Let's talk Iowa
I paid little attention to Iowa the first couple games but have watched their last two. Here are some stats and thoughts from my untrained eye:
Iowa on Offense:
- One of the lowest ranked teams in cfb...bad...ranked 98th in ppg (20.3). Yards per game is also bad...ranked 121 of 131 teams
- They don't convert 3rd downs
- All rushing and passing stats rank from #80 to #125
- The o-line looks better than last year with a note the competition hasn't been great
- Petras looks the same
- The offense doesn't turn the ball over and they don't make a lot of mistakes. The best description is they just get gummed up, don't convert on 3rd down and rely on the D to make a game changing play.
- What it means for Michigan: Michigan secondary can lock down this teams passing attack. Play stout, base football and stop the run. Throw in a few exotic looks on 3rd down and you could totally throw this team and should be able to stop them on every damn 3rd down. The way their RB runs it is hard and downhill so I think it gives UM it's first taste of a punch you in the face downhill runner. That said, they aren't great runners but their dude hit a few holes and hit them hard. If they start pulling 3rd down conversions out of their butt...that is when I'd worry.
Iowa on Defense
- Ball hawks. No mistakes, stick to their assignments, and they go 100% play in and play out. I was really impressed watching them, even against bad competition.
- Not exciting, not exotic. They lull you to sleep in cover 4 and then bash your face in with a turnover when you make a mistake.
- Against rutgers they had a pick 6 and scoop and score
- No mistakes, but they will capitalize on every mistake you make.
- #2 in opp points/game (6.7)
- #11 in yards per game (275yrds)
- #3 in yards/play (3.7)...#8 in yards per rush, and #2 in yards per pass allowed
- #9 in turnovers at 1.7 takeways a game
- What it means for Michigan: Iowa will make michigan take as many snaps as humanly possible. I'd assume after the Maryland game you have to think "make JJ take snaps and get him to make 1-2 key mistakes and force a turnover that keeps you in the game". That's not a knock on JJ...it has to be the gameplan. You tell the Iowa front and the linebackers they have to deal with the run game and hold Corum and in the back you just don't get beat over the top and make JJ take another snap. Sit in your cover 4 all day, another snap, another snap, another snap. That is all that matters. Make JJ take a million snaps and play the odds you get turnovers
Don't get all crappy if this is a "sloggy" game (is that a word?). It has to be bend don't break all day for Iowa and they just try to prey on the couple of mistakes they hope michigan makes find their 2 turnovers. I think Michigan can run on the bend don't break (not like Maryland, but enough) to loosen things up and give JJ a chance to hit some passes. I hope Edwards is back because I think it adds a whole other dimension that will be tough for Iowa to deal with. This MD game because a critical learning experience and JJ thrives this week.
My early Monday prediction that could change is Michigan 27 Iowa 13.
As a side note, I'm curious about the play calling. Klatt's interview with MW and SM was interesting. It really sounds like they are just randomly calling plays back and forth. I have a lot of faith Harbaugh helps streamline the process and not concerned.
I'm nervous...help me not be nervous?
September 26th, 2022 at 11:44 AM ^
Yes!--Klatt said that MW and SM insisted they called plays jointly, with neither having the veto power, not even in high-stakes moments during games. And so I infer from that that they both are just randomly calling plays, without any consideration for context or strategy or personnel.
Wait, what?
September 26th, 2022 at 11:50 AM ^
They are always going to say that. Nobody wants on their resume that they weren't really the OC. From the clips they showed, it's clearly Weiss calling the plays.
Michigan having co-Coordinators is good, it's the only reason we can keep some of these coaches longer than we should. And it's the only way we're going to hold onto Jay Harbaugh until he's ready to actually call plays.
September 26th, 2022 at 12:06 PM ^
We're Michigan fans.
Having co-coordinators is bad because we think it will slow things down and we hate that, so we hate them.
Then when we have one person calling the plays some of them won't work so clearly we'll hate that, and then hate them.
And social media experts who stand to gain from clicks will tell us either way that our playcalling is bad, and we'll soak that in without any prudential judgement and thus think we are being robbed of a national championship caliber point-a-half-second high flying offense, and we'll hate that.
And that's how we'll be happy in rooting for our team.
