How far we’ve come; how far to go
Michigan football these last 4 years are best 4 years’ record since 1997-2000. (Look it up) And we were a flat-out dumpster fire, losing to everyone not just rivals, for all but 1 year of the last 8.
JH’s record against the better teams in Big10:
PSU 3-1, Wisky 2-1, MSU 2-2*, Iowa 0-1
OSU 0-4, ND 0-1, Bowls: 1-2
This bowl game looms pretty large: 2-2 looks much more like on-track upward and 1-3 seems much more like “among the better of the rest”.
Look at that record against better teams and overall again, and compare: Excepting 1997, this IS, sadly, “back”. We ARE back, if we mean that literally. 10-3/11-2 has been our cap except that one year in 1997 for 50+ years.
So, what we really mean is we want to be better than “back”, and specifically we want to be competing for championships every year like we used to do (when only OSU & UM were consistently any good at all, and OSU was not so far ahead of the rest of the Big, tho occasionally stumbling, as they are now). And: damn straight! those should be our goals.
And we have a long way to go yet for those higher goals, obviously. But, “Harbaugh should go” b/c 0-4 vs OSU and “hasn’t won big game”? Personally, I think that’s insanity; willfully blind to just how low we were before he got here, what exactly UM has done since at least 2006/7, actually. He was hired to turn that shit-storm around and start competing for championships again. Part I: accomplished. Part II: long way to go (almost competed for a moment here this season, but that was apparently a mirage). And besides: fact is, JH & UM is the best we’re ever going to have, so if it isn’t good enough, nothing will be. If JH goes, UM will regress.
Anyway: is it disappointing we aren’t farther on Part II yet? Sure. But, you’re kidding yourself if you thought we we’re anything other than a dumpster fire since at least 2007, and you’re forgetting that we were only ever a 10-3/11-2 peak team before that, except that 1 magical year. We want more now, and we should, and we want to beat our top rival again (more often than just when they’re a sanctioned basket case), and we should.
So long way to go for Part II: offering Klingsbury a pile of $$ to take OC from Hamilton & McElwain (& JH) would be a great start on that.
November 28th, 2018 at 8:59 AM ^
+1 for the “Coach Ryan Gosling” line but the rest of it is really dead on!
November 28th, 2018 at 9:12 AM ^
Amen brother Mantis. Amen.
It also blows my mind that we've had at least 10 "how do we fix the offense" posts for every one "what the fuck just happened in Columbus on defense" posts. From the ND game on we scored: 49, 45, 56, 20, 42, 38, 21, 42, 42, 31 & 39 points or an average of 38.6 per game. Pretty damn good IMO and not one I look at and think "holy shit we've got to get THAT fixed and fast."
I would be any amount of money that if I had told the board in advance we'd score 39 points on Saturday there wouldn't have been even ONE person here who would've predicted a loss. The long and short of it was on Saturday we had our worst game of the season at the same time OSU had their best. Our injured DLine could provide no pressure and Haskins, given time, killed us IT HAPPENS.
But damn folks - is anyone honestly upset at an offense that averages 38.6 points a game? I sure as hell am not.
November 28th, 2018 at 9:16 AM ^
You’re not upset because you’re 80 years old, and for the vast majority of your life that was a good performance. In 2018 it isn’t.
November 28th, 2018 at 11:12 AM ^
Actually I'm 59.
But that's ok. I remember when I was 15 everybody over the age of 30 looked like they were 80 too.
November 28th, 2018 at 9:43 AM ^
39 points is usually good enough. The people who dispute that or say "in 2018 you need more"...are overreacting.
The problem, to me, seems to be that we were damn lucky to put up that much vs. OSU, in a game where we needed much more. How often has our defense responded when the offense was scuffling? All fucking season. And when the defense shit the bed the offense couldn't hold us up.
We don't seem capable of winning a shootout. We don't seem capable of recognizing when a shootout is underway. We don't seem capable of playing from behind with any sense of urgency.
November 28th, 2018 at 9:47 AM ^
" But damn folks - is anyone honestly upset at an offense that averages 38.6 points a game? "
When it should be averaging 48 with a modern offense given competition levels - sure.
