Your Hawtest Takes: Halfway through B1G, how are we matching up with OSU?
I think we're in good shape for a competitive war. We have better running backs, OL. They have more experienced QB, a pinpoint passer with amazing touch, who isn't mobile and doesn't threaten with his legs, in a scheme built perfectly to his talents. He also drives a Bentley. We have a younger QB who is hopefully on a steeper learning curve with 4 games left, who is a playmaker and whose legs are a tremendous threat, but who is still making a few boneheaded schoolyard gaffs when stressed, but is really quite poised. Our D matches up well, strong against the run, decent pressure from many different sources, good DB's, and capable of many amorphous looks. DL depth that we haven't had in years. Not sure about OSU's D given the caliber of offenses they've faced. But Knowles has a good record and they are certainly as talented as UM. Hard to know if they're physically up to stopping our run game for 60 minutes if the game is nasty and tight. If this game is close late, I'd feel great (in theory) at us wearing them down. Smells of a high-scoring game where both offenses bring out all their weapons and specials. I feel our QB run game compensates for a lesser passing game than OSU, brings us 3 dimensions of attack, where they really only have two. At the Shoe is reason enough for pessimism given 2016. If Columbus cops show up with sniffing bomb dogs again, Jimmy needs to be ready to tell them to get a warrant or GTFU. One thing last year (and Harbaugh in general) should teach everyone, is that comparing scores for like opponents is meaningless. Harbaugh is prone to slogging wins. But, in big games, no one knows how to win a slog like Harbaugh.
October 22nd, 2022 at 5:30 PM ^
Better than expected.
Yet Ohio State remains a death machine.
October 22nd, 2022 at 5:55 PM ^
If the coaches call an aggressive game, and JJ has his best game of the season, we will be a death machine as well.
IOW, we can compete in the Shoe, and if we continue to improve, we will have a shot at winning.
But we will need to score 40+ again.
October 22nd, 2022 at 7:30 PM ^
They are soft. They still get bullied here and there by average d-lines. They are still an average run team. Ryan Day built the best version of Texas Tech we have ever seen.
Not buying their new "toughness" narrative. Styles make fights. I like our chances.
If it's windy, rainy, or snowy, I really like our chances.
October 22nd, 2022 at 10:27 PM ^
Precisely. OSU is soft. UM's gonna put up at least 300 on the ground vs OSU, and keep the ball for 40 minutes. What worked last year, will work this year because OSU has done nothing to think otherwise. Hell, UM's O-line and D-line are even better this year. Who thought we could have written that 6 months ago?
The felons who inhabit Columbus HAVE NO IDEA the freight-train heading their way. Either get mowed down, or get out of the way. There is no 3rd option for OSU.
#GoBlue
October 22nd, 2022 at 8:21 PM ^
My feeling after 7 games is UM won't hold them to 27 this year -
But also that they won't hold UM to 42 either!
Anxiously looking forward to it!
October 23rd, 2022 at 7:52 AM ^
This is the first time since '03 that a team has scored more than 45 or more points in their first 6 games in the Big Ten, so yeah it seems improbable that we would hold them to less than 27 points. It will be winter though; if the weather is bad again we're going to have another game like last year and I feel that favors us because we're the tougher team. If the D-line can press Stroud and the Offense takes time off the clock and runs that fine offense we have, there will be much wailing and gnashing of teeth in Columbus on the afternoon of November 26.
October 24th, 2022 at 2:07 AM ^
If so, then this is the first time a B1G team has set a 6 game scoring streak record in 5 games. AFAIK.
But yes, if we turn out to be a damn good team, we'll still have our work cut out to slow OSU's offense down.
October 22nd, 2022 at 8:25 PM ^
I think Stroud is massively overrated.
October 22nd, 2022 at 8:54 PM ^
I agree. Stroud is overrated and spooked easily by a pass rush in his face.
Their offensive system is amazing though, specifically against lesser talent as their receivers are incredible. I'm very interested to see them next week against a really good PSU secondary.
Still think their O-line and D-line are suspect (good, not elite) and that's where we can win the game again.
October 22nd, 2022 at 8:48 PM ^
Beat MSU.
October 22nd, 2022 at 5:30 PM ^
Paragraphs.
So few paragraphs.
October 22nd, 2022 at 5:32 PM ^
I love you!
October 22nd, 2022 at 5:58 PM ^
Have you ever heard of stream of consciousness?