September 26th, 2022 at 12:31 PM ^
This guy Michigan footballs.
September 26th, 2022 at 1:30 PM ^
Also the press has told us that interviewing for a pro coaching job will kill recruiting. That is why Coach K and Izzo couldnt recruit after their interviews.
September 26th, 2022 at 1:56 PM ^
Science says that as long as they wear headphones all is good.
September 26th, 2022 at 12:23 PM ^
"Michigan having co-Coordinators ... the only reason we can keep some of these coaches..."
Keep UM coaches out of the transfer portal!
September 26th, 2022 at 12:30 PM ^
Exactly. It’s interesting that Minter & Clinkscale are co DCs yet no one is nearly as nervous about that idea and are reasonably able to infer that Minter is calling the defense during the game.
September 26th, 2022 at 7:51 PM ^
Regardless of who is calling the plays, some things will always be true for a Harbaugh offense:
1) The starting QB (especially with the qualified backup injured) will almost always be giving to the RB on what would otherwise seem to be a read option play.
2) Michigan will try to establish things, even in situations where it doesn't seem to make sense, and this can lead to disjointed play calling. I do think this is because they have the process and the big picture in mind, but it can lead to some baffling decisions.
3) While we seem to have reduced the number of FB snaps, a Jim Harbaugh team will always utilize multiple TEs. This is mostly a plus, but like point number 2 can lead to some question as to why the more athletic receivers don't get more snaps.
A Jim Harbaugh team will likely never drop 70 with the frequency of Big 12 Ryan Day's teams because they don't play at the same pace, emphasize running the ball more, and quite frankly don't have quite the same level of efficiency in utilizing their athletic talent. I think that is probably ok, because I see Jim building a program to serve as a foil to Ryan Day's. The thing that worries me this year is the lack of an elite edge player which means we will probably have to disguise things and play unsound more than I would like, however I don't think the Buckeyes will see a secondary as good as Michigan's (except for maybe Penn State, although I think Michigan's safeties are better).
September 27th, 2022 at 11:15 PM ^
I certainly agree with you at the end there with a lack of elite edge rusher - at least for a team like Ohio State. Michigan will 100% have to pressure Stroud all day to stay in that game.
September 26th, 2022 at 11:54 AM ^
I sense the sarcasm and agree it isn't totally random chaos and wasn't trying to insinuate that. I would be surprised though if it wasn't a little clunky and probably needs to tighten up who is responsible for what, when. It's one of the concerns brought up here with the two play callers (and any team that has two play callers). Really shouldn't be surprised if it is a little clunky but I have zero concern and expect it to be a 1+2=5 thing by the end of the year.
September 26th, 2022 at 11:55 AM ^
That is one inference. The other inferences are JH calls it, one coordinator concedes to another coordinator, or they just don't want to share with the media. I don't know why you think they call plays without evaluating the situation of the play.
September 26th, 2022 at 12:02 PM ^
For clarity my original post does sound like I think they are randomly throwing darts on the wall. That's really not my feelings, more that it's likely clunky...maybe a little weird but that I'm also not worried.
But the reality is that was one of the primary topics of discussion and is anytime there are two play callers so I think it's fair to ask, wonder, and ponder when you have offensive firepower like UM does this year.
But again, shouldn't have made that wording so "aggressive" in the initial post I guess you could say.
September 26th, 2022 at 12:05 PM ^
I might be missing something (seriously, I haven't seen the interview mentioned in the OP and I haven't been scrutinizing shots on the sideline, so I'm open to data that I don't have here) but as best I can tell Weiss is the one actually calling in the plays. It is probable that Moore is the running game coordinator and helps develop and install the gameplan during the week. Being co-OCs does *not* mean co-play-callers. Even if there is some input on gameday (for example, "Sherronne, what kind of blocking scheme should we use when they show two-high next time?"), it winds up being one guy making the call when it gets sent in.
September 26th, 2022 at 1:37 PM ^
No actual interview. Klatt said during the game that he talked to both guys leading up to the game, as color analysts to every week, and he asked them who has veto power and they said neither one of them do.
Sounded like something they would say just so they both can have OC on their resume, but Klatt wouldn't let it go, even as UM as moving the ball at will on Saturday.
