What's your Top 5 in college football? I have M at #5
This is my Top 5:
1. Georgia
2. Alabama
3. Oklahoma
4. Ohio St
5. Michigan
Where is Cincinnati? I don't think they belong ranked in the Top 5. Even though they are undefeated, and they beat Navy today, they were outgained by Navy 308 to 271. Navy has the #60 defense in the Nation. And Cincinnati got only 271 total yards on them? The only team to get less yards against Navy than that was Air Force, at 225. Here's the list of opponents total yards against Navy's defense this season:
Marshall--464
Air Force--225
Houston--384
UCF--326
SMU--404
Memphis--415
I hope the CFP doesn't have Cincinnati in the Top 4 when their first ranking comes out on November 2. I don't think, from what they've shown so far, that they belong in the playoffs.
I suppose some might say Ohio St should be ranked higher. But I don't think their defense is good enough to beat the 3 teams ahead of them.
What's your Top 5?
October 24th, 2021 at 2:28 AM ^
If all four of those teams end up with (exactly) one loss, it would mean UGA loses to Bama in the SEC title game, UofM loses to OSU in The Game and all four win all the rest of the their games.
In that case, it's only a debate of whether Michigan should get in over Cinci. The other three will be a no brainer.
The PSU loss today hurt Michigan's chances of making it as a non-division champ. It'd be close. Would depend on what teams like ND, MSU, etc. do.
There's also Oklahoma and Oregon in the mix. Both of whom would be worthy one-loss teams over Michigan (and Cinci) if they win their respective conferences.
October 24th, 2021 at 7:42 AM ^
Michigan is probably out with a loss and an undefeated Cincy
October 24th, 2021 at 8:30 AM ^
Unless Michigan wins the B1G Championship Game with one loss. In that case, UC will be behind UM. No way in hell an undefeated or one loss B1G Champion is left out of the playoff - whether Cincinnati is undefeated, or not.
October 24th, 2021 at 8:35 AM ^
"I think it’s safe to say that Cincinnati will be left out if Michigan, OSU, Georgia, alabama all have 1 loss."
If Michigan and OSU each finish with one loss, that means OSU is going undefeated in the BIG reg season and winning the conference championship game. A one-loss Michigan team that can't even make it to the conference title game isn't getting into the playoffs ahead of an undefeated Cincinnati. That doesn't mean it's fair.
Michigan fans should be fervently rooting for SMU when they play at Cincy on Nov. 20
October 24th, 2021 at 2:22 AM ^
Well, Cinci doesn't really play any real games so...
October 23rd, 2021 at 11:51 PM ^
I have Michigan at #1.
October 24th, 2021 at 12:07 AM ^
Go to bed, you're drunk!
October 24th, 2021 at 12:01 AM ^
In 2018, Oklahoma rather famously needed overtime to beat Army --- at HOME.
The talking point after that game was "it's a total pain-in-the-neck for anybody to ever play a academy football team, as we've seen 314 other times before (most recently last week when Wisky survived Army). At least Oklahoma survived, chalk it up as a win and move on."
And Oklahoma, of course, made the CFP that year. The Army game was never really chatted about as OU slotted into that #4 spot in the CFP.
To play devil's advocate, why should Cincinnati not get that same consideration as regards their game today? Get a bit of a pass for simply surviving Navy?
October 24th, 2021 at 12:06 AM ^
2018 Army was an 11-2 team.
Navy is 1-6.
October 24th, 2021 at 12:16 AM ^
2018 Army was 10-2 at the time the 4 CFP teams were selected. Their Bowl win over Houston does not come into consideration as regards whether Oklahoma should have made the CFP.
2018 Army's 10 wins were over ..... TWO FCS teams, 3 MAC teams, 2 MWC teams with a combined 9 wins, 2 military academies who went a combined 8-15 in their non-Navy games, and a .500 Liberty team.
That's about as weak a 10-2 record as is possible. At least 2021 Navy is losing against decent AAC teams.
It is what it is though --- the Power 5 bias is a thing. 2018 Oklahoma barely beats Army, everyone points to Army's 10-2 record and gives OU credit for battling to a win. 2021 Cincinnati doesn't look great against Navy, everyone points to Navy's 1-6 record and says that UC is weak.
October 24th, 2021 at 12:23 AM ^
Cincy won't drop. A win is still a win. Hell, Nebraska kicked a touchdown pass just to get into overtime and some idiots still voted them National Champs in 97.
