Preseason Blogpoll Ballot
MGoBlog Ballot - Week 1
Tim's departure and SBN's takeover of the poll's maintenance means I can re-join the voting public without putting myself in the strange position of criticizing my own ballot.
So here it is. I won't go through the relatively chalk portions of the ballot but will explain large deviations between it and the AP poll:
STANFORD #1
Stanford was an ass-kicking machine last year that returns the best quarterback in the country, two potential first round picks on the offensive line, another at tight end, and most of the starters from a top 20 defense. Even if their talent level isn't quite up to par with the usual profile of a national championship contender, having Luck more than makes up for that. Most of the top ten have questions at the most important spot on the field.
LSU SKEPTICISM
I'm voting after their starting quarterback may or may not have kicked a marine in the head but probably might have did. Even if he didn't, Jordan Jefferson is terrible and always has been and LSU skated by last year on insane occurrences en route to the #86 yardage offense.
This is when it all caves in for the Mad Hatter.
I HATE BOISE STATE
Potatoes are overrated and I loathe putting teams that no one will know anything about so high up.
THE HOLGORSEN EFFECT
Blame Smart Football and EDSBS for my belief that Skulletor is the real deal and can install his system lickety-split at West Virginia. Thus I'm higher on WVU than the AP and slightly down on Oklahoma State.
WISCONSIN AND NEBRASKA AT THE EDGE OF THE TOP FIVE
The Big Ten's best teams benefit from the above three items and pass Texas A&M based on my belief that LSU wasn't really that good last year. LSU had a shiny record, though, and A&M beat them up, and therefore A&M is this year's designated Team Everyone Overrates Because Of A Bowl Game. Ole Miss says hi.
I AM SECRETLY DOUG GILLETT
I do have Georgia extremely high. Aaron Murray was secretly great last year; Isaiah Crowell can be an instant impact RB, and the defense returns seven starters as it enters year two under a new coordinator. Bounce coming.
ILLINOIS?
Nathan Scheelhaase exploded towards the end of last year, going from a no-pass all-run guy to Denard Robinson junior. I think they'll get into that 8-4 range that teams at the end of the poll tend to.
TELL ME THAT I'M INSANE
They've moved the deadlines to Monday this year but if you tell me the insane things here I'll change them if I'm convinced.
UPDATE: People have told me I'm insane. Scheelhaase did not finish last year blazing except against terrible defenses and they've lost big chunks of their talent, so they're out. Not having South Carolina was an oversight, so they draw in. I've moved ND down a little and WVU up, as well.
Final result:
MGoBlog Ballot - Week 1
| Rank | Team | Delta |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stanford Cardinal | -- |
| 2 | Oklahoma Sooners | -- |
| 3 | Alabama Crimson Tide | -- |
| 4 | Oregon Ducks | -- |
| 5 | Florida St. Seminoles | -- |
| 6 | Wisconsin Badgers | -- |
| 7 | Nebraska Cornhuskers | -- |
| 8 | Georgia Bulldogs | -- |
| 9 | Boise St. Broncos | -- |
| 10 | Oklahoma St. Cowboys | -- |
| 11 | LSU Tigers | -- |
| 12 | Texas A&M Aggies | -- |
| 13 | Virginia Tech Hokies | -- |
| 14 | West Virginia Mountaineers | -- |
| 15 | TCU Horned Frogs | -- |
| 16 | Ohio St. Buckeyes | -- |
| 17 | South Carolina Gamecocks | -- |
| 18 | Notre Dame Fighting Irish | -- |
| 19 | Michigan St. Spartans | -- |
| 20 | Florida Gators | -- |
| 21 | USC Trojans | -- |
| 22 | Texas Longhorns | -- |
| 23 | Arkansas Razorbacks | -- |
| 24 | Mississippi St. Bulldogs | -- |
| 25 | San Diego St. Aztecs | -- |
SB Nation BlogPoll College Football Top 25 Rankings »
As always, this will be in flames by week three.
August 28th, 2011 at 6:56 PM ^
but I disagree with people who think our defense can't be historically bad again simply because we replaced GERG with Mattison. I think we're going to have an awful defense again. Coaching was a problem, but it wasn't all coaching. We played a lot of guys who were either young or just not all that good. We're still going to be playing a lot of guys who are either young or just not all that good.
And I think it's a mistake to ignore the injury to Crist. Notre Dame drove down the field on the first series without breaking a sweat. After Crist went out, they couldn't move the ball for a half and threw 3 picks. Given how every other team we played last year moved the ball against us, I think it's entirely reasonable to think ND would have done the same had Crist stayed healthy.
