Michigan is Good, But Not Elite, and Won't be Elite Without Different (Worse) Institutional Standards
Summary Points
- We have severely overreacted as a fanbase after OSU instead of just admitting the truth
- The truth is that we are likely a good, consistent 10-win team under Harbaugh which would be mostly in-line with history; we are not elite and we have never been elite in the modern era
- To be elite would mean winning 85%+ of games like Meyer, Saban, and Swinney – my view is that the distinction between elite and non-elite programs is not scheme or player development but rather player talent being recruited
- Michigan – as a university – has structural factors (not paying players, adhering to academic standards, caring about integrity, etc.) that prevent us from recruiting elite talent as consistently as Alabama, Clemson, and OSU
- We as a university / fanbase would have to sacrifice some of those structural factors to truly be an elite team – the open question to ourselves is whether that’s worth it or not… if it’s not worth it, we should be content with 10-win seasons and rarely beating OSU instead of constantly being in BPONE
- I am not making a value judgment on this, as I’m not sure where I stand on this myself – I guess I personally lean towards being ok with just being good but not elite at football and having Michigan be a place of integrity
I. Our Overreactions
The short-term thinking and overreactions on this board and the broader fanbase consistently leaves me shaking my head. Perhaps it should be unsurprising given that I work as an equity investor and so see short-termism and overreactions in the market constantly, but I guess the effect is even more dramatic in college sports.
Before the season started, everyone had fairly reasonable takes as summed up by LSAClassof2000's diary post here. The average prediction on this board was for 9.6 wins, and we achieved 10 wins which was right in line. But man did we ride an absolute roller coaster of hot takes and overreactions along the way.
After Notre Dame - a game that we lost by one touchdown against a veteran team on the road at night after several game-defining plays bizarrely went ND's way - the board was ready to throw in the towel. We were severely drenched in BPONE and this includes Brian et. al., UMBig11, and even reasonable coach types I really respect like Magnus. There were only a few dissenting opinions that the season wasn't lost and that we - in fact - were actually pretty good. This was my thought as well, and I told several co-workers that I was actually fairly encouraged by our performance against a very good team for a first road start breaking in that offensive line. Of course, today Notre Dame is a lock to be in the playoff. You can argue that their schedule was really easy, but when they made that schedule they had no idea all the teams they would play this year would suck. I would argue the same thing about our schedule - many of the teams we played and beat turned out to be not as good as advertised (e.g., Michigan State, Penn State, and especially Wisconsin which started the season #4).
Then came our string of 10 straight wins. We paved weaker teams into the dust and rode an incredible wave of optimism through the Penn State game. The Revenge Tour was in full swing, with merely one last foe to defeat. Don't get me wrong, I wasn't immune to the optimism in any way and I really enjoyed that feeling. It was strong enough that many ignored some cracks along the way. Never mind that it became fairly obvious that many of these teams that we beat simply weren't as good as they were supposed to be. Never mind the fact that we were somewhat exposed by Indiana, which ran a similar offense to OSU but with athletes only 90% as good (and that last 10% makes all the difference - imagine a 10% difference in the 40-yard dash, for example). We here on the board were already going through every possible CFP scenario to see how Michigan would get in, who we'd play, etc. That little obstacle in the way which was OSU was almost a foregone victory - after all, they got blown out by Purdue right? They only narrowly beat teams that we pounded into the pavement right? Michigan is going to be elite again and the conversation was already "bring on Alabama."
Then the OSU game happened. Yes, it was a debacle, and yes we are probably better than 62 - 39. The game proved that we are - in fact - not elite and not ready to compete with a truly elite team. By this, I mean if the game were played 100 times, that we would win at least 40 of those times. I don't think that's been the case for Harbaugh other than 2016, during which perhaps it was 60 / 100 towards us. We just aren't at that level. But our fanbase simply couldn't take this realization. The asinine calls of fire Harbaugh, fire Pep (never mind that literally no one here knows how much of the offense is Pep vs. Harbaugh), fire Don Brown (never mind that we've fielded the #1 defense 3 years in a row), fire everybody are simply maddening and illogical. Who does this element of the fanbase think we could get that's better? It makes no sense. What was really dumb to me were all the posters who turned on the players and on the Revenge Tour. "Wow the Revenge Tour is the most juvenile thing ever, it's stupid, other teams don't need that motivation, let your actions do the talking, etc." These were very likely the exact same people who were fully on board with it earlier and ready to buy Revenge Tour gear. If we had beat OSU, how many posts on the Revenge Tour being stupid would there be? I bet it would be literally zero. This is ridiculous - either the Revenge Tour is awesome or it's juvenile and stupid. The concept itself should not be affected by the outcome of the game. Yet here we are.
II. Who We Are - Good, But Not Elite
Ultimately the point of this diary is to address our latest overreaction to the OSU game. For my job, I attempt to recognize when human sentiment swings too far from the fundamentals in either direction and simply analyze what the data says. What the data says is that we had a pretty good team that had a pretty good season, just not elite. In fact, the data says that we have - at least in modern history - never been consistently an elite team (the definition here being one that is truly capable of winning a national championship).
This seems to be the disconnect with the wild overreaction to the OSU game - a significant portion of our fanbase already thought of ourselves as elite. This is simply not true and really has never been true in the modern era. The takeaway for me is to simply reset my expectations - the playoff simply shouldn't be the expectation here at Michigan unless we change some long-term philosophical approaches as a university that are ultimately structural deficiencies (more on this later).
I was going to gather the data to prove this myself, but thankfully jmblue has beaten me to the punch and has done an excellent job of both providing the data and his own very well-reasoned conclusions. I link to his diary post here.
The only things I would add to jmblue's work is to highlight a couple points. From 1979 to 2007 (29 years pre-RR), we averaged 9.1 wins. So Bo, Gary, and Lloyd together during this time averaged only 9.1 wins, and 1997 was a complete outlier. 9-3 and 9-4 seasons consistently results in a <75% win rate, obviously. Harbaugh is actually averaging more in his four seasons. Yes an extra game was added at some point compared to earlier eras, but it was also easier to win in the earlier years due to a bigger talent disparity (scholarships). And again, as jmblue points out, we won many of those earlier Big Ten championships simply because you could tie - if that same methodology were used today, we would tie with OSU for Big Ten champions this year.
