Why the MBB players who declared might not actually be gone

Submitted by jethro34 on April 9th, 2019 at 4:15 PM

If you didn't read it elsewhere, the new rules suggest that every player evenly remotely interested in the NBA SHOULD declare and SHOULD hire an agent. They also SHOULD participate in the combine.

If they're good enough to be drafted, they'll be drafted and get paid. If, however, they go undrafted, they can return to school and not lose any eligibility. 

So currently none of the three are projected to be drafted in the first round. This new rule may have tons of fringe players declaring. So the biggest threat is NBA teams using 2nd round picks on guys with potential. I imagine at least one of the three will make it through the full draft and not be drafted yet. I suppose they could still sign as a FA or choose to play overseas, but unless you really hate school, it would seem like they would then return.

What I don't know is if teams still have to honor that scholarship. It will probably get pretty dicey as undecided HS seniors have to make choices before that, and some scholarship situations will be tenuous.

footballguy

April 9th, 2019 at 4:18 PM ^

Matthews and Iggy are gone. Matthews graduated and has nothing left to gain in college. Iggy will 100% be drafted. He is a top 60 prospect. 

Poole may be back. But his situation is tricky and multifactorial.

WolvinLA2

April 9th, 2019 at 9:50 PM ^

I'm not trying to be argumentative, but top 60 according to whom?  I usually refer to NBAdraft.net (now that draft express is gone) and he hasn't been on their top 60 in months and more and more international guys keep creeping in.  I'm curious where you're getting this info.

StephenRKass

April 9th, 2019 at 4:18 PM ^

I've been thinking the same thing, and your analysis seems pretty good. All of it is a hot mess. If a team accepts transfers or commitments, they might not have room left for a player to return. It will be very interesting to see how all of this works out.

Guy Fawkes

April 9th, 2019 at 4:19 PM ^

Could be wrong here but players cannot go through the NBA draft and then return to school if undrafted. There is still a hard deadline in which they must decide, back to college or turn pro. 

EDIT: I'm wrong, knew google was my friend. Damn you memory!

bronxblue

April 9th, 2019 at 4:25 PM ^

Matthews is definitely gone.  My guess is that if both Poole and Iggy hear back that they aren't going to be drafted, at least one will come back.  

bronxblue

April 9th, 2019 at 4:55 PM ^

Maybe in the second round, but as it stands it looks like he's a latter-round selection.  I don't blame him for leaving, but a lot of that late first-round buzz seems to have dissipated.  Most recent draft boards I've seen have him either an FA or sneaking in at the bottom of the second round.  That might change based on him measuring at combines and he shows in workouts, but it's not a given.

MH20

April 9th, 2019 at 4:38 PM ^

FYI, the NBA draft combine is invite only so it's not like anyone can just sign up for it. In fact, only a small portion of the people who declare for the draft are actually invited. You can be invited to the combine, stay in the draft, go undrafted, and return to school, but the amount of hoops you would need to jump through in order to maintain your amateur status are numerous and I find it highly unlikely that someone would end up doing this.

MichiganStan

April 9th, 2019 at 4:40 PM ^

Iggy will be drafted. IMO late 1st/early 2nd

Matthews most likely wont be drafted but I think he already knows this and is prepared to go to the G League or overseas

Poole shouldn't be drafted but you never know. He has an NBA style to his game

Iggy and Matthews leaving makes sense. Poole thinking he is ready for the NBA is absurd and whoever is telling him he's ready needs to get a dose of reality. Poole isn't ready skill wise and more importantly he isn't ready IQ wise. His basketball IQ is unusually low for a Beilein player and I think itd be best for him to stay another year and get some more college coaching

MichiganStan

April 9th, 2019 at 4:46 PM ^

He has swag to his game like NBA players do. Not many players in college play with as much swag and style as Poole. How he finishes at the rim and his shooting stroke all scream future NBA player

He just has IT (Don't you dare ask me what IT is)

bronxblue

April 9th, 2019 at 5:01 PM ^

Poole has a true shooting percentage of 57%, a middling assist-to-TO ratio, and is, at best, a meh defender.  He shot 33% from 3 in conference this year (by comparison, Iggy shot 43%).  Maybe he's a good finisher around the rim, but he doesn't draw a ton of fouls (under 3 per 40) and he isn't an imposing figure.