Klatt is usually pretty good, but he sometimes gets stuck on something and won't let it go. Like during the B1G championship game last year he must have said "tips and overthrows" 20 times during the broadcast. Then when there was the pass slightly behind All and it was picked he was able to justify his "tips and overthrows".
Saturday he was stuck on the CO-OC thing. Then when the ball was handed to Gash on 3rd and 4 and it was stuffed he was justified with his comments.
September 26th, 2022 at 1:42 PM ^
Ok. I heard that part and it just read to me as Klatt was pressing for details and they declined to give any, as I would expect. That's a far cry from a chaotic "we're both taking turns calling plays" situation. It is doubtless that they have defined and distinct responsibilities. It is quite possible that neither has any sort of rank veto power, since any disagreements (which wouldn't necessarily happen a lot if they don't overlap too much) could be settled by the head coach. I was wondering if there was an actual interview I missed pregame or something.
Co-OCs does not mean co-playcallers.
September 26th, 2022 at 2:02 PM ^
Proof by assertion?
September 26th, 2022 at 2:02 PM ^
Proof by assertion?
September 26th, 2022 at 12:12 PM ^
I don't think OP was saying that there wasn't any consideration to strategy or personnel. However, Klatt did make it sound like the process was one person says "pass, trips right" and the other person might say "balanced I, off-tackle run left," and then they play a literal game of RPS to decide which play call to take.
He seemed miffed that the coaches wouldn't tell him who's calling the shots.
Suffice it to say, I do not have the same glowing opinion of Joel Klatt that several people on this site seem to have.
September 26th, 2022 at 12:34 PM ^
I generally feel that Klatt is excellent but this was a weird showing. Several times he said Maryland, other than the turnovers, was "dominating" the game and I think that's pure hyperbole. Yes, MD was moving the ball and Michigan was inconsistent, but even then it was a back and forth game, not one team dominating. And the big discussion about play calling was distracting. Yes, they could still be working out details and comfort so things may be disjointed at times but it was not anything crazy. The passing game didn't look great because receivers were not getting open. How much of that was scheme vs lack of extra effort was not clear to me.
September 26th, 2022 at 12:40 PM ^
I suspect that part of the problem with receiver separation was the fact that defensive holding was turned off for this game.
September 28th, 2022 at 10:28 AM ^
and offensive holding and false starts…
September 26th, 2022 at 12:47 PM ^
There were open receivers. JJ wasn't always finding them or hitting them; he had guys open, especially deep. 3rd downs were a problem, at least somewhat a JJ problem.
I will say that Roman Wilson could be dominant if he were an explosive route-runner. He has the speed to get downfield but he'd make more space for himself if his routes didn't slide so much.
September 26th, 2022 at 12:53 PM ^
It’s true that JJ missed on some windows for open receivers plus there were the 3 clear-miss-overthrows, but some of the route combinations were terribly ineffective. There were multiple times where all of the outside receivers would run vertical routes but there wouldn’t be much happening underneath. And this was happening against a team that dropped 7 or 8 into a 2-deep zone coverage on what seemed like every play. The passing game just did not seem to have much diversity in the routes for the receivers to run and when JJ’s timing was just a beat off, or he missed a small window here or there, the play was effectively a dud. To be clear I think this issue can and will be fixed, but it’s something to keep an eye on.
September 26th, 2022 at 1:24 PM ^
Overstated. In most cases Michigan was springing guys open.
Due referenced the 4-vert play on the 3rd-and-8 here and griped about it, describing it (unfairly and somewhat innaccurately, IMO) as a "pep special."
So this play *did* take a while to develop. But JJ had 4 seconds to release to a guy and did not. I don't know what the rules are for the receivers on when to break their routes, so I can't comment on whether they all did what was assigned, but:
Cornelius Johnson broke inside. His route was, IMO, a bit imprecise, but after cutting through the dropping Maryland LB, he was open in the middle of the field for a first down.
Schoonmaker and Bell were both past the first level of the defense. A softly-thrown ball to either would invite a deep safety to intervene... but a rocket to Schoonmaker high, or to Bell on the sideline, could split the zone coverage and find an open man.