August 28th, 2011 at 7:11 PM ^
I agree that our defense could be bad again. Coaching was certainly not the only problem the past 3 seasons.
But coaching is also not the only thing that has improved since last year. We played a lot of young guys last season, but we have a ton more experience on the field this season.
Martin, RVB, Roh, Demens, Cam Gordon, Woolfolk, Avery, JT Floyd, Kovacs...all these guys have played a lot of football in a Michigan uniform (some more than others obviously).
So the inexperience card won't play this season IMO.
As to your other argument, that we just aren't very good, well that remains to be seen I guess. Sure, we were terrible last season but we played a lot of games without some of the guys listed above. Woolfolk, Floyd, and Demens all missed (or didn't play) a significant amount of time last season.
And finally, I am certainly not ignoring the injury to Crist, but how many points to we wanna say having him was worth last season? Sure he started off on fire but there is no guarantee he would have continued to do so. This is the same QB who looked awful at times last season.
So I ask again, how many point was he worth? We won by 4, but if our defense was even halfway decent (which I think it will be this year) we don't give up the 95 yard TD and win by 10+. So was Crist worth 10? 14? 20? 6?
To me this is a guessing game that doesn't really help with anything.
August 28th, 2011 at 8:54 PM ^
I heard that our starting QB stayed healthy the entire year and never sat out any time.
Just because we had a better backup doesn't mean we still can't hold ND accountable for when their starting QB gets injured for a half.
August 29th, 2011 at 12:38 AM ^
Last year, we had Woolfolk out for the season and had not yet had the sense to play Demens when we played ND. This year, everyone who will be playing has experience and, unlike you, I think we have a lot of pretty good Big Ten level players on defense: Roh, RVB, Martin, Demens, Kovacs, Wookfolk and Avery, to quickly name 7. The others still have a little to prove, but the fact that Brink beat out 2 others, that the coaches seem very high on the other 2 LBs and the other S make me feel pretty good about our players. In addition, I am very high on our coaches, something that was simply not the case last year. I doubt we will be looking at our defense and wondering what the hell the LB is doing lining up in that position, just to relive something that came up in every UFR last year. Half the time, the coach lined up our defense in places where HE made it impossible for them to make a play.
August 29th, 2011 at 2:26 AM ^
A walkon you've never heard of before taking the starting job from scholarship players who've been here longer than he has fills you with confidence?
August 28th, 2011 at 6:03 PM ^
I know they've lost a lot, but it's still extreme in that it's only happened once before. Surely SDSU minus their HC and OC is no more likely to jump into the top 25 than Auburn is to fall out of it.
As supporting data, here are the BCS champs and their final rankings in subsequent years (all data pulled from Wikipedia, thus the inconsistency in format for Oklahoma):
1998 Tennessee (1999 rank: 9 Coaches, 9 AP)
1999 FSU (2000 rank: 3 Coaches, 3 AP)
2000 Oklahoma (2001 rank: 11 BCS)
2001 Miami (YTM) (2002 rank: 2 Coaches, 2 AP)
2002 OSU (2003 rank: 4 Coaches, 4 AP)
2003 LSU (2004 rank: 16 Coaches, 16 AP)
2004 USC (2005 rank: 2 Coaches, 2 AP)
2005 Texas (2006 rank: 13 Coaches, 13 AP)
2006 Florida (2007 rank: 16 Coaches, 13 AP)
2007 LSU (2008 rank: unranked)
2008 Florida (2009 rank: 3 Coaches, 3 AP)
2009 Alabama (2010 rank: 11 Coaches, 10 AP)
August 28th, 2011 at 6:45 PM ^
also have this as their returning starters:
Offense:3 (none of the 3 are a QB)
Defense: 3
August 28th, 2011 at 7:05 PM ^
i don't know.
August 28th, 2011 at 7:09 PM ^
Auburn was 7-0 in close games last season (games decided by a TD or less). That kind of luck is almost unprecedented. Even if they had every single player back from last year's squad, I doubt they would replicate that feat in 2011.
Finally, Auburn's schedule in 2010 was favorable, not so much in 2011 as they play the following: @Clemson (won in OT at home last year), @S. Carolina, @Arkansas, @LSU, @Georgia and Alabama. Auburn will likely be the underdog in all of those games. They also play Miss St. (won by 3) as well as Florida in Auburn and I would not be surprised to see them lose one (or both) of those games.
Auburn's best case scenario for 2011 is probably 7-5. If they win more than that, Chizik (Mahlzahn actually, as he is the real brains behind Auburn right now) should be given about a $2 M raise.
August 28th, 2011 at 6:11 PM ^
I'm still not understanding the hype about Notre Dame other than they get it because they're Notre Dame.