III. What Does Elite Actually Look Like?
So we've hopefully established that we are a pretty good team over the years - even great at times - but not really consistently elite. So what does consistently elite look like? Phrased another way, what would the team have to achieve to live up to the "fire Harbaugh" reactionary crowd's expectations?
Meyer is 81 - 9 (90%) at OSU in 7 seasons. That is elite. Saban is 144 - 20 (88%) at Alabama in 12 seasons, and 137 - 14 (91%) excluding his first 7 - 6 season. That is elite. Dabo Swinney is 113 - 30 (79%) at Clemson in 11 seasons, but 15 of those losses came during his first 3 seasons as he was building the program. Excluding those, he is 94 - 15 (86%). That is elite.
Since the college football playoff started, here are the teams and winners from every championship year (e.g., 2015 for the 2014 - 2015 season):
2015: Oregon, Florida State, Alabama, Ohio State | Winner: Ohio State over Oregon
2016: Clemson, Oklahoma, Alabama, Michigan State (LOL) | Winner: Alabama over Clemson
2017: Clemson, Ohio State, Alabama, Washington | Winner: Clemson over Alabama
2018: Georgia, Oklahoma, Alabama, Clemson | Winner: Alabama over Georgia
2019 projected: Alabama, Clemson, Notre Dame, Oklahoma
There's a few conclusions that I draw from this:
+ Teams that make the CFP – and especially those that win – generally have the best players. In my view there are two ways to win in football – have better schemes or have better players. At the elite level, however, I think everyone has great coaches that run great schemes. I don’t think we will ever have a massive schematic advantage over Alabama, Clemson, Georgia, Oklahoma, or OSU – they care about football and can pay good coaches just as much as us (in fact, below I argue we have a schematic deficit as we refuse to embrace the spread). Case in point – OSU already had counters to adjustments that Michigan made to its defense, as Space Coyote pointed out. It’s not as if we would have magically won the game if we just played zone defense the whole time – OSU has the coaching and the athletes to run zone beaters, and Brandon Watson is still going to be slower than OSU’s 3rd, 4th, and 5th wide receivers (I hate writing that as Watson has stuck around to be a very good player – unfortunately he is simply athletically limited). I don’t think anyone would dispute that OSU has better talent top to bottom than Michigan does and that it matters. We need better players to compete at this level on a consistent basis. Obviously player development matters a lot too, but it’s not like those elite teams don’t develop their players.
+ Teams that make the CFP typically run a spread offense. I believe that the only team above that doesn’t run a spread basically at all is MSU (LOL). Alabama used to be more pro-style (but incorporated spread elements) but has transitioned with the times to a spread. Admittedly, I haven’t followed Georgia much to know whether they are clearly spread or pro-style under Kirby Smart. Ultimately, however, the data would suggest fairly convincingly that at the college level at least the spread offense is simply better and harder to defend.
+ It’s much easier to for certain teams to make it to the CFP than others. But just because you make the CFP doesn’t mean you are an elite top four team. MSU (LOL), Washington, and even Oregon and Oklahoma are examples of this. This is because college football is split into divisions, and some divisions are inherently easier than others. The Pac12 and Big12 are simply weaker than the Big10 and SEC in this current era, meaning that the top-end teams in the Pac12 and Big12 are likely worse than the Big10 and SECs’ top-end teams. Yet, the best teams from these weaker conferences can often sneak in over the 2nd or 3rd best team from the Big10 or SEC. Oregon / Washington doesn’t have to go through Alabama or OSU to get in, nor does Oklahoma. However, Michigan has to go through OSU and Georgia has to go through Alabama. Not that this matters all that much in the end because of the point below.
+ Teams that don't belong in the playoffs are quickly exposed. If you aren't actually a Top 4 team in the country but you make the playoffs anyway, you get pounded pretty hard. MSU (LOL), Washington, and even Oregon are examples of this. They each got destroyed by an actual elite team. Had Michigan made it to the CFP to play Alabama or Clemson, I think we would have been absolutely wrecked. I think Notre Dame – which is a pretty damn good team this year – is going to get wrecked by either of those teams.
IV. How Do We Become Elite?
If you made it this far, I appreciate it and I do finally get to the punchline. I’m not just pointing out problems without offering potential solutions – unfortunately these solutions may not be well received by us as Michigan alumni and fans. After all, Michigan is an institution that stands for integrity and we all need to make our own choices on what football means to us within that broader context.
Easy fixes – schematically. As the data above would suggest, we should be running a spread offense. We should force defenses to play 11v11 (on every play), use misdirection, and get the ball to our playmakers 1v1 in space. We have the athletes now to do so but we still do not do this. Instead, we line up in a mashing formation to run and then run obvious play actions on 3rd and 7 that fool no one (I don’t think we’ve really ever actually run on this down and distance, so why even fake it?). We run to open up the pass when we could and likely should pass to open up the run. Get the ball to DPJ and Chris Evans and let them beat guys 1v1, just like Indiana and OSU did to us. Get the ball to playmakers as they are running in stride so they can pickup YAC instead of having players have to constantly look back, adjust, and then get tackled for YAC. Let playmakers make plays with as few execution constraints as possible (e.g., everyone else needs to hit their blocks). It’s always going to be harder to tackle someone running full speed when they get the ball.
I don’t think these are novel concepts but for some reason seem to choose a more complicated scheme on purpose – Harbaugh has been fairly stubborn in this regard despite showing a history of tinkering and philosophy adjustments elsewhere. Our offense does well against inferior defenses, but against OSU which has superior talent and just as importantly superior depth we have obviously not fared well. The OSU game was really disappointing because it appeared we were on the path to incorporating all the above elements into our game – however, we seemed to prefer to play completely straight up and absolutely regressed.
On defense, I think changes to scheme are less necessary. We simply didn’t have the athletes to matchup. OSU’s top four receivers are all 4.4 speed players and excellent at getting open and they have literally the best throwing quarterback in the history of the Big 10 (by statistics at least). Our defensive line simply was not good enough either – those that thought Michigan has the best defensive line in the country simply have not spent enough time watching other teams out there. I don’t believe the outcome of the OSU game would have been any different had we altered our scheme, ran zone completely, etc. We were simply out-talented more so than we were outcoached.
I think a better scheme will close the gap between us and OSU, and would have made this last game closer for us. It wouldn't have won the game for us though. We needed players as well.
