Where did Michigan finish in the final computer ratings?

Submitted by oriental andrew on January 9th, 2024 at 5:48 PM

We all know the AP poll has Michigan as the unanimous #1 team in all the land after last night (man, that still feels good to write). 

But what about the other computer ratings? 

https://masseyratings.com/ranks

Massey Composite lists 53 different ranking systems. CFP Participants in bold. 

  1. 47 of the 53 ratings have Michigan ranked #1 and 6 have them ranked #2 for an average ranking of 1.11. 
  2. UGA pulls in at #2 overall with a worst of #8, best of #1, and an average of 2.91. 
  3. Washington is #3 with a worst of #13, a best of #1, and average of 4.72. 
  4. Oregon is #4 with a worst of #10, a best of #1, and average of 5.13. 
  5. Texas is #5 with a worst of #10, best of #3, and average of 5.40. 
  6. Alabama is #6 with worst of #10, best of #3, and average of 5.45.
  7. ohio state is #7 with a worst of #11, best of #2, and average of 6.47. 
  8. FSU, PSU, and Missouri round out the top 10. 

Also of interest is the FPI on the ESPN website. Michigan rates as #1 in Strength of Record, Defensive Efficiency, and Overall Efficiency, and sports the #3 rating for Offensive Efficiency and #7 for Strength of Schedule (weak schedule what?).

Michigan beat 4 of the top 10. 

FPI Scores are a little surprising with the CFP participants at 1, 6, 7, and 12 (!)

  1. Michigan - 28.4
  2. Georgia - 26.7
  3. ohio state - 26.4
  4. Oregon - 25.9
  5. Penn State - 24.6 (tied with Alabama)
  6. Alabama - 24.6 (tied with PSU)
  7. Texas - 22.4
  8. Notre Dame - 22.1
  9. Oklahoma - 20.7
  10. LSU - 19.8
  11. Kansas State - 18.5
  12. Washington - 17.3

They love UW's SOS and SOR, but their #30 defensive efficiency really drags them down. Michigan beat 4 of the top 6 and 5 of the top 12. 

The gap between Michigan and UGA (1.7 points) is almost as big as the gap between 2 Georgia and 5 Penn State/Alabama (2.1). 

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Jonesy

January 9th, 2024 at 5:51 PM ^

All these rankings are messed up by opt outs. All non cfp bowls should be excluded. Yeah, I've said this before, I'll end up saying it again. Off to twitter!

Joined: 03/14/2012

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MichaelCarras

January 9th, 2024 at 7:58 PM ^

Honestly, the computer rankings are mostly what I look at outside of playoff games. It is why all the Harbaugh hate was ridiculous after 2019.  Michigan from 2015-2019 was a very very good program and people acted like it was a massive failure, all because they didn't look at computer rankings and  overweighted losses to excellent OSU teams and bowl losses.

Joined: 01/08/2023

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othernel

January 9th, 2024 at 5:52 PM ^

Honestly, with bowl opt outs, these non-CFP bowl games are skewing the data way off. 

FSU and OSU aren't losing by 284 points if they weren't gutted

Joined: 08/04/2009

MGoPoints: 19924

PopeLando

January 9th, 2024 at 5:57 PM ^

SP+ rankings come out tomorrow, but Connelly has already posted on Twitter that Michigan is 1 and Georgia is 2.

That passes the gut check, but there’s definitely some skew based on bowl game opt-outs.

Joined: 08/01/2015

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AnthonyThomas

January 9th, 2024 at 7:43 PM ^

I'm legitimately disappointed that SP+ includes the non-CFP bowl games, because Connelly was obviously far more accurate than Vegas when it came to predicting M's two playoff games. I'd be curious to see the rankings with the CFP games as the only postseason games included, because they're the closest we could probably get to assessing everyone at the top in relation to each other. 

Also, I'm pretty sure he said on Twitter that M finished ahead of Georgia by one-tenth of a point. That's skewed by the Orange Bowl, but a M - Georgia matchup this year would have been epic (and I'm quite happy that it didn't happen). 

Joined: 11/13/2010

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TacoLivesOn

January 9th, 2024 at 6:02 PM ^

The Massey list is absolutely glorious.  

click through to have a look but here is a preview:  

Michigan 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 

 

Joined: 08/04/2017

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greymarch

January 9th, 2024 at 6:04 PM ^

Ranking the top 8, excluding the silly bowl games because they wreck how good or bad these teams actually were this season, here is my top 8:

1.Michigan

2.Georgia

3.Ohio State

4.Texas

5. Alabama

6. Washington

7. Oregon

8. Missouri

Joined: 02/06/2010

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WesternWolverine96

January 9th, 2024 at 6:12 PM ^

funny about the FPI,  I was just thinking that OSU and PSU were tougher outs than WAS and Bama

 

We played an almost perfect game and barely beat OSU (at home)

We played one of our worst games and still beat Bama

 

I think the FPI is the most correct in this case

Joined: 09/08/2019

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jimmyjoeharbaugh

January 9th, 2024 at 6:15 PM ^

I think it tracks that Michigan is statistically a bit better than Georgia this year and could certainly beat them.

But it's also possible they would beat us by 30.

Glad for the draws we got 

Joined: 09/12/2018

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Gooseggs

January 9th, 2024 at 6:19 PM ^

I think the uwash defense is much better than they are given credit for. Their corners and lbs seemed pretty good minus the first few drives. 

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bensant

January 9th, 2024 at 6:37 PM ^

Yeah, but we all know Georgia is the true #1 team in the country.  -According to all the ESPN talking heads, and Paul Finebaum show callers.  

Joined: 02/28/2016

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RobM_24

January 9th, 2024 at 6:45 PM ^

SP+

https://twitter.com/ESPN_BillC/status/1744780019103105290?s=19

 

I suppose you could call Michigan the Champions, the leaders, and the best. 

Joined: 01/27/2014

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dickdastardly

January 9th, 2024 at 6:48 PM ^

I am going with the 24 hour rule to enjoy Michigan's historic season for the ages. After that, it's all about next year's team and what they are going to do to get ready for it to defend their title. I hope for some good news that includes "Both Jim Harbaugh and J.J. McCarthy will be back at Michigan for the 2024 season."

 

Joined: 09/03/2020

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meeashagin

January 9th, 2024 at 8:04 PM ^

I think Bama was the best team we played, yes, OSU was close too but we were up double digits in 4th where as Bama had us beat with 4:41 left. Until JJ JJ'd then Blake Blake'd.

The main thing is Michigan beat teams that were elite at how they won and they all won differently yet Michigan was so diverse in how they can took teams apart that in the end we were the "bad matchup" vs everyone....which is the compliment Georgia always got...now belongs to us

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