Yes, they return a ton of starters. And they closed last year with 4 straight victories (over Army, a 6 loss Miami team that didn't show up for their bowl, Utah who had no noteworthy wins all season and a down USC team in a driving rainstorm that the Trojans almost pulled off.)
I would put them in 20 - 25 range which is actually pretty generous, I think. But certainly not 14.
August 28th, 2011 at 7:46 PM ^
ND is ranked right where we would have been had M2008=ND2010. Kelly is a coach with a great reputation for getting more with less and now he's sitting on a roster of four and five star recruits. He was dominant at every other stop he's been at and gave reasons for people to believe ND was getting better as the year went on.
August 28th, 2011 at 6:18 PM ^
Brian really swung and missed on a few teams.
-SDSU is not going to be ranked. They lost their head coach, OC, and top 2 recievers (to injury). They also add Boise State to their conference.
-Stanford is not the #1 team in the country because they lost the most important part of their team. Jim Harbaugh. He was the BEST coach in college football, by a wider margin than most would assume.
-I don't know if it is just me but Georgia is very overrated. They were a 6-6 SEC team that lost their best offensive and defensive player. They are also in a defensive scheme that doesn't fit their personnel.
-Finally the Illini. They lost Luiget and Martez Wilson to the draft as well as the best runningback in the Big Ten in Mikel LeShoure. They still have Ron Zook as their coach and Scheelhasse is still relatively inexperienced. They lost too much to improve that much.
August 28th, 2011 at 6:24 PM ^
I'll agree with you on all your points except Georgia. Murray is the real deal at QB, and take a look at their schedule:
http://www.georgiadogs.com/sports/m-footbl/sched/m-footbl-sched-2011.html
Every single tough game is at home. If they beat Boise St., I would not be surprised to see them run the table.
August 28th, 2011 at 6:55 PM ^
"... the BEST coach in college football, by a wider margin than most would assume" as if you're somehow in on some secret information that the rest of us don't have. You got Biff's sports almanac from the future?
August 28th, 2011 at 8:10 PM ^
Some people might say Nick Saban.
August 28th, 2011 at 7:42 PM ^
I was going to say the same thing about Illinois. If they can't find a real running threat, Scheelhasse is going to take a step back this year in addition to the defense taking a huge, huge step back.
August 28th, 2011 at 6:18 PM ^
can't see them as a legit #1 at this point. Maybe 4th or 5th at best. Alabama, Oklahoma, or Oregon are probably the wisest choices for the top of the ballot. Then again, I will say this is probably the most wide open I've seen college football at the start of the season in many years. Every team has some sort of weakness.
August 28th, 2011 at 6:29 PM ^
August 28th, 2011 at 6:38 PM ^
Ohio. Sparty and Illinois are all ranked too high. Sparty is a 4-5 loss team that overachieved with a soft schedule last year. Weak OL will get to them. Ohio will implode under the turmoil and trying to find a decent QB out of that mix. They are a 4 loss team as well. Illinois still has Zook and too many questions on defense. Where are the Hawkeyes?
by ranking SDSU higher than us...is Brian conceeding that game? I doubt that one very much... we will roll in that game at home
August 28th, 2011 at 6:59 PM ^
I agree with a lot of what you are saying. When I look at rankings I try to decide if a team is ranked too high/low based on if they could beat the teams ranked around them in the rankings.
If rankings are based on how good a team is, rather than their predicted final record, that is how teams whould be ranked.
With that in mind, I think Brian did a nice job on his top 7 teams. Below that there are some problems.
Georgia, ND, Illinois, and SDSU are teams that stick out to me as not belonging where they are at because they could not beat the teams ranked around them.
August 28th, 2011 at 10:12 PM ^
I will never make another comment ever again if we "roll" SDSU. They are legit. Not Top 15 legit, but definitely top 25. That is going to be a helluva tough game. Reminds me very much of when Utah came into town in '08 (though clearly UM is better now than the '08 team--it is also true that SDSU is better than that Utah team was.) Where I live they replay SDSU's games from the last two years over and over and over on tv. Really...it'll be a fight.
August 28th, 2011 at 11:09 PM ^
Consider me doubtful that this year's SDSU team is better than the 08 Utah squad that went 13-0 and rolled Alabama in the Sugar Bowl.
August 29th, 2011 at 12:48 AM ^
and that 13-0 Utah team just barely beat us. My guess is that we will have to learn to live without Spishak's insight after we roll SDSU.
