Steve Deace: The Reckoning

Submitted by Diagonal Blue on November 25th, 2018 at 12:10 PM

I love the Wolverines. For 35 years I’ve devoted as much time and treasure to that love as I have anything else on this earth, short of God and family. Come to think of it, since my relationship with the Wolverines predates both my relationship with my Savior and my wife and kids, Michigan actually ranks number one all-time in my affection. 

However, there’s a difference between being a customer and a cultist. Even though I’m a fan, I just can’t abide false premises, tribalism, and self-delusion, I don’t believe it’s my job to serve the interests of my favorite team. I believe it’s their job to serve our interests. These games are for the fans. We’re not always right, but we’re always the priority. For without us those stadiums aren’t full. There aren’t as many available scholarships. Those coaching salaries aren’t as extravagant. Those television rights fees aren’t even there. Try making all this money with just players’ families, coaches’ spouses, administrative family members, and those in close relationship to the university and you couldn’t. You’d be the Ivy League. 

The Sabbath was made for man, not man for the Sabbath. Likewise, Michigan and every other program is here for us, we’re not here for them. 

If you’re going to ask us to pay $100 bucks for a damned hoodie with your logo on it, then you’ve forfeited the right to be offended at honest opinions. This isn’t really amateurism, but big business. Therefore, the rest of this column will evaluate the multi-million-dollar enterprise known as Michigan football, and it’s seven-figure employees, accordingly. You don’t have to agree with that approach, but then you should probably stop reading now. 

For the rest of you spending the GDP of a third world country on your fandom and expecting a commiserate ROI, this will be broken down into several areas I believe need to be addressed. I’ll warn you right now, this is going to be long. 

Jim is Les, More or Less 

In 2007, Les Miles was the hottest coach in the country. The former Michigan assistant had brought Oklahoma State back to respectability, and was on the cusp of leading LSU to the national title. He was the fan’s and most of the former players’ choice to replace Lloyd Carr. The stories of why that desire was never consummated are now the stuff of message board legend. But there’s no need to wonder now what would’ve happened had Miles come home, for we now know. 

It would’ve pretty much become what Michigan football is now. 

A quirky and highly-successful yet painfully stubborn head coach who wants to win, yes, but wants to win a certain way even more. So when he can physically bully opponents he does with, as Harbaugh likes to say, “character and cruelty.” However, when faced with an opponent that can punch back, there’s no counter. Only repeated heads caving into immovable walls repeatedly. 

When you can recruit like LSU and Michigan can, you can win a lot of games this way. But in this era of multi-faceted college football, when you have to be able to win 14-10 one week and 38-34 the next, you’re not going to win a lot of championships. And that’s pretty much Jim Harbaugh. Everywhere he goes he wins a lot of games. He also doesn’t win a lot of championships. 

The dumb memes comparing his record to Brady Hoke and the like are vapid trolling. No one could rationally argue this program isn’t light years ahead of where it was when Harbaugh took over. There’s nothing wrong with being Marty Schottenheimer, Andy Reid, or Lloyd Carr for that matter. Those coaches provided their fan-bases a lot of fun on gamedays. They just weren’t elite coaches. 

Oh, I know Carr won 5 Big Ten titles, but he really only won two if you assess his tenure by today’s standard of no shared titles. I certainly think it’s possible Harbaugh could still win two Big Ten titles here, and even a national title, if he hangs around here for 13 years like Carr did. 

Most of Carr’s time here consisted of 9-10 win seasons. Only twice in 13 years did Carr go into the finale against Ohio State in the national title race. Ten of his 13 seasons finished with three losses or more, and he’s in the College Football Hall of Fame. 

We’re fortunate to have Jim, and if the worst problem I have as a fan is averaging 9.5 wins a season, then that’s a first world problem I can live with. However, as long as Urban Meyer is around the dream Harbaugh is going to usher in some era of dominance, let alone competitive balance, is clearly not happening. Best to adult here and just accept that. Meyer is simply superior to Harbaugh, who is superior to 80% of the coaches in college football. Similar to how Andy Reid is similar to 80% of the coaches in the NFL, but he’s not Bill Belicheck. 

