Morning After Thoughts and Observations
I know there are Snowflakes threads but sometimes a night of "sleep" (Read: Angrily passing out) helps to clarify a loss like that and I have some taeks that I am going to throw out here to help me process it and hopefully generate some rational discussion after the typical fan base rage-out on the night of.
On a dong-punch scale, last night was like a 6. It sucks to lose, and it really sucks to lose to ND, but if you are going to lose, lose early, and make it to a ranked team while you are at it. It may be that this team is not very good, it may also be that it ran into a buzzsaw in the first half last night and will actually be quite good. In any case, a loss like this is not a "season ender." Just keep your radio off of local sports talk for the next couple of weeks and it will relatively easy to move from this one relatively easily. As far as the WTF was that odds and ends go:
1. Notre Dame looked pretty good. I really like their receivers and their defense was stellar everywhere. I was also taken aback by their team speed. We seemed a step behind them all the time even when our coaches had diagnosed something correctly on either side of the ball. I know it is early but I think ND is going to make some relevant noise this season.
2. I am really not a fan of the "defense was it usual dominant self, just look at the drive chart" narrative. In the MSU, PSU games from last year, and the game last night, our defense got gashed during the "money" stages of the game. Our defensive ends are over-pursuing in the backfield to a "lol omg" extent and good coaches are eating our lunch. It does not say anything about our defense when opposing offenses shut things down with big leads because they know we can't score on them. We have some really good players on defense but good coaches have the scheme downloaded and Brown needs to make some tweaks. He puts way to much pressure on the secondary to be in flawless position all the time and they simply can't be. Sometimes it is enough to keeps things in front of you. We are constantly vulnerable to back-breaking big chunk plays and they are increasingly looking routine against us. Kelly worked Brown last night in the first half. (I will note, there will come a time when every moonball thrown by an opposing QB doesn't land heartbreakingly right in the hands of a falling down receiver).
3. I disagree with any take that calls our players out for being "entitled" and playing "soft." This "we don't play with a chip on our shoulder" is non-sense. Our players are giving 110% on every play and wanted that game badly, almost too much. Which brings me to this point. What I see out of our players is a noticeable lack of discipline. I know it is hard to believe, but there are fans of other teams who don't have to hold off on celebrating a 3rd down stop until they look around frantically to see if there is a flag. Plays like Bush PF against State last year, Winovich last night, the multiple roughing the kickers that have cost us dearly in the last 3 years. These plays cannot and should not happen. Since Harbaugh took over, we have been handing teams gifts in the form of crushing penalties at key times. Under Harbaugh, we seem to be drastically lack mental discipline and that is very surprising to me. If anything, I thought that Harbaugh was very detail oriented by these teams are anything but that.
4. Unless our offensive line drastically improves, I am not sure what any QB we have can do. We don't get consistent push to run the ball and the QBs are immediately under pressure from everywhere. Patterson looked pretty good but the kid can't work miracles. Half the time he was not even getting time to make one read.
4. On a lighter note, McCaffrey looked pretty damn good in a very difficult spot. Nico Collins looked the part. I liked the read option and RPO stuff early. The team collectively got swarmed and was kind of scrambling after the first quarter so to a large extent we went away from it, but I would like to see more of that going forward.
TL;DR - Everybody has tomorrow off so we get an extra day to drink this one away. Cheers. Go Blue.
September 2nd, 2018 at 12:10 PM ^
Rudddddddddock was not much of a QB vs Utah, but Rudock really stepped up his game thereafter!!
September 2nd, 2018 at 2:19 PM ^
I thought Shea played very well considering he had little blocking and no run game. The offensive game plan was generally weak too.
I am more concerned about what is going through his head. He was clearly mad at the guys on offense with him.
That anger could be really good or really bad.
September 2nd, 2018 at 9:59 AM ^
I, for one, appreciate the new threads this morning because with MGoBlog 3.0 I can't go into last night's snowflake threads and easily figure out which comments are new. This is a way to gauge folks' perspective after a night of (restless) sleep.
September 2nd, 2018 at 10:06 AM ^
That is kind of why I posted this. People are losing their shit in the snowflake threads and everybody is drunk. I don’t even get on the blog the night of a loss because I would rather miss all the rage-posting and pick it up in the morning.
September 2nd, 2018 at 10:15 AM ^
Sunday Snowflakes, then?