Hard fixes – recruit better players. Michigan pulls in a Rashan Gary, Jabrill Peppers, Daxton Hill, and hopefully Zach Harrison every once in a while, but it really isn’t to the consistency of Alabama, Clemson, and especially Ohio State. Clemson (and I know it wasn’t always the case before) today starts four world-beaters at defensive line. I think highly of Rashan as a player, teammate, and person but think that any of Clemson’s four is likely as good if not better at the college level than Rashan has been… and there are four of them. Again, I don’t think this is going out on a limb here but we simply don’t have the athletes to consistently beat OSU. And yes, I know that Purdue blew them out and Maryland almost beat them but they were just lucky rolls of the dice. Do you really believe that Purdue / Maryland beats this year’s OSU team consistently, e.g., >60 games out of 100?
In my mind, there are several reasons why Michigan does not recruit at the level of Alabama, Clemson, and Ohio State:
+ We do not cheat and pay players. We all know that the entire SEC, from Saban on down, pay players to go to their school. Our own players have implied as much during their recruitments – Denard, Rashan with Clemson, etc. Look at Laquon Treadwell and Isaiah Wilson to Ole Miss and Georgia respectively. We know beyond a doubt this is happening. There are supremely talented players that would never consider us because we won’t buy their mother a new house or car or slip them a few thousand dollars.
+ We care about academics. When you come to Michigan, it’s expected that you go to class and graduate with a Michigan degree. It’s expected that you better yourself and expand your horizons – that’s why we have the overseas trips to Paris, Rome, etc. There are talented players that do not care about academics or bettering themselves. They won’t consider us because the just want to play football, party, and fuck girls without having to deal with homework.
+ We care about character. We all know Urban Meyer is a piece of shit who played Aaron Hernandez and who protected a coach who beat his wife (and truthfully, I freely admit I don’t really care about Courtney Smith – I was only interested because it was OSU; otherwise, she is a completely random person to me and I don’t have any vested interest in her any more than I would have towards any other victim I don’t know – obviously domestic violence is horrible in general). We know Urban doesn’t care about anything other than winning, and his own players have implied that it’s an all business, cutthroat environment as opposed to a closer, family environment at Michigan. It just recently came out that Reuben Foster had a domestic violence incident (yes I realize that he isn’t on Saban’s current team). We all know that other teams have played players who have done probably pretty bad things. Yet our standard is higher. There are talented players out there who won’t consider us because they want to get away with doing bad things.
+ These matter to a lesser extent, but geography works against us. Michigan is not filled with recruiting talent unlike Ohio, California, Texas, and the South. Furthermore, though I don’t believe Michigan is really colder than anywhere else of similar latitude (I’m from Iowa and used to live in NYC), the perception that Michigan winters are horrendous probably prevents some talented players from considering us.
So what do we do to counter these issues? Well, the first question in my mind is should we even want to change these things?
There is a clear trade-off between the quality of player and Michigan’s standards (when it comes to recruiting as a whole – obviously we have one-off case in Rashan and Jabrill etc.) – lower the standards and bring in higher quality players. Hypothetically, if Michigan were to pay players I think our recruiting disadvantage goes away. We have more resources than basically any other football school out there. $50k for a top-20 recruit consistently is nothing. I myself don’t even know where I sit on this issue – I’m not sure it’s a good thing to prioritize football over the integrity of Michigan. But that’s essentially what we would have to do to be an elite program. It’s up to each of us to determine how much that means individually.
Overall conclusion: Michigan is not on a level playing field with Alabama, Clemson, OSU, etc. We could make it a level playing field if we 1) paid players, 2) lowered academic standards, and 3) lowered character standards. If we as an institution are willing to make that tradeoff, then we can be an elite program. If we are not willing to do so, then we should be content with 10-win seasons and rare victories vs. OSU and rare appearances in the CFP in which we are beaten by teams with superior talent. We simply cannot have both high institutional standards as a program AND expect to consistently beat OSU and compete for championships.
Side note: I tried to think through hypothetically what would happen if Michigan successfully lobbied (together with other schools) for paying the players. I don’t think that would work either because 1) not all the schools have enough money to pay players beyond scholarships (at least I don’t believe so since most athletic departments are loss-making), and 2) there is nothing to prevent Alabama from further paying the #1 recruit in the nation on top of what they are getting paid just to play in college. We would just be back to where we are today. The counter to that is that after a certain level of payment, money would matter less to players and so they might start valuing other things that other programs have to offer. However, these are 17-year old kids often from less than fortunate backgrounds so I still imagine that – on the whole – more money is hard to turn down.
November 27th, 2018 at 1:14 AM ^
This is satirical, right? Bo had Wolverines at elite level. Lloyd had Wolverines at elite level. If integrity / cheating by others is reason for no longer being elite, guess what? They have allegedly done it all along.
Recruiting footprint has changed nationally. The issue is with poor coaching hires.
November 27th, 2018 at 8:22 AM ^
I don't get the notion that UM football is not elite. Most wins, best win percentage, most Big 10 titles -- you all know the stats. Why do only recent wins count? And why do say, Spartan fans (who love to do this) get to pick the time period to suit whatever argument they're trying to make? UM football started a long time ago and got a lot of wins early. So what? Why does elitism have a time-period constraint?
November 27th, 2018 at 12:24 PM ^
Because the ones deciding to play football for the team are not 40 year old Michigan fans, they are kids born in the 2000's at this point.
November 27th, 2018 at 9:09 AM ^
I am not convinced that all of the programs you reference are paying players. Ole Miss was undoubtedly doing so. Does Alabama have paying players in its past? Of course. Do I believe there was a lot of sleazy stuff going on in the Tressel era at OSU? Hell yes. But right now, I believe at the level of programs to which you refer, the recruiting largely takes care of itself because the most talented kids are looking for the place where they can get their three years in and go make real money. It’s not that I think Saban is a saint. Far from it. But at this point, I don’t think he has to cheat, at least to the extent of overtly paying players:
November 27th, 2018 at 9:13 AM ^
Whine. My alma mater was conflicted with the sports versus academics difficulty. They were a founding member of the Big Ten, dominated the conference, had the first Heisman winner and great academics. Since they valued academics, but didn't use it as an excuse for losing (they were winners), they put their money where their mouths were. They dropped Div. 1 sports in favor of academic excellence. They have higher standards than UM has, but they won with them. The President just wanted nothing to conflict with academics. They are the University of Chicago. I have been seeking which team to follow Div. 1 sports. After the beat down and feeble excuses given, I am wondering about UM. Academics are not an excuse because a serious academic school drops sports. It seems to be an excuse for losing though.
