October 16th, 2018 at 10:42 AM ^
yeah i am pretty freaked out not gonna lie
October 16th, 2018 at 10:45 AM ^
Me too... still traumatized by being at last year's game, and not because of the rain but bc of our awful playmaking.
October 16th, 2018 at 11:19 AM ^
This is a different team this year
October 16th, 2018 at 11:50 AM ^
Amen to that. Even with our play calling and QB last year it was still a close game. With this team we have now, if they keep that fire, there is no way we lose.
October 16th, 2018 at 12:56 PM ^
Partly cloudy with a chance of trash storms
October 16th, 2018 at 11:13 AM ^
Yesterday the weather channel said 20% chance of rain and no wind. Let's wait for a Friday forecast before we care about the weather - it's just throwing shit against a wall this far out.
October 16th, 2018 at 11:18 AM ^
Valid point, however it's generally not a good sign that the weather prediction has gotten worse as we've gotten closer to the weekend.
Had Monday's forecast been today's and then Tuesday been slightly better, you could project the conditions getting better and better as the days draw on. Getting worse is not a good sign even this far out.
October 16th, 2018 at 11:36 AM ^
Agreed. IMO this plays right into spartys hand. Even though they can’t run for shit.
October 16th, 2018 at 11:55 AM ^
The weather is the same for both teams. If you want to be considered championship caliber you do what you have to do to win.
October 16th, 2018 at 12:38 PM ^
Disagree. Weather increases variance without respect to quality of play - more random events like dropped passes, fumbles, slips, etc. That has nothing to do with skill and tends to give worse teams a better chance given they need more variance in order to beat a better team.
October 16th, 2018 at 2:46 PM ^
It's not a MSU v. Michigan thing.
Look at MSU v. Maryland last year. Maryland was down to Bortenschloger (sp) at Spartan Stadium and almost pulled that upset because of the snow. Play that game in dry conditions and MSU's offense can actually throw against 9 man boxes and not fumble/slip in the open field.
October 16th, 2018 at 1:07 PM ^
They are sprinkling the clouds up there
October 16th, 2018 at 11:36 AM ^
I don't know much of the technical aspects of weather and forecasting, but I can recall as many times that the weather has been better than forecasted as I can times that it's been worse.
October 16th, 2018 at 2:31 PM ^
Actually it didn’t. It said winds 20 gusts to 30. 20% chance of rain.
October 16th, 2018 at 10:44 AM ^
Can we get decent weather against these bastards for a change?
October 16th, 2018 at 10:53 AM ^
I agree, 2015 and 2016 was such a long time ago...Haha. On a serious note, I think the only two times that the weather sucked was 2011 and last year.
October 16th, 2018 at 12:06 PM ^
It took a long time for my rear end to thaw out after sitting in the stands for that 2015 game. That was an unseasonably cold, windy day for mid-October.
October 16th, 2018 at 12:09 PM ^
2013 was rainy too
October 16th, 2018 at 11:00 AM ^
The forecast I've been watching calls for rain to be done by the afternoon, a little sunshine, no mention of gusty winds. I don't think it will be too bad.
October 16th, 2018 at 11:14 AM ^
Where did you find that? I just checked weather dot com. Was hoping this thread would elicit any MGoMeteorologists.
October 16th, 2018 at 11:47 AM ^
Weather.gov (NOAA/NWS)
October 16th, 2018 at 12:39 PM ^
Not just for games, but the NWS site should be everyone's go-to for weather information and climate data.
This has been an LSA PSA.
October 16th, 2018 at 1:10 PM ^
As Ron Howards brother would say: "Weather.com Sucks!!"
October 16th, 2018 at 12:57 PM ^
Are you actually Loy or did you just cop his name?
October 16th, 2018 at 10:44 AM ^
So we just have to beat them up in the trenches. Sounds like even more fun.
October 16th, 2018 at 11:00 AM ^
Before the Wisconsin game I really didn't think that would be possible. Now...
October 16th, 2018 at 11:17 AM ^
I still don't trust that it will go well. Maybe fine, but not exceptional.
MSU's DL > Wisconsin DL by a wide margin.