Just as grumpy, but with less alcohol.
September 2nd, 2018 at 10:40 AM ^
I don't blame you, because I don't do it either. I figure that the last thing any drunken rage-fest needs is one more loud voice.
But with the perspective that comes with a night's sleep, a pot of coffee, and three aspirin, three takes:
1. It sure is nice to have a QB who can actually hit a receiver where he can catch it, and pick up a first down. After last season, I'd almost forgotten what one looked like (and it looks like we have two).
2. I'll accept that Don Brown might be a defensive genius, like many have said. But it sure would be nice if he could be a genius in the first half, before his defense gives up 21 points.
3. For a QB who couldn't throw, Brandon Wimbush sure did learn in a hurry. Some of his passes were right on the proverbial dime. And if I were an Irish fan, I'd be thrilled about having a QB who can pull off a QB draw on 3rd and 18 for a first down. (Of course, as a Michigan fan, I was something less than thrilled.)
September 2nd, 2018 at 10:03 AM ^
Dropped INT by Long(?) on first drive was an indicator of things to come. Then Hawkins allowing ball to go through his hands on ND’s last TD. Then Bush just barely failing to cause Windbush to fumble on sack on ND’s lone second half points.
This defense has consistently not made plays when it absolutely needed to for years. Brown hasn’t changed that.
McCaffery did look confident. He looked like he belonged out there. Encouraging.
OL is a killer. I don’t how you fix it i season save going full Moorhead.
September 2nd, 2018 at 10:23 AM ^
I don’t how you fix it i season save going full Moorhead.
That is instructional though . . . PSU's OL was as pathetic as ours (remember our absolute beat down of them?), but Moorhead did change things up enough to mitigate that. Their OL never really got much better, but they won the Big Ten with it.
Saquon Barkley ain't walking through that door, but there still are some things you can do to help mitigate a poor OL situation that isn't going to change before 3 more years of recruiting and development.
September 2nd, 2018 at 3:37 PM ^
We'll never get a Moorhead because Harbaugh is running the offense. That's what we signed up for with Harbaugh. He's gotta fix it or we have to get a new HC, which prolly isn't happening.
September 2nd, 2018 at 11:01 AM ^
Loved the way Dylan stepped up in the pocket instead of trying to escape it backwards.
September 2nd, 2018 at 11:25 AM ^
It was Hill who dropped the int on the first possession. Then Hawkins dropped two more. Their first two TDS should have been erased. Who knows what would have happened after that but those are the crucial breaks that keep going against us.
September 2nd, 2018 at 12:00 PM ^
It’s not the breaks, it is failing to make plays.
Thats all the difference in the world.
September 2nd, 2018 at 10:10 AM ^
We'll probably need 2 or 3 Qb's again. Poor Shea.
September 2nd, 2018 at 10:15 AM ^
1. A schedule bookended by ND in the beginning and OSU at the end is stupid.
2. Our defense is easy to scheme against for good teams.
3. ND isn't a great team but we made them look good.
September 2nd, 2018 at 10:24 AM ^
ND isn't a great team but we made them look good.
Just returning the favor.
September 2nd, 2018 at 10:24 AM ^
Everybody is touting Wimbush but his best pass was an arm-punt into double coverage that should have been picked.
ND will lose to 3 out of Stanford, VT, Florida State and USC. Not to mention they play at NW, who has one of the better front 7s in the Big10.
My prediction is that ND finishes the season ranked around 20-22.
September 2nd, 2018 at 10:24 AM ^
The players need a very short memory (namely Patterson) and the coaching staff needs to figure out a better plan (both sides of the ball — more creative/aggressive O, less aggressive more fundamentally sound D).
Now, who’s ready to turn on the tube and watch some Miami/LSU tonight??
September 2nd, 2018 at 10:25 AM ^
My observations:
1.) ND’s linemen were in superior physical shape. I knew when I saw Ben Bredeson put on 30 lbs that it was not good. Linemen need to be able to move well in this day and age. The strength gains mean nothing if you can’t move. Other than Ruiz, and possibly Runyan whose playing out of place, our OL are carrying too much weight. Especially, if we want to run the spread.
2.) Play calling was still weak and too conservative. I understand being down 14 and all but with no downfield threat our offense is far too easy to defend. We didn’t utilize Shea’s abilities enough.
