New Michigan crystal ball
WR George Johnson. He is a zero star in the composite but the #966 player in the country on 247.
Balls from Webb and Wiltfong. Announcing tomorrow night.
I guarantee you 95% of this blog has no clue what a blue chip ratio is. But you're damn right as usual.
Once again it's beyond sad that you think this to be some kind of biting insult.
For one, I don't actually think that will happen, but "No team has ever won a national championship with that"...uh, you need to expound on that (and if you can't expound on it because you don't actually know the data and you're just regurgitating something you heard someone else say, then you need to not say it).
Do you mean that no team that has had one single class on their roster where 50% were not 4-stars has won a championship? I doubt that. Do you mean that no team with less than 50% of their scholarship players being 4-stars has won a championship (this is not us, btw, most of our 85-man roster is 4-stars)? Your little "fact" is incredibly damning and also incredibly vague, you need to give some context.
Read this. You're wrong and he's right.
The Blue-chip ratio is the most accurate gauge of "on field" recruiting rankings but it's usually applied to "starting line-up" or sometimes the "2 deep".
I apply it to what I call the "impact two deep" which is staring line-up, back-up QB, next 2 RBs, next 4 receivers, next 3 OL, next 5 DL, next 2 or 3 LBs, next 4 in the secondary.
Even in straight recruiting UofM is plus 6 in the Blue Chip Ratio between '15-'18.
Your ratio is for national titles I take it? Penn State, Wisconsin and MSU have all recently won B1G titles with the bulk of their classes falling below your ratio.
Yes national titles.
MSU got embarrassed in the CFP and lets not talk about how they somehow beat UM and OSU despite leading zero seconds of game time. And that's to say nothing of their struggles against Rutgers, Purdue, Air Force, Iowa, and Nebraska that year.
Wisconsin plays in the JV division and often looks overwhelmed against good competition. Here's what SB nation wrote in their blue chop article:
they were actually very ordinary in that span against blue-chip competition, putting up losing records against five-star (2-3), four-star (3-6) and even three-star (5-6) opponents. Much of Wisconsin's success is based on thorough, consistent dominance of its two-star peers in the Big Ten - Illinois, Indiana, Minnesota, Northwestern, Purdue - against whom the Badgers have won 17 in a row. But they've hardly made a habit of playing over their heads.
PSU was close to the blue chip ratio but was still below it when they won the B1G. Lest we forget we beat their ass by 40 and they needed two blocked kicks to beat OSU despite getting severely outgained in that game. They also went to OT with Minnesota and lost to Pitt. They got pretty lucky and that's not sustainable for annual success. They'll pass the blue chip ratio after this year with the class they have coming in though.
Welcome back your positivity is so cute.
"This recruiting class is going to finish below the "blue chip ratio" i.e. more than 50% of the class is below 4 star recruits."
Lmao way to make up a completely arbitrary ratio that just isn't a thing
Georgia Tech is going to miss out on another QB prospect...
Exactly what I thought about. Poor damn Tech, all their QBs are our skill players.
Im just saying. What has Harbaugh done at Michigan to allow us to trust him on recruiting? The offensive line and qb issues have been a recruiting issue. Are we going to beat osu recruiting like this when we are 0-3 so far? People act like we have 12 Rashan Garys coming into Michigan in the 2019 class when most of these werent sought out by other teams.
The talent gap between UM and OSU is only getting wider unfortunately. Bucknuts radio and the OZone had two podcasts this week basically laughing at UM's recruiting right now. Even they don't understand how it could be this bad.
Of course you listened to both of them, given you're an osu fan.
News flash: Ohio State is better than Michigan, so they're going to get better players.
More at 11.
Newsflash: "OSU has beaten UM 15 of the last 16 times. Until UM starts recruiting in the same vicinity as OSU this is not going to get better. More at 11."
Are you suggesting some sort of 5* recruit human trafficking deal?
The way UofM did it in '69 was to upset a far superior team and raze the buckeye machine to the ground, then we started to get the better talent.
And you blasted me for starting a thread about him. You and dr should never reduce yourselves to his level.
you two are better than that.
i am begging, please stop feeding the zoo animal
Who are the "most" who haven't been sought after by other teams? Other than Velazquez each of the commits have multiple P5 and B1G offers.
Velazquez didnt have any major offers besides Michigan. While it may be a good get for Erik Bakich, am i supposed to trust Urban Meyer, James Franklin etc. who didnt offer or Harbaugh.
Your trust is irrelevant. Why do you think you matter?
I know he doesn't have other major offers that's why I called him out as the one guy. AK said most of the commits aren't being pursued; that's just Velazquez so as far as I can tell he's projecting.
Getting super worked up in June because Wisconsin/Iowa/MSU types are the primary competition for the bottom half of the class just seems wildly unproductive to me.
Thanks George for making this a great week to follow Michigan recruiting, good luck making the squad and stay healthy where ever you go.
check out the big brain on Bluey
“mgoblog analysis of tape is worthless because nobody here is a scout” “This is the worst tape I’ve ever seen!”
”Summer team rankings are worthless! It only matters where you finish!” ”This kid’s current ranking is way too low! What is the staff doing??”
No way he’s a Michigan alum with that kind of brainpower.
I'm no pessimist, but honestly, I'm getting concerned with this class.
I noticed you didn't post one about Eric Gray because that would have been a top-250 recruit and that doesn't work with your doom-and-gloom approach.
