First line I’ve seen UM -7, O/U 46.5. Thoughts?
November 5th, 2023 at 3:36 PM ^
Hopefully the rust is knocked off and running game is fully weaponized so we can run it up on frames and his band of whiners!
November 5th, 2023 at 3:41 PM ^
Agree...remember too that JJ plays much better on the road. He's an assassin from the opening kickoff and is on record saying he loves road games.
UM 31-13
November 5th, 2023 at 4:41 PM ^
I’d love to agree but the same rust for PSU was likely knocked off with 51 points yesterday. They’ll be ready to go.
However, I don’t think PSU has faced a defense like UM and their tendency to focus on short yardage gains between the sticks plays right into Minter’s strengths.
I think Michigan plays loose and PSU plays ball control but doesn’t pick up the 3rd downs needed to sustain drives. Give me 24-13 good guys, no major injuries and we’re good.
November 5th, 2023 at 4:53 PM ^
See how they did against OSUs D
November 5th, 2023 at 5:10 PM ^
1 for 16 on 3rd downs, I believe. Something like that.
November 5th, 2023 at 4:48 PM ^
We got to get our run game going..chunk yards have been tough to come by...alot of guys getting tripped up with open field in front of them.
November 5th, 2023 at 5:12 PM ^
PSU's defense is legit. We have to be able to run some on them. OSU was in trouble against PSU until they were able to start running the ball. Then they were able to go to Harrison.
November 5th, 2023 at 5:32 PM ^
Yeah. I don't have a lot of confidence in UM's ability to run the ball against PSU's defense. I think UM's defense holds PSU's running game in check so it'll come down to the QB's and the passing games. That should be a big edge for UM, assuming the UM tackles can be ok in pass protection.
November 5th, 2023 at 5:50 PM ^
We don't have to run ala 2022, but we have to be able to get some 4, 5 yard runs that keep them from just teeing off on JJ every down. OSU was able to do that. Not a lot, but some. It freed up Harrison when it mattered.
November 5th, 2023 at 6:53 PM ^
Michigan will need to be in 2nd and short and 3rd and short on possessions. Blake, Donovan or Kalel will need to average 5-6yds/carry. Last night Blake had a 2.9yd/carry average on 14 attempts. That won't get it done against PSU in Happy Valley.
I know Donovan has been way sort of that all season but now is the time to step up.
November 5th, 2023 at 5:45 PM ^
JJ is going to need to run to some degree. They have been saving him. Go watch highlights of both QBs yesterday in LSU Bama. Doesn't need to be to that degree but it's a 2 game season and we need to utilize his threat of legs.
The run game is what it is. Pass game and JJs legs will open up traditional run.
JJ is the best QB of the 3 playing in these 2 games and will need to show that.
November 5th, 2023 at 3:38 PM ^
I think it depends on QB play. We need to get some sort of run game going early. If we see JJ vs MSU version I think they win and cover. If we see a BGSU or Purdue version I think it will be a low scoring and close contest.
November 5th, 2023 at 4:06 PM ^
I disagree on the run game early. That's a good recipe for being behind at the half.
If I'm Michigan's OC, I'm running play-action and being sure to get Wilson, Barner, Loveland, and Edwards involved in the pass game early. I'm getting JJ out of the pocket on designed rollouts. I'm pulling out the RPOs I hope Michigan has been saving for this game. And JJ's gotta run the ball in the first half.
In other words, pass to set up the run, not the other way around.
We need to be aggressive and strike early against the PSU D.
November 5th, 2023 at 4:48 PM ^
Edwards is sooo close to breaking the big gains, it’s almost nerve wracking.
If UM gets up by two scores, pin your ears back and let’s see Allar force some INTs.
H. Card did show last night what happens when you over-commit your front 7 and beat you with their legs. Spy the dude and rushing 4 or 5 should be fine.
November 5th, 2023 at 5:49 PM ^
Agree so much.