October 22nd, 2022 at 6:02 PM ^
Good for your own diary and shit, but this is a discussion forum
October 22nd, 2022 at 6:17 PM ^
Yes. But this is a mighty river
October 22nd, 2022 at 7:59 PM ^
A wandering one
October 22nd, 2022 at 9:16 PM ^
Yes but then we saw it, saw the game in a way that others had only hoped to see but then and only then did it happen. The game within a game and MORE, much, much more.
The stream of conciseness was about us, on us, WAS US and then it was gone.
October 22nd, 2022 at 9:45 PM ^
The stream of conciseness was teeny weeny.
October 23rd, 2022 at 1:34 AM ^
My stream is not as good as it used to be. My prostrate is to blame
October 22nd, 2022 at 5:58 PM ^
Yeah, I got burned out 1/3 of the way through.
October 22nd, 2022 at 6:34 PM ^
Maybe if I didn't have this stye in my eye, I would have stuck it out...
October 22nd, 2022 at 5:32 PM ^
I’ll say I’m a heck of a lot more confident in our chances at 7-0 this year than I was at 7-0 last year
October 22nd, 2022 at 5:37 PM ^
tl;dr, mix in a few paragraphs next time please.
October 22nd, 2022 at 5:37 PM ^
Comrade, I would like to subscribe to your newsletter.
October 22nd, 2022 at 5:38 PM ^
The OSU defense appears to be better but I still don't know how they are going to hold up against a high powered offense. What little Iowa did on offense today wasn't because of anything OSU did.
October 22nd, 2022 at 6:09 PM ^
The Iowa offense was so bad today, I legit think it would have been closer if they simply punted on 1st down every drive. They gifted the OSU defense so many free turnovers, I can't make any judgement about that defense because if they just stood still at the snap, the ball inevitably would end up in their hands.
October 23rd, 2022 at 9:56 AM ^
OSU literally aint played no one Pawwwlllll. Like what capable offense or defense have they played? The Wisconsin and Iowa defenses I guess but no one capable on offense
October 22nd, 2022 at 5:39 PM ^
I think it'll be a complete toss up. A bad TO from JJ could lose us the game. But I think JJ and this team overall are gamers, and that they will be the hungrier team going into that game.
I get nervous with it in Columbus and the bias the refs give OSU. They're good for a free couple PI calls a game down there against us.
I love that Stroud can't run.
I feel that we are going to win a huge game, and they're going to run Ryan Day out of town after losing to us twice and missing playoffs again because of it.
October 22nd, 2022 at 5:39 PM ^
We beat Ohio State last year because we could pressure Stroud every play and get multiple sacks, and because H2 could always get 2-3 extra yards and keep drives going.
We have not replaced that . . . yet. We may or may not get there.
There are other ways to beat Ohio State as well. It is all TBD.
OSU looked good against Iowa, better than we did. Some of that is due to our own (purposeful) turtling. Different styles.
We will know a little bit more after OSU plays Penn State next week.
October 22nd, 2022 at 5:41 PM ^
Michigan does have more sacks in 2022 than 2021 but I think that they are more inconsistent.
October 22nd, 2022 at 6:00 PM ^
We had 10 sacks in the first two weeks, I think our last couple of games is more indicative of our real pass rush.
we don’t have “ sack on demand “like huch or ojabo.
I fear we might get stonewalled for long stretches against “near peer” competition.
October 22nd, 2022 at 7:06 PM ^
OSU gained 360 yds of offense at home and we gained 327 in Iowa City. They benefited from 5 turnovers and we benefited from zero.
We have a different group on offense which will call for a different strategy, just like our defense. When you look at our offensive talent vs last year, including Hassan Haskins, I'm not sure how you could reasonably conclude that we are not on par with last year. Our run game is more explosive and Corum seems to bring the same kind of YAC that Haskins did. Our defense doesn't have the same players as last year so it calls for a different gameplan but it sure seems that the top to bottom talent is pretty darn close to what it was last year.
October 22nd, 2022 at 7:16 PM ^
The offense feels significantly better to me. I think it's 3 things. JJ's legs. JJ's arm strength. Overall more experienced receivers with Ronnie Bell back. JJ's ability to throw the ball to much more distant corners of the field and his ability to run seem to stretch out defenses in ways that Cade's various skills simply couldn't. As for the defense, it's hard to say. I have to feel like with the top 3 players drafted in the first 2 rounds, and what would have possibly been 3 first rounders, that it's got to have a lower ceiling when push comes to shove in a huge game against super-talented foe. However, I think the DT position is better and Mikey S, has been a huge surprise. I think the secondary might actually be better.
