 2018 at 8:00 AM ^

I’m still perplexed by these hot takes suggesting dumping nearly 40 points on Ohio state - and not getting 62 dumped on us - is the real culprit.

i would give Don Brown an ultimatum before firing Pep. Full stop.

MGoStrength

November 28th, 2018 at 8:35 AM ^

i would give Don Brown an ultimatum before firing Pep. Full stop.

IDK man, this was one game.  Isn't it possible it was an outlier?  He had a bad game against PSU last year and this year they dominated them.  I'm sure Brown knows he must do better against them, but lets see what he does next year.  And, doesn't execution have something to do with it?  We all know his system is reliant on getting to the QB.  If the DTs can beat their man it gives the offense the ability to double the ends.  If we just don't have the personal to get home quick enough against a great throwing QB with lots of weapons, what do you do?  That was PSU last year and OSU this year.  Maybe his system needs adjustment with those type of offenses?

MGoStrength

November 28th, 2018 at 11:05 AM ^

I have to assume coaches have ongoing conversations on how things went, right?  I doubt you give an ultimatum to your best assistant.  What if he says "eff off I'm out of here"?  Also, Mattison has done a lot.  He developed Winovich from an offensive player.  He turn potential into production in Wormley & Charlton.  He developed Glasgow into an all conference player.  He turned Hurst into an all american.  His track record is there.  I think we just have a whole in the depth and recruiting of the DTs right now.  Solomon getting hurt didn't help and Mone never really fully developed.  Dwumfor and Kemp are just guys.  Smith and Hinton are coming in with lots of potential.  I think this problem fixes itself.

PopeLando

November 28th, 2018 at 9:56 AM ^

Two reasons for that I think:

1) We know - or think we know - all the reasons why the defense collapsed. And TBH, I think we all trust Don Brown enough to fix it. He was adjusting all game, and got smacked with counters that OSU had prepared for. We knew OSU's offense was good.

2) The offense, OTOH, was just a massive WTF against a vulnerable defense. I think people, myself included, are still flabbergasted at the choices that Pep and Harbaugh made. During the "competitive" portion of the game, it seemed like our offense wasn't aware that they had to score to win. The creative portions of our playbook went away, very little that could be counted as "new" was debuted, and damned if we didn't light downs on fire by running Higdon straight at the nearest LB. Also, as another thread demonstrated, we were incredibly predictable by personnel groups: any time there were fewer than 3 WRs on the field, we ran almost every time. 

Watson can only run so fast. But our limitations on offense almost seemed deliberate. That's the difference. Just my opinion. 

SBGraves66

November 28th, 2018 at 2:16 PM ^

Right on PopeLando.  It isn't that JH or Pep haven't developed a potentially explosive offense, it's that they seldom opt to use it.

The one area that we had a huge advantage over OSU was on deep pass plays.  We had our 6'3' or more WRs going against a bunch of less than average DBs ranging in size from 5'9" to 6'1".  We scored twice going deep (should have been 3 but for Gentry's 'scape-drop') and we dain to take advantage of this discrepency when a win was still within reach.

Whoever was calling the plays should have capitalized on this advantage on our opening set of downs after halftime.  A score then could have substantially changed the momentum of the game.

MoCarrBo

November 28th, 2018 at 8:02 AM ^

Also I think it's hilarious people denigrate the Big Ten in Bo and Carrs era when they didn't get to play Rutger and Maryland every year. They also didn't have the benefit of making the playoffs with a loss. To when a Natty you had to go undefeated which even today is nearly impossible. 

 

With the benefit of a playoff and not having to go to 3000 milea Pasadena every year how many National title games does Bo play in?

 

Lastly considering Ohio State has won like 80% of the Big Ten titles the last 20 years should it be Big One and Little 9? 

swalburn

November 28th, 2018 at 8:07 AM ^

I also don't get the Kingsbury idea.  I think we need more of a tweak.  We should use a little more spread, RPO and continue to have an athlete at QB.  I think Clemson is who we should be looking at for ideas.  They are pummeled OSU and are physical on both lines.  When they are at their best they have an elite type at QB.  Also, they don't recruit like OSU or Alabama.

1VaBlue1

November 28th, 2018 at 8:49 AM ^

Two things here:

1) The obsession with Kingsbury needs to end.  He's been a (mostly) successful head coach at a decent P5 team in a tough conference.  He is not going to step down to be the OC anywhere.  Unless he jumps to the NFL, he'll be a head coach somewhere next year, or will be unemployed until he gets another HC job.