August 29th, 2011 at 8:46 PM ^
I'll just say this, Jack: Let's revisit our two statements next month. I did my undergrad at Utah; I was there during Urban Meyer's time and I was at the '08 Utah-UM game at the Big House. Don't shoot the messenger; the UM-SDSU game will be a close game. Again, if I'm wrong then you indeed will have to learn to live without my sage insight. I'll put my money where my mouth is. It is a win-win for me because I would LOVE to be wrong. If UM "rolls" SDSU I'll be a happy man. But when that doesn't happen, you are going to be exposed as the uninformed homer fan that you are.
August 28th, 2011 at 6:54 PM ^
MICHIGAN: #1
Everyone Else: Who cares.
August 28th, 2011 at 6:56 PM ^
South Carolina should be a top 10 team, or at least top 15. UGA and Illianois are too high, Arkansas too low.
August 28th, 2011 at 7:13 PM ^
Flip Oregon and Stanford. Move Georgia out of the Top 10. OSU and MSU are too high. Take SDSU off the ballot. South Carolina should be somewhere around 15-18.
August 28th, 2011 at 7:18 PM ^
The nice thing about a Stanford-Oregon comparison is that we'll be able to settle it on the field.
Oregon has always had a good offense. What made them the second best team in the nation last season was their oportunistic and TO causing defense.
Without most of their front 7 and Cliff Harris on the bench for at least one (really big) game, they could have some problems.
As Brian stated, Stanford returns a prolific offense as well and a defense that didn't lose much. Ok they lost Harbaugh, but I'd rather lose a coach then lose a bunch of good players.
August 28th, 2011 at 7:22 PM ^
I'm just not a big fan of coaching change years, regardless of the starters returning to the team. #1 is too optimistic, even with Luck.
August 28th, 2011 at 7:14 PM ^
On what, precisely, are you basing your Illinois ranking? Where is this development you see?
Illinois ended the regular season with losses to Michigan, Fresno State (!), and Minnesota (LOLWUT?), and a win over a Persa-less Northwestern. Over those four games, Scheelhaase was 35 of 75 for a shimmering 46.7% completion rate. He averaged 4.4 ypc over that span.
Not only that, but they lost Corey Liuget, Mikel Leshoure, and Martez Wilson. They return only 12 of 22 starters. And they were 7-6 overall last year.
Methinks you're putting a little too much stock in the bowl game against an overrated Baylor team.
August 28th, 2011 at 7:22 PM ^
Brian, I think this guy makes some good points about Illinois.
Maybe this is enough to move them down?
August 28th, 2011 at 7:19 PM ^
Mississippi state in the top 25 over South Carolina? Take a look at the Gamecocks two deep and you will see just one So and RS FR on the O side of the ball and just one So on the D side of the ball as the rest are all upperclassmen with 2 years or more starting experience. Gamecocks should be #20 and push Gators down and Aztecs or Illini out of your poll. Also you have the Hokies too low as they should swap places with the Seminoles.. Illini have no business in the top 20 but if you want to put them at 25 and knock out the Aztecs I could go along.
August 28th, 2011 at 7:21 PM ^
Texas is a strength of schedule case. With perhaps a single loss at most, and depending on how the other teams ranked perform, Texas should be well within the top 10 and playing on NYD.
August 28th, 2011 at 7:28 PM ^
This brings up a fundamental debate about polls.
Are teams ranked based on how good you think they are?
Or are they ranked based on where they will finish?
The second one factors in SOS, which is why I don't like using that method.
Pre-season polls should be done based solely on team quality, not the fact that they will go 11-1 because they play in the WAC.
August 28th, 2011 at 7:27 PM ^
Stanford definitely deserves a top 5 spot but either the Sooners or Crimson Tide should be #1 (that's my title game prediction, in fact). FWIW, I don't think SDSU should be ranked but that is a game we could lose if we're not ready to play it. Lindley and Hillman can play.
August 28th, 2011 at 7:39 PM ^
Top 10 poll before the third week of October in my book.
I would put BSU at 13-14, drop Ok State down one and bring Virginia Tech into the Top 10. They will be the class of the ACC and they have a great QB and one of the toip backs on the conference.
ND is overrated until they beat someone of some significance and I still think MSU is overrated.
OSU(YTOSU) will barely win 8 games.
August 28th, 2011 at 9:40 PM ^
OSU(YTOSU) will barely win 8 games.
Sadly, I think they will win 10 games, again. 9-3 worst case scenario, IMO.
August 28th, 2011 at 7:40 PM ^
Hey Brian, LSU laid the smackdown in the Cotton Bowl on Texas A&M, not the other way around. That's one of the reasons I find all the Aggie preseason hype to be a little overblown. Also, I believe that game was pretty much the only one all year where Jordan Jefferson played moderately well throughout.
