He has my father's profile and if my father had been lucky enough to have gotten into U of M, I would have advised him to go for Ross or Econ. And if he floundered, so be it. The exposure to that world is the key. My father went from shoe shine boy to Wall Street exec. It was never easy and talk of "passion" for a job always struck him as funny. His "passion" was that his parents had third grade educations and he was going to be damned if he was going to stay poor. And the beautiful thing is that this "passion" drove him every day of his working life and gave him tremendous fulfillment when he finally did obtain goals he had barely dreamed of. Even just owning a nice car or having a golf club membership. He appreciated all of it, moreso than his peers who may have had more comfortable beginnings and connections.
I feel like maybe the internet and social media has made people impatient. It's been sixteen days. It's still January. Yes, yes, we all want to know everything immediately, and we can point to *reasons* why this is killing our chances of winning in Columbus next November, but I think "if he's going to do this every year, I wish I was never born!" is probably too much.
It's Dono. Seth was focused on the last post he put up for a player returning. Between the two #9s, Seth would have said: "This is bigger than the *other* one." You wouldn't say "last" in that either/or context.
The books have taken a position on Michigan. They are in the business of not losing big on any single game. If they moved toward Bama just to draw equal betting on both sides, the sharps would immediately pounce with *big* bets and the book would risk losing a ton. The public (dumb) money doesn't influence the line. Anticipating where the sharps are influences the line.
Yes, I think you are correct that success on an early 2 pointer would boost confidence and thus boost performance for the second TD. But the problem is your success on the early 2 pointer is too unlikely. It is a 40% likelihood on average and less if you are the 2023 Penn State offense against Michigan's defense. So you are risking too much to get that boost and the odds just aren't in your favor. Making it an inferior strategy to taking the XP, kicking deep, getting the stop, etc.
I would be open to the argument that "momentum" is overrated and even the product of confirmation bias. However, I'm far more skeptical of the suggestion that humans perform exactly as well with confidence as without. That certainly runs counter to my life experience. And if humans perform better with confidence, then you need to consider that in your game plan. And doing the easy thing first is a sure way to boost confidence. In fact, sports psychologists often begin with the premise of breaking challenges up into more manageable pieces and beginning each day with nonnegotiable but easily accomplishable habits. All because success boosts confidence and confidence boosts performance.
The go for 2 early strategy runs counter to this, and I think you run counter to human nature at your peril.
If momentum doesn't matter then you go for two right away. If momentum matters, then you kick the extra point, kickoff deep, get a stop on defense, drive for another score, and attempt a 2pc, same thing you could have done earlier when you lacked momentum, except now you are doing it with momentum, and with the whole stadium behind you.
If we are talking about humans, we need to consider what makes them perform best and less-well.
If we are talking about robots, then, def, go for two early.
The statistics don't lie but sometimes they also don't tell the truth people think they tell.
The 20-30% chance offends my gut sense that we are really good this year and likely to win each of these games.
In fact, my gut is that we have a 63% chance of beating Penn State in Happy Valley, an 80% chance of beating Maryland at Maryland and then a 55% chance of beating an undefeated top-ranked Ohio State team at home.
Which, if you multiply those odds together...results in a 27% likelihood of winning them all.
But before we feel too concerned over that 27% figure, we should realize that the odds of us doing what we already did, winning all nine of our cupcakes so far (even if we assume we were on average 90% likely to win each game) was only...39%.
Some white people resent when Black people get any sympathetic attention from white people or historically white institutions. They respond by making passive aggressive comments on message boards. Every year, on Junetwentieth, I buy a mattress in their honor.
Right? I hate when people witness injustice and then claim to be outraged by it. Phonies! When I see somebody doing something horrible, I just laugh and shrug and keep walking. #psychopathologyiscool
And the other thing a lot of people don't realize is that Gary Cuozzo went on to become Dr. Cuozzo, a successful orthodontist in central New Jersey, who was responsible for my braces and both of my sisters' braces and he had an autographed football from the Super Bowl on a shelf in his office and he let me hold it.