November 27th, 2018 at 2:12 PM ^
Serious academic schools drop sports? Stanford would like to have a word with you...
January 2nd, 2019 at 8:44 AM ^
So your school was so concerned that they dropped Div 1 sports (I am familiar with the U of C story), BUT you're not sure about "following" Michigan because we use academics as an excuse for losing?
So if Michigan dropped Div 1 sports, you couldn't follow us anyways.
November 27th, 2018 at 10:08 AM ^
it's really hard for me to agree with your conclusion. you're basically saying we get whipped by OSU because they have better talent, which happens because of various institutional reasons.
ok.
but i think inertia plays an enormous role. once a juggernaut becomes a juggernaut (bama, clemson) they have a recruiting advantage with or without bagmen. the celebrity of playing football at Bama or Clemson goes well beyond getting a wad of bills under the table. the whole culture at these places worships football and winning. and that draws in the best recruits. Because they want to win championships and be stars.
Michigan supports football with an enormous budget and effort but the nature of UM means it's not worshipped like it is at Bama or some of the Big 12 schools. it's not as big of a privilege to play for harbaugh as it is for saban or dabo (or meyer, sorry to say).
also i think we got stomped saturday by getting outcoached moreso than outplayed. our guys on D are competitive, it's not just a talent gap, it was a schematic win for OSU I think.
so i don't think throwing away our integrity would get the job done, at least not right away. it would still take time to build the mystique that these other guys have at their schools.
November 27th, 2018 at 10:28 AM ^
Thanks for the thoughtful analysis, OP. Even most of the responses raised good points. If the level of anger at times led to harsh judgments, that is understandable after such a disappointing conclusion to what had become so promising a season. Frustration matched the level of optimism.
I should point out, though, that the coaching is not as mired in past dogma as some insist. JH did make adjustments from the previous season, bringing in some good coaching talent, and it did produce results. The improvement in the Offense from last year was substantial. There is no reason to believe he won't do so again. Nor that Don Brown won't respond to the challenge. We have as many reasons to hope for continued improvement, as to wring our hands in despair. Or type out angry messages, though that may be therapeutic, an essential part of the process of recovery. If so, I hope it helps.
Finally, injuries to some of our key players revealed a lack of depth and they came at the worst possible time, but that too is improving. Yes, we lose some good people, like Rashan Gary and Chase, but so do our rivals. Even if Shea does leave, the QB situation remains promising.
And before I am accused of repeating a familiar refrain of losers about next year being better, I would remind you that this year was better than the last. Step at a time?
Go Blue!
November 27th, 2018 at 10:35 AM ^
I would not necessarily use overall win percentage, even cumulative over 5-10 years, as an indicator of elite status. There are too many details and variables that get glossed-over by that metric (overall SoS, conference affiliation, choice on non-conference opponents, etc.). It is an indicator, but one that must be taken in context with other data points.
November 27th, 2018 at 11:39 AM ^
Some valid points, but drop the holier-than-thou act about academic standards and character. I think those are minor (if not entirely untrue/irrelevant) factors at best. Your other points are much more salient; elite teams are built over time. We've spent about a decade spinning our wheels so it's going to take longer to figure things out.
November 27th, 2018 at 11:45 AM ^
It's not holier-than-thou to refer to the academic standards. What the big-picture effect of that is, I don't know, but we have missed out on players because of grades. If you have contrasting information please provide.
November 27th, 2018 at 12:28 PM ^
We've missed out on players due to grades that ended up at JuCo's, which means nobody could take them.
If the number one recruit wants to play for Michigan, and he has the bare minimum NCAA qualifications, he will be accepted
November 27th, 2018 at 10:25 PM ^
Don't remember the name, Shea had a teammate that we wanted, at a position of need, whose transcripts were rejected.
November 27th, 2018 at 11:52 AM ^
I didn't even read the whole thing but this is horseshit, dude. Get your act together, this really makes Michigan fans look pathetic.
First of all, do we know for a fact that Ohio State and these southern programs actually pay the players? I mean, I highly suspect they do and its very likely but it hasn't really been exposed yet. Also, are we totally 100% sure that Michigan doesn't do this? I like to think our program has integrity and does everything by the book, but I don't know everything that goes on behind the scenes. I pray that Michigan doesn't suffer a scandal like PSU, MSU, OSU, ND, Maryland, but its so widespread now that I fear it can happen to anybody.
Having a lack of ethics doesn't make you an elite program. So if we assume paying players and academic fraud is rampant among southern teams, why are they not elite? Don't weaker, non-elite programs like Auburn, FSU, Ole Miss, LSU, Florida run dirty programs as well? Don't they get 5 star players? This hasn't made them elite. FSU's program is out of control and has been for years (a few years ago their players were raping students, getting in brawls, stealing stuff and joyriding cop cars, I don't think that's what we want for our program).
And assuming Michigan is clean, why would you sacrifice the program's integrity to win games? ISN'T THAT WHAT URBAN MEYER AND OHIO STATE DOES? And Michigan State? And Penn State? At the end of the day, the one thing that Michigan can hang their hat on is that they HAVEN'T had a major, embarrassing scandal like this (and they STILL win a lot of games).
THERE ARE MORE IMPORTANT THINGS THAN WINNING. When Michigan does figure out how to win these games, it will be all the more satisfying. The reason they continue to lose to Ohio State is that they take it more seriously than Michigan. And the sooner Michigan figures that out, the better.
Michigan is on the precipice of being elite, being sleazy isn't going to push them over the edge.
January 2nd, 2019 at 8:50 AM ^
https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2014/4/10/5594348/college-football-bag-man-interview
November 27th, 2018 at 12:09 PM ^
Can anyone point to an actual Harbaugh-era example of a player that went somewhere other than Michigan as a result of our "academic" standards? There is a pretty hefty lie out there about Michigan having higher standards than other similarly situated athletic schools that even Harbaugh himself debunked before he came here.