2) Thinking Michigan, or any team, is "capped" at a certain record is stoopid.  Show me the rule that says we cannot win more than any number picked out of the thin air in somebody's ass, and I'll agree.  Until that happens, fuck off - any team can win 15 in a row.  Ask UCF...

andidklein

November 28th, 2018 at 8:50 AM ^

06 was an outlier as was 97. Lloyd had a senior stacked team in 06. Any idiot could have won in ‘97 with that team (thanks to Gary Moeller for most of those guys). We are right where we should be. We can improve, people need to be patient. 

TK

November 28th, 2018 at 9:16 AM ^

Not to go all WD with the stats but 99-02 we were 37-12, which is a better record than 38-13. Unless we are going just off number of wins. 

Blue in PA

November 28th, 2018 at 9:16 AM ^

Yup......  We all expected magic and yet what we've gotten is year over year improvement.  This team is light years ahead of the program that Jimmy took over.  If we continue to improve we will be the Big 10 Champs, soon.   

The last game was a large missed opportunity, but a 10-2 season, being one of the top 10 teams in the nation, is an accomplishment.

 

Onward, Go Blue!

Blue in PA

November 28th, 2018 at 9:47 AM ^

Well, our one conference loss was a double digit loss to a top 10 team we should be able to beat.  Their one conference loss was a 29 point loss to an unranked team.

They were actually beat down worse, by a lesser team, to be honest.

jjelliso

November 28th, 2018 at 9:19 AM ^

I was pretty disheartened by something I heard on when Ira on WTKA played some snippets from Harbaugh's radio show.  Jim and Jack were treating the loss as if it was just random chance and they just happened to catch OSU on a bad day, rather than that there were any major issues to solve.  Doesn't give me much hope that there are going to be any adjustments going for.

smwilliams

November 28th, 2018 at 10:56 AM ^

And maybe it was just a bad day at the office. Here's the list of every team ranked in the Top 10 that lost a game at home this year.

BYU at #6 Wisconsin

#12 LSU at #7 Auburn

#4 Ohio State at #9 Penn State 

MSU at #8 Penn State

#1 Alabama at #3 LSU

#6 Georgia at #9 Kentucky

#16 Washington at #8 Washington State

That's 7 games total. 

Hey, you know that Georgia team we yearn to be like? The one tough road game they had all year was against LSU. They lost by 20. 

It's unfortunate that the two years Michigan could've beaten Ohio State they played them in Columbus instead of Ann Arbor. 

I'm not ready to run a coach that has three 10-win seasons in 4 years out of town because he lost in South Bend and Columbus to Top 10 teams. 

Mongo

November 28th, 2018 at 10:33 AM ^

Iron sharpens iron.  Harbaugh and Brown know what they need to beat OSU. The talent and depth is building, but we are not there (elite) yet. The culture, though, has been established. 

We need faster, more elite cover guys on slots. We need to upgrade at DT and replace Gary/Winovich.  Ross will replace Bush, but we need an upgrade at OLB.  If both Hill and Long depart, that is going to be a tough one to handle as it appears only Thomas will be ready. The defense is in rebuild mode, but the depth seems to be there to get a solid unit on the field. 

We should be awesome at WR next year and need to make passing a base play. The RB situation with Higdon gone is not there for consistent power football, so we need to be prepared to pass more often to win football games in 2019.  We need Shea to stay another year to make that more wide-open offense elite. We need Coach Ed to stay and develop the OL further ... it now has a great foundation and enough new blood to create a really strong unit. The offense has big upside next year if Shea returns.

2019 will be different than 2018.  We rode a very talented defense to success in 2018.  Next season the offense will need to become much more dynamic to compete for the B1G, as the defense is not likely to be as dominate.  I think we need coaching stability and just have them dedicated to taking our guys up another notch in development.  The progress from 2017 to 2018 was very strong in my opinion.  If that can grow again by a similar amount, we can compete again for a B1G in 2019.  OSU will not be nearly as strong in 2019 ... Haskins and almost all of those elite WRs will be gone to the NFL and the defense will be meh again.

The future is ascending and we are on the right track. Next year we get ND, MSU and OSU at home.  I am damn excited to see our team compete in 2019.

