PSU Matchup - and early look
There is usually very little content on Sunday for next Saturday's game. However the auto-generated sports-reference.com site made me a little giddy for the PSU game:
PSU Leaders
- Clifford, QB, 85/137, 1030 yards, 9 TD, 2 Int,
- Singleton, RB, 63 att, 463 yds, 5 TD
- Washington, WR, 20 rec, 285 yds, 0 TD
- Dennis-Sutton, DE, 3 sacks, 5 tackles, 3 tfl
- Wheatley, S, 2 int, 34 yds, 0 TD
UM Leaders
- McCarthy, QB, 94/120, 1152 yards, 9 TD, 1 Int
- Corum, RB, 118 att, 735 yds, 11 TD
- Bell, WR, 30 rec, 390 yds, 1 TD
- Morris, DE, 5 sacks, 11 tackles, 7 tfl
- Moore, DB, 2 int, 37 yds, 0 TD
Caveats/Notes
- Clifford and McCarthy show stats through 5 starts (although McCarthy has really only played 4.5 games)
- Even with last weeks penalties, we are still 9th in overall penalties. PSU is 27th
- Our SOS is 98th vs theirs at 71st
- FEI through week 5 has us at #3 net FEI, and PSU at 34th
- Our special teams (through week 5) are #1 vs PSU's at 27th
- And don't get me started on coaching. I'll take a Harbaugh Turtle over a Franklin Fart 8 days a week.
We still have to play the game, but I like our talent, our coaching, and our special teams over PSU.
WE OWN, PENN STATE!!
October 9th, 2022 at 7:15 PM ^
These stats are a bit misleading due to our weak SOS and that we've played one more game, but I still think we ought to win and that the 7 pt spread makes sense.
October 9th, 2022 at 7:18 PM ^
Agree. I implied the 5 vs 6 game discrepancy. 3 of the 5 position comparisons are clear advantages for Michigan (QB, DE, RB), even with the extra game. The other 2 (WR, S) are closer to a tie with the extra game figured in.
October 9th, 2022 at 8:00 PM ^
IDK, man. JJ threw for 300 yards and 3 tds yesterday. Even if you take out the INT, Clifford and him look a lot more even at 5 games each.
Also, our DE's don't look nearly as good without yesterday and CSU. I guess if you gave PSU a similar schedule they likely would have stats close to ours.
That said, I still think we're the better team
October 9th, 2022 at 8:08 PM ^
I hear you, but JJ didn't play full games the first 4 weeks, and little of game 1. Sure, the yards were on Indy, but Indy was not our weakest opponent.
The real difference between Clifford and McCarthy is completion % (62 vs 78).
McCarthy >> Clifford
In a game where the pass rush vs pass defense will be tough for both teams, I'll take the much better QB.
And fully agree. We are the better team. Need to clean up penalties and play disciplined.
October 9th, 2022 at 8:17 PM ^
JJ is also much better at yards per attempt - 9.6 to Clifford's 7.5. In short, our passing game is much more efficient, despite that we haven't completed many deep balls.
October 9th, 2022 at 9:00 PM ^
Why do games matter so much for QB? QB stats are more about attempts. Clifford has 17 more attempts and much lower completion %. Clifford has 2 fewer yards per attempt, same TDs and 1 fewer INTs.
October 9th, 2022 at 8:18 PM ^
James Franklin turns into goo in Ann Arbor. Not sweating this one.
October 9th, 2022 at 8:18 PM ^
JJ played sparingly in the first game. And most of our starters were benched by the second half of the first 3 games. If anything these stats are more impressive to me.
October 9th, 2022 at 9:29 PM ^
Not sure I buy PSU Having incredible schedule
Purdue - Maryland
auburn - iowa
Indiana - Northwestern
dregs aren’t really relevant
October 9th, 2022 at 11:25 PM ^
They beat Northwestern (#98 SP+) at home by only 10??
October 10th, 2022 at 1:20 AM ^
Apparently, it was in wet/rainy conditions.
October 10th, 2022 at 8:19 AM ^
Their SOS is also bolstered by Auburn who I frankly think is not good
October 10th, 2022 at 8:43 AM ^
Auburn is just a really poorly coached SEC team, who gets a bump because they are in the SEC. They are not good, yet people recognize the name and give them a bump.
That being said they will miss a bowl game this year, but will probably upset a top team before the end of the season.
October 9th, 2022 at 7:16 PM ^
I think when you have Michigan's attention you actually get a better game out of them. How many Lewerke type miracles land in Penn State receivers hands? If the answer is one or none we are fine. 3+ lotto tickets and it could get dicey.