Our offense wasn't bad - but it wasn't good, and it massively under utilizes talent. It requires HIGH efficiency to achieve medium results - because it is woefully unexplosive.
November 28th, 2018 at 10:06 AM ^
We keep shitting on the offense. How about we start talking about the shitty defense and Don Brown who gets torched by every good offense he goes up against? Don is great against overmatched teams riddled with injuries but can’t win shit against a healthy CFP contender.
November 28th, 2018 at 9:54 AM ^
Bingo. And you don't have to bet anybody. It's already in print.
https://mgoblog.com/mgoboard/game-predictions-4
Not one person in that prediction thread had 63-62 as the final score. I'm with you. I have no idea what the offensive obsession is. Other than, like my "play calling" beef above, everyone is retroactively changing their tune. Grinding out 10-straight wins by running 65% of the time, controlling the clock and choking out opponents with our defense was a perfect strategy 5 days ago. We were falling all over ourselves with how good we were and punching our CFP tickets. 37-24. That's what everybody predicted. Click the link.
Then the defense unexpectedly breaks down and all of a sudden we're all so brilliant and Harbaugh is so stupid. Only we internet fans truly understand that the only way to beat OSU is to score 70 points per game.
(*whispers*: 39 points would have won the last two OSU games)
November 28th, 2018 at 10:23 AM ^
I'm one of those guys - I thought it'd be something like 45-24. I do think the offense played similarly to how it had performed the rest of the year, though. What I would like to see changed, though, is how the game is called. IMO, they didn't specifically attack the weak points of the defense (something they haven't done all year, so nothing new) when the situation called for it. Running the base offense in normal, conservative mode, they had only scored 9 points late into the second (21-9). At that point, they sped up a little and started throwing outside with crisp, short to middle routes and moved easily right down the field.
The third quarter again featured the conservative base plays, and they didn't get anywhere. The punt block happened and everything fell apart. But again, when they finally went back to hitting outside passes and slants, they - again - easily moved the ball against OSU's starters (who were trying to win a style points game).
My point - my complaint - is that it took too long to recognize that the base conservatism wasn't working (down 21-9 by that point). Starting the third on a near even slate, they failed to recognize that the defense wouldn't hold up, and reverted back to staid, old fashioned, 'control the ball' offense rather than accepting fate and getting into a Big 12 shootout with them.
The offense has the tools, but it lacks that ruthless, killer element that every other top 10 team has. And that comes back to coaching philosophy...
November 28th, 2018 at 11:28 AM ^
This game was never 21-9, so it's hard to take all of this seriously when you keep hinging your complaint on that.
It was 7-0, then we made it 7-3. Then we almost made it 10-7, but for the Gentry drop, so we settled for 7-6. They scored to make it 14-6. Within one score. Why nuke the game plan? We've seen our defense come out flat and rally to shut opponents down.
OSU scored next to make it 21-6, and what happened then? Michigan immediately drove 75 yards in 8 plays to respond and pull back within a score. OSU botched the ensuing kickoff and Michigan punched it in on 1 play to pull within two. Never was that first half out of reach. None of that was deserving of wholesale changes. We were in that game despite it not really going all that well.
Then our vaunted defense gave up 74 yards in :41 seconds and OSU went in with a 5 point halftime lead.
At halftime, I don't know about you, but the entire crowd I was watching with all echoed the same sentiment - Don Brown has to figure this out or we're never going to catch them. OSU had nearly 300 yards of offense AT THE HALF. And we were down just 5 points.
Again, read my "play calling" post above. Knowing what we know now, we all think we needed to open it up earlier and miraculously turn into some high-flying Big XII aerial-assault team despite the fact that we haven't done that in 3 years and our Tackles have never been able to pass block this season and we have a back-up manning the right side. That's revisionist nonsense and it's idiotic to act like we all knew OSU was going to spike us for 38 more points in the 2nd half.
We were down big to Notre Dame. Then we shut that shit down in the 2nd half and made a comeback.
We were down big to Northwestern. Then we shut that shit down in the 2nd half and made a comeback.
We were down 5 points. Shut that shit down and get back to our game. Get control of the clock, the chains and the football, clamp down on their offense and win the game. That's what we've done all year. That's who the 2018 Michigan team is, was and will be. That's the game all of those 37-24 predictions expected it to be, and honestly, that score was totally still within reach at halftime.