That’s why Harbaugh is now the only coach in Michigan history to be 0-4 against Ohio State. The Buckeyes have the superior coach. That wasn’t as painful of a realization in the Carr era, before brutal social media and the playoff essentially meant you’re among the chosen four or a failure. So 10 wins in year four of the Harbaugh era isn’t as satisfying as it was when Carr did that in his fourth season back in 1998. 

Looking at Harbaugh’s coaching record, seasons like this being the norm is far more likely if we’re not going to modernize. Since Jim’s idea of modernization is essentially adding even more tight ends who either can’t catch or block, you can pretty much go get all the message board posts from 2001, substitute the name Carr for Harbaugh, and just cut and paste. 

Who Are We? 

We have one national title in 71 years. In the last 25 years, we (2) have fewer undisputed Big Ten titles than Wisconsin (3). We haven’t finished in the top 5 in the 21st century. Illinois has been to the Rose Bowl more recently than us. 

Remove the name “Michigan” and tell me if you believe those are the trappings of an elite program? That’s what I thought. 

I love Bo Schembechler, but when he retired I was a junior in high school. I’m now 45 years old. With three kids, the oldest a high school senior. Bo passed away five months before my son was born. He’s going to be 12 in February. 

There’s a difference between nostalgia and tradition. The latter inspires you to hold the line even when times are tough, because you’ve been successful before. Bo talks about that in his book. You build on tradition. 

Nostalgia, though, is paralyzing, creating hangers-on and fantasies about yesteryears that probably weren’t quite as good as you thought they were. You rest on nostalgia. 

Bo was also famously stubborn, but he also evolved. The coach who was “Little Woody” in 1969 left behind a multiple offense that either Michael Taylor or Elvis Grbac could quarterback 20 years later. His first three-time All-American was a wide receiver. He developed Michigan’s first #1 pick at quarterback (Harbaugh), and then recruited the guy who rewrote the passing record book (Grbac) as well as future Heisman Trophy winner Desmond Howard. 

Bo built on the tradition of Yost and Crisler, but he wasn’t paralyzed by it. We need to give ourselves permission to move on. Better yet, maybe Harbaugh does. 

Urban Meyer’s program looks nothing like Woody’s. Nick Saban’s program looks nothing like Bear Bryant’s. Pete Carroll’s USC looked nothing like John McKay’s. Make of that what you will. 

Gimmicky and Overrated 

We live in a time when certain moments/personas can go viral and become a meme, thus elevating them to a status their substance doesn’t justify. This perfectly defines defensive coordinator Don Brown. 

Instead of asking “why hasn’t he won the Broyles Award yet” we should be asking “is he the most overrated defensive coordinator in college football?” Well, let’s look at all the games Michigan has lost in his three seasons here: 

11/24/18: Michigan surrenders most points ever in a regulation game (62). 

9/1/18: Notre Dame quarterback Brandon Winbush, who was benched later in the season, has career-high 86 QBR. 

1/1/18: Defense blows 19-3 lead with 5:42 left in third quarter. 

11/25/17: Defense blows fourth quarter lead and surrenders 17 unanswered points to Ohio State’s redshirt freshman backup quarterback. 

11/18/17: Defense surrenders 17 unanswered points in a 24-10 loss to Wisconsin. 

10/21/17: Penn State gets 506 yards of offense, its most ever against Michigan. 

10/7/17: Michigan State gets two long scoring drives in first half before torrential downpour makes game basically unplayable. 

1/1/17: Defense can’t hold late lead versus Florida State, and Seminoles get longest passing TD in school history while jumping out to 17-3 first half lead. 

11/26/16: Defense gives up 13-play drive to Ohio State that sends game to overtime, and then fails to stop Ohio State from reaching the end zone on both of its overtime possessions. 

11/19/16: Defense fails to stop Iowa from driving for the winning field goal on the final possession. 

