MBB - Predicting the B1G
After having a discussion with a MSU friend about one plays in the B1G and how that could affect this year's standings, I decided to look at it more closely and try to predict the B1G standings taking the one plays into account.
The first assumption I made was that the league could be broken down into 5 tiers based on what I've seen so far this year.
Tier 1 - MSU, Wisconsin, OSU
Tier 2 - Michigan, Iowa
Tier 3 - Indiana, Illinois, Purdue, Minnesota
Tier 4 - Penn State, Nebraska
Tier 5 - Northwestern
The second assumption was that the home team would win every game against a team that was one tier above them and down. So, for example, Indiana should be able to beat Michigan at home, but not MSU.
Going through the entire schedule, this model would predict the following final standings.
| Wisconsin | 16 | 2 |
| Ohio State | 15 | 3 |
| Michigan State | 14 | 4 |
| Iowa | 11 | 7 |
| Michigan | 10 | 8 |
| Minnesota | 8 | 10 |
| Illinois | 7 | 11 |
| Indiana | 7 | 11 |
| Purdue | 7 | 11 |
| Nebraska | 6 | 12 |
| Penn State | 5 | 13 |
| Northwestern | 2 | 14 |
A week into the season, there has only been one result that breaks the assumptions. Michigan in tier 2 won at tier 3 Minnesota, bumping Michigan's projected record up to 11-7 and dropping Minnesota to 7-11.
Wisconsin catches quite a break by not playing at OSU or MSU. I wll keep track of this throughout the season and post again if anything interesting happens.
January 6th, 2014 at 3:59 PM ^
We would have to go 9-9 in the BIG to end up there. I think we are better than that; barring any other significant injuries.
January 6th, 2014 at 9:58 PM ^
January 6th, 2014 at 3:59 PM ^
January 6th, 2014 at 4:12 PM ^
I guess a lot of it would depend on who we beat. If we lost all five of our games against the top three (Wisky, Sparty, Ohio), we would need more total conference wins. If we can find a way to get a couple of those marquee games and stay close to holding serve, we might have a shot with 9 or 10 conference wins.
I want Mitch back.
January 6th, 2014 at 3:52 PM ^
I think Michigan is just going to keep getting better as the year goes on based on the youth.
January 6th, 2014 at 3:56 PM ^
They may not have a lot of athletes, but they have pretty good size and all of their guys are skilled. They all can dribble, drive and pass; even their bigs. They will be a tough team to beat in Iowa City for all BIG teams.
January 6th, 2014 at 4:38 PM ^
January 6th, 2014 at 5:06 PM ^
Iowa's three losses are to teams that are a combined 41-1, and they lost by 4, by 3, and by 5 in OT, after leading by 7 or more at the half of all three games. That they keep losing those close games probably isn't just luck--they lost a lot of close games last year too--but there's every reason to believe they're very good.
January 6th, 2014 at 3:57 PM ^
January 6th, 2014 at 4:08 PM ^
January 6th, 2014 at 4:09 PM ^
I think I know the answer but is it 100% sure that Drake Harris won't play two sports? If so, why not?
I know someone will fry me for asking this rather than searching for it but things change.
January 6th, 2014 at 4:16 PM ^
I don't know his specific reason, but the more general reason is that it's really hard to do that. The seasons overlap too much and neither coach will want to see him get hurt in the other sport.
January 6th, 2014 at 4:41 PM ^
freshman are not allowed to play another sport under the Hoke regime. Possibly cost us a shot at Adoree Jackson in recruiting. They also are not allowed to major in engineering like D. Hand wanted to.
January 6th, 2014 at 4:54 PM ^
January 6th, 2014 at 9:25 PM ^
To devote the time and effort necessary to be in ideal shape for each sport would be extremely difficult. Not to mention the seasons (briefly) overlapping AND playin' skool too....
January 7th, 2014 at 1:24 AM ^
It's more than a brief overlap. The basketball team starts practicing in mid-October, but if you're on the football team you don't join them until January, assuming the team went to a bowl. That's a huge amount of practice time you lose. It makes it really hard to be a good basketball player. Almost all two-sport guys eventually give basketball up and focus on football by the time they're upperclassmen. This was true of Tai Streets and also Kelvin Grady.
January 6th, 2014 at 4:19 PM ^
January 6th, 2014 at 4:30 PM ^
This is a nice post, op.