All of these players were open at 4 seconds, when JJ still had a chance to make a throw.
I can accept an argument that it was a bit of a tough play to execute, but: 1. One of the things we want JJ to do is execute these plays (FWIW, that doesn't mean "go back to Cade," as JJ has done everything Cade could do flawlessly so far); 2. This was not a common play. In most circumstances there were route combos with multiple levels of receivers available, and often some open guys.
That doesn't mean that all the route combos were great or called at the right time, but it's not like Weiss was dialing up 4 verts all the time. Michigan used a variety of combos, including significant variety on 3rd downs, and generally came up empty-handed. And they also used some of these deep threatening routes to open up stuff underneath. In fact, shallow crosses underneath deep pressure were executed well several times.
September 26th, 2022 at 2:00 PM ^
That one example is a bit imprecise imo. CoJo doesn’t come up until the beat right as the MD defender is on JJ’s back from what I could tell. I also think something we saw throughout the entire MD game is that JJ was gunshy about throws to bracketed receives. He basically never threw a long pass where the receiver hadn’t already taken the top off the defense. If there was an over-the-top defender on a receiver during the play, he wasn’t making that throw. I don’t know if that’s a JJ thing, a MD thing, or a coaching staff thing, but it was prominent to me. So, even if there was a window to Bell and Schoonmaker there, the previous plays in the game indicate that he wasn’t trying those throws in that instance if the over-the-top defense had them truly bracketed.
That doesn't mean that all the route combos were great or called at the right time, but it's not like Weiss was dialing up 4 verts all the time. Michigan used a variety of combos, including significant variety on 3rd downs
And I didn’t insist it was all the time, but there were many passing downs when there were 15-20 yard routes downfield that took a few beats to develop, and JJ was progressing through reads very quickly because there were almost always 2 defenders for every downfield receiver. I think it’s a case of first year starter seeing a defensive scheme he’s not seen before at this level and moving off reads too quickly. But, plenty of unused concepts like curls, comebacks, back-shoulder, Hi-Lo crossing, or bubble screens that could have been rolled out to give JJ some easier options below the deeper coverage were barely or never utilized in the MD game.
Just an example of what I mean was a 3rd down in the red zone in the 4th quarter. MD was lined up in their base defense and was off the LOS a good 5-6 yards. Michigan runs a 3 route concept with what seemed like a max protect. MD rushed 4, and no one comes open, so JJ has to throw it away. (I believe this was the MD out of bounds INT play). The three route concept was Ronnie Bell running a fade, CoJo on the same side running an in which he options into an out route, and Roman Wilson just getting blown up before even beginning his route. I mean that’s a bad play design for 3rd down in the red zone in a one score football game. Especially when MD has only been rushing 4 pretty much all game.
And they also used some of these deep threatening routes to open up stuff underneath. In fact, shallow crosses underneath deep pressure were executed well several times.
I do mostly agree with you here. A large portion of JJ’s completions were on more intermediate routes, many of which were in the middle of the field. And so I think we can assume that he was able to read through the MD zone with some competency because of this. And his YPC of around 8.5 backs up that many of his completions were in that intermediate area of the field. All I’m asserting is that Michigan could have attacked MD here more, especially with how much better they are athletically. I mean, they truly could’ve 2018 OSU’d Maryland in this game and it felt like a deliberate choice to not exploit that as much as possible. That’s really what I’m getting at here.
Of course, you and I are just making a lot of best guesses about the play calls, and I don’t have all-22 to see much beyond what any additional replays and the camera angle can tell us about the route combo. I thought that they were suboptimal in quite a few instances throughout the game. But yeah I also think JJ was missing on some stuff too. I’m also not overly worried because I think these are both very fixable issues.
September 26th, 2022 at 4:11 PM ^
Mostly small differences in our takes, and much to agree on. Good response.
September 26th, 2022 at 5:53 PM ^
Somebody had to run the wrong route on the sack. Not one receiver was at the chains.
September 26th, 2022 at 7:41 PM ^
Klatt was trying to create a narrative, and Michigan is usually everyone’s favorite team to poopoo on when chance is given.
September 26th, 2022 at 12:45 PM ^
Yes, that summarizes my thoughts. I laid it on a bit think in the OP but your post is where my head is.