MSU LBs have less holes than Wisconsin's (Connelly and Edwards being really freaking good) and will depend on that group less sans Bachie.
October 16th, 2018 at 10:44 AM ^
WTF. WHY!
UGH.
October 16th, 2018 at 10:45 AM ^
Not sure who this favors. Msu cant run and they have the best rushing defense.
October 16th, 2018 at 10:52 AM ^
My eye-test says they don't truly have the best run defense. I would love to see them play Wisconsin this year.
They have a good run defense, but it is ranked the best because they pass defense is atrocious... Teams are much more likely to pass on 1st and 2nd down, when you gain more YPC on average.
October 16th, 2018 at 10:55 AM ^
Right, in 1 game, Penn State doubled their total run yardage given on the season. And they've given up 270 yards or more passing in 4/6 games.
October 16th, 2018 at 11:03 AM ^
The two big runs PSU had was because they sold out to stop the pass. Other than that, PSU had pretty much nothing going on the ground. Obviously those two runs count, but they likely don't happen in a game where they're expecting the run more than the pass (ie Michigan in a rainy/windy game).
If this weather holds true, this game is probably in the low 20's/high teens in scoring.
Edit* The 80 yard run was selling out for the pass. The other run was a Barry Sanders type effort, which I am not sure Karan Higdon or Evans can do
October 16th, 2018 at 11:21 AM ^
You can't just dismiss big plays like this. If you have a defense which is selling out that completely for a pass (and I didn't see the game, so don't know), you're gambling. So if a more conservative defense would have allowed only 20 yards on that play, it would have allowed perhaps more on the other plays. It would average out to the same.
You can't dismiss an unsound defense that allowed huge plays as still a really good defense, because, you know, stopping big plays is a part of defense. In many coaching circles that's the first order of defense.
October 16th, 2018 at 12:14 PM ^
I am not. They gave up the plays and they count.
PSU brings a different level of explosiveness than Michigan. They have bigger "home run" threats, if you will. The main point is I don't see Michigan getting those home runs against MSU, especially if the weather holds true to the current forecast.
October 16th, 2018 at 12:46 PM ^
Not sure where or how you attained that moniker. But I can prove to you that you are in fact mostly pessimistic and positively wrong about PSU has bigger,”home run threats!” I’ll allow you to explain your version of home run threats, first! I can only think of two for PSU. I can name four to five players for Michigan. I’ll wait.
October 16th, 2018 at 1:32 PM ^
I'm talking about the ability to burn you, get huge plays, long touchdowns, etc. PSU seem to be smaller but a lot quicker than Michigan. I don't have a stopwatch on me when I watch the games, but it's just from my eye test watching these teams the past couple seasons.
I did not go into depth on how many big plays they have, but PSU is averaging more yards in catches and run attempts. PSU also has 5 different receivers with 40 yard+ catches, with two having 90+ yard touchdowns (Michigan has 3 with 40+, with a long of 56).
PSU has 4 different players with 50+ yard runs, and Michigan has 2 (with another 44 from McCaffrey). But I just don't see Patterson busting out a huge run against MSU, and I don't see McCaffrey even playing in this game (they account for two of the three 40+ yard runs, and McSorley is the only QB that accounts for a 50+ yarder)
This is strictly eye test and some base level stats, so prove me wrong if you can go more in depth.
October 16th, 2018 at 11:36 AM ^
I am not sure why you were downvoted. Look at their opponents (ranking is YPG):
USU - 41st
ASU - 65th
CMU - 101st
Indiana - 93rd
NW - 129th
PSU - 12th
Most teams they played aren't good at running the ball and even the teams good at running the ball put up those numbers against Kent State and New Mexico State. I don't think they are bad against the run, just that they may not be as good as their stats say and I have seen their DL get pushed around quite a bit.
October 16th, 2018 at 11:16 AM ^
I think we are better-equipped to handle not having a passing offense, but it also will make the score tighter than it would be otherwise if the passing game is taken away.
So, we have the advantage, but it'll be less of an advantage than we would have in clear weather, if that makes sense.