3.) Win or lose, it was pure stupidity to let ND back onto the schedule. We play in the toughest division in the nation in a conference that does us zero favors as far as the schedule. This one is on Harbaugh and to a lesser extent Manuel.
4.) Still too many TE’s and not enough WR who are playmakers. I thought Gentry was a big disappointment and McKeon just isn’t very good IMO.
5.) Didn’t utilize Chris Evans enough and Higdon still doesn’t want to block even though he’s cut from granite.
6.) The 2 minute drill was a joke. That’s on Harbaugh.
7.) Patterson was decent, but I think you see the propensity to turn the ball over. His height doesn’t help in this regard. He’s listed at 6’2” but looks 5’11 to me. McCaffrey should be #2 and he should also play a few series a game.
8.) Our defense is overrated. They’ll be good, but until they can stop the big play and play better at crucial junctions, they aren’t approaching great.
9.) Too many penalties. This is also on Harbaugh.
10.) Biggest disappointment was hearing how much better the team had improved and then watching them lay an egg. My faith in our staff took a big hit.
September 2nd, 2018 at 10:41 AM ^
I agree wholeheartedly with #4. You can’t base your passing game on big, lumbering Tightends and expect to have a dynamic passing game. There’s just way too much of the underneath stuff going on. Too many 5 yard pass plays to the sideline.
Harbaugh’s WR recruiting has been abysmal. I love DPJ, but I don’t see enough after the catch ability. And he’s the 5 Star guy. He just doesn’t make guys miss tackles.
September 2nd, 2018 at 10:55 AM ^
Collins caught a 50 yard bomb, Martin made a few plays, and DPJ was open on an overthrown ball.
The jury is out on on his WR recruiting. We’ll see how the ‘17 class progresses.
September 2nd, 2018 at 11:08 AM ^
Agree with almost everything. I’ve been thinking the same thing with #10 and just can’t understand how every year they’re so drastically improved when they clearly aren’t. Not just coaches but the Sam Webb’s of the world who clearly exist to report the messages the staff wants and not what’s real.
September 2nd, 2018 at 10:27 AM ^
Even with the hideous play from our tackles, that level of play from our quarterbacks (67% completion and 249 yards passing) will probably be enough to win most of our games if we can run the ball and if our defense doesn't totally crap its pants like it did in the first Q. I don't see us facing another opponent that can stuff us like that until Wisconsin, so we have the next 5 games to either get better with the guys we have or to break in Hudson. I don't see true freshman Mayfield being an answer this year.
Regarding the defense, I don't know what to think. On the one hand, we were in position and dropped several interceptions while also watching ND make some great circus catches in traffic. The TD bomb over Hawkins should have been an interception instead of a TD. On the other hand, big plays have happened in the past. Was tonight's game what we can expect for the year? I don't think so. I think the 1st Q was just an unfortunate combination of the types of plays that will rarely happen.
September 2nd, 2018 at 11:09 AM ^
The defense gave up too many stupid personal fouls and other assorted gifts to keep giving ND life. Hawkins probably wouldn't have been covering the TD play if Metellus hadn't gotten the boot for targeting. We did a good job of beating ourselves at times. QB contain was not good with Wimbush. Need to play smarter after you've been burned a few times by QB runs on 3rd down. Defense must be believing its own hype. Tone it down.
OL still a mess. Not a good idea to take a patchwork line and play a quality opponent in game 1. I've never been a fan of playing ND to open the season. Can't remember if Bo ever figured that out, but Moeller sure did. ND has good talent and it showed. Hopefully, they can sort this out over the next three weeks before going on the road to NW. Looking forward to the UFR to see who the most egregious offenders were, but maybe we'll see James Hudson at RT against Western Michigan. I saw same bad TE blocking attempting to help on the edge and two guys blocking the same guy while the adjacent lineman ran free into the backfield. Ugh! We are going to find out if Warriner is a magician. I really hope he is.
Patterson can sling the ball. McCaffrey played well and clearly was not overwhelmed with the moment. That was encouraging. They just need some help.
Nico Collins looked good. May be more than adequate to fill the gap with Black's injury.
Play calling seemed strange at times, but some of it had to be due to trying to cover for the OL. Turns out you can't play call your way out of 4 guys in the backfield making life miserable for the QB. Still, one long shot down the field was about it for the night IIRC. You've got to do that more often and in the first quarter would be helpful to get the safeties to back off early.