September 26th, 2022 at 12:50 PM ^
The fact that there's no way they're just randomly calling plays has already been covered in this thread. One thing I'll add: I wonder if one guy being in the booth and one being on the field plays into the process. Each might be able to pick up on things the other can't, based on vantage point. That said, I agree w/ others who've insinuated that one guy ultimately has veto power here.
September 26th, 2022 at 5:21 PM ^
I just figured one guy calls a passing play, one calls a running play, and Harbaugh decides which one gets sent to the QB.
September 26th, 2022 at 11:45 AM ^
Iowa in a nutshell:
September 26th, 2022 at 11:57 AM ^
In other news: Minnesota!
September 26th, 2022 at 12:33 PM ^
Minny at PSU should be interesting. Unfortunately, it’s the week after PSU comes to Ann Arbor.
September 26th, 2022 at 12:06 PM ^
Iowa outside the nutshell.
September 26th, 2022 at 12:14 PM ^
I was looking for the Hawkeye amongst all the other logos when I saw a spec out of my left eye. That is some weird statistical anomaly.
September 26th, 2022 at 12:46 PM ^
ha that's awesome...I was looking everywhere for Iowa on the chart...suffice to say they are way, way out there.
September 26th, 2022 at 1:29 PM ^
How about those pre-season top 10 fighting Irish.
September 26th, 2022 at 11:49 AM ^
Shouldn't be a game but you know it will be.
September 26th, 2022 at 11:53 AM ^
It will be nerve-wracking. But we should win with ease. Should. Kinnick is the place football seasons go to die.
September 26th, 2022 at 11:54 AM ^
Hitting on a couple deep balls will be critical. There’s no way they have the secondary to keep up with our speed. As long as we can hit over the top, the rest will be fine. It’s what cost us in 2016. We couldn’t hit ANYTHING deep. Connecting just one deep ball in that game and we win. Iowa is designed to make you work your way down the field in 12+ play drives.
September 26th, 2022 at 11:57 AM ^
I think you are right, but also feels like there will be only a few precious times to hit those. They take "bend don't break" to the extreme so when one does open up you must hit it.
Just as important may be short passes with YAC.
September 26th, 2022 at 12:28 PM ^
Let's just get JJ out to block for Corum. Iowa tends to not be able to deal with QBs who can run ahead of their RBs and block.
September 26th, 2022 at 1:07 PM ^
The announcers didn't give Sainristil his due on that play. He's the guy who wiped out the last defender and cleared the way for Blake to house it.
September 26th, 2022 at 11:59 AM ^
And it's not like we didn't have the chances in 2016, either. I wouldn't be surprised if Speight missed 4-5 wide open deep shots in that game, any one of which would have given us the win.
September 26th, 2022 at 12:33 PM ^
Highlights from the Rutgers game show that there are spots where this defense can be had. Rutgers had some good wrinkles that got them chunk yards. The only thing keeping that game from being closer was Rutgers continually shooting themselves in the foot at the most inopportune times.
September 26th, 2022 at 12:50 PM ^
Two defensive TDs by Iowa won the game. The pick wasn’t a terrible throw, but the scoop and score defies explanation. The Rutgers guy had the first down, got hit (not helmet on ball or arm) and then just drops the ball where there are 4 or 5 Hawkeyes who then casually stroll into the endzone. The Iowa D has some next level juju going on, it’s just unreal.
September 26th, 2022 at 12:48 PM ^
Their secondary is a huge strength every year. They have a DB on one side (DeJean) that has a pick three straight weeks now (and returned at least one for a TD). The other DB is Riley Moss. All he’s done is win last year’s Best DB in the B1G award (Tatum-Woodson Defensive Back of the Year).
Deep passing is not where UM wins the game. They win by out-Iowaing Iowa. Solid run game and quick passes that move the chains. UM cannot afford to settle for FGs on their possessions. UM needs TDs to overcome the inevitable fgs that Iowa gets after playing field position by punting to pin UM deep and then bringing pressure with their stellar LB play that leads to a bad throw near one of the aforementioned DBs.
I’m not saying never take shots, it’s just not what’s likely to go the way we want it to if that’s what UM tries to do on offense all day.