But now that we know the 62-point outcome, you retroactively wanted Harbaugh to panic and do something we haven't done all year IN A 5-POINT GAME. I know you. I like you. I have nothing against you personally. But you're using hindsight to sound smarter than the coaching staff who had to manage this situation in real-time, and you sound absurd to me.
November 28th, 2018 at 11:39 AM ^
The defense adjusted at halftime. The defense gave up a field goal and a 2 yard TD off an INT in the entire third quarter and 60 total yards of offense in that quarter. We needed the offense to capitalize and got nada.
November 28th, 2018 at 11:45 AM ^
3rd quarter was 17-0. You're missing the Paris Campbell end around for a 78-yard TD. I like your fake 3rd quarter better, though.
I'll also add that the interception that Patterson threw was because we emptied out the backfield and tried to get aggressive. That left Steuber all alone on an island against Chase Young with no TE help. He blew by him like he wasn't there, chased Patterson out of the pocket and rushed his throw which turned into a pick and 2 plays later an OSU TD.
You sure you wanted them to do more of that?
November 28th, 2018 at 11:57 AM ^
Wrong again.
The Paris Campbell end around TD was in the fourth quarter. Right after the failed two point conversion attempt where Michigan called a 2 yard play when it need 3 yards and left them down 16 points.
November 28th, 2018 at 3:50 PM ^
Agreed - the O is definitely what stalled in the 3rd qtr.
November 28th, 2018 at 12:32 PM ^
"This game was never 21-9, so it's hard to take all of this seriously when you keep hinging your complaint on that."
Sorry for the typo...
"Michigan immediately drove 75 yards in 8 plays to respond and pull back within a score."
Correct. And before that drive, when it was 21-6 and they had almost tripled our offensive production, we all knew the trouble we were in. And we all knew the offense couldn't continue running to the interior gaps on 1st and 2nd down. You are minimizing that.
At 21-6, some urgency came out and they went outside and attacked the DB's to an easy score. Oh look - do what Maryland did (and every other team that lit them up), go outside on them, and you move the ball easily!
"We were down 5 points..." This paragraph is perfect. Except that it didn't play out that way. It was evident early in the 3rd that a repeat of the first half was in store. Brown's adjustments didn't work. At which point, accept your fate and get into a shootout.
Hindsight is a kick in the balls. I love this offense - the tools it has are bountiful. I would like to see them used more effectively - especially when they need to be wielded to full advantage. Defense travels, but sometimes it has a bad day, too...
I will also admit that the game didn't fully unravel until Bush was carried off the field. But it sure was on its way to getting out of hand...
November 28th, 2018 at 1:04 PM ^
It did not even unravel after that. The defense stopped Ohio State at the goal line without Bush, and gave the offense yet another chance to do something...anything, in the third quarter. Brown's halftime adjustments did pay dividends. The defense had, against all possible odds at the time, succeeded in keeping the offense within one score despite a full quarter if ineptitude. And the offense paid them back with three 3 and out, a near pick 6 and a blocked punt for a touchdown.
That is the thing, even within the framework of "the defense will keep us in it" type mentality, the offense was an unmitigated disaster. We did not need to win a shootout at that point, we needed to possess the ball and put points on the board and we could not do that. That is the thing, I don't think it is a scheme issue. We had the ball multiple times in the third quarter within one score. It is a play-calling issue within the confines of the scheme. We could not move the ball and kept running plays into the strength of their defense for completely inexplicable reasons.
The 4th quarter is completely irrelevant to the discussion. The game was no longer in doubt after the near pick 6. That ended the "competitive" portion of the game.
November 28th, 2018 at 5:44 PM ^
My point - my complaint - is that it took too long to recognize that the base conservatism wasn't working (down 21-9 by that point).
I would suggest that's most people's points...
... it's just that such thought goes against the lemming's fandom here.
The 39 points is misleading too. 6 came from a gift and 14 came from garbage time. The true indicator of this offense was getting FGs out of red zone trips in the first half. So yeah, that needs to be fixed.