Also, I avoided the snowflake threads last night. Just didn't want to read all the meltdowns and bickering. Morning after is usually better.
September 2nd, 2018 at 11:54 AM ^
one long shot down the field was about it for the night IIRC. You've got to do that more often and in the first quarter would be helpful to get the safeties to back off early.
Problem is you can't! 90% of the time Shea would barely be even finishing his drop on a 3-5 step and there'd be someone in his face already. How are you going to hit a long-developing bomb when he barely had time to make one read for a short pass???
September 2nd, 2018 at 12:41 PM ^
They started in shotgun. That negates the drop time. Jut seemed to be a bunch of dink and dunk calls in the first half.
September 2nd, 2018 at 11:41 AM ^
Two "on the other hands"?
Do you work in a carnival?
September 2nd, 2018 at 10:29 AM ^
This board can be a bit dramatic after losses. I think that was about how I expected a loss to go. A win would have been Hawkins making that pick, no fire on the 2nd FGA, and a heroic defensive stand at the end. It didn't work out that way. I wish we could can the dark cloud and Harbaughceutical talk. More than anything this loss to me feels like Utah 2015.
September 2nd, 2018 at 12:30 PM ^
Just as pissed as anyone but you sum it up well. Make those damn defensive plays, you are there ....the ball is in your hands! I love Brown but our D seems to give up 2-3 scores before figuring it out
But feels very similar to Utah and i remember that one hurting pretty bad as well
I dunno, what can we do but just hope it gets better? Sucks to say but there it is
hopefully we can all keep it civil on here, ignore the outside crap, and just wish this week goes by vary fast and we can start to get this taste out
Goal is the B1G championship and it’s still infront of us
Washington just took a dong punch to their whole playoff hopes misery loves company right?
September 2nd, 2018 at 10:33 AM ^
Talk all the shit you want about the D, but they were top 5 the last two years with the "ridiculous overpursuit"
... But if making some mistakes in the first game of the season against a top 15 team is unacceptable for you, i totally understand man.
September 2nd, 2018 at 11:43 AM ^
The interior of the DL was not getting any push that left lateral lanes for Wimbush to squirt out of.
Need a lot of improvement from Dumfour and Solomon.
September 2nd, 2018 at 10:34 AM ^
I thought we’d be so much better because of the before-and-after shirtless pics of how muscular our players got. It turns out Notre Dame lifts weights too.
September 2nd, 2018 at 10:37 AM ^
We need a South Africa trip. We can formulate a program there
September 2nd, 2018 at 10:38 AM ^
Obviously last night was upsetting, and I expected a much better showing than we got, especially from the defense. Part of me wants to give up on the season, but I've watched enough football to know that the only certainty is that there are no certainties.
It was delusional to think Warinner could have come in and "fixed" the offensive line from day one. But there's nothing about last night that would indicate he's a failure. Guys can improve throughout the season, especially freshmen, and we have two tackles that are young and could be quite effective by the end of the season. I'm assuming the personnel decision was about having more veteran guys on the field on the road like this. Now we have a stretch of games to give the young guys some experience.
I'm really concerned with how easily ND had their way with our defensive line. Gary and Winovitch looked like two average defensive ends and hardly put on pressure. And the worst case scenario with Aubrey and Dwumfour was on display. I didn't see them holding up against the run at all. I'm not too concerned about the secondary because it really seemed like they got fortunate on a few of those early pass plays.
I haven't given up on the season. Plenty of coaches have been in similar situations and come through. And we have a lot of areas that should improve.
September 2nd, 2018 at 10:48 AM ^
What? Winovich was in ND’s backfield most the night. The tackles did fine vs run. ND averaged 2.8 yards per rush with Wimbush doing most of the damage. There issues were not collapsing the pocket well enough thus allowing Wimbush to escape.
September 2nd, 2018 at 11:18 AM ^
I hope you're right. Maybe the beer and Johnnie Walker clouded my vision
September 2nd, 2018 at 10:47 AM ^
Is there any actual reason to have hope for this program? This will be Michigan’s best team for the next 3 years atleast and it looks like we are a 7-8 win team.
This program is just dead, man
September 2nd, 2018 at 10:51 AM ^
Projecting out what a team will look like is a fool’s errand.
Take some anti-depressants, dude.
September 2nd, 2018 at 11:51 AM ^
I am sure those significantly worse recruiting classes will result in better players than we have now.