Go Blue !!!

michgoblue

November 28th, 2018 at 10:04 AM ^

While we are all losing our collective minds over this weekend's loss, if one were to step back, this season, and JH's entire tenure, have been a massive success:

  • 10 win in 3 of his first 4 seasons
  • The one season with under ten wins was played with our third string QB, and almost all true freshmen receivers.
  • If not for perhaps the flukiest play of all time, we would be 3-1 against Sparty, at a time when they are/were at a program pinnacle
  • Annual top-10 defenses

The one flaw is that we can't beat OSU.  But, and while this may sound like making excuses, what people need to recognize is that OSU is currently at a historic high for their program, and that is saying a lot given how good they have been for so long.  Sure, they lose an occasional game every season to an inferior team (when they are clearly dialing it in and looking ahead), but over the past 4 years, OSU has been a juggernaut that is only a half of a step behind Alabama.  Their recruiting is off the charts and they are coached by one of the top 5 college football coaches of all time (who also happens to lack any ethics, which probably doesn't hurt on the recruiting front).

Bottom line - JH is doing an amazing job, but unfortunately, our biggest rival is winning at a historic pace, and because that rival is in our division, we are annually blocked from playing in the Big Ten Championship Game.  This make it appear that we are worse than we are.  If we were to compare out program over the past four years to other top tier teams, aside from Alabama, OSU, Clemson (which did not break through until Dabo's 7th season) and ND (which has had up and down years and plays a weak schedule), who else has been more successful in the aggregate?  Add in where the program was before Harbaugh took over, and JH's tenure is nothing short of a great success so far.

jackw8542

November 28th, 2018 at 10:15 AM ^

Bo Schembechler's teams won 79.6% of their games.  Going into the OSU game, JH was at 76%, not much worse, and after next year he will probably be about on the same pace.  We hope he will do better, but I am happy with his standards for his players and his approach to the game.  I doubt UM could do better, and I would certainly rather have JH than Meyer or Saban, as their baggage is not acceptable.

lhglrkwg

November 28th, 2018 at 12:00 PM ^

Really all of the consternation about Harbaugh is only because we haven't beaten OSU. Rival fanbases get their yucks in about 'never finished higher than 3rd in the east' and 'can't beat their rivals' because they just like to laugh at our expense. If Harbaugh had managed to beat OSU in 2016 or 2017, the agony of this year is a good bit less because that particular monkey would've already been off our back

Everything else Harbaugh has done has been great, except for the Ohio problem

WGoNerd

November 28th, 2018 at 10:29 AM ^

I can't be the only person that saw this thread title and thought, "There's a line where the sky meets the sea, it calls meeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!"

I know I'm not the only one here with kids.

lilpenny1316

November 28th, 2018 at 10:38 AM ^

Klingsbury has NFL teams inquiring about him (I wish the Lions were one).

All Harbaugh has to do is open up the playbook he already has.  I still think the Wisconsin game was one of the best called games in JH's tenure here.  Spread with short passes on early downs, read option sprinkled in.  It was a masterful game plan.  

Unless he steals the Dantonio weather machine, he will need to open it up against spread passing teams.

Champeen

November 28th, 2018 at 10:50 AM ^

"offering Klingsbury "

I think this would be short term suicide.  Everything is in place/setup for a pro-style Harbaugh offense.  I do not think we would have the right personell for this change, and would take a step back before taking 2 steps forward.  We don't have another 3 years to wait.

Just my opinion.

GeorgetownTom

November 28th, 2018 at 11:11 AM ^

You are correct. It would probably take 2 recruiting cycles to get the personnel needed to run an air raid or spread and shred type offense. 

However, do you see Michigan overtaking OSU in the next two years without any changes? Even if they get by OSU, do you see them having any success in the playoff where multiple OSU type teams await?

 

chatster

November 28th, 2018 at 10:54 AM ^

Talent Comparison with Ohio State -- Defense

For one game, "The Game", Ohio State's defense was superior to Michigan's defense. Who knows whether that might've been different had (a) Rashan Gary and Chase Winovich been fully healthy, (b) Aubrey Solomon been available to play, (c) Devin Bush and David Long not been injured during the game, (d) Nick Bosa been available for Ohio State, and (e) Don Brown adjusted sooner or planned better for Ohio State's offense?

But at least for this entire season, the talent comparison favored Michigan.