Take away that 2016 loss to Iowa, when the Hawkeyes had great field position on that final drive, and in every game Brown’s defense was either shredded and/or failed to make clutch plays when called upon. 

His scheme does a great job dominating undermanned teams without the skill talent to make Michigan pay in space. However, against teams that do, the results speak for themselves. He’s the defensive Rich Rodriguez. Whereas RichRod’s offense crushed anemic defenses in the Big East, Brown’s defense lockjaws the plodding second tier of the Big Ten. Yes, we dominated Nebraska and Penn State’s explosive offenses, when their quarterbacks weren’t healthy. Sparty’s offense is a train-wreck. Wisconsin panicked and stopped giving the ball to Jonathan Taylor. 

Brown’s scheme is a gimmick. While his old school persona is charming, he plays a video game style of defense that doesn’t work in the real world. Everything Gerry DiNardo at the Big Ten Network said was right. Again, the results speak for themselves. I mean, what gumshoe fan in the stands didn’t know Ohio State would attack us with crossing routes right away? Well, apparently it was a shock to Brown. 

If we had all these same results, and they came from a personality that wasn’t as flamboyant as Brown’s, what would we be saying? 

It’s a Brand, not a Rivalry 

Michigan-Ohio State is not a rivalry to anyone under the age of 35. It’s simply not a competitive series, and the Wolverines haven’t beaten an Ohio State team with something to play for in 15 years. Prospects signing LOIs next month have seen Purdue beat Michigan more than Michigan defeat Ohio State in their lifetimes. Who in the world calls that a rivalry on the merits? 

To everyone else, it’s a brand and an overblown one at that. It’s like the DCU compared to the MCU. While Superman and Batman are superior brands, few believe they’re better movies than Ant-Man. 

Conclusion 

It’s probably impossible not to overrate or over-criticize Michigan. We have one of the largest living alumni bodies in the world, as well as one of the largest fanbases in the sport. By nature everything we’d do would therefore cause an overreaction. Not to mention the temptation to provoke that overreaction in this click-bait = cash media climate. 

Thus, whether its folks saying Harbaugh sucks for clicks, or Michigan fans blowing his capabilities out of proportion out of nostalgia, the result is the same. Michigan is both overrated and underrated at the same time. Harbaugh has been better than his trolls claim, not as great as Michigan fans had hoped. 

For Michigan to win championships again, one of two things will have to happen: 

Urban Meyer retires. 

Michigan must modernize its offense while playing a realistic defense. 

Until one of those two things occur, this is a 9-10 win program under Harbaugh. Very good, yes, but not elite. 

That’s why tiny Northwestern will play in the Big Ten Championship Game before we do. 

They don’t have to go through Urban Meyer every year. We do.
 

https://collegesportsmaven.io/michigan/football/the-reckoning-Q3XRlf4Ag0arIS7VMm7qVQ/

Rose Bowl

November 25th, 2018 at 1:00 PM ^

Rose Bowl is awesome.  I'd take that 100 times over a weak game like the Peach Bowl.  If you've never been to a Rose Bowl you haven't experienced Michigan football.  Stinks that it's not for all the marbles but just take it for what it is.

His Dudeness

November 25th, 2018 at 12:54 PM ^

Comment #1 in that link is the only thing giving me pause. If we can collectively get past this without going insane and firing everyone (believe me I've thought about it) maybe we might compete next year and the year after with the back to back 5th ranked classes finally becoming upper classmen. 

MGlobules

November 25th, 2018 at 12:57 PM ^

I think there's a little more going on here, some of which Wojo gets at in this morning's column. Jim thought he could go in and play the way we had all year and win. It was a rude awakening, and pointed maybe as much to a little bit of arrogance--reading both our clippings and OSU's--as conservativism. 

I tend to be with Baumgardner and (indeed) Brian in thinking that what Warriner and Jim have come up with represents something very promising for our offense going forward. The problem is that we didn't utilize its promise yesterday. 

But just to play Devil's Advocate and challenge some of the thinking here, and pervasive on the board: What if we had played zone D from the start yesterday and/or the D had held up as in the first ten games? The offense might have been putting enough points on the board. 