November 28th, 2018 at 10:24 AM ^
You must not have been around when we kicked 6 field goals against IU. Almost everyone was concerned about (1) our offense failing to score touchdowns, and (2) our lack of pass rush in that game.
Surprise, surprise, the two things that got us smoked against OSU.
November 28th, 2018 at 10:33 AM ^
No, most people don't remember that. They were busy arguing that we did not have an offensive red-zone problem up until the first quarter of the OSU game when we got two red-zone field goals when we needed touchdowns.
November 28th, 2018 at 5:47 PM ^
They were busy arguing that we did not have an offensive red-zone problem up until the first quarter of the OSU game when we got two red-zone field goals when we needed touchdowns.
Yep
That's why I looked it up the other day. Michigan was ranked #50 in the nation this season on getting TDs out of red zone trips. 29 TDs out of 50 RZ trips.
But the group think is so strong in here someone will find a way to argue that 58% is not a problem.
November 28th, 2018 at 10:49 AM ^
JPC keep it up. You won’t change a lot of these minds on here but you are 100% correct.
A lot of you have real trouble looking at the offense and how it isn’t built to beat OSU in 2018. It def is built to beat OSU from 1969-06.
November 28th, 2018 at 11:42 AM ^
He won't change my mind because I've known since Notre Dame that this offense isn't built to score 63 points. You guys are the ones pulling your hair out like this is new information.
#1 defense + efficient rushing offense + time of possession = 10-1. That's who we are, were, will be in the bowl. And that offense would've beaten last year's OSU and the year before that.
You guys are the ones acting surprised. The defense was this team's strength and it fell apart. So we lost.
November 28th, 2018 at 1:19 PM ^
And that's the problem. We've seen time and again when the offense falters the defense steps up. Here, the defense faltered and the offense did enough to win had the defense not faltered. That's not good enough.
Compare our offensive performance against OSU versus their season averages. We could (and for brief moments did) light them up through the air. Instead, we stuck to "manball", while pulling some bullshit with Peters and Milton. Bullshit that resulted in giving OSU a free 7 points just by sticking Milton in to throw an interception. Harbaugh did a terrible job and I hope he, at least, realizes that.
November 28th, 2018 at 12:15 PM ^
although, to be fair, we were very concerned about our FG kicking going into the Indiana game
November 28th, 2018 at 10:58 AM ^
If someone told you we would score 19 offensive points in 3 quarters what would you have said?
November 28th, 2018 at 11:08 AM ^
That it's a 4-quarter game and that we're sitting 1st and goal on the OSU 12 yard line and that we'd have 25 points just :49 seconds into the 4th. By the end of the game, we might have damn-near 40.
That's what I would have said.
November 28th, 2018 at 11:18 AM ^
The game was decided in the 3rd quarter. We were down 41-19 when Collins caught his second touchdown. The game was over. We had a possession in the 3rd quarter down 5 points and down 8 points because the defense forced a stop after halftime and forced a field goal from 1st and goal at the 2. The offense went 3 and out both times with the exception of a defensive PI where we were targeted Jake McCurry. That was the most important stretch of the game for both the offense and defense. OSU scored a field goal, a TD on a blocked punt and a goal to go situation after a Patterson pick. The offense didn't do a damn thing. It evaporated during the most important stretch of the game.
November 28th, 2018 at 11:33 AM ^
"That was the most important stretch of the game for both the offense and defense."
I agree. That's where they lost the game. But they were running the same offense they had all year, getting similar results and on pace to score what all of us predicted would be a winning score. They had a worse output against Northwestern and MSU, but nobody spent 4 days pining for Kliff Kingsbury after those games. Why? Because we didn't give up 62 points.
November 28th, 2018 at 11:55 AM ^
We are pining for adaptability. Something neither the defense nor offense showed.
Great teams can win boring grind it out slug fests or shoot outs.
Sorry, great coaches like Urban and Saban aren't going to lose against 1 dimensional offenses and defenses.
Urban went back, watched the Indiana game and knew exactly how to exploit Michigans D. Did Harbaugh not watch Maryland, Purdue or Nebraska?
November 28th, 2018 at 1:21 PM ^
It didn't evaporate. It self-destructed.
November 28th, 2018 at 11:26 AM ^
How was it in 1965 where defense won championships?