BTW, because I too can look at a news feed at 247 and think I know anything, LSU just offered the #957 recruit in the country, and seem reasonably high on him. Literally at random, I see other teams offering guys who are lowly-ranked because they showed up at their camp and they like him. But whatever, you're a sad little person and shitting on HS kids makes you feel important.
Not sure why you keep needing this explained to you but I have no problem with Harbaugh recruiting a few three stars. When it's the majority of your class then you have problems. When it's the majority of your class in back to back years then you are in deep shit.
BTW, LSU also just landed Rivals.com #1 overall player Derek Stingley.
But you literally shit on every recruit, even when it's merely an offer.
Also also, LSU's average star rating right now is 89.22, while Michigan's is 90.14, with LSU having taken 17 players including a Juco (I honestly don't know how they factor in a Juco in their rankings). Virtually every team has a majority of 3* classes because there are just more of those players compared to the rest. And that says nothing about how players move up and down rankings as the season progresses.
So again, I'm waiting for more out of you than "I want Michigan to sign higher-rated players based on rankings right now" which I guess is the only point you want to make and, I will reiterate, I've heard loud and clear.
But hey, you also know which offers are commitable and which aren't across the college spectrum, so maybe you're a genius that nobody has ever previously identified.
Pro bowlers:that were 3 star college recruits:
OL David DeCastro (Pittsburgh)
LB Von Miller (Denver)
TE Travis Kelce (Kansas City)
DT Geno Atkins (Cincinnati)
DE Jurrell Casey (Tennessee)
LB Brian Orakpo (Tennessee)
DB Marcus Peters (Kansas City)
OL Marshal Yanda (Baltimore)
OL Kelechi Osemele (Oakland)
RB Le'Veon Bell (Pittsburgh)
DB Casey Hayward (San Diego)
DB Devin McCourty (New England)
PK Justin Tucker (Baltimore)
QB Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay)
DT Aaron Donald (Los Angeles)
WR Mike Evans (Tampa Bay)
OL Trent Williams (Washington)
OL Brandon Scherff (Washington)
QB Matt Ryan (Atlanta)
QB Dak Prescott (Dallas)
LB Vic Beasley (Atlanta)
LB Ryan Kerrigan (Washington)
LB Luke Kuechly (Carolina)
DB Richard Sherman (Seattle)
OL Travis Frederick (Dallas)
DE Cliff Avril (Seattle)
https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/2017-pro-bowl-rosters-do-recruiting-star-ratings-actually-predict-nfl-success/
Bluey "literally shits" on every recruit?
OK, well now I am concerned.
Niiiice
The finish to last year’s class and this one have been underwhelming. This also happens to be the period when Matt Dudek became UM’s director of recruiting.
I’m thinking Dudek needs to go because Michigan recruiting has tailed off noticeably under his watch.
8-5 seasons don’t do this. Michigan has consistently recruited top ten classes since people started keeping track of recruits despite numerous mediocre seasons.
That said, teams have won conference titles using this approach. MSU being the most famous example. I am not going to freak out regardless because Harbaugh is an excellent coach.
But Dudek has been less than impressive thus far.
Coaches offer Matt Dudek does not. I feel like he is scape goat for Michigan recruiting.
You are right that the dip in recruiting coincided when he arrived but I think this is more on the coaching staff to be honest. Dudek doesn't decide who to recruit, he handles the logistics of visits and helps host recruits and families on visits. Bigger issue is the offensive staff has a bunch of bad and lazy recruiters.
So how does that explain the ‘17 class? That offensive class was pretty good.
Dudek's job is to set up visits and take care of logistics. Recruits over and over talk about how much they like him. These are not the droids you're looking for.
Last January we didnt really have anyone regardless if they were a 3 star or whatever visiting down the stretch. Brian noted in a podcast that it was like a late Rodriguez class. Dudek is the one that sets up those visits.
I don't understand how the guy who sets up the logistics of visits has anything to do with recruiting. Unless recruits are angry they keep getting put on the middle seat of a row on Jet Blue, this seems like a reach.
Bronx it’s not even a reach it’s totally an irrelevant issue. People who blame Dudek have no idea what his actual job entails. Plus I bet anything the same people who blame Dudek fawn over the coaching staff. They have no understanding what actual recruiting is all about and who actually does the recruiting including the right to offer a player.
If you guys think Dudek is slaving over high school recruits game tape to find players to recruit you have been strongly mislead
Guy has a Florida State offer. But yeah, this guy is garbage cause he's a 3* and BLuey said so...
Surprised no one wanted to comment on the rivals camp film that I linked where he wins zero reps, can't beat a press, and can't get separation. Weird.
Lol, way to pull highlights from 2017, aka when that kid was 16 years old at best.
Professional scout and former player Barton Simmons disagrees with you and thinks All is good. Why do you think you're an exception to your own "mgoblog poster film analysis isn't credible" rule?
I like this Johnson guy and I hope we get him.
He makes some nice cuts and looks plenty fast enough -- wouldn't mind seeing him tried at RB too. Creates separation from defenders when breaking into the open and lowers the shoulder when he needs to. (Bluey I'll save ya the trouble: It could just be that the slow-footed competition down in FL is making him look good though, so maybe we should focus more on that non-elite 4.55 track time that he posted, giving him zero, that's right, zero, elite traits.)
I think some of these dual-threat QBs are under-rated and under-recruited. What would his recruiting profile look like if the focused on WR or RB instead? With the stats to go along with it? Quite a bit higher I'd expect. Factor in the leadership and high football IQ, and I'd take some guys like him and Michael Barrett every time.