The galling thing for me is that we came out at the start of the second half and continued to play the same game. It was as if Jim said we're only down six (was it six?) and we're going to stick with our plan, when opening it up was pretty obviously (now) required. A certain hubris there as well. 

I think there's a pretty good likelihood that there are no coaching changes this off-season. I think we've got a head coach for the forseeable future whether his vision can get us an NC or not. Anyone who thinks Cliff Kingsbury is walking through that door. .  .

Zeke21

November 25th, 2018 at 1:03 PM ^

Well written.

Totally disagree.

M can win and will WIN The Harbaugh Way.

Loyalty, Integrity and Character are always First at M. 
I hope they always will be.

shoes

November 25th, 2018 at 1:03 PM ^

I support my fellow Michigan fans right to vent, we certainly have earned it. I have been a fan just over 20 years longer than you have and thus have had all of your disappointments plus quite a few more.

A much younger version of myself once despaired that Bo couldn't win the Big One. At some point I realized that I still prefer getting in a position to win the big one than never getting to that point.

"One national title in 71 years" Ok,  or 2 in 72 years (even 3 in 73 by one measure). They are difficult and rare for almost all schools and 1997 was precious, and a season I am grateful to have fully experienced. I hope to experience that again. Jim Harbaugh is by most objective measures an excellent coach, one of the very best and he has proven it at multiple schools and in the NFL under different and sometimes challenging conditions. I feel fortunate that we have him. Don Brown, if he isn't the best DC is at least among the best.

We are not broken, far from it, and I look forward both to the next game, and the next season.

UWSBlue

November 25th, 2018 at 2:12 PM ^

I too have been a fan longer than the OP.  One of my most traumatic childhood experiences was the phantom Charles White TD in the '79 Rose Bowl.  There was constant mumbling during that period about Bo not winning the big one but I knew it would happen and he would win because "This Is Michigan."

My 11 year old is taking this very hard (we're in NYC and he's getting blasted by his classmates on Instagram who have no allegiance or affiliation to college football) and will likely look at this game the same way I look at '79.  It's almost 40 years later and the mumbling he's hearing is the same.  Perhaps arrogance is bliss but there is no doubt in this household it will happen and Harbaugh will win the big one because "This Is Michigan."

 

Go Blue

plamonge

November 25th, 2018 at 1:12 PM ^

Good column. I realized yesterday that we are never going to be Ohio state’s equal. Never. We may win once in a while but their program is among the three best in terms of talent and always will be. I know lots of anger will come my way for this but it’s reality. 

And you know what? That’s reality for every other big ten team and their fans too. Why stay in a conference where there’s an automatic loss for every team who plays them every year?

MadMatt

November 25th, 2018 at 1:18 PM ^

True, but you aren't dark enough.  I'm firmly in the camp "if Harbaugh can't fix it, no one can." Now however I'm coming round to the point of view that it's not "fixable," if that means winning at the top tier of college football.

You have to ask yourself, why are Saban and Meyer superior? I think the key is "winning with CHARACTER and cruelty."  (BTW, Les' OSU program was one of the least ethical programs around, and the less said of LSU and the SEC the better.)  Sure, roids, payola, and recruiting illiterate thugs have been around CFB for decades. The difference is that in our data driven analytics, moneyball society, the top organizations make sure every tool in the tool box, even the most unethical ones, will be used to the fullest extent. In our hyperefficient competitive world, you can only hang with OSU or Alabama by playing like them. I don't want Michigan going down that road, and I'm coming to terms with the idea Harbaugh may be more Ferenz than Saban.

In the meantime, our luck purely sucks. It sucks that the B1G East is so stacked, while the B1G West is a rotating participation trophy. It's boggling but true that since Michigan fired him, Rich Rodriguez has more Conference Game appearances than his two successors combined.  It sucks that OSU never, ever gets unlucky enough to lose against us, instead of PSU, MSU, Iowa, or PURDUE for the love of Pete! I don't know whether God hates Michigan, but I am confident Lady Luck is a Buckeye loving skank.