I like Poole and think he has an NBA future; I'd like him a lot more a year from now when he's ironed out the rough spots in his game.  

taistreetsmyhero

April 9th, 2019 at 6:24 PM ^

He has a willingness to create his own shot in isolation. He has shown flashes of being able to take people off the dribble, cross people over, shoot the step back jumper, shoot off the dribble, etc.

Now, he was horribly inefficient at doing all of those things this season. But he has the instinct to do these things, which, combined with the flashes when he executed them briefly throughout the season, may convince someone that he has the potential to put it together at the next level.

michymich

April 9th, 2019 at 7:27 PM ^

NBA style. The ability to hit long shots and step back and fall away. Smooth. More style than substance or another way of putting it...not as consistent as possibly a less athletic person.

 

Bernard King was more consistent and efficient. Dominique Wilkins was more flash and spectacular although quite the player too.

LSAClassOf2000

April 9th, 2019 at 4:58 PM ^

I would think Matthews and Brazdeikis are definitely gone. Poole stands a chance of coming back pending evaluation, I would think. I mean, I get the nuance that "going" doesn't always mean "gone" depending on certain factors (which reminds me - TITLES, folks), but I think there are definitely some departures here. 

BoHarb

April 9th, 2019 at 7:10 PM ^

Disagree. In close games, Iggy was making the tough 3, taking it to the rim, and making free throws.  Watched him single handedly keep us in games, which I always thought would be teske's mantle this year. Iggy top scorer w 3 shooting capabilities, nose for the dunk, and makes his free throws? Yeah I'd say hes ready. Him coming back would be miles bridges-ish

WolvinLA2

April 9th, 2019 at 9:56 PM ^

Iggy is very hot and cold as a shooter, can't pass worth a shit, isn't a great defender and doesn't have great athleticism.  He's a got a great frame/build but a lot of other guys can get that after a couple years.  I don't see any NBA team getting excited about him.  He could work on his game and be a first round pick next year.  No way he is this year.  It's dumb for him to leave now.

rice4114

April 9th, 2019 at 6:00 PM ^

Does he have his degree? If not wouldn't a sure fire over seas or CBA career be even better with a UM degree in hand? I'm not sure I would not make that a top priority if most say I'm outside the top 50 prospects for this years draft.

MichiganStan

April 9th, 2019 at 5:06 PM ^

Read an article about Iggy, poole, and Matthews declaring

ESPN has Iggy pegged #48 in their top 100 prospects list. Poole is #68. Matthews is #69

Interesting tidbit: These agents they hire can pay for meals and housing and they can still retain eligibility to return

uminks

April 9th, 2019 at 5:07 PM ^

Brazdeikis will probably get drafted during the 3rd round but if he came back and improved his shooting and ball handling skills he would be a for sure first round pick next year.

fishgoblue1

April 9th, 2019 at 5:49 PM ^

I will put the percentage of them returning at 0%.  These guys know they can make a little money in the G league, work on their game with NBA coaches and no college practice time restrictions.  It makes sense to leave early if you have no desire to graduate.

BursleysFinest

April 9th, 2019 at 6:15 PM ^

NO. If they go undrafted and go to the G league they're making a minimum of ~100,000/yr.  Not bad.  BUT

  If Poole comes back, works on the weak points of an already good game, he's looking at a contract of at least 1 million/yr.  Even if, worst case, he hates college, there is definitely a reason for him to come back. 

jdemille9

April 10th, 2019 at 9:47 AM ^

They can make six figures, but most aren't. Base salary isn't much ($35k for the season) bonuses are available for playoffs and high performers and of course two-way players can make a lot more. But according to the G-League site most of these guys aren't getting called up (60 got called up last year, out of roughly 300 total players, so only 20%).

It seems like that unless they are getting called up or are all-league type players these guys aren't making six figures, which is most of the league.. just my take given the info.

https://gleague.nba.com/news/nba-g-league-announces-player-salaries-2018-2019-season/