Who's most likely to pull off an upset in today's BTT action?

Submitted by Moleskyn on

Here are today's Big Ten Tourney matchups (all times EST):

(1)MSU vs. (8)Iowa - 12:00

(4)Wisconsin vs. (5)Indiana - 2:00

(2)UM vs. (10)Minnesota - 6:30

(3)OSU vs. (6)Purdue - 8:55

Here's an overview of how the regular season matchups went:

MSU crushed Iowa in the regular season (95-61) at home, but Iowa has shown they can be really tough.

Indiana and Wisconsin played each other once in the regular season, with Wisconsin winning 57-50 at home. This game is the obvious choice for most likely "upset" since both teams are pretty evenly matched. It'd hardly be an upset if Indiana wins, though.

Michigan beat Minnesota at home (61-56) in the regular season. Minnesota can be a tough team.

OSU and Purdue played once in the regular season, and Purdue gave OSU fits in Columbus, though the Buckeyes won 87-84.

So, which team do you think is most likely to pull off an upset?

Aside from Indiana (which, as I said, wouldn't really be an upset if they win), I think Purdue has the best chance to do it. They played OSU tough earlier in the year, they've got a go-to guy in Robbie Hummel, and they're coming off a good win over Nebraska last night.

TheTruth41

March 9th, 2012 at 11:36 AM ^

I hated how Michigan was so soft with the switching on defense. It really allowed Purdue to get the mismatches they wanted on offense. I would have thought a Michigan zone could have done well as Purdue's pointguard is like 4'-11" and would have trouble with the over the top passes. He could be effective penetrating but I'd give them that over easy man to man switching. I absolutely hated our defense against Purdue. That said I'd take them again as I'm sure we would adjust appropriately the next time around.

BiSB

March 9th, 2012 at 10:11 AM ^

  1. IU over Wisky: IU playing well, Bo Ryan sucks. I'd actually be more surprised if Wisconsin won.
  2. Purdue over Ohio: Purdue playing well, Ohio is soft
  3. Iowa over Sparty: Gatens can get hot, State w/o Dawson. Don't hold your breath though.
  4. Minnesota over Michigan: Michigan relies on shooting, and is therefore succeptible to cold streaks, and Minnesota is... nope, I've got nothing. Minnesota is bad.

Bosch

March 9th, 2012 at 11:22 AM ^

Their record might convince you otherwise with a recent 6 game losing streak but 5 of those games were to the B1G's top 5 and the 6th was at Northwestern.  They had Sparty on the ropes a couple of weeks ago and probably should have won.  Not to mention Michigan only beat them by 5 in Ann Arbor.

I'm happy that we're facing the Gophers instead of Northwestern, but no one should be looking past them.

BiSB

March 9th, 2012 at 11:42 AM ^

But I'd say they are the least likely of the four lower seeds to win. You could make an argument for iowa against State, but with Dawson out I'd say the odds of State falling are SLIGHTLY greater (though neither is anywhere near as likely as an Indiana or Purdue win).

JHendo

March 9th, 2012 at 11:47 AM ^

Technically, you're absolutely correct.  A grade 1 sprain is in fact a microtear.  However, I've yet to see an injury report where grades are used.  I've always seen it as sprain, partial tear or torn ACL.  Then I again, I don't normally go out looking for injury reports. 

If it is in fact an acl tear, it would be a strategic move by Indiana to equivocate and just classify this as a sprain until the bracket seedings come out.

Edit: It seems I have a stalker who's immediately marking every single post I've made today as overrated.  To whoever you, thank you for the attention, it makes me feel special.  If it's just a coincidence that every single one of my posts as been marked overrated minutes after I've created it, I apologize to all for the seemingly crappy comments I've apparently made today.

JHendo

March 9th, 2012 at 10:18 AM ^

I think today we'll get an idea of it how deep and talented MSU's bench really is with Branden Dawson being out.  Depending on that, Iowa may have a shot.

However, realistically, I think Purdue is more likely to pull the upset.  But as odd as it sounds, at this point, if U of M can beat the Gophers, I'd rather go up against Ohio as it seems Purdue may have our number after doing what no other team could do to us in A2 this year.

Edit: Like many, I don't think IU over Wisconsin counts as an upset.

mGrowOld

March 9th, 2012 at 10:19 AM ^

If i get a choice of rematches I'd prefer the Boilermakers thank you very much.  We were 1-1 against both teams and OSU is WAY better than Purdue IMO.  Purdue simply caught us on a bad night (parental jitters perhaps) and it showed.  

But first....some Gopher stew.

g_reaper3

March 9th, 2012 at 10:26 AM ^

While either way isnt really an upset, I think Indiana is the one that could be upset from a technical standpoint. 

Of the 3 games with more of a mismatch, I think in order of likelihood of being upset: Ohio, Michigan, State.

MGoChippewa

March 9th, 2012 at 10:44 AM ^

Along with their poor shooting, Trey Burke had his best game (statistically) of the season to save our butts. 27 points on 8-11 shooting. I'm confident in our chances today, but I agree, Minnesota certainly shouldn't be looked past.

ClearEyesFullHart

March 9th, 2012 at 10:53 AM ^

All I know is, that moegocontest guy better not show his face today.  It would take some nerve after blatantly failing to produce a Big Ten Champions hat.  He has failed as my primary supplier of casualwear and as a human being.  In terms of redemption, I can only suggest Seppuku .  Lifetime boycott, I may even return some items I haven't worn.

MGlobules

March 9th, 2012 at 12:01 PM ^

women and stuff? Like I said, you are a stud. 

My eight-year-old hasn't gone to sleep before 10 pm since she stopped taking naps at three years. Our friends talk about what they get up to after they put the kids to sleep and we gnash our teeth. 

In reply to by ClearEyesFullHart

MGlobules

March 9th, 2012 at 1:55 PM ^

we were late in getting to the kid thing, and I always insisted one could lead a full, rich life without it, but my daughter has enriched my life no end. 

bronxblue

March 9th, 2012 at 10:55 AM ^

The biggest upset would by Iowa, but I think Purdue has the best chance.  I am also fearful of Minny because of their size; if NW had won, they would have felt they were in the tourney and maybe played with a little letdown.

bacon1431

March 9th, 2012 at 10:56 AM ^

I wouldn't be surprised if any of the upsets occur. Iowa has been playing well of late, Purdue is a decent team, Indiana and Wisconsin is a coin flip, and we've only seen Minnesota once so they could catch us off guard.

MGlobules

March 9th, 2012 at 10:56 AM ^

my curiousity. OSU is a fragile bunch of egos held together by the world's ugliest coach, and Purdue is playing--and playing well right now--to extend Hummel's career.

MSU is a pretty one-dimensional team, too; they could be ripe fir the loss without Dawson.

 

Tuebor

March 9th, 2012 at 10:59 AM ^

It seems that all these games are the 2nd time this season that these two teams have played. 

If so I give the nod to the team that lost in the first game. 

VermontMichiganFan

March 9th, 2012 at 11:11 AM ^

I'd rather have no upsets.  I think it's best for tournament preparation and seeding if we play OSU and MSU- although playing Indiana/Wisconsin instead of MSU wouldn't be too bad- but if we win today it'd be best to play OSU instead of Purdue IMO.

RickH

March 9th, 2012 at 12:49 PM ^

I predicted yesterday night, before the Purdue/Nebraska game, that Purdue would beat Ohio State.  They're looking pretty damn good right now.