I logged in to say the Hate Machine/Hope Machine argument is actually spot on *and* brilliantly insightful. And now I feel bad for Mel Tucker, too. Hope should win out over hate. I'd hate to be an MSU fan right about now.
How cool that you specialize in scoring for film! I do live in LA, but I am open to any advice you might have. My son is a senior (at Dartmouth), independently released his first album in January (on Spotify, etc.) but is at square one in terms of developing a network in the business. What year did your son graduate U of M? My email is [email protected] if you'd like to continue this conversation privately. Go Blue!!
Good for you. I wish you luck and satisfaction with the music career. My son is looking to make a career in songwriting. I didn't see your edited last paragraph until I hit send. Good question about the double standard. This gets into a moral dilemma/abstract thought experiment which might feel like intellectualizing a situation that demands moral clarity and not abstraction, so I will just say I think the double standard can be problematic and pernicious and certainly it serves a political speaker ill to derail his point about exploitation by bringing in a separate, unnecessary and completely unsympathetic element.
Good points. I think the victims of this hate are worth more mercy. I'm just not convinced that there isn't still more mercy to go around. Also, as a trial attorney who's been obsessed with convincing people for the past thirty years, I'm not convinced that the best way to show support is unqualified condemnation (and absence of understanding, mercy, bridge-building or calibration with the goal of better ensuring effective persuasion and not simply pushing someone else back into a defensive position). But again, the big point: You seem like a very good and principled person and the Jewish victims of hate deserve and get my mercy and support. Thanks for the good posts.
I like your passion, I agree with your principle and I admire your fierce resolve. With that said, I have spent the past dozen years working with young Black men in South Central LA who are the first in their families to attend college. Among these men, there are some strong, related feelings: (1) The constant negative images and stereotypes in the media place a heavy and very unhelpful burden on their mental health and ability to persevere. (2) Their communities have been exploited by the powers that be. This leads to some strong conspiratorial thinking about white people, the government, the CIA. They also tend to think of Jewish people as a subset of white people, no less to blame for the exploitation. And then when some of their local heroes in the music or entertainment industry complain about exploitation at the hands of entertainment industry executives, agents, lawyers, etc., then those individuals get made the face of White exploitation, and very unfortunately, there seems to be a track record of scapegoating "Jewish" entertainment executives as the primary exploiters.
If Ye's tweet had been purely anti-White with no Jewish aspect, I think I would have just understood it as a voiced objection to exploitation. Once the Jewish aspect gets interjected, I have this visceral revulsion. I'm not sure Black fans of Ye have the same visceral revulsion. My guess from my experiences with the young men I work with is that the point they would be hearing is "our community is being exploited by the powerful White majority and I'm speaking up against that and won't shy away from it." The point for them would be this protest against the White majority, not to create pernicious hatred toward a vulnerable religious minority.
What does this mean for the appropriate punishment of DE for a retweet that he claims was a glitch (a claim the University can express skepticism of but can't disprove)? I'm not sure, but the context of the speaker as being a member of an oppressed racial minority using political speech to speak out about exploitation of his racial community seems relevant.
I'm more comfortable in this context with the current response. From having kids Donovan's age, I do not minimize the mental anguish this must be causing him. I believe he is likely devastated and freaking out that he will be cancelled and has just screwed up his whole life. An overreaction? Sure. That's what his age group specializes in.
Exactly. If PSU has been drilled all week to be ready for play action, that means they are off balance when we are in pistol and not selling out for the run. Mission accomplished.
I just spent five minutes on multiple Google searches. I come up with material that corroborates that pit bulls make up only 6% of the canine population of the US and over 50% of human deaths. Even a petpedia page devoted to "breaking pit bull stereotypes" acknowledges these numbers. I do not find (and I specifically looked) any material that rebuts these statistics. If you do, please cite.