Stanford, Duke and *gasp* Notre Dame, appear to have higher standards for football players. The service academies are obviously in another league altogether. I really think Michigan having higher standards is a myth. If you look at the players Alabama is recruiting, you will find a little maize "M" amongst the other schools recruiting them. We just aren't getting them and it isn't because of an SAT score.
November 27th, 2018 at 12:33 PM ^
The pressure on Harbaugh is to deliver a national championship. Fans cannot hold the beliefs that Harbaugh can deliver a championship, and that Michigan academic standards will be kept. They are inherently conflicting.
Michigan goes by the same standards everybody else does, and they wouldn't ever get top 5 recruiting classes if they didn't. Now, maybe Michigan doens't pull as many strings for kids that don't have the necessary qualifications to be eligible, but there are many kids with the bare qualifications to be a D1 athlete that attend Michigan
November 27th, 2018 at 7:58 PM ^
There are exceptions allowed for the athletic department but those are typically the ones that leave in the first two years (see Rich Rodriguez recruiting track record.) Most athletes meet the same requirements as the rest of us.
November 27th, 2018 at 12:20 PM ^
Buy the recruits, win the games. It's that simple. You can't name one national title winner in the last 20 years that hasn't bought that title. It's not how college football works anymore. I'm quite sure we all remember the great quote, "we don't come here to play school." I honestly hope Michigan maintains their academic integrity, it's more important than any trophy will ever be ( except maybe the Stanley Cup, that things outstanding?).
November 27th, 2018 at 1:32 PM ^
I think that this is a thoughtful and ambitious post, and even if I don't agree with a lot of it, I enjoyed reading it as well as the many comments on it. I just have a couple of things to add:
IMO, the perception of what constitutes "elite" has changed in the playoff era.
Prior to the playoffs, it was easier to be considered an elite program. With the old bowl system, you didn't have the same definitive end to the season that you have today. Sure, teams were awarded a national championship, but without a playoff, there was still cachet in winning a New Year's Day bowl or finishing in the Top 10 or even Top 20. Elite programs were ones that showed consistent results over an extended period of time.
Now, the only thing that matters is making the playoff. If you're not in the playoff (and in there a lot) you can't be in the conversation to be "elite". In our case, I think that you could make a convincing take that we've turned into a top 10 program under Harbaugh, but because we haven't made the playoffs we're not considered elite.
I don't know if one definition is more valid than the other, but I think it's important to recognize that what was considered elite in Bo or Lloyd's day is different that what is considered elite today.
Using my current definition, I'd say there are only three elite programs today: Alabama, Clemson and Ohio State.
IMO, if playoff appearances drive elite status, it will be difficult to have more than one elite team in a conference.
I think that one point that the OP somewhat mentions, and is worth considering, is can a conference support more than one elite team?
For all of the bluster about the SEC, other than Alabama, are there any other SEC programs that you would consider close to being elite? During the playoff era, I say that other than Alabama, Georgia the last two years, and Auburn every other year, the SEC has been pretty ordinary. That's helped Alabama. With the erosion and now collapse of Florida State, the ACC is terrible and that's definitely helped Clemson. Also, the fact that both conferences only play 8 conference games makes their paths easier. I'd argue that the Big Ten has had greater depth than either the SEC or ACC over the last couple of year and it also plays 9 conference games, I'd say that makes OSU's run pretty impressive.
All that said, if "elite" is now defined by making the playoffs and in most cases there only being room for one team per conference (at most), can there be two elite programs in a conference? I think it'd be tough. Alabama and Georgia will be an interesting case over the next couple of years-- although, I think that the fact that they are in opposite divisions will help them as they won't always play each other in the regular season.
As it relates to us, to be elite we need to knock off OSU and do it consistently-- but I think we all knew that.
IMO, saying we can't be elite because we live in a rarified air than the current elite programs is ridiculous.
I agree with the OP (and others) that continuing to evolve the offense is something that needs to happen. I don't think that we need to adopt the Air Raid, but better balance between run/pass and incorporating more spread elements to maximize the use of our skill players would help. I also think that the continued evolution of the OL will help us regardless of what we do with the offense scheme. Even though, the line improved significantly throughout the year, I'd still say that was the weakest position group.
I definitely do not buy the argument that we can't recruit at a level that's high enough to win at an elite level and that it's our higher moral and academic character that prevents us from doing so.
Under JH, we may not have reached Alabama or OSU recruiting, but we're definitely comparable to Clemson.
If you take a look at the 247 composite rankings for the classes that are active this season (2014-2018), clearly Alabama and OSU are superior. Alabama's ranks during that period were: 1-1-1-1-5, while OSU was 3-7-4-2-2. On the other hand, Clemson's ranking has been quite good but not earth shattering: 16-9-11-16-7. Michigan's classes were 20-37-8-5-22. If you look at the 2019 classes, Alabama is #1, Clemson is #6, Michigan is #8, and OSU is #12.
The 2014 and 2015 classes are somewhat outliers. 2014 was Hoke's last year and 2015 was the cycle after JH was hired. If we look at JH's full-year classes and include 2019, our rankings are 8-5-22-8. Clemson is 11-16-7-6.
Obviously, recruiting rankings aren't everything as they may hide gaps in classes (e.g. our OL recruiting in 2015 and 2016) and there's attrition that occurs, but based on the rankings, under JH, our recruiting is comparable to at least one of the three elite programs.
I don't buy that we limit ourselves due to academic or character concerns more than anyone else does.
Obviously, Michigan is a great school and should have academic standards, but do we really think that our admission standards for football are similar to Northwestern or Stanford? I think that our current coach disabused that notion while he was at Stanford. Maybe I would buy that our standards are higher than an SEC school, but I know people that have gone to both OSU and Clemson and neither of those schools are diploma mills.
I looked at OSU's commits in 2018 and 2019. They had 38 four star or higher recruits. 30 of them had Michigan offers. Our of the eight that did not receive offers, two were QBs ranked lower than the ones Michigan got, and the other six were among the lowest rated 4-stars in their class. Small sample size and all, but this would seem to show that we tend to recruit the same high level players that OSU does. We certainly don't seem to be more selective in that regard.
As it relates to character concerns, while I think that most of the team seem like good guys, let's not pretend that we haven't had our mix of bad actors on the team. Over the last couple of years, we've had actual criminals as well as academic casualties and generally questionable characters.