People still seem to live in a world our running game is dominant and even then look when teams like TCU committed to stopping it at all cost..
November 5th, 2023 at 6:58 PM ^
The TCU game plan to stop Michigan's run has been effective nearly all season for opposing teams to copy. Sharrone and staff will need to come up with another way to get the run going--as in improving.
The OL this year is not at the all-time great level as last season. They are a notch or two lower. They are very good but not great.
November 5th, 2023 at 3:39 PM ^
If we don't run the ball better, we are in trouble.
November 5th, 2023 at 3:46 PM ^
I completely disagree. This whole season has been about getting JJ ready for game like this.
We win with JJs arm/legs and dominant defense.
November 5th, 2023 at 4:07 PM ^
All the whining about the run game, when we’ve got an explosive passing attack, after a decade of whining about using the running game instead of using a dynamic passing attack is THE most Michigan thing ever…
UM is taking what the D gives us, the run game will be there when we need it, running 10 on 10 is always going to be tough sledding, calm down and enjoy 3 & 8 being a 72% conversion rate…instead of dive or draw to set up punt or FG
November 5th, 2023 at 4:21 PM ^
Hallelujah! Well said. I need to copy and paste this into too many text chains.
November 5th, 2023 at 5:06 PM ^
It’s not going to be so easy converting 3rd and long against PSU. Need to throw on first down
November 5th, 2023 at 7:07 PM ^
It’s naive to believe the run game will magically appear when we want it. Hasn’t been there for 9 games. We need to win without it.
November 5th, 2023 at 8:06 PM ^
It's also naive to think we've been using all the plays in our run game the way we will this Saturday.
November 5th, 2023 at 7:58 PM ^
I somewhat agree. This is the best defense we have faced all season. Playcalling will be the difference. If we try to force between tackles with Donovan over and over again and end up in 2nd 9, 3rd and 8, I think it will be a low scoring game.
November 5th, 2023 at 4:08 PM ^
Yup, it's JJ's time to shine and show why he's a definite Heisman finalist and probable top-5 pick.
November 5th, 2023 at 4:09 PM ^
I mean, OSU can't run the ball and have a worse QB and they won that game somewhat comfortably. Yes, if a team plays cover 1 and your QB doesn't run you might be stymied a bit but if PSU tries that they're going to be blown off the field.
UM isn't an Uber elite running team like the past two years but they are still really good on the ground.
November 5th, 2023 at 5:50 PM ^
Henderson averages 6.5 yards per rush. I missed the part where he can't run...
That is after playing PSU and an ok ND
Corum is at 5.2 playing Rutgers and a bunch of bags of air. Dont ask about Edwards.
November 5th, 2023 at 5:53 PM ^
Did he even play against PSU? If so, was he just back from injury?
November 5th, 2023 at 8:40 PM ^
He didn't, but why let that get in the way of the 100,000th rant we've seen on this board this season about our run game?
November 5th, 2023 at 4:19 PM ^
I think we've demonstrated this season that we can move the ball fine even when the run game is bottled up.
But also, when the run game is bottled up, it's usually due to us not using JJ's legs at all. He'll run the ball Saturday.
November 5th, 2023 at 8:00 PM ^
We haven't played a defense like psu, on the road, our oline makes me nervous, it is the key to the game, without question
November 5th, 2023 at 5:02 PM ^
I think it will improve this week with JJ running again to widen/hold the LBs just enough for the RBs to get a little extra gap. Plus, PSU will truly play to win rather than avoid the run game bludgeoning that earlier competition feared. They will defend the pass more, which should help UM get more balance.
If those conditions don’t occur and the run game stays in 2nd gear, then this game could be tight.
November 5th, 2023 at 5:43 PM ^
The run game last year included the legs of JJ. That threat did aid our success I think. But some things have been held back I suspect for the last of the schedule. I predict more outside zones, design QB runs, bluff duo, stretch plays etc that will help the inside run game. From the start of the season I believed that he Penn State D line is vulnerable in the middle. And if they come down hill in the middle the passing and outside game will be there.