These "stats" are dubious. Labrador retrievers are the most popular breed in the US and have been for years, with goldens and german shepherds in spots 2 and 3. Pit bulls make up only 6% of the population, but according to this 2014 Time magazine article (linked below), account for 68% of dog attacks, and most importantly, 52% of dog-related deaths since 1982, according to research compiled by Merritt Clifton, editor of Animals 24-7, an animal-news organization that focuses on humane work and animal-cruelty prevention.
I don't know "Animals 24-7" but I do trust Time magazine at least more than random internet guy claiming to have done research and providing stats with no citation.
Just read the previous thread. Note of caution to non-dog owners: If your takeaway is "all dogs are potentially dangerous, therefore my kids and I should be equally wary of all dogs," you will be misled. You and your kids should recognize all dogs can be dangerous and give a small dog an 18-inch berth just in case, and a lab or golden maybe a three-foot berth (assuming they are on a leash and being adequately controlled), and if it is a pit bull and you don't know it or its owner, you should cross the street. Better safe than sorry. Yes, it is the owner and let's not demonize dogs, but the place to appreciate a stranger's pit bull is from a very safe distance.
Hahaha!! Finally, someone knows Holmdel (and knows why it might bring the Sopranos to mind)! (Too many dads of high school classmates met tragic ends during a particularly violent stretch in the late 80s.)
Yes!--Klatt said that MW and SM insisted they called plays jointly, with neither having the veto power, not even in high-stakes moments during games. And so I infer from that that they both are just randomly calling plays, without any consideration for context or strategy or personnel.
Good thoughts. A lot here is very well said. But at the end of the day, Harbaugh plays to win championships, and this year, that will mean beating Alabama and/or Georgia. And 2021 Cade wasn't enough. So either we need 2022 Cade to be better or we need to try JJ. That was going to be lurking over Cade's shoulder all season regardless of whether the first two cupcakes were going to split starts. Harbaugh is never looking to tread water. The goal this year isn't 11 wins and a respectable showing at the Shoe and a respectable Bowl. The goal is to surpass last year. That is the reality that is making loyalty to Cade impossible, no matter how much the staff loves him.
Ahhh. Now, I get it. My Irish grandfather was recruited into his local 401(k) regiment and it nearly got him killed. He didn't like talking about it, either.
I was walking with my wife in a remote, mountainous village on an obscure Greek island, feeling a million miles away from civilization, when we passed an old, hunched-over, traditionally-dressed woman chatting a mile-a-minute in Greek with a friend. She must have spotted us out of the corner of her eye because she suddenly turned to me, mid-sentence, pointed at my t-shirt and delivered a guttural, heavily accented, and entirely shocking, "goh...blooh."
Hey guys, quit busting WindyCityBlue's chops. He knows that 17 year old kids sometimes want to go to college away from home and do their own thing, and he knows that you can't force a kid to do anything and sometimes just can't change a kid's mind when he has it in his head that he wants something new. But he just can't understand why Michigan wasn't able to force this kid to change his mind. He's making sense. It's the rest of us who aren't making sense.
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He has my father's profile and if my father had been lucky enough to have gotten into U of M, I would have advised him to go for Ross or Econ. And if he floundered, so be it. The exposure to that world is the key. My father went from shoe shine boy to Wall Street exec. It was never easy and talk of "passion" for a job always struck him as funny. His "passion" was that his parents had third grade educations and he was going to be damned if he was going to stay poor. And the beautiful thing is that this "passion" drove him every day of his working life and gave him tremendous fulfillment when he finally did obtain goals he had barely dreamed of. Even just owning a nice car or having a golf club membership. He appreciated all of it, moreso than his peers who may have had more comfortable beginnings and connections.
Yes, joke. Or at least, absurdist thought experiment.
This is a golden opportunity for Sherrone to make history with the first female S&C coach at a major P5 football program.