October 16th, 2018 at 11:27 AM ^
MSU rush defense allows 2.34 yrds/rush
UM rush offense gets 5.35 yrds/rush
Average = 3.8 yrds/rush
UM rush defense allows 3.07 yrds/rush
MSU rush offense gets 3.42 yrds/rush
Average = 3.25 yrds/rush
We should expect to have a pretty good advantage in the run game. Not to mention, restricting offenses to running usually means more punting, which we should net 10-15 yards per exchange.
October 16th, 2018 at 11:46 AM ^
MSU. Because they will inexplicably find a way to run the ball this weekend. I think it was 2011 where their line was in shambles and we had Mike Martin & RVB and they still did surpisingly well
October 16th, 2018 at 3:15 PM ^
A natural turf field is going to help Sparty because they are accustomed to it, and because it will minimize Michigan's advantage in team speed. If it's wet this is all even more to their advantage.
If the ball is wet it can reduce the effectiveness of the passing game. I call this a wash, because while Michigan should be able to exploit their secondary, State's only chance to move the ball is through the air.
I hope that Warriner and Harbaugh are really putting the O-Line to the challenge this week. They need to win the line of scrimmage in this game and I believe they are playing with a lot of confidence right now. I think we're going to see a lot of Ben Mason too.
October 16th, 2018 at 10:45 AM ^
This is Michigan, That weather could be changed in the blink of an eye
October 16th, 2018 at 10:46 AM ^
This might actually favor us a bit? They threw 50 times against PSU because they don't have a running game. It papers over their defensive weaknesses if it's too windy to throw effectively, but I think our offense is better equipped to run on them than the other way around.
October 16th, 2018 at 10:48 AM ^
They also threw over 50 times against Northwestern. They have major issues running the ball. Even if they get LJ Scott and one of their lineman back they will be pass heavy.
October 16th, 2018 at 10:52 AM ^
I think this favors us as well. They cant run the ball for shit so this will make passing even more difficult for them.
As long as Harbaugh doesnt channel his inner Al Borges and attempt to trickerize them by drawing up a game plan where we throw the ball 40+ times while wearing god-ugly bumblebee alternative jerseys I think we're gonna be all right.
October 16th, 2018 at 11:13 AM ^
That game plan was ridiculous because UM had a great rushing offense (I think two 1000 yard rushers that year and #4 in Rushing S&P+). MSU had the #5 rushing S&P plus defense that year. So passing, especially when you're QB is Denard, was crazy.
This year, however, the rush offense is not as good (no offensive S&P breakdown like that yet, so don't have a national ranking, but it's probably in the 30's or something based on the four factors that go into it). And the passing offense by an efficiency standard, is much better. Pair that with MSUs run defense being the best in the nation, and their pass defense being significantly worse, the game plan should be to heavily favor the pass. So the bad weather is significantly worse for us.
For MSU it won't matter because they can't do much on offense in any kind of weather except trick plays and throw it up to Felton Davis and hope me makes a circus catch. So a crappy game tilts it to MSU which such weather will usually do; it leads to more variance which can make it easier for the underdog to win.
October 16th, 2018 at 5:02 PM ^
No offense man, but I'm not sure how to feel about you being optimistic.
October 16th, 2018 at 10:57 AM ^
I've been debating this in my head, but I think it favors MSU. This is the type of game they win. An ugly slog against a good team. These have been Dantonio's signature wins. They depend on the pass more than UM, but I don't think either team is going to be able to throw consistently in this game. If it comes down to a few chucks deep to turn the game...well Lewerke/Davis have show that can work for MSU far more consistently than anyone on UM. Plus MSU will always have it's reserve of weird stuff just for UM. Won't be much, but it will be enough to turn the tide in a low scoring, ugly affair.
October 16th, 2018 at 11:25 AM ^
I honestly can't think of any weather scenario that benefits a one dimensional msu. I sat thru the monsoon last year and we lost due to horrible QB play.
October 16th, 2018 at 1:01 PM ^
I would say we lost because of 5 turnovers. Sure 3 were INTs, but still lost two fumbles. And guess what happens in bad weather? More chance for TOs. They could go in UMs favor, but since UM is the better team, I would rather have good weather and less variance and UM just win by being better. More variance is more chance for a crappier MSU team to get those big swings in their favor.