November 5th, 2023 at 3:41 PM ^
Michigan covers in Happy Valley 30-16 We’ll make it a long night for Allar.
November 5th, 2023 at 3:41 PM ^
I am also seeing UM -6.5 or UM -7.
UM -7 feels a bit high to me. PSU's D is legit.
I suspect the line on gameday will be UM -5 or UM -4. More likely UM -5.
#GoBlue
November 5th, 2023 at 3:41 PM ^
I'm seeing Michigan (-4.5)
November 5th, 2023 at 4:09 PM ^
I'm here reporting on the ground in Nevada and what started out this morning at -4.5 has moved now to -5.0. Possibly on account of my large bet on the Wolverines. You're trying to tell me the best Michigan team any of us has ever seen can't beat this Penn State team? Please. I bet it's over 7 points by game time.
November 5th, 2023 at 3:42 PM ^
24-10 sounds about right, but this game scares the crap out of me. I think UM is a much better team than PSU, but playing in that stadium and just cruising through all their games so far this year could be real obstacles the team will have to overcome.
November 5th, 2023 at 3:43 PM ^
I can see this. Agree with the post.
November 5th, 2023 at 3:47 PM ^
Let’s just say I felt a LOT better about this game before yesterday. PSU looked more capable offensively this week.
November 5th, 2023 at 3:49 PM ^
Correct me if I am wrong, but I think Maryland turned the ball over 4 times vs PSU yesterday.
November 5th, 2023 at 4:04 PM ^
They did, although 3 of the 4 were in the last 9:00 of the game (when it was a 3+ score game).
There were a few weird stats from that game:
- Taulia completed his first 17 passes of the game - but only 3 of them were for double-digit yards. One of those completions was on a 4th-down-and-1: it still did not get the first down.
- Maryland had -49 yards rushing. 6 sacks, but take those out and they were still only 2 yards on 10 rushes.
November 5th, 2023 at 5:29 PM ^
I remember Tagovailoa completing 17 passes in a row to start the game against PSU and coming away with zero points. If that’s JJ, it’s 21 points.
November 5th, 2023 at 3:51 PM ^
One week doesn’t a season make
November 5th, 2023 at 4:16 PM ^
I wonder how our D compares to Maryland’s?
November 5th, 2023 at 4:27 PM ^
I feel completely the opposite, ERdoc. The Maryland score will leave Franklin full of misplaced self-confidence.
November 5th, 2023 at 4:05 PM ^
PSU is beatable but they have a good D-Line, so I don't expect much on the ground. JJ will need to play well, but PSU has a good secondary, too. Our TEs may need to be the difference. I only saw Allar against OSU and wasn't impressed, though I understand he looked good yesterday against the Terps. Hope the boys are ready to play their best game of the season. May need to overcome the officials - it's Michigan v.s. everyone now.
November 5th, 2023 at 4:14 PM ^
Allar against OSU and wasn't impressed, though I understand he looked good yesterday against the Terps
I’m shocked, just shocked at these results
November 5th, 2023 at 5:20 PM ^
He did look good, Maryland caveats apply. He is a different guy when he's not under pressure, and Maryland was not able to get pressure on him very consistently. So he got comfortable and got in a rhythm. At which point he was quite accurate.
Allar at home will not be the same guy we saw at Columbus, where the moment was too big for him. We have to pressure him and speed him up or he will pick us apart.
November 5th, 2023 at 4:12 PM ^
just cruising through all their games so far this year could be real obstacles the team will have to overcome
Yeah, destroying the competition and “struggling” to get to 41-13 wins is a huge detriment to overcome.
All of these returning starters have been in tight games, high pressure games, last year and we got pretty close to the goal.
Just enjoy the ride and stop anticipating and inventing “problems” there are over 100 programs that wish they had our “obstacles”.