November 28th, 2018 at 11:34 AM ^
Michigan went 4-6 in 1965.
November 28th, 2018 at 11:14 AM ^
I would've said "what was the final score?" cause nobody, not even you, gives two shits about what the score of ANY game is at the end of the third quarter.
November 28th, 2018 at 10:09 AM ^
I am not on the "FIRE PEP" train at all, but I do have complaints about how he operates when down multiple scores. We saw it in both losses:
Running out of time down multiple scores? Let's just run it up the middle with Higdon on first down.
Sure that didn't work, but it'll work on second down with Evans.
Shit, it's third and 10.....oooh lets run a long developing play with only two routes. That'll surely do the trick.
Darn. Welp, next time we're in third and 10 I'll be sure to call a 5 yard out route. #FoolProof
I'm overall happy with the offense this year, and 39 points is usually enough in this rivalry, but there's little-to-no adapting the game plan in the middle of the game with this offense.
November 28th, 2018 at 12:06 PM ^
Spot on again Mantis. A brief comment on the defense. Ryan Day, much like Moorehead, knows Don Brown's playbook. If there are adjustments, Day already knows what they are likely to be (zones, bracket coverage, etc). Don Brown has zone packages but he doesn't play quarters all of a sudden to disrupt crossing routes. That is not in his playbook from what I know and I'm sure Ryan Day knew that too. The big surprise is the lack of pressure up the middle (stunt and twist action from the linebackers, etc). The defensive line has looked anemic for the last couple of weeks and honestly just weaker than they have played all year. Those two things are a surprise and likely go hand in hand in someway. Regardless, this is the S&P+ number 4 offense so I'm not sure that result is as surprising on its face as people think.
Again, from an analytics perspective, Pep hate is somewhat idiotic. They can't do change routes with a group of WRs that are young and a quarterback that is honestly not mature yet in checks and reads. He can make all the throws but he isn't preternatural in thinking the game like Dylan McCaffery to be honest. My only complaint about the offense is not the plays themselves or the capability of the players at all. It truly was the play calling. I believe there are more limitations to the play calling than people think because of what the QBs and skill players can and can't do. But not getting your playmakers in space to make plays is the component of creativity in the play calling of the offense that I hope will improve. I don't know enough to say whether that is play design, execution or situational - which would put the blame on different people. But based on the offseason changes, we will know that answer.
I get the overreaction by people. I really do. But honestly this team and program are absolutely headed in the right direction. Losing valiantly or getting boat raced doesn't change the narrative. When you have playmakers everywhere and a creative way to call plays - then there is a lot more you can do. This offense next year is going to be really, really good. You will have tackles who can actually play tackle, TEs that can block and catch, WRs who can run routes and get separation, and RBs who will cause damage in space and between the hashes. People are looking at Harbaugh like he isn't the dude who put up 55 on USC and forced Pete Carroll out of the Pac 10. That guy doesn't all of a sudden become a different guy - he just needs to be confident enough in what he has to execute all of this tricks.
I felt the team would recover from Notre Dame because they were a comparable team from a talent perspective that did not execute well enough to win (Dexter Williams not starting aside which makes a big difference). I think OSU just had more talent, and when they were executing at a level like they haven't all year and we were too complacent to adjust, we got blown out. We should have recognized that this was going to be a point a minute game coming out of the half. But can anyone fault Harbaugh for believing Don Brown would adjust into shutting OSU down in the second half? I wasn't sure he could because again Ryan Day would know the adjustments that are coming and would have counters. But I don't blame Harbaugh or Pep for feeling like Don can shut this down, we can ball control, take some metered shots and win this game. Once the blocked punt happened you had to open things up. The blocked punt with an interception right after was the ballgame.
November 28th, 2018 at 7:15 AM ^
I was going to look it up, but then you told me to, so now I am not.
November 28th, 2018 at 7:18 AM ^
Until Harbaugh can make the OSU game a rivalry again we are not back.
November 28th, 2018 at 10:00 AM ^
I wish one of the kids that lives across the street from Schembechler hall would put up a sign with the number of days since we beat OSU that ticks up every day. If someone did something like that to me it'd piss me off, and anger is a powerful motivator.