SD Larry

November 25th, 2018 at 1:25 PM ^

While Urban is clearly a good football coach, and while you make some good points, Urban is not the wizard you paint him to be vs. Harbaugh. 

When Harbaugh came to Michigan, OSU had a huge talent advantage yet somehow Michigan played very competitive games against OSU, and even had one stolen in Columbus in 2016 by some bad officiating in a very even game.  Last year in Ann Arbor, OSU had a decided athletic advantage and qb advantage in JT v. JOK at qb yet plays were actually there on the field to be had,  OSU won with decidedly better talent.

This year is a huge disappointment and I would agree OSU out schemed us, outplayed us, and made less mental mistakes (dropped passes, fielding kicks & stepping out of bounds, MA's, etc.  Going into the game, Michigan had played better football over the course of this season than OSU.  That is why most of the OSU fanbase and Vegas thought Michigan would win.  Unfortunately, OSU gelled before our eyes, played their best game of the year while Michigan played its worst.  This is really the first year in Harbaugh v Meyer where Harbaugh was outcoached in the game imho.   OSU came into the game as an underdog and played with a mental edge they had not displayed in the last few years.   OSU has had good athletes all along.  Michigan was close in 16 and this year that athletic gap was narrowed, but we got beat in all 3 phases of the game.  Sometimes college football is like that, but if Urban was a wizard,  OSU would not have taken the shutout beat down they took in the playoff game to Clemson in 2016, or the beat down they took at Purdue this year.  Urban is a great recruiter and OSU is loaded with speed and talent.  The gap is narrowing.  My take away from yesterday is Michigan did not handle being the favorite in this game well, and maybe wanted the game too much while OSU played with mental freedom of humbled expectations after the Purdue beatdown and the fortuitous escape at Maryland and made less mistakes.  College football.  Urban and OSU actually in a strange way benefited from some underperformance earlier this year.  I'm sure its  been tough to take for the players.  It sure has been us fans.  We need a breakthrough against OSU in the worst way.   Wish I had more of an answer, just not buying its Urban wizardry. This is the first year in the last four where OSU played with a mental edge over us, relative to our respective talent levels though imho. 

B1G or Bust

November 25th, 2018 at 1:48 PM ^

How is the gap narrowing?

We play McCurry, they play Paris Campbell.

They had 13 recruits last season ranked higher than our best recruit.  Their worst recruit was higher rated than half of our class.

Giving up 62 points to Ohio State In year 4 is not NARROWING the discrepancy between the two programs.  Thank God Meyer didn’t keep foot on the pedal like Franklin and actually opted to go into the victory formation while in our red zone to end the game.

0-4 against OSU is the first ever for a coach of our program. 16 of 18 is such an all time low.  We are not peers.

OSU is closer to Bama than we are to OSU.

SeattleWolverine

November 25th, 2018 at 2:23 PM ^

You're short-selling how good of a coach Meyer is. He's 84-9, that's a winning % over 90% at OSU. Throw in Florida and Utah and it's still 188-32 or 85%. He has 3 national championships and he's about to win his 7th conference title. He didn't just kill it at one school, he's won in 4 different places and Bowling Green and Utah were not exactly powerhouses when he got there plus he inherited the Ron Zook shitshow at Florida. The guy is a complete piece of shit as a human being but he's a historically great coach. Which is all really fucking annoying. 

UAUM

November 25th, 2018 at 1:42 PM ^

 Urban Meyer is retiring within the next six weeks. What do you think his wife was crying on the sidelines? I work with one of Urban’s surrogates and that’s what his surrogate told me two weeks ago. And that’s why Urban allow that writer to post an article about his health even know that writer is close to urban. 

charblue.

November 25th, 2018 at 2:29 PM ^

The Ohio State game is a zero sum contest. And if you embrace it as everything or nothing and you lose, as we have for far too long, nothing in your program is then viewed as successful. 

And apparently everything else you do in anticipation of playing that game is now regarded as window dressing or meaningless.