I'm not saying that we have any lower standards academically or character wise, but to say that's why we can't be elite is a huge stretch.
I don't know how much the bagman is a problem.
I'm willing to believe that some schools may benefit from the bagman but to think that every elite player that chooses to go to Alabama, Clemson or OSU is doing so because they're getting thousands of dollars or new cars seems like a stretch. My guess is that elite facilities, proven track record of getting players into the pros and the opportunity to win championships has at least something to do with it.
Overall, I agree that we're not an elite program. I'd also say that the standard to be considered elite has gotten much higher since the playoffs. You need to make the playoffs to be elite. Michigan's dilemma is that under Harbaugh, while we definitely are (or moving towards being) a top 10 program, we have one of the few elite programs in the country standing in our way. And until we get past them, a lot of the fanbase and the national media will play on the Talledega Nights line of "If you ain't first, you're last" or in this case, "If you ain't in the Top 4, you're trash." While I get that mentality, I don't agree with it.
I'm am much more optimistic than the OP that we have the potential to be elite. Under Harbaugh, our recruiting has improved to at least being competitive with Clemson and I don't see the same structural issues that they see. That being said, I do agree that we need to make some schematic changes to take that next leap.
November 27th, 2018 at 1:40 PM ^
Excellent comment! You make a lot of good points. Personally, while I did not attend U of M(I attended Michigan State) I would hate to see Michigan lower its standards just for the sake of a couple of football wins every year. Because if we are willing to lower our standards, pay players, other schools would be willing to pay more and lower their standards even further, and we will be right back in the same place.
I don't know what the answer is and how to address these problems with college football overall. I see college basketball as being very dirty and I'm extremely happy that John beilein can play by the rules and get to the national championship game. I think we should maintain our high standards and if we can get into the college playoffs, who knows how the dice will roll and we could be a national champion
November 27th, 2018 at 1:58 PM ^
You forgot to mention OSU as a team that didn't belong in the playoff. 31-0 Clemson is being exposed and pounded. Yet they are an elite team. Slight contradiction, but you made sure not to include them in the section that didn't agree with your post.
You also mention Oregon as a team that didn't belong in the playoff yet they made it to the championship game and lost to OSU. They also lost a close game to Auburn in the BCS national championship game in 2011. Both teams proof of what scheme and a stud QB can do for you.
Our biggest issue is our offensive scheme. By playing two and three tight ends you are allowing the D to load the box which makes everything more difficult for the offense and specifically the Oline. Your Oline better be elite if you plan on using this type of system and ours is far from it. Not to mention we are wasting what is quite possibly the greatest WR haul in school history with DPJ, Tarik, Nico, and Oliver Martin and this will only make it harder to recruit stud WR in the future.
November 27th, 2018 at 3:13 PM ^
I am a OSU fan. Someone directed me to this site/article because of how absurd it is. I try to be respectful to fans of every other team. I have a friend that is a hardcore Michigan fan. He literally busted out reading this. Here are the reasons that everything you are saying is pretty much bogus:
1. OSU APR scores for 2018 are 982, tied for 21st in the country. Michigans are 990 and 6th in the country. For reference, there is a bigger spread between #1 Northwestern and #6 Michigan than there is between #6 Michigan and #21 OSU. So to act like you are putting out rocket scientists while OSU is putting out janitors is complete and utter BS.
2. Paying players to come to school? Please provide any proof or links showing that this is happening at the "elite" schools you mentioned. I'll wait. The most egregious reference of straight up paying players at any school listed dates back to the mid 90's at...you guessed it...Michigan basketball.
3. You recruit character? I can list numerous examples of the lack of character that has shown the backside of Michigan football players, while also pointing out the great things that the students are involved in at not only OSU but other major programs. You are cherry picking a couple of incidents, I could do the same to put Michigan on the same level. Maybe if you had worried more about game planning than running your mouths about revenge tours and all that crap, you might have had a chance to win the game.
4. Saying Meyer protected a coach who beat his wife is completely false. My god do some research. There are 2 people who spout that story, McMurphy and Courtney Smith. Not her family, not Zach Smith's family, not even the damn police (who visited the house something like 60 times to false calls from her). Meyer has stated that he made an error in judgement by trying to help Smith instead of firing him and throwing a family in a bad spot into financial turmoil. You think it was bad while the husband was there? Take away his money and it's 10 times worse. Courtney is about the money, that much is obvious no matter which "side" of the argument you are on.
You literally just made a 6 page list of excuses...that is why the Michigan program is where it is. "We just need our coach". "We are a QB away". "We are young, next year is our year". This crap has been going on for over a decade. My god I respect your school....YOU ARE FREAKING MICHIGAN! Your problem is you have a lunatic running the show in Harbaugh, and he won't change his ways. Your problem is the list of excuses you continue to put out there. Your problem is you and every other Michigan fan on here that agrees with you.
November 27th, 2018 at 4:03 PM ^
Ok, I'll bite on your "retort" ---
1. Admissions standards are lower for OSU and SEC schools then they are for Michigan or Notre Dame. This is just pure, unaltered truth. In particular for athletes. In particular for athletes who play football at a high level. OSU (and others, particularly in SEC) accepts transcripts from just about any and every JUCO and it is easier for players to get into the university of Ohio State. Ever see the series "Last Chance U"? Pretty popular thing on this thing called "Netflix".
2. Ummmmm... there are multiple threads here and other message boards showing pictures of players, at Alabama, who take SNAPCHAT and other social media posts of themselves with thousands of dollars laid out on a table. Or guys posing in front of expensive cars... how do they get them? Do they own the car? Didn't OSU get in trouble for a booster/supporter in Columbus "loaning" rental cars to Pryor and others without documentation or rationale? Google is your friend. SB Nation is your friend. Google "SB Nation Bagmen article". Not good enough for you? Still not convinced? Don't think certain programs skirt the (admittedly stupid) NCAA rules? Honestly think Michigan plays the same compliance no-harm no-foul nothing-to-see-here game as OSU and others? There are shades of gray in this area. I think the darker graphite color is squarely in the box with the "elite" college football programs.
3. I do believe, contrary to what (maybe) the OP implied, that OSU and Michigan and most/all Power 5 try to recruit character guys. The risks to program reputation are too high otherwise. But which programs seem to keep things under wraps longer... the "elites" or everyone else. How come Oklahoma sat on a video and serious assault charge to a top RB for over a year without comment... and without even kicking him off the team and out of school?