November 28th, 2018 at 7:24 AM ^
Not sure about this obsession with the offense. It played well enough to win the game.
The D had two of the linemen playing injured. This led to no QB pressure. With no pressure, one of the top QBs in the nation shredded the defense. It exposed our younger secondary to a situation they could not handle. We also lost the best LB in football halfway through the game.
Games are won and lost in the trenches, we had no D line for the game.
November 28th, 2018 at 7:44 AM ^
We were down 21-6 before OSU went full retard for 5 minutes then proceeded to hold michigan scoreless the whole 3rd quarter.
Erm what game did you watch?
November 28th, 2018 at 7:37 AM ^
Kingsbury is likely going to the NFL, where offenses are evolving much like the NBA have. His offensive philosophy and Harbaugh's are almost on opposite ends of the globe. No way would Harbaugh want him.
November 28th, 2018 at 7:43 AM ^
I'm holding out hope that Harbaugh goes Lloyd Carr at the 2008 Capital One Bowl in our bowl game this year
November 28th, 2018 at 5:55 PM ^
That would be something.
I still remember watching that game against UF and saying where the heck was this play calling all season long.
November 28th, 2018 at 7:44 AM ^
I'm still grumpy from the OSU loss and am not ready for any perspective.
Yes, we are better than last year, and are approaching late Lloyd level and trending up. That being said, get off my lawn.
November 28th, 2018 at 7:50 AM ^
We are back, at least in terms of record. The difference is we used to beat OSU 70% of the time in the Cooper era and we used to always beat MSU. Now, we split with MSU and beat OSU, what 5% of the time. We beat PSU and Wiscy on their down years and lose to them on their up years. The reality is we are a good/solid team, but not a great one. IMO that has always been the case. We were consistently a pre-season top 10, but the post-season polls were not as strong as we often didn't fare as well in our bowls. But, beating a top team in OSU more often than not kept the fan base happy and IMO had a positive impact on the perception of our ability to play with the top national teams. Now all we hear about is how we can't beat OSU.
November 28th, 2018 at 7:52 AM ^
The defense shit the bed in Columbus, not the offense.
Although I will lay it on Harbaugh for not having a game plan to beat them like in 2016/17. I think he thought they were weak enough this year for us to beat them in the trenches, using the regular playbook. That was obviously a mistake.
November 28th, 2018 at 8:05 AM ^
RE: “Regular playbook”
Everyone seems to be forgetting that our right tackle was making his first ever start in this game. Yes, he played most of the IU game, and he was probably getting reps with the ones for a couple weeks, but still, I would like to have seen us play that game with the offensive line that rolled through Wis, MSU and PSU.
I know OSU was missing Bosa, but they had all season to deal with that.
I read the box score yesterday because that is what I do. Each team had 28 first downs. M had 36 minutes time of possession. It’s not like our offense wasn’t doing their part. Our defense didn’t get tired due to constantly having to go back on the field. They only played 24 minutes. The defense sucked from beginning to end. Fix that and we’re a playoff caliber team.
November 28th, 2018 at 8:33 AM ^
How do you really deal with losing the #1 player in college and likely #1 NFL pick. I think it was planning concerning depth and the best DL coach getting them ready. How did the blue deal with Gary not reaching his potential as the top incoming recruit?
November 28th, 2018 at 8:40 AM ^
Once again Michigan came out flat, was offensively predictable, Gentry, and we were out coached.
November 28th, 2018 at 8:12 AM ^
The defense shit the bed in Columbus, not the offense.
Not disagreeing that the defense didn't blow, but the offense didn't do a ton either. They punched in one TD after recovering the ball inside the 10. They scored another TD late when the game was already out of hand. During the time that counted, the offense really didn't produce much on their own without help. OSU was more susceptible to spreading it out and throwing the ball around, yet we tried (until the game was out of hand) running the ball up the gut. IMO the offense failed. I think we need more spread concepts to get the ball into the hands of guys like Evans, DPJ, Bell, etc. in the open field. We keep doing that to the TEs and Collins, neither of whom are great in the open field and getting upfield quickly. Throw it down field into our big guys and get the ball on the edges in space to our quicker, shiftier guys.