Our defense dominates as soon as the other team has passes only as an option. In a back and forth game our defense will be more on its heels. Get an early lead and things should go well.
October 9th, 2022 at 7:26 PM ^
My biggest concern is this is the first running game with a pulse our defense will have faced. If we force them to pass we should win.
October 9th, 2022 at 8:17 PM ^
Maryland 100% had a pulse, if not one of the 2 or 3 best RB/Oline/Qb run threat teams we will play all year. That should have been excellent practice for the PSU game regarding the run game.
October 9th, 2022 at 8:49 PM ^
The classic Michigan fan motto: "if we beat them, they must have sucked."
Your take is correct. Maryland's offense is probably stronger than Penn State's, and we slowed them down more than enough to win. Michigan can handle this game, especially at home and especially with Frames likely to make at least one utter bonehead decision.
October 9th, 2022 at 9:03 PM ^
As soon as Michigan beats a team, that team is trash. Get with the program.
October 9th, 2022 at 9:08 PM ^
Agreed. MD's production from Hemby & Littleton is pretty similar to Singleton & Allen. I think MD's O is better overall as well. PSU will be a test. Just not UM's first.
October 9th, 2022 at 9:42 PM ^
Penn st and Maryland are a push on offense…what has my attention is Penn St had a much better and more physical D than Maryland. Can’t come out vanilla.
October 9th, 2022 at 10:38 PM ^
They are not a push on offense. PSU has an FEI ranking of 34 on offense. Maryland wasn’t as high as I thought it would be, but it’s still 22. Maryland is superior in terms of sophistication and in terms of QB play. Similar RB’s and Maryland probably has more playmakers at WR. I would take their offense over PSU any day of the week.
The significant difference comes on defense. PSU is 4 and Maryland 45. Maryland was able to stymie our passing game for stretches, which is troubling in retrospect, but we did have a number of deep shots that were open and just missed. I presume we will have a wider playbook against PSU, so hopefully that puts more pressure on them than we did Maryland.
Maryland also had a stellar kicker and good special teams. PSU kickers have had issues, to say the least.
I think PSU is a better overall team than Maryland, but I’m hoping our game plan and JJ’s continued ascension and maturity lead to a similar result. And I’m hoping that Frames Janklin does his thing, as he is often prone to do.
October 9th, 2022 at 9:40 PM ^
Their Oline is boo boo boo.
October 9th, 2022 at 10:40 PM ^
Yea im totally confused...
Maryland rb was averaging 10 ypc going into our game.
Auburn is total dogshit this year. Penn states schedule is less than impressive as anybody.
Central gave them a game the 1st half and they are 1-5, so did NW who is also 1-5
October 10th, 2022 at 2:54 PM ^
I agree Auburn sucks, but I have to wonder if Penn State hasn’t been practicing for Michigan for the last 3 weeks (about to be 4) with the schedule playing out in consecutive weeks as “CMU, Northwestern, Bye, Michigan”
October 9th, 2022 at 7:16 PM ^
I’m so pumped for this game. Huge two games here and you just have to find a way to beat these next two teams and you have a more than real shot of going 11-0.
I’m betting we see a really sharp team like we saw for most of the Iowa game against psu and I just want them out for blood against msu lol.
October 9th, 2022 at 7:42 PM ^
This is a playoff game. The winner carries on with a chance at the top 4. The loser looks for a good Bowl.
October 9th, 2022 at 9:05 PM ^
Wut? Not true. If we lose but win rest of the games, we will have a great shot at being in the playoff. Same goes for PSU unless we go undefeated and they lose to us.
October 9th, 2022 at 9:23 PM ^
If we lose to PSU at home, we are not beating OSU in Cbus. That's the logic anyway, and it's hard to argue it.
October 9th, 2022 at 10:45 PM ^
Not really true. As we saw last year, one Big Ten loss doesn’t knock you out.
Obviously, the fact that you can’t win this likely lowers the chances you’ll be able to beat OSU later, but from a scheduling standpoint either team can overcome a loss by winning the OSU matchup, because it’s highly unlikely they lose 2 which would open up the head to head tie breaker.
We would still feel terrible (like we did last year), but our goals would still be in front of us.
oops - didn’t notice the similar comment above. Apologies.
October 9th, 2022 at 10:00 PM ^
Beat Penn State by whatever, then curb stomp sparty so bad that no couches survive that weekend.