If was asking my gut to find a likely error I think it is at the top. I doubt any team will have fewer than 4 losses, although I'll admit that Wisconsin's schedule gives them a decent shot at hitting your lofty prediction. If I then try to reference my gut feeling to your methodology I would say that I think the error will come from the assumption that all tiers are equi-distant apart. The reality is that I think the drop off from Tier 3 to Tier 4 is more substanial than the other tiers. And I would expect Tier 3 teams to cause some problems for Tier 1 teams, especially at home.
January 6th, 2014 at 4:33 PM ^
Please comeback Mitch!!!
January 6th, 2014 at 4:33 PM ^
I might put Illinois up one and would defintely put Purdue down one tier. I don't see Michigan losing at Purdue.
January 6th, 2014 at 4:40 PM ^
I think you and the post above have good points. I wasn't totally comfortable with Tier 3. I don't think those teams are all the same, and I think the drop off from Tier 1-3 is bigger than from 3-5. Maybe I'll revisit it in a week or two when we see a little more action.
January 6th, 2014 at 4:42 PM ^
It's really too bad Adreian Payne stuck around, I think MSU would be a lot more beatable. This is probably going to get me negged, because apparently it's not OK to dislike State around here anymore, but it's my honest opinion: if Burke's three doesn't drop against Kansas last March, Payne for sure and probably Gary Harris are in the NBA right now. But nope, Michigan went significantly deeper into the tourney than they, for the first time in seemingly ages, so everyone had to come back and make sure we "correct" that.
January 6th, 2014 at 4:59 PM ^
...to suggest that anyone at MSU actually cares about academics, but Payne's decision to return really was because he wanted to finish the degree. If you know anything about his history you'll understand why it might matter more to him, and the people close to him, than it does to most.
January 6th, 2014 at 5:06 PM ^
Good for him and State whatever the reason. Now he gets to be drafted in a class with 3x the talent and lose millions.
January 6th, 2014 at 6:01 PM ^
January 6th, 2014 at 9:30 PM ^
he might be...you never know, lol......or he may have just seen the epsiode of The Journey last season which had a segment on Adriene Payne regarding this subject. I don't remember all the details but Payne's grandma, who raised him, passed away a few years ago. Before passing AP promised her he'd graduate.
It's true that he could still have gone and come back to graduate (or finish his degree elsewhere). But i suppose there's also the possibility that the longer you are out of school the more difficult it is to find your way back into the classroom. Also, the next time he returns, it won't be free ( like it is now). True, he may have a decent pro career and make a lot of money (and thus be able to easily pay to take classes), but that's never certain.
January 6th, 2014 at 5:21 PM ^
I'm not as worried about MSU; they've been fine this year but I've not been particularly scared of them. Wiscy is going to drive me crazy, though, because all of the changes made to defensive hands apparently don't apply to them. And Aaron Craft.
January 6th, 2014 at 5:55 PM ^
I saw a lot of the same sentiment here towards Aaron Craft before the season started, as well. Mostly that the new rules would affect him more than most players because apparently he hand checks. Yet, he is averaging 2.2 fouls/game - the same as last year, and he is yet to foul out of a game. Why? Because he is fundamentally sound, he has unbelievable lateral speed and he plays with his hands out wide - not in on his body which leads to hand checking fouls. Either that or the NCAA told the refs that the new rules don't apply to AC.
January 6th, 2014 at 5:46 PM ^
It's gonna be rough if the Big Ten ends up with all those 7-11 teams and trying to squeeze some of them in, even if we're still perceived as the best conference. I imagine Minnesota could slide in at 8-10, but those next three are iffy
January 6th, 2014 at 8:04 PM ^
January 6th, 2014 at 6:18 PM ^
I appreciate the work. It will be interesting to see how it plays out.
January 6th, 2014 at 8:14 PM ^
January 6th, 2014 at 9:04 PM ^
Yeah, unfortunately without McGary we are probably an 11-7 type conference team and a bubble-to-solidly-in tournament team.
Here's how I see it shaking out:
- @Neb - W
- PSU - W
- @Wisc - L
- Iowa - W
- @MSU - L
- Purdue - W
- @Indiana - L
- Neb - W
- @Iowa - L
- @OSU - L
- Wisc - L
- MSU - L
- @Purdue - W
- Minnesota - W
- @Illinois - W
- Indiana - W
January 6th, 2014 at 10:30 PM ^
Hey if you guys like this thread, this is pretty much my write-up from the day before:
http://annarborsports.wordpress.com/2014/01/05/complete-big-ten-confere…
We have different ideas how the teams are tiered but similar ideas on the importance of home-court and the one-off games. Maybe I'll post a few articles to here later in the year so no one beats me to the punch.
January 6th, 2014 at 10:43 PM ^