4. Meyer protected a coach (ZS) who is literally a scumbag, a poor character, poor judgement individual who was making over $250K a year doing all kinds of things Urban knew about. These actions by ZS were documented in a OSU internal investigation report. Or didn't Urban know about it? Which is it? Is Urban a wizard and a savant CEO football coach at a major program or not? If not -- isn't that an indictment of OSU that they'd keep someone with major "memory" and other health issues in such a position of responsibility and leadership, simply because Urban recruits well and is rah-rah on gameday? And if Urban did know about ZS cheating, acting scandalous on recruiting trips, rehab, substance abuse, etc etc -- why wasn't ZS let go after the second mistake / issue?
November 27th, 2018 at 4:45 PM ^
1. So you are saying the APR scores that are current to what the students are actually doing at the school are less important than admission standards for kids coming out of high school? Not to mention, most of the time Michigan is offering just about every player OSU is a scholarship. Are you honestly telling me that Michigan is going to offer a scholarship, the player says ok I choose you, and Michigan is going to say oh no I'm so sorry, your 2.85 GPA isn't going to cut it even if you are a top 10 recruit? Get out of here. Admission standards for regular students have nothing to do with the current state of the Michigan or OSU programs. APR scores are actual scores of what is happening while the actual football players are attending the actual school.
2. I agree that there are schools coloring outside the lines of NCAA rules to bring in athletes. But to think that Michigan isn't/hasn't participated (especially after they were busted doing just that) is a little ambitious unless you are a staff member and can prove otherwise. There are stories all the time, but without punishment by the NCAA, they are just stories. And Pryor getting cars? Nope, that wasn't even followed through by the NCAA. Selling his own personal shit to get tattoos, yes. And the coach was fired because of it, and it was a decade ago so....
3. I'll also agree with you on the Oklahoma thing, it was a reeeeallly bad look and how Oklahoma stayed out of trouble is beyond me. But in the OP's post, it was made to seem that OSU is lumped with other programs saying they don't recruit high character guys. Very rarely do you hear of a OSU kid on the police blotter any more, it has been cleaned up, Meyer is adamant about bringing in good kids and keeping them that way. On par with Michigan...this is not why the OSU football team is beating up Michigan.
4. Meyer admittedly said he handled the Zach Smith situation wrong in hindsight. However, most of the stuff that has come out, Meyer nor the school knew of all of it until after the fact. He tried to help Smith through his drug/alcohol problems. There are laws that categorize substance abuse as a sickness and you can't fire someone over it without trying to provide help to overcome the issues. That is what Meyer did. Here is all we know for sure about the Smith situation: He was a crappy husband, who cheated on his wife. He has some weird sex addiction. His life outside of campus started affecting his work on campus. Meyer and the AD were notified as soon as information came out about possible domestic violence, the title IX office knew about it, and they were doing an investigation on their own, as well as the police had been involved for years. The problem is the media and everyone outside think Meyer should have played God and stepped in front of the University and in front of police and prosecuted Smith himself. Impossible. Here we are 5 months after all this came out, and so far there has been absolutely nothing more that has come out of domestic violence allegations legally. So to mention Meyer in the same breath as covering for a wife beating coach as the OP threw in there is ignorant. There has been absolutely nothing that has come out to corroborate it. It's not who Meyer is, as much as Michigan fans would like to believe. OSU's program is a much more respectable program as far as character of the team than it was before he came.
Bringing me back to my original point, Michigan football is not underperforming because they are some squeaky clean program only allowing 4.0 students that scored 36 on their ACT's to walk onto the field as this post made it out to be. Again, I respect Michigan as a program, hate them because I am OSU through and through, but respect them. And you know what is funny about that word respect? Meyer is 7-0 against you guys, and all week all you heard from him is having respect for the program and rivalry and therefore preparing properly. THAT is why Michigan isn't winning. It's not because you guys are turning 3.75 GPA kids away while OSU is letting in kids with a 1.5 GPA that haven't been in a classroom their entire high school lives, while dropping $50k bags of cash outside of each of their doors. To even put that kind of stuff out there, again, is just Michigan fans continuing their decade(s) long excuses as to why they aren't winning.
Trust me, I grew up in the 80's and 90's, so I know how bad it sucks when you are losing the rivalry. To a certain extent, I can empathize. But here in Columbus we said enough is enough, and got rid of the coach. But the Buckeye in me just loves it, because I know that sooner or later Michigan will turn it around and may make a run of their own. You just won't find me throwing every excuse I can think of at it claiming completely crazy reasons as to why we can't win. It's the day, week, month, and year before leading up to the game and what happens between the lines, and that's all it is. Prepare better, coach better, play better. Period.
November 29th, 2018 at 8:20 AM ^
APR scores is such a horrendous argument. OSU as a school is easier than Michigan, so why would it be surprising that OSU has a good APR score? It doesn't say anything about whether or not any given player could handle Michigan's workload.
November 29th, 2018 at 9:42 AM ^
Except for the fact that when you are talking football players, it seems Michigan loads its team with "General Studies" majors, which is basically yeah we take some classes, the easiest classes possible to remain eligible to play football. You guys on here seriously try and skirt the fact that the Michigan football players are doing what the football players do for every other major program. Quit acting like you guys have a team full of future doctors.
https://www.mlive.com/wolverines/academics/stories/index.ssf/2008/03/athletes_safe_harbor_is_genera.html
November 27th, 2018 at 7:50 PM ^
Nice notes but I gotta jump in on Michigan playing basketball players - NO, Michigan did not pay anyone to attend Michigan. Players paid by Ed Martin went to Missouri, Illinois, and Michigan. The only reason Michigan got dinged was Bill Fisher was foolish enough to regularly provide Ed Martin with basketball tickets which the makes Martin a Michigan booster and this occurred after the Fab Five. Ed Martin always had a ton of cash from running numbers in a Ford assembly plant. He handed that cash over to parents of promising players to help them out and make friends for the day when he could use some help from an NBA player.
If you don't know of players getting paid (Ole Miss, etc) then you have been paying attention (Maurice Clarett). I would guess that someone at Michigan is getting something from an alumnus but it isn't much considering the habits of Clemson, Alabama, Texas A&M, and the rest of the SEC.