Except that, this game also means nothing if you don't prepare to play it by beating all the opposition that comes before. And so this game has become a playoff game that Michigan can't seem to win.

And if that's what is most important to this fan base, and it is, then you must evaluate your program to see how you make that happen and do whatever it takes to achieve it. That is the argument here, that not enough has been done, when under the Harbaugh era, the one constant for winning this game has been better OSU quarterback play. 

Still yesterday, Michigan got outplayed in every phase of the game which means that no matter what it had planned didn't work and yet the offense scored 39 points.

Division 1 college football is the only sporting enterprise the NCAA manages in which its championship competition is run like a beauty contest, not based on how many wins a team records but how it looks in doing that.

Which means that even though OSU has 11 wins and one loss and a win over 4th rated Michigan, there is still doubt whether it deserves going to the championship playoff.

And if the Buckeyes don't get there,it will be because in the run-up to playing their arch rival, they lost to unranked Purdue 49-20, a 29 point loss. How do you explain that or giving up 51 to Maryland and basically not more because the Terrapins didn't want to defend the Buckeyes anymore and hoped to win on a two-point conversion in overtime?

Simple. They were at home and were better prepared and more focused to play yesterday than those other Saturdays on the road. And so instead of giving up 50 points, they gave up 10 fewer points while their offense worked with perfection because their quarterback was never hurried in the pocket.

And because NCAA football is what it is, the pundits of the game will debate over whether two teams that play no defense are better fits in a championship thay have no shot at winning against two more complete teams, which we honestly thought Michigan might be before being unmasked again by the rivalry-fueled Buckeyes.

So, what kind of program do you want Michigan to be? Well, a complete team with great quarterback play which guarantees we  beat the shit out of Ohio State for once in our lifetime. I have been to two Michigan victories over them and they are sweet. But they are much sweeter because they lead to greater glory. And there is only one way to get there, beat them at their own game while still beating all the rest who come before.

 

Richard75

November 25th, 2018 at 2:44 PM ^

Illinois has been to the Rose Bowl more recently than us. 

So annoying when points like this are made without context.

That Illinois team didn’t win the Big Ten. They only went to Pasadena because OSU was in the title game. So, it was the same as reaching the Orange or the Sugar (both of which U-M has played in since that time) or whichever New Year's Six game U-M makes this season (which may very well be the Rose).

Also, Michigan beat Illinois that year!

BenHogan1

November 25th, 2018 at 2:54 PM ^

No championship rings unless Harbaugh changes. 

The only question is whether he sees it this way too, and turns the reigns over to the next Lincoln Riley or [fill in the blank]. 

Sad UM Fan

November 25th, 2018 at 4:15 PM ^

Best thing I have read in a long time on here. The fact that you speak the truth about Carr and the current state of the program is refreshing. Harbaugh is an okay Michigan Man and that is it. 

The biggest question is who can beat Urban Meyer on the field and on the recruiting trail? Find that person and hire them. Problem is it will never happen because it has to be "A Michigan Man".

Surprised that the Mods or Brian the dictator have not removed this yet. 

 

BlueGoM

November 25th, 2018 at 9:00 PM ^

boilerplate sportsball talk

"modernize the offense"

this always means throw more.  Because that's what OSU did this year, right?  clearly we have to emulate them.

" Brown’s scheme is a gimmick. "

"video game"

Is Deace channeling his inner Valenti?

This isn't hard to figure out.  OSU has better athletes at every spot, in depth.  They're Alabama.  We've developed an upper crust of good talent, just like we had in 2006.  This year OSU spotted talent mismatches again, just like OSU and USC did in '06.

The only way out of this is to get better athletes.  Top level guys at every spot.  People are complaining about coaching with no solution - who's the miracle coach who will fix everything? 

 

303john

November 26th, 2018 at 10:15 AM ^

Michigan hasn't been the same since Tressel made the speech during the OSU Basketball game. Michigan Blinked. Deace is correct. Until Jim and the rest of the Program embrace the rivalry with an enthusiasm unlike any other we can expect more losses like this.