October 9th, 2022 at 7:26 PM ^
I'm not sure whether James Franklin is worst decent coach I've ever seen in best shitty coach.
October 9th, 2022 at 7:28 PM ^
Franklin is the worst decent coach. Tucker is the best shitty coach.
October 9th, 2022 at 8:15 PM ^
The best shitty coach comes with the title "Horseshit coach" which pays quite well I'm told.
October 9th, 2022 at 7:40 PM ^
I was annoyed that it was about Franklin's 4th year at PSU before he mentioned that maybe the other team had something to do with the PSU loss. It was always injuries, bad breaks and referees that beat his team. He is a terrific salesman.
October 9th, 2022 at 7:29 PM ^
Just read this: Penn State is 2-of-5 on field goals longer than 29 yards AND has failed to convert a pair of extra points this season.
That could be a huge differentiator in this game, forcing 4th downs in plus field position.
October 9th, 2022 at 7:51 PM ^
Franklin always seems to have problems with kicking
October 9th, 2022 at 8:10 PM ^
Username checks out
October 9th, 2022 at 9:34 PM ^
Good to know, and good find!
Where do you reside down in the Lonestar state, if you don't mind me asking?
I'm down in Houston, and it never fails I get a lot of "Go Blue(s)!" down here, especially on the day we play OSU. Texans just seem to really, REALLY dislike the Bucks.
October 9th, 2022 at 9:55 PM ^
I live in the Texas hill country, north of San Antonio, SW of Austin, near Canyon Lake. Born and raised in south Detroit (Wyandotte actually). I see UM gear regularly, and hear the Go Blue a lot (or Go Big Blue from those who think they know UM sports).
October 10th, 2022 at 4:26 AM ^
Just talked Michigan football with a fan in Marvao Portugal. We are everywhere. True global reach.
And no, he did not say Go Big Blue.
October 9th, 2022 at 10:05 PM ^
They are not aLone in their hatred of Ohio.
October 9th, 2022 at 7:32 PM ^
Michigan has the 7th ranked rush defense.
Penn State is 5th ranked rush defense. (with one less game)
Michigan has the 20th ranked rush offense
Penn State is 33rd ranked rush offense.
Both teams are going to make the other beat them throwing.
PSU - 59th Ranked passing offense.
Michigan 69th Ranked passing offense.
Michigan - Passing yards given up, 11th ranked
PSU - Passing yards given up, 102nd ranked
I like Michigan's chances.
October 9th, 2022 at 7:47 PM ^
If Michigan will actually throw the ball instead of running into a full line of scrimmage over and over
October 9th, 2022 at 9:11 PM ^
Say it louder for the Michigan OCs in the back.
October 9th, 2022 at 9:34 PM ^
They haven't done that all year so seems promising.
October 9th, 2022 at 8:24 PM ^
Our passing offense rating...
October 9th, 2022 at 9:21 PM ^
And this is why traditional stats are nearly worthless in football.
Michigan does not have the 69th-best passing offense by any factors which are relevant, such as yards-per-dropback. You only get to 69th by looking at counting stats. Michigan hasn’t thrown for a bunch of yards, but when they do throw, the passing game is quite good.
You can take your pick of advanced stats. A quick Google search for “ncaa advanced passing stats” leads me here: https://www.cfb-graphs.com . They have Michigan has the #2 team in the country, with the #11 passing offense in terms of expected points added per pass. PSU is at #50.
Also, you’re greatly overranking their rushing attack just because they run a lot of running plays. In terms of EPA, they’re #91.
None of the advanced stats suggest that PSU’s offense is any good, which matches both (a) what I’ve seen and (b) what I expected from Frames Janklin. Now, their defense is elite, and if this game were at night, in Happy Valley, I’d be nervous.
Michigan is a substantially better team than PSU. That doesn’t guarantee victory, of course, but there’s a reason that the computer models and Vegas are all in agreement; Michigan has a 70%+ chance to win Saturday.
October 11th, 2022 at 5:06 PM ^
If you have those numbers on your side and you pass 20 times in a huge game and lose. Well the loss is on you as a coach. Lets hope that doesnt happen because those are striking numbers and just begging for you to put it up more. I bet a more dynamic passing game would lead to more explosive runs as well.
October 9th, 2022 at 7:34 PM ^
We are the better team. We are home. They are coached by James Franklin. I like our odds.
I do think Penn States rushing game and defense provide a challenge. We will need our best execution and game plan.
October 9th, 2022 at 7:37 PM ^
Clean up the issues that plagued the team yesterday and Michigan will have Frankling doodling again