January 2nd, 2019 at 9:20 AM ^
"The most egregious reference of straight up paying players at any school listed dates back to the mid 90's at...you guessed it...Michigan basketball."
"My god do some research."
Start with the Ed Martin relationship with Detroit players - NOT Michigan players. Then get back to us.
November 27th, 2018 at 3:56 PM ^
I'll take this. Not sure I agree with your definition of elite.
November 28th, 2018 at 12:45 AM ^
eye roll
November 28th, 2018 at 12:45 PM ^
I appreciate the thought and time you put into your post, OP, but i feel like an important part of your theory is based on a bullshit notion, specifically:
"Michigan – as a university – has structural factors (not paying players, adhering to academic standards, caring about integrity, etc.) that prevent us from recruiting elite talent as consistently as Alabama, Clemson, and OSU"
i simply don't buy this. and I think Harbaugh's recruiting is edging ever closer to the level required to actually compete with an Alabama or Clemson on the field.
you basically tried to fancy-up the "they win because they cheat" argument, which is just jealousy and sour grapes.
don't forget - a real spot of the ball in '16, or a functional QB in '17, and we're not having this discussion.
November 28th, 2018 at 2:44 PM ^
This is an excellent diary. I agree with everything in your "How do we become elite" section. We do need to improve our offense, increase the short passes, get players in space, and add some smaller, faster slots if that doesn't exist on the roster. The next step IMO would be to hire an OC with experience implementing such a successful offense, a Don Brown for the offense. Then Harbaugh should relinquish the reins and let the OC build the offense and call plays. On offense, we've been operating at a disadvantage. While we certainly have a talent gap against teams like OSU and Alabama, we simply can't operate a Bo-era "manball" offense and expect to win any games against elite teams. A spread offense gives us a puncher's chance, even if we are usually outclassed in terms of talent. Not to mention, it's more fun to watch. I enjoyed winning games this year immensely and I'm not suggesting we go with a high-risk approach, but certainly incorporating more spread concepts in the passing game - and simplifying it - to mesh with the blocking concepts Warinner is teaching seems like a reasonable approach. Pass first, run second. Take what the defense gives you instead of deciding to run that ball regardless of the number of defenders at the LOS. Can't we basically download and copy concepts OSU has used? We have Warinner's knowledge to tap and with a capable OC, seems like the offense could really take off.
On recruiting, I'm working on something that I'll post soon. It's a spreadsheet that accumulates data from 24/7 recruiting rankings and S&P+ ratings. Suffice it to say, recruiting really does matter. We're all convinced that our talent is vastly superior to MSU's, and that with competent coaching we beat MSU almost every year. Based on my research, that seems likely to be true. But it's also true that the recruiting gap between Michigan and MSU is almost the exact same size as the gap between OSU and Michigan. So Michigan is in a shitty position. Michigan is in the same division as OSU, a team that despises Michigan and gets up every single year for them. But in order to make the B10 championship game, let alone make the playoff, we need to beat OSU. Then we load our schedule up with other recruiting powerhouses like ND and PSU. And Michigan is MSU's superbowl every year. It makes it very difficult to get beyond 9-3 or 10-2.
November 28th, 2018 at 4:41 PM ^
Agree that recruiting is the main thing holding us back, but not sure that it has to do with academic issues. The fact is, M has been extremely average over the last decade and has been synonymous with dysfunction and unrealized potential.
Harbaugh took over a progam that was sick. He's building it back up, but it's going to take time. Also, let's keep in mind he's won 10 games in 3/4 years; at most other schools they'd build a statue for you for that kind of record.
I think as we rack up more 10+ win seasons and maintain continuity with the coaching staff we'll be able to make up ground quickly in the talent department, and that will certainly translate to results on the field.
November 28th, 2018 at 5:27 PM ^
We already are— Patterson chose us as a destination due to having that shot to be a playoff team. We haven’t had a decade advantage recruiting like OSU has, not to mention Meyer is a great recruiter. Not only have we made up ground since the Carr/Rich Rod days, but we’ve cut that “advantage” nearly in half.
Since day one, I’ve said Harbaugh should be given 2-full recruiting cycles (8-years).
November 28th, 2018 at 5:13 PM ^
That’s insane. What about the 12-1 Stanford team in 2010? They would have made the playoff and been a threat to any team that year. Michigan can [and will] be “elite” without sacrificing standards.
November 28th, 2018 at 5:14 PM ^
I'll be honest, I didn't read this, but it's sad that this fanbase continually has to resort to this kind of excuse to explain away failures like the OSU game. We looked better than Ohio State all season long, and then on one Saturday they totally destroyed us. Going into this game, did any of you think our academic standards were negatively affecting this team's chances against the Buckeyes?
November 28th, 2018 at 11:45 PM ^
Very well done! The only problem is why does it not apply to basketball?
answer: elite coaching. #Beilein
November 29th, 2018 at 9:41 AM ^
i've always always always been completely, 100% on the side of "no compromises." no reduced standards, no booster shit, no paying players, no shady coaches.
there were people that suggested rick pitino when we canned tommy amaker. there are people that are suggesting kliff goddamned kingsbury as offensive coordinator.
nope. nope, nope, nope.
last night's murder of north carolina (and, let's not forget, ol' teflon roy) at crisler should be the last time we ever hear those stupid arguments. we've got the cleanest coach in the country, and he's kicking the crap out of everyone in a sport that's exponentially sleazier. it can be done. it IS done.
November 29th, 2018 at 5:16 PM ^
I will take 10-2 and a Bowl win on a regular basis in exchange for Integrity.
December 2nd, 2018 at 11:46 AM ^
Sorry I can't agree that to become elite the team would have to stoop to paid players, lowered academic standards, and lowered character standards since in doing that you would not be elite anyway since character counts. Second you bring serious charges against other B10 schools, coaches and teams yet offer no proof that this is happening today. I know there have been problems in the past along the lines you speak of but no one is without sin. What I am saying is don't offer your personal opinion as proof against Saban, Meyer, Swinney, or any other coach.
To be truly elite there has to be adherence to standard and goals. Everyone can be elite and still lose a game or two per year and If recruits can't recognize being elite and have the character of accepting pay to play then why would they be wanted by an elite school anyway?
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