October 22nd, 2022 at 7:43 PM ^
Yes, except Harbaugh refuses to use any of those resources on offense. He plays a dink and dunk passing game that doesn't use the full talent of either our receivers or our QB, and he won't run an offense where McCarthy is a consistent threat to run that the defense always has to account for. And it's very clear now that Harbaugh will never use tempo as a weapon.
October 22nd, 2022 at 8:28 PM ^
Well this one definitely qualifies as an answer to the OP's original question
October 22nd, 2022 at 9:14 PM ^
19-2 in the last 21 but he surely could be more entertaining in his wins.
/s
October 22nd, 2022 at 11:06 PM ^
Against the PSU secondary a dink and dunk strategy makes sense. JJ is still trying to get his touch back since off season shoulder surgery and he's looked off on the earlier deep balls. Next week should tell us a lot about the passing game facing a decent run D and a week pass D.
October 23rd, 2022 at 8:28 AM ^
Kind of like the Nfl? I’m not the biggest fan of our offense at the college level, but , Harbaughs built NFL style lines and has the playing a style that makes the other team wave the white flag. Add in Minters multiple ravens style looks and you have a bunch of guys who will transition on Sundays better than any OSU player ever would.
October 22nd, 2022 at 8:11 PM ^
I agree with you, evenyoubrutus. If OSU played this game on the road the game would've looked a lot more like ours and vice-versa if Iowa had traveled to Ann Arbor. I hope OSU reads its press clippings b/c that D is not all that.
October 22nd, 2022 at 7:22 PM ^
OSU looked better than Mich against Iowa because it was at the Shoe. Had the game been at Kinnick, the score might have been similar with OSU still winning. Something like 3TD+4FG for 33 pts to Iowa with 1TD (defense) and 1FG for 10.
October 23rd, 2022 at 9:26 AM ^
I'm sure to some degree this is true, but I also think it's hard to really evaluate in any kind of apples-to-apples context because Iowa's offense was so incredibly terrible today. I thought Iowa's defense actually played better today against OSU than they did against us... On the other hand, in my 25+ years watching B1G football, I'm not sure I've observed a worse offensive performance or offensive team in general that what Iowa put out there today and really all season. They were awful against us, and even somehow worse against Ohio State.
I think the score ultimately ended up what it was because the offense was so atrocious it may have been easier on the defense to just punt on first downs rather than attempt to move the ball. You do that against an elite offense, and eventually the scoreboard looks ugly even with a very strong defensive effort.
October 22nd, 2022 at 7:32 PM ^
I wouldn’t say OSU looked better against Iowa than us. They had about 140 total yards first half. If not for Petras it would’ve been a little closer. I knew people would see the final score and think they played better. After watching the full game I feel much better about our chances. Each of the turnovers were gifts that OSU didn’t even have to make a play. I believe from a physical standpoint we will dominate them again. Stroud will wilt under the pressure. And there will be lots of it. I’m in the minority probably but I believe we will win convincingly. After seeing the reran king of classes I feel like we are pretty close in talent. Closer than we have been in a while.
October 23rd, 2022 at 12:09 AM ^
It’s okay to admit that OSU looked better against Iowa than we did. Saying otherwise makes it sound like you can’t be objective. Against us, Iowa had the ball inside our ten yard line threatening to make it a six point game with less than five minutes to go. It’s not like OSU scored a bunch of touchdowns in the 4th and pulled away late. They were up 30 at the end of the third quarter.
OSU looking better against an opponent doesn’t mean anything and it certainly doesn’t make them the better team. We can definitely beat OSU, but our guys will need to play a complete game. We can’t have the mistakes and problems like we had in the first half of the last couple of games. OSU is a much better version of Maryland and we struggled with them.
October 23rd, 2022 at 5:32 AM ^
Iowa looked worse against them than they did against us if that is even possible, especially in the first half. They kept gifting OSU in their own side of the field, but OSU kept doing nothing. And then there was pick six, which is random.
Michigan played a different game plan than Iowa. It was a "do not shoot yourself in the foot" plan. OSU tried to score every chance they got, which they got a lot of chances.
First half, I do not think OSU looked any better. Second half, the QB change further helped OSU and they looked better on the scoreboard.
October 23rd, 2022 at 11:23 AM ^
It's also OK to admit that OSU did not look better against Iowa than us. Because they didn't.
October 22nd, 2022 at 10:00 PM ^
Corum just gets the extra 50 yards…😉
October 22nd, 2022 at 5:40 PM ^
Great post and thoughts btw! Good analysis
October 22nd, 2022 at 5:50 PM ^
31-29 Michigan wins in the Shoe.
October 22nd, 2022 at 6:16 PM ^
I like where your head's at, but I see it more as a 42-27 win for the good guys.