Michigan had six players (first teamers Chase Winovich, Rashan Gary, Devin Bush, LaVert Hill, David Long and second teamer Josh Metellus) named by the conference’s coaches to the All-Conference first and second defensive teams. Bush was named the Big Ten’s Defensive Player of the Year and Linebacker of the Year.  Six other Michigan players (Bryan Mone, Josh Ross, Josh Uche, Khaleke Hudson and Tyree Kinnel) received honorable mention from the coaches.

Ohio State had only two players (first teamer DL Dre’Mont Jones and second teamer DL Chase Young) selected by the coaches to the All-Conference first and second defensive teams, although they had eight of their players receive honorable mention from the coaches.

The media was less kind to Michigan, naming only three players to the first team (Winovich,  Bush and Hill), two to the second team (Gary and Metellus) and one to the third team (Long), while giving honorable mention to four others (Hudson, Kinnel, Uche and Kwity Paye).

The media placed Ohio State’s Jones and DB Jordan Fuller on he second team and Young on the third team, while giving honorable mention to seven players, including Nick Bosa whom the coaches ignored.

LINK

 

delmarblue

November 28th, 2018 at 11:00 AM ^

You are right. Preseason ranked no. 14, Traditionally 9-3, 10-2. I did not expect to be 10-2 this year. Problem is osu is not who they were. They and meyer have been historically great compared to what they were. Which bums us all out. Tressel was good for them also obviously. 1969-2000, good for us. 2001-2018 meh. We need meyer to go away and more nfl hall of famers ie chuck, tom and hutchinson. Ha

BBQJeff

November 28th, 2018 at 11:01 AM ^

Compared to RR/Hoke this program is definitely better.   It's a lot better.   Having said that, UM is paying Harbaugh and his assistants a shitload of money.   4 years in this team should be elite and it's not.   And it's not just the coaching salaries, look at all of the money spent on the facilities.  

Through 4 years the defense has been what should be expected (for the life of me I have no idea what happened to our D-line over the last 3 games of the season though) but the offense has been nowhere near good enough.   Changes have to be made on that side of the ball.

Minent Domain

November 28th, 2018 at 11:05 AM ^

Well-said!

For further context, per my brother's analysis, here are the only teams with similar win-percentages to us in Power 5 Conference Teams (plus service academies, BYU, and Notre Dame).

>90% win rate: Alabama and Clemson
>85% win rate: Oklahoma and Ohio State
>75% win rate: Georgia and Wisconsin


We're 38-13, followed by Penn State, Washington, and Stanford at 38-14 to round out the top-10 in win-percentage.

We're in the same division as two of the other top 10 and the same conference as 3; it shouldn't be surprising that it's extra hard to maintain a superlatively high win percentage given that SOS hurdle, but we're doing a pretty impressive job anyway. Saturday hurts, but the chances that any other coach comes in and does a better job are vanishingly small.

BlueGoM

November 28th, 2018 at 11:40 AM ^

Agree w/OP.  People wanting Harbaugh gone are, as OP said, willfully blind to how Michigan fared in the 1990's - early 2000's.  Sadly 1997 was the exception.

 

Vasav

November 28th, 2018 at 12:06 PM ^

Mostly agree, but some minor quibbling: in 2003 and 2004, we won Big Ten Titles, and in 2003 we beat Ohio. So any 4 year stretch that includes 2003 (or even 2004) is "better" than Harbaugh's tenure, including 2003-2006. But yes, Harbaugh has taken us out of the desert. He is clearly the best man for this job. But until we beat Ohio, we are not "back."

I want us to beat Ohio and win the Big Ten. And mostly we can't do the latter without the former. And over the last 15 years, we've won once, had four "coin flip" type losses (2006, 2012, 2013, 2016), and lost handily or got blown out ten times. The majority of this "streak" we haven't been close, and shockingly, we still weren't even close to it Saturday. Harbaugh has been successful and I believe he will get over this hump, but wanting to beat that damn excuse of a university is a fair goal, and having our faith shattered that he can do it after Saturday is a fair take. He shouldn't go but damn, this one hurt. And until we beat them, we are not back.

truferblue22

November 28th, 2018 at 12:42 PM ^

Word, brother. 

 

Too many people here listen to Valenti (which blows my goddammed mind that ANY MGoBlogger would EVER listen to that dickwad) and regurgitate the stomach bile he spits all over the Detroit airwaves each night. If we lose Harbaugh we will be MUCH worse than we are now for a long time. Minnesota used to be dominant once too, folks.

 

 

 

JFW

November 28th, 2018 at 1:07 PM ^

Excellent post. 