He will do well, and in four years, he'll come home again, reassume head coaching duties, and retire at U of M.
I feel like maybe the internet and social media has made people impatient. It's been sixteen days. It's still January. Yes, yes, we all want to know everything immediately, and we can point to *reasons* why this is killing our chances of winning in Columbus next November, but I think "if he's going to do this every year, I wish I was never born!" is probably too much.
It's Dono. Seth was focused on the last post he put up for a player returning. Between the two #9s, Seth would have said: "This is bigger than the *other* one." You wouldn't say "last" in that either/or context.
The books have taken a position on Michigan. They are in the business of not losing big on any single game. If they moved toward Bama just to draw equal betting on both sides, the sharps would immediately pounce with *big* bets and the book would risk losing a ton. The public (dumb) money doesn't influence the line. Anticipating where the sharps are influences the line.
He said tomorrow!
.
Yes, I think you are correct that success on an early 2 pointer would boost confidence and thus boost performance for the second TD. But the problem is your success on the early 2 pointer is too unlikely. It is a 40% likelihood on average and less if you are the 2023 Penn State offense against Michigan's defense. So you are risking too much to get that boost and the odds just aren't in your favor. Making it an inferior strategy to taking the XP, kicking deep, getting the stop, etc.
I would be open to the argument that "momentum" is overrated and even the product of confirmation bias. However, I'm far more skeptical of the suggestion that humans perform exactly as well with confidence as without. That certainly runs counter to my life experience. And if humans perform better with confidence, then you need to consider that in your game plan. And doing the easy thing first is a sure way to boost confidence. In fact, sports psychologists often begin with the premise of breaking challenges up into more manageable pieces and beginning each day with nonnegotiable but easily accomplishable habits. All because success boosts confidence and confidence boosts performance.
The go for 2 early strategy runs counter to this, and I think you run counter to human nature at your peril.
If momentum doesn't matter then you go for two right away. If momentum matters, then you kick the extra point, kickoff deep, get a stop on defense, drive for another score, and attempt a 2pc, same thing you could have done earlier when you lacked momentum, except now you are doing it with momentum, and with the whole stadium behind you.
If we are talking about humans, we need to consider what makes them perform best and less-well.
If we are talking about robots, then, def, go for two early.
Great work, Brian. I appreciate you. Thanks for this site, the wisdom, all of it.
The statistics don't lie but sometimes they also don't tell the truth people think they tell.
The 20-30% chance offends my gut sense that we are really good this year and likely to win each of these games.
In fact, my gut is that we have a 63% chance of beating Penn State in Happy Valley, an 80% chance of beating Maryland at Maryland and then a 55% chance of beating an undefeated top-ranked Ohio State team at home.
Which, if you multiply those odds together...results in a 27% likelihood of winning them all.
But before we feel too concerned over that 27% figure, we should realize that the odds of us doing what we already did, winning all nine of our cupcakes so far (even if we assume we were on average 90% likely to win each game) was only...39%.
Annnd he's a ventriloquist!
Some white people resent when Black people get any sympathetic attention from white people or historically white institutions. They respond by making passive aggressive comments on message boards. Every year, on Junetwentieth, I buy a mattress in their honor.
No, sir. Psychopaths see injustice and laugh and shrug and keep walking. But not everyone who ignores injustice is a psychopath.
Right? I hate when people witness injustice and then claim to be outraged by it. Phonies! When I see somebody doing something horrible, I just laugh and shrug and keep walking. #psychopathologyiscool
And the other thing a lot of people don't realize is that Gary Cuozzo went on to become Dr. Cuozzo, a successful orthodontist in central New Jersey, who was responsible for my braces and both of my sisters' braces and he had an autographed football from the Super Bowl on a shelf in his office and he let me hold it.
When guys says smart, reasonable things on internet, it deserves a little recognition.
Ha! Then what is your first guess, W-A-I-V-E?