August 28th, 2011 at 8:05 PM ^
Stanford has too few guys coming back to be #1 and why does the Cardinal get a pass on a new coach? Illinois' defense is not going to be good. Offense needs another playmaker. 8-4, perhaps. Illinois will lose to PSU, OSU and Wisconsin. Northwestern, Arizona State and Michigan are toss ups.
August 28th, 2011 at 8:36 PM ^
Choose yours. I choose mine. She chooses his ;>) Math can be applied to support any. It's all frenzy and self-help at the end of each season. There seldom is a team so dominant that it will achieve unity given all variables. Expectations and interpretations are pop psychology and nothing can overcome that science.
August 29th, 2011 at 8:28 AM ^
the best comment I've ever read on MGoBlog. Thank you, sir.
August 28th, 2011 at 9:16 PM ^
I think a lot of Illinois' success last year was early, and it was due in large part teams not being used to what they were doing with 2 new coordinators. That, as well as some serious NFL level talent with Wilson, Liuget and Leshore. Early on, offenses (Mizzou, OSU, PSU, MSU) had a lot more trouble with them then late in the year (Michigan, Minny, Fresno).
Brian has them as the 5th best team in the Big Ten, which would be the VERY high end of expectations. Worse case, they're the 9th best team.
August 28th, 2011 at 9:17 PM ^
Poll largely looks good, save for a couple of points that I'd take issue with (and yes, these are mostly opinion-based).
- Stanford at #1 is crazy, but only on a neutral-field type argument with some of the other teams. Looking at their schedule, they should be heavy favorites against everyone until they go to USC at the end of October, so there is a very real possibility that they'll be 7-0 going into that game. But against elite teams like Oregon, OU, and the top tiers of the B1G and SEC, they just don't match up. And saying that Luck is so good that he'll overcome these deficiencies was the same drum Volunteer fans beated on while Peyton was there, and those teams had at least as much talent at the Farm did. An NFL QB beats the good teams, but the great ones require more talent than Stanford trots out.
- MSU in the top-20 seems high to me, and not just because of my undying hatred for the Spartans. This was a team that scored a bunch of points last year but also gave up a good number against good teams, and needed some last-minute magic against teams like ND, NW, Purdue, and PSU to pull off those wins. Now they have big question marks on that line and, while sporting a good defense, are not going to be dominating teams the way some people think. They smell like a weaker version of LSU or Iowa from a couple years ago - win a bunch of close games with timely turnovers and non-reproducable scoring drives/breaks. They'll probably get to 8 wins, but I don't see them being better than Miss. St. or a couple of other non-ranked teams like Clemson.
- OSU will probably win more games than people think, especially if Braxton Miller can just be competent. This season will be an extreme homage to Tressellball, but it should work out for OSU. They catch a break with Miami being an even bigger mess than them, and getting MSU at home should negate some of the momentum the Spartans would otherwise have with a weakened Buckeyes team. They'll probably lose to Nebraska and Wiscy, but by the time they get to The Game they will have a clear identity and will be a bear (I still think UM wins).
August 28th, 2011 at 9:34 PM ^
You're insane, Brian. Nuts.
August 28th, 2011 at 9:36 PM ^
Zook?
That team will be worse than Michigan.
August 28th, 2011 at 10:33 PM ^
I don't care if you hate Boise State and I hate Boise State and we all hate Boise State; they still play in a shit conference and Kellen Moore is even more experienced going into his final year. Don't let your bias blind you (and screw up your predictions)--Boise will probably end the year in the top 5 again and there's not a damn thing anybody can do about it.
Disclaimer: I know they start their season off against Georgia, but if they get past that they only have two other semi-challenging games the rest of the season (TCU/SDSU). Even if they lose to Uga, it won't hurt them that badly given that (a) its the first game of the year (better to lose early then late, as we've seen over and over again), and (b) its on the road.
August 29th, 2011 at 9:56 AM ^
If Boise loses to Georgia, their BCS chances are done, unless it's an incredibly fluky loss. Everyone will play the weak competition card. They'll top out at around 10 in that case if they run the table.
August 28th, 2011 at 10:08 PM ^
that high school game between Colerain, OH and Cocoa, FL today on ESPN? I kept hearing a kids name being called over and over again and that young man was none other than our commit Joe Bolden LB. Trust me, Joe has the skills to tear up some people. I like to see guys like Bolden coming to Ann Arbor:)
August 28th, 2011 at 10:12 PM ^
A&M was up on LSU in the game until they lost their MLB...opening up the floodgates.
A&M returns most of their team this year and should definitely be a top-10 team.
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