October 24th, 2021 at 12:27 AM ^
They beat ND and nobody else. Their schedule is not very good. Oklahoma played better teams. Power 5 bias is a thing but it is almost always true. Look at Cincinnati's schedule and tell me if you see a team like Purdue or Illinois or Texas A&M in it. If you have an off day in Power 5 conference, you lose. It is what it is
October 24th, 2021 at 2:36 AM ^
They will get the same consideration if they beat as many good teams as OU did that year. But, um, *checks Cincinnati schedule* they won't get the chance.
So when you play a schedule like they do, you have to beat most of the bad teams convincingly. So far, they were outgained by a bad IU team and they struggled with a really bad Navy team. Navy is awful (115th in FPI before today).
That doesn't look good when your only impressive game so far is a win over a meh ND team.
October 24th, 2021 at 8:34 AM ^
And Notre Dame has at least three wins of three points or so over middling at best teams.
October 24th, 2021 at 12:18 PM ^
So, cool, let's leave out non-Power 5 teams from the playoffs ad infintium.
If we're in a situation where we have (1) undefeated SEC champ Georgia, (2) undefeated Big XII champ Oklahoma, (3) 1-loss Ohio State as B1G Champ, and (4) Oregon as a 1-loss Pac-12 champion, I'm fine with leaving an undefeated Cincinnati out.
But if it's literally anything else? No ..... no I do not think an undefeated Cincinnati should be left out so that we can get a second B1G team (the B1G Champ should be in) and/or a second SEC team (the SEC Champ should be in) and/or a 1-loss Oregon team that does not have a win over the B1G Champ in.
October 24th, 2021 at 11:42 AM ^
Oklahoma got 355 yards in that game. That's low by Oklahoma standards, granted. But Cincinnati got only 271 yards, TOTAL, yesterday.
As far as Oklahoma making the playoffs that year, they had a much, much tougher schedule than Cincy has this year. Like I said above, maybe SMU will upset them and take away playoff possibility for Cincy, who doesn't belong there anyway.
October 24th, 2021 at 12:14 PM ^
Oklahoma's schedule was "much tougher"? Was it their wins over UCLA (3-9) and Florida Atlantic (5-7)? Was the rest of the Big XII (3-6 against other Power 5 conference teams in the regular season, with one of those wins being KU over Rutgers) really that great? Was it the fact that OU had to play Texas twice before they could beat them once? Was it the fact that they had zero wins in zero games played against any teams in the Top 14 of the Final CFP poll?
If you're bringing up "yards gained" as a metric, you're reaching a bit. OU beat Army by 7 at home in OT, Cincinnati beats Navy by 7 on the road - but OU gained more yards so their win is by default better? No Power 5 bias there right, given we're now looking at yards?
As regards SMU beating Cincinnati, you haven't provided any data that supports your belief. I think you're simply ROOTING for that to happen (so the "pain-in-your-ass" Bearcats are out of the way) as opposed to showing any logic for your belief.
October 24th, 2021 at 12:02 AM ^
1) Georgia
2) OSU
3) Bama
4) Michigan
October 24th, 2021 at 12:05 AM ^
1 osu
2 georgia
3 bama
4 oklahoma
5 michigan
sadly, osu looks very good
October 24th, 2021 at 12:45 AM ^
Last 5 games
Tulane
Akron
Rutgers
Maryland
Indiana
October 24th, 2021 at 2:43 AM ^
Yes, the schedule has been abysmal but Rutgers and IU have decent-ish defenses and OSU cut through both of them like a warm knife through butter. They almost tripled what Michigan scored on Rutgers and almost tripled what MSU scored on IU.
So their offense appears unstoppable. What remains to be seen is whether their defense really has turned a corner because none of those teams have remotely decent offenses.
October 24th, 2021 at 1:04 AM ^
This is probably most accurate. OSU's offense is humming, and I think they'd beat Georgia on a neutral field if they played next week. They score points so effortlessly.
Bama's pass defense is iffy, but they won't be tested again there this season until the CFP. Oklahoma isn't great, but Williams seems to have enough to get them through Bedlam.
Michigan should be 11-0 heading into the Game, but they have to keep it within one possession to change any national minds.
October 24th, 2021 at 8:56 AM ^
The difference between OSU and Michigan offenses are at QB and WR. OSU has a top flight QB and NFL WRs all over the field. Michigan has a good, solid college game manager at QB and college rookies all over the field at WR. Neither are going to step up to OSU's level this year - even if the 5* gets thrown in.
But the biggest difference between the two units is coaching. Day and his OC know how to get open looks all over the field and hit them relentlessly. There are no vanilla game plans for nondescript opponents, and there is a very real desire to blow scores wide open. Harbaugh has demonstrated a very real preference for a 6 yard gain between the tackles to an open Nico Collins downfield. Even with Nico, the shots downfield are just a gratuitous way to back safeties off the run game. It's worked against bad teams, but has not against OSU.
