PFF Analysis of Michigan’s Defense
PFF thinks Michigan will have the best defense in the country. They breakdown the major position groups. Not a lot of new info, but worth a watch.
August 9th, 2018 at 10:15 PM ^
I constantly hear about Clemson and their DL but ours is just as good or slightly below them. Our difference is great LBs and 2 All America type CBs. Solid safety play will determine if we are a Top 5 defense or #1.
August 9th, 2018 at 11:26 PM ^
It certainly can't be claimed our DL is as good as theirs headed into this season. After the season maybe.
August 10th, 2018 at 7:19 AM ^
We have Bush as the only proven commodity at lb. We need to see the other guys live with bullets flying. Ido think the lb core will be considerably more athletic this year. If so, LOOK OUT! I do think though this could be one of the best defenses ever.
August 10th, 2018 at 8:12 AM ^
Aren’t you forgetting Hudson? Viper and all that, but he is more or less a linebacker, unless you want to say we only play two. But even then, with all the talent recruited at the position the last couple of years, there is almost no chance we do not have someone good replacing McCray.
August 10th, 2018 at 8:53 AM ^
Uhh Khaleke Hudson? Say what you want about “Viper,” but he’s essentially a linebacker. He’s considered a linebacker by the rest of the country as well
August 10th, 2018 at 9:34 AM ^
PFF literally just graded him as a safety.
August 10th, 2018 at 9:43 PM ^
Fine. He's a safety that plays every down at the line of scrimmage and makes a really good linebacker. This whole line of reasoning is academic at best and disingenuous at worst.
August 9th, 2018 at 10:16 PM ^
So we have two All American caliber starters in each position group. That's insane.
August 9th, 2018 at 10:38 PM ^
Offense needs to average 28 a game and it's 12-0 baby!
August 9th, 2018 at 11:24 PM ^
Without question a national championship caliber defense. If we get simply average OL play we're in the playoffs. It really is that simple. OL play that is Just. Fucking. Average.
August 10th, 2018 at 6:27 AM ^
I'd agree with this except for the schedule. Michigan will face at least five top 25 opponents this year, and probably 6 if Northwestern does what it's capable of doing. That's a whole bunch of crap to overcome--even if Michigan is better. It's a whole bunch of unlucky bounces, a whole bunch of potential injuries, etc. Playoffs are possible, but it's still very unlikely.
August 10th, 2018 at 7:58 AM ^
I don't think it's that simple. Average will suffice if it's a low variance average -- guys that are physically limited but know what they're doing. As said here before, five Eric Magnusons instead of the boom-or-bust play we got from our '16 interior line and we might've had our first NC by now. Magnuson was a physically unremarkable lineman, but in his final season he very consistently got in front of his man, even if just for half a second. My point is, he was nothing close to great but he always gave our plays a puncher's chance. That's what we need. That's all we need. We have guys who can do crazy things in space.
Unfortunately what we have is not that. Let's hope Warriner is the legendary OL whisperer of his reputation, because if they finish the season "average" it'll be from mauling some cupcakes and then getting caved by elite defenses en route to the Outback Bowl.
August 10th, 2018 at 8:16 AM ^
This is an interesting and well-made point. Is there some literature that examines OL protection variance, and offensive production?
I'm wondering if there are ways to mitigate high variance by calling more explosive plays, for example, that also don't accumulate negative yards.
August 10th, 2018 at 10:32 AM ^
UFR, for the most part. Magnuson was "low variance average" in that he'd rack up half points or fight his man to a draw. Kalis could get a +1 or +2 by destroying someone and then get a -2 on the next play by derfing right past an unblocked linebacker or whatnot. The latter is worse in big games because it kills drives, and elite defenses will actively target any weaknesses they find.
August 10th, 2018 at 9:08 AM ^
Yes I had the same thought. The '16 team had an average offensive line and an elite defense. But there are too many variables to simply say "this gets us in." If Speight had a shoulder we probably beat OSU by 3 touchdowns.
August 10th, 2018 at 10:38 AM ^
Speight's shoulder was a casualty of a high-variance average OL. We could steamroll Rutgers and Maryland but we really needed guys not running by their assignments against an inspired Iowa defense. I'd rather we beat Rutgers by 2 TDs and not leave DTs unblocked, and then there'd have been no what-ifs about Speight's health.
Anyway, my point is that our O-line is probably going to wreck some teams, but I'm skeptical that they'll have it all together in time to avoid catastrophic busts. So I project them to average but a high variance average, which means we might need our 3rd string QB again.
August 9th, 2018 at 10:23 PM ^
WIN WITH AGGRESSION! GO BLUE!
August 10th, 2018 at 8:58 AM ^
I think I can safely say that, after some of these speeches, there are a fair number of us that would run through a wall for Coach Brown, even those of us who are getting up there in years.
August 9th, 2018 at 10:24 PM ^
This defense (on paper) is a championship caliber defense. I hope the offense doesn't waste it away.
August 9th, 2018 at 10:41 PM ^
Yep. Just like last season. Defense put us in position to win almost every game (obv not PSU) but the offense was horrid.
August 9th, 2018 at 11:19 PM ^
I know we lost by 4 TD's in that game eventually, but even with our putrid offense last year we were down 14-13 at one point. If we had a decent QB last year that game could have been tight but we all know how bad JOK was.