Same, same and same. [My first word is "R-A-I-S-E."]
Wow what a refreshing, wise post. Grateful for you, sir!
Is it bad luck to include Jyaire Hill before he has announced?
Seth, what do you know, what does that Internet Wayback Machine screen grab mean, is Hill coming our way??
I logged in to say the Hate Machine/Hope Machine argument is actually spot on *and* brilliantly insightful. And now I feel bad for Mel Tucker, too. Hope should win out over hate. I'd hate to be an MSU fan right about now.
How cool that you specialize in scoring for film! I do live in LA, but I am open to any advice you might have. My son is a senior (at Dartmouth), independently released his first album in January (on Spotify, etc.) but is at square one in terms of developing a network in the business. What year did your son graduate U of M? My email is [email protected] if you'd like to continue this conversation privately. Go Blue!!
Good for you. I wish you luck and satisfaction with the music career. My son is looking to make a career in songwriting. I didn't see your edited last paragraph until I hit send. Good question about the double standard. This gets into a moral dilemma/abstract thought experiment which might feel like intellectualizing a situation that demands moral clarity and not abstraction, so I will just say I think the double standard can be problematic and pernicious and certainly it serves a political speaker ill to derail his point about exploitation by bringing in a separate, unnecessary and completely unsympathetic element.
Good points. I think the victims of this hate are worth more mercy. I'm just not convinced that there isn't still more mercy to go around. Also, as a trial attorney who's been obsessed with convincing people for the past thirty years, I'm not convinced that the best way to show support is unqualified condemnation (and absence of understanding, mercy, bridge-building or calibration with the goal of better ensuring effective persuasion and not simply pushing someone else back into a defensive position). But again, the big point: You seem like a very good and principled person and the Jewish victims of hate deserve and get my mercy and support. Thanks for the good posts.
I like your passion, I agree with your principle and I admire your fierce resolve. With that said, I have spent the past dozen years working with young Black men in South Central LA who are the first in their families to attend college. Among these men, there are some strong, related feelings: (1) The constant negative images and stereotypes in the media place a heavy and very unhelpful burden on their mental health and ability to persevere. (2) Their communities have been exploited by the powers that be. This leads to some strong conspiratorial thinking about white people, the government, the CIA. They also tend to think of Jewish people as a subset of white people, no less to blame for the exploitation. And then when some of their local heroes in the music or entertainment industry complain about exploitation at the hands of entertainment industry executives, agents, lawyers, etc., then those individuals get made the face of White exploitation, and very unfortunately, there seems to be a track record of scapegoating "Jewish" entertainment executives as the primary exploiters.
If Ye's tweet had been purely anti-White with no Jewish aspect, I think I would have just understood it as a voiced objection to exploitation. Once the Jewish aspect gets interjected, I have this visceral revulsion. I'm not sure Black fans of Ye have the same visceral revulsion. My guess from my experiences with the young men I work with is that the point they would be hearing is "our community is being exploited by the powerful White majority and I'm speaking up against that and won't shy away from it." The point for them would be this protest against the White majority, not to create pernicious hatred toward a vulnerable religious minority.
What does this mean for the appropriate punishment of DE for a retweet that he claims was a glitch (a claim the University can express skepticism of but can't disprove)? I'm not sure, but the context of the speaker as being a member of an oppressed racial minority using political speech to speak out about exploitation of his racial community seems relevant.
I'm more comfortable in this context with the current response. From having kids Donovan's age, I do not minimize the mental anguish this must be causing him. I believe he is likely devastated and freaking out that he will be cancelled and has just screwed up his whole life. An overreaction? Sure. That's what his age group specializes in.
Let's have mercy and try to build a bridge here.
Or "crucify," but now we're probably inducing more nausea.
Double post.
Exactly. If PSU has been drilled all week to be ready for play action, that means they are off balance when we are in pistol and not selling out for the run. Mission accomplished.