I think that, while Saturday sucked, it wasn't an accurate indication of how good/bad we are. It was a perfect storm of shit that just happens some time. Some was on the coaches, some on the players, some on the other team playing extremely well. 

We need to keep recruiting up, even somehow in the face of that loss. We need to keep up the winning against 'the rest' pace, beat MSU next year; but somehow shift focus a little bit more to OSU.

None of these are easy things. MSU will be stronger next year. OSU will be the talent rich team they are, and we lose a ton on defense. 

But I believe it can be done. 

Above all, as a culture, the team needs to take that next step to believe we can win the big game. 

BBQJeff

November 28th, 2018 at 2:30 PM ^

That's a good point.   Saturday was horrible but those games sometimes happen.   OSU got housed by Purdue.  Last year that got destroyed by Oklahoma and Iowa.   Harbaugh rarely wins big games but other than Iowa in '16 he doesn't lose to teams he should beat.  

dwc13

November 28th, 2018 at 3:48 PM ^

First, full disclosure: I am an Ohio State and Nebraska alum.  I (respectfully) participate on other teams' forums, except on occasion when engaging Alabama or Notre Dame fans.

College football is cyclical.  Sustained excellence for a long period of time is very rare, especially in today's environment (e.g., TV exposure/money, social media, 85 scholarship limit for FBS programs, etc.) Teams are good for periods of time and then there are some tough years.  That happened to Nebraska after Tom Osborne retired.  Also happened at USC, Oklahoma, Alabama, Texas, Florida, and now FSU.  Those of you clamoring for major change at Michigan, be careful what you ask for.  

While I don't follow the Michigan football anywhere close to most on this forum, I think Michigan has made good progress since Coach Harbaugh returned.  The issue for UM's fan base is whether it has been enough in the time he has been head coach.  There's no real point in attempting to address unrealistic expectations of a vocal minority; they're almost never satisfied.  Hey, there are even some 'Bama fans who are upset with Saban because the Citadel took a lead in the game.  Those who are unhappy with the Michigan football program, what is the better option for the Wolverines?  When a program makes major changes, often it's like hitting a reset button, and there's no guarantee it will work.  Remember, the Big Ten East Division is brutal.  Michigan did get convincing wins against Wisconsin and Penn State, and a nice road win at MSU this year.  If that happened at Rutgers, such an occurrence would warrant a lifetime contract for the head football coach.   

I certainly understand the frustration of not beating a rival; after all, I lived through the dark days of John Cooper and Bill Callahan / Mike Riley (I'll give Bo Pelini a pass).  I think Harbaugh has been building the program in his vision from the ground up.  It takes time to get the right coaches & players into the program and contributing.  And you need the majority of the contributors to stay in the program 3-4 years.  Ohio State has been hurt the past few seasons because of the talent that has left (way) early for the NFL Draft.  The one thing I am surprised at is the extent Michigan has had to rely upon transfer QBs.  That shouldn't be the case at a school with UM's resources, tradition and academics.

I hope Michigan is selected for a NY6 bowl game and closes out the season with a win.  I root for all B1G teams in bowl games (yes, even Sparty, which has been a pain-in-the-ass for OSU the past 5+ years).  The national perception of the Big Ten football depends largely upon its flagship programs:  Ohio State & Michigan, and to a lesser extent Penn State, Wisconsin, MSU and Nebraska.

Finally, I hope Michigan crushes UNC tonight.  The ACC is to basketball what the SEC is too football:  just evil, lol.  

 

MoCarrBo

November 28th, 2018 at 4:33 PM ^

Nothing to do with unrealistic expectations. Its just cold hard reality. This was the worst team you guys have fielded in my opinion since the 2011 fiasco. Your defense back 7 is awful, your running game is mediocre and if not for having one of the best young men in college football today in Haskins you'd have lost to Nebraska and Maryland.

 

Differences is Urban for as big of a scumbag he is and even buckeye's must admit dudes a creep, is a brilliant strategist and tactician and coaches circles around Harbaugh. Only game where I thought Harbaugh actually outcoached Urban in terms of game plan and attack was last year. Harbaugh is stubborn and does not coach to the flow of the game and has no plan B when plan A fails.

 

So for some Michigan fans, myself included, going 11-1 10-2 every year is meaningless when those losses are to you guys and still ring less.

 

If that's unrealistic expectations to be competitive against a good not great Ohio State team, then call me Mr. Unreasonable.