Decent QB play kept us from going at least 11-1 last year and that would have put us in the B1G CG, our D was good enough but had no chance with that shit QB play we had.
August 9th, 2018 at 11:27 PM ^
O'Korn left a LOT to be desired but last season's failures were on the O Line first and foremost.
August 10th, 2018 at 9:53 AM ^
disagree. the o-line was terrible, but we definitely would’ve won the osu and msu games if o’korn was even half-way competent.
August 10th, 2018 at 12:38 AM ^
JOK was decent against PSU. His only turnover came at the worst time, down 28-13 in the 4th quarter, but he was sacked 7 times and constantly under pressure. He didn't get much help from his running game either.
I hope all the hype around the OL is legit. If we want to beat good teams, our OL has to be a strength.
August 10th, 2018 at 12:39 PM ^
Think it was the UFR posted here after that game that showed just how bad O'Korn was at PSY. Not all sacks were on the OL; he failed to read blitzes and get rid of the ball and he held the ball b/c he didn't see open receivers.
In my opinion, JOK was FAR from decent in that game.
August 9th, 2018 at 10:39 PM ^
We can win the damn title if the offense clicks. This defense is championship caliber.
August 9th, 2018 at 10:45 PM ^
Exactly, doesn't even need to be amazing, just above average and the defense will win us games
August 10th, 2018 at 8:48 AM ^
sure bud, name one time an exceptional defense tied to an average to good offense at Michigan won us a national championship while playing one of the toughest schedules in college.
Good luck finding a Michigan team that fits that description perfectly. Double points if you can find that team within the last 21 years. /s
August 9th, 2018 at 10:54 PM ^
If the offense can sustain drives, while actually putting touchdowns up on the board, then this season could be pre-Iowa 2016 levels of fun.
August 9th, 2018 at 11:07 PM ^
Between this and that coaching article saying UM could be “scary good,” my impatience for football season has officially kicked in! This year could be special!
August 9th, 2018 at 11:18 PM ^
Notre Dame does not score an offensive touchdown on 9/1. Our defense is going to cram it right up their ass. As Bob Ufer would say - "The Irish are not going to make enough ground to bury themselves in".
You heard it here first.
To hell with Notre Dame, their mediocre team, their weak ass fans, and their overrated school.
Go Blue!
August 9th, 2018 at 11:33 PM ^
Heard it wear?
August 10th, 2018 at 3:30 AM ^
As much as I love your avatar name, I disagree on dissing ND. sure, Kelly is an ass .but they are a clean program with decent fans, and VERY similar to our program. Diss theirs is almost dissing ours .
August 10th, 2018 at 12:01 PM ^
Clean program other than the dead students.
August 10th, 2018 at 2:30 PM ^
If ND does not score an offensive TD they better not score any TDS.
August 9th, 2018 at 11:21 PM ^
Front seven is definitely a caliber of the Ohio State's, the Clemson's, the Bama's of the world. Shoring up the safety positions is the main focus for Don Brown as far as I'm concerned
August 9th, 2018 at 11:29 PM ^
The corners match up with the best as well.
August 9th, 2018 at 11:47 PM ^
Why wouldn’t we just have the best cover guys in the defensive backfield regardless of position? With the front 7 we have no one is going to run on us. The only issue has been in coverage on slots, and RB wheel routes. Metellus and Kinnel are great tacklers and run defenders, but do we need that at Safety? Or could CB types like Hughes, Thomas or Sims make more sense?
August 10th, 2018 at 3:20 AM ^
Brad Hawkins is the interesting prospect because he's definitely got the speed to be that ball hawking safety. I also like the idea of Myles Sims playing safety, I'm usually not a huge fan of corners that are over 6'2 they usually have tight hip rotation because they're bigger and have a hard time with the twitchy WR's. If Michigan could land Daxton Hill he's immediately replace Kinnels spot
August 10th, 2018 at 8:23 AM ^
In very limited cases, maybe, but I doubt Brown would make special personnel packages just for those exceptions. As we've learned from DCs before Brown got here, you need to defend modern spread-to-run games 11-on-11. So sure, CBs are involved in run defense but they're usually tasked with keeping races to the sideline inside, when the ball carrier is likely to be the QB or a slot bug. If you've got 190-pound CBs running around everywhere and filling gaps, even an OC like DeBord will pick up on it and run the ball at them. You need guys 20 pounds heavier to reliably stop the run at the second level or you get the "De'veon Smith vs. the fishing village" scenario.
I mean, the modern HSP evolved from that mismatch. Early spread offenses would force defenses into nickel formations with alignment and then run the ball at the backup CB for easy yards. Just because a guy's there on paper, won't mean much if the lead blocker outweighs him by 40 pounds.
August 10th, 2018 at 1:02 PM ^
Great points. Thank you.
August 10th, 2018 at 7:12 AM ^
Quarterbacks had an 11.9 QB rating when targeting David Long. That is absurd.
August 10th, 2018 at 11:11 AM ^
Hill seems to get all the love on national preseason lists, etc besides PFF. That number is absurd indeed.
August 10th, 2018 at 12:18 PM ^
Yeah but the average B1G QB has a rating of 12.2, so. . .
My point is, David Long is totally not ready for the NFL. He needs another two years of seasoning.
August 10th, 2018 at 2:33 PM ^
Yes David long is like 5”6. I don’t think he will be NFL height till after his senior year.