We don't eff with leases.
We own, Penn State!!
I just spent five minutes on multiple Google searches. I come up with material that corroborates that pit bulls make up only 6% of the canine population of the US and over 50% of human deaths. Even a petpedia page devoted to "breaking pit bull stereotypes" acknowledges these numbers. I do not find (and I specifically looked) any material that rebuts these statistics. If you do, please cite.
These "stats" are dubious. Labrador retrievers are the most popular breed in the US and have been for years, with goldens and german shepherds in spots 2 and 3. Pit bulls make up only 6% of the population, but according to this 2014 Time magazine article (linked below), account for 68% of dog attacks, and most importantly, 52% of dog-related deaths since 1982, according to research compiled by Merritt Clifton, editor of Animals 24-7, an animal-news organization that focuses on humane work and animal-cruelty prevention.
I don't know "Animals 24-7" but I do trust Time magazine at least more than random internet guy claiming to have done research and providing stats with no citation.
https://time.com/2891180/kfc-and-the-pit-bull-attack-of-a-little-girl/
"And he just gave him the old OKIE DOKE!!"
Just read the previous thread. Note of caution to non-dog owners: If your takeaway is "all dogs are potentially dangerous, therefore my kids and I should be equally wary of all dogs," you will be misled. You and your kids should recognize all dogs can be dangerous and give a small dog an 18-inch berth just in case, and a lab or golden maybe a three-foot berth (assuming they are on a leash and being adequately controlled), and if it is a pit bull and you don't know it or its owner, you should cross the street. Better safe than sorry. Yes, it is the owner and let's not demonize dogs, but the place to appreciate a stranger's pit bull is from a very safe distance.
Hahaha!! Finally, someone knows Holmdel (and knows why it might bring the Sopranos to mind)! (Too many dads of high school classmates met tragic ends during a particularly violent stretch in the late 80s.)
Also, the safety.
I think it's not done! I think I just experienced something flukish! I feel like I was born at exactly the right time!!!
Yes!--Klatt said that MW and SM insisted they called plays jointly, with neither having the veto power, not even in high-stakes moments during games. And so I infer from that that they both are just randomly calling plays, without any consideration for context or strategy or personnel.
Wait, what?
Great stuff!
Good thoughts. A lot here is very well said. But at the end of the day, Harbaugh plays to win championships, and this year, that will mean beating Alabama and/or Georgia. And 2021 Cade wasn't enough. So either we need 2022 Cade to be better or we need to try JJ. That was going to be lurking over Cade's shoulder all season regardless of whether the first two cupcakes were going to split starts. Harbaugh is never looking to tread water. The goal this year isn't 11 wins and a respectable showing at the Shoe and a respectable Bowl. The goal is to surpass last year. That is the reality that is making loyalty to Cade impossible, no matter how much the staff loves him.
Ahhh. Now, I get it. My Irish grandfather was recruited into his local 401(k) regiment and it nearly got him killed. He didn't like talking about it, either.
Why shouldn't you discuss your retirement plans inside a pub?
She was in Comedy Company with me at U of M back in the day. It's crazy to see her now as AG.
I was walking with my wife in a remote, mountainous village on an obscure Greek island, feeling a million miles away from civilization, when we passed an old, hunched-over, traditionally-dressed woman chatting a mile-a-minute in Greek with a friend. She must have spotted us out of the corner of her eye because she suddenly turned to me, mid-sentence, pointed at my t-shirt and delivered a guttural, heavily accented, and entirely shocking, "goh...blooh."
Hey guys, quit busting WindyCityBlue's chops. He knows that 17 year old kids sometimes want to go to college away from home and do their own thing, and he knows that you can't force a kid to do anything and sometimes just can't change a kid's mind when he has it in his head that he wants something new. But he just can't understand why Michigan wasn't able to force this kid to change his mind. He's making sense. It's the rest of us who aren't making sense.