September 2nd, 2018 at 10:52 AM ^
My hot takes...
1. Shea was a significant upgrade and plays with confidence and command of the offense. He is more accurate. However his ability to minimize our weakness at o-line is not as much as I'd hoped. He won't be our savior.
2. We really miss Hurst. We got gashed up the middle. I don't see the Solomon I expected and Dwumfor has not yet lived up to the hype.
3. Our CBs weakness are tall physical WRs. Luckily I don't think anyone else on our schedule has the size at WR ND does.
4. I expected our LBs to seem fast and athletic and I didn't see that. That could be a compliment to Wimbush as a runner.
5. I expected Gentry to provide more of matchup problem. Again, this could be more of a compliment to NDs LBs and safeties, but was disappointing.
6. Our offense has improved but defenses can still stack the box and we can't seem to stretch the defense.
7. No QB will be able to do much until our o-line gets better.
8. ND was all around better than expected and seems to matchup well against us.
9. We are not a 10-11 win team or playoff contender. We are an 8-9 win team. Our goal should be 2nd in the division. We could be 4th.
10. Hopefully we can improve as the season wears on, keep one QB, and play within the same general offense to develop an identity that if we rep all year will improve. Hopefully we can get some leads against the worse teams on the schedule so we can develop Hudson and Mayfield and they can do more than Runyan and JBB and displace them the second half of the season.
September 2nd, 2018 at 11:46 AM ^
Improved offense?
Did we not run for 6 ypc against OSU last year?
September 2nd, 2018 at 3:44 PM ^
Yes, now go look at the rest of the seasons box scores of defenses with a pulse.
September 2nd, 2018 at 10:57 AM ^
There was chatter about Mayfield maybe taking the job from JBB after the first game. Like they didn’t want to overload Mayfield on the road against ND, and then would work him in. I wonder what we see the next couple of weeks on the O Line. The O Line is prolly the hardest thing to watch because Harbaugh has had great success with it everywhere he has been and now can not even find functioning tackles after 4yrs
September 2nd, 2018 at 11:02 AM ^
I'm still nervous about throwing a true freshman out there full-time this early. Hopefully we go up big over the next few games and can test them out in garbage time. I don't see any of the next few teams we face stopping our running game, so we should be able to go up big. I do think Runyan needs to go immediately, since he doesn't really give us anything. Hudson has the frame and athleticism. Go with him and take the growing pains that come with it.
September 2nd, 2018 at 12:03 PM ^
now can not even find functioning tackles after 4yrs
Waaaaaaay too many recruiting whiffs plus Newsome injury. The former is squarely on the coaches and we all knew it was going to come back to bite the team in the ass. And here we are, every other position group looks solid of offense... except the OL, which largely negates the growth and improvement from the other groups.
September 2nd, 2018 at 10:57 AM ^
Michigan threw for more yards than 16 of the last 17 games according to Zach Shaw. That's insane! Hopefully we put in Hudson and things can jell the next couple weeks. Everyone is guaranteeing losses against teams like MSU even though I'd bet money ND is the better team.
September 2nd, 2018 at 11:05 AM ^
ND incinerated MSU last year and returned most of that roster, including just about the entire defense. This was a very experienced Notre Dame team.
September 2nd, 2018 at 11:19 AM ^
I think ND is better than MSU and last year's game would agree. But, it's not night and day and we will struggle with MSU. It will be a close game and we probably need to show improvement in some areas to think we'll come out on the winning side.
September 2nd, 2018 at 11:05 AM ^
Was hoping for improvement or at least a change in direction, BUT:
9 months later - SAME product on the field running SAME plays with a slight upgrade in QB.
I expect SAME results.
Really don't think there will be improvement in a month what they couldn't fix in 9 months.
I think the staff believes there is nothing wrong, the players are just not executing.
September 2nd, 2018 at 11:28 AM ^
You're wrong! It's only been EIGHT months, not 9.
September 2nd, 2018 at 11:06 AM ^
My observation? Last time we played them we lost 31-0, this time we lost 24-17. Their qb hit three miraculous bombs he likely won't hit all season. Defense wasn't ready to play in the 1st quarter, but controlled the game after. The offensive line wasn't ready to pass protect all game, however, empty sets need to stop if our pass protection looks like a screen door. I thought Patterson's Michigan career was going to be short, watching last night..