The Harbaughffense will win a lot of games. But it won't win a score fest against an offense like OSU's (or OK, or Bama). If the defense can hold them under 30, all is well. Give up more than that, forget it.
Oddly enough, I do think Michigan could win a rock fight against Georgia. Not saying they would, but they'd have a fighting chance. UGA's offense plays into Jim's hands very well...
October 24th, 2021 at 11:41 AM ^
Not disagreeing except OU. Once again they can't play defense, and ball control offense will grind them down. UM would beat them by double digits.
October 24th, 2021 at 12:20 AM ^
Georgia.
Alabama.
Ole Mississippi.
Texas. A&M.
Bonus--.
Kentucky.
Florida.
LSU.
Auburn
B1G is having a down year.
/S
October 24th, 2021 at 12:26 AM ^
1. Georgia
2. Ohio State
3. Alabama
Then there is a huge drop off after the top 3. There are several teams that could claim the #4 and #5 spots.
October 24th, 2021 at 1:02 AM ^
Georgia
osu
bama
cinci
ou
October 24th, 2021 at 1:06 AM ^
Also, the Cincinnati arguments are mostly academic. SMU will beat them.
October 24th, 2021 at 5:56 AM ^
and even if Cincinnati beats SMU, if Michigan wins its next three, Michigan will be ranked ahead of them.
(wins over MSU, PSU > SMU)
No need to worry about it now.
Beat State(s)!
October 24th, 2021 at 1:49 AM ^
I am combining team's records ("resume") and their results ("did you win or lose"), aiming for a mix of power ranking and and strength of resume. This won't be 100% who would beat the other on a neutral field, but I do heavily consider that criteria.
- Georgia
- Ohio State
- Alabama
- Michigan
- Michigan State
- Cincinnati
- Oklahoma
- Ole Miss
- Texas A&M
- Oregon
There is a clear distinction after 1-3. And a small dropoff after 5 and another small dropoff after 7 (the undefeated's). 8-10 is teams with a great win or great record and a small chance to make the CFP if they win out.
Michigan vs Michigan State is going to be one of the most definitive must-see matchups of the season. A late season top ten (maybe top 5?) matchup between bitter rivals with a 50/50 recent history but plenty of vitirol and the return of the "little brother" godfather with Mike Hart. LFG!
October 24th, 2021 at 8:02 AM ^
I think this is the formula, but think you have to put Cincinnati 4 or 5.
They went on the road and beat ND in South Bend.
October 24th, 2021 at 11:37 AM ^
Honestly, where to put Cincinnati was probably the toughest decision. They've done what everybody asked them to do (beat up on the AAC teams, get a win vs a good P5, and on the road no less). But for me, it came down to Cincinnati has a better win than either Michigan/MSU but I really think both Michigan schools would beat Cincinnati on a neutral field. That being said, Cincinnati (if they keep winning) will jump the loser of next week's matchup and be right there in the top 5, and likely top 4 at the end of the season after Ohio State likely wrecks both Michigan schools
October 24th, 2021 at 12:55 PM ^
Oklahoma is probably better than you're giving them credit for. They score a lot. That freshman QB lacks experience. That is probably their fatal flaw. But still, that would probably only be against Georgia and Alabama, who both have defenses that would give him more than he could handle.
October 24th, 2021 at 1:58 AM ^
You’re putting way too much weight on a single game to argue Cincinnati shouldn’t be a top-5 team. If you did the same for Michigan’s game against Rutgers (and especially if you only looked at the second half), you could say the same thing about them. Cincy’s win against Notre Dame is better than any of Michigan’s wins so far.
October 24th, 2021 at 2:45 AM ^
Yeah, Michigan doesn't have a strong argument over Cincinnati right now. It's close. But not only did they struggle with Navy, they struggled with (and were outgained by) a bad IU team.
October 24th, 2021 at 9:18 AM ^
Michigan struggled with Rutgers, was down to a below average Nebraska team late in the game. The same could apply here, but we dismiss those things because we’re obviously Michigan fans. OSU struggled with Tulsa. Cincy as of now has the best win in the top 5 outside of Georgia, with their victory over ND on the road. Ppl are hyping up OSU all of a sudden and all they’ve done is beat up on the worst teams in the B1G East. Cincy played Indiana on the road with Penix as their starting QB. The Buckeyes just faced them with their 4th string QB out there.
At some point winning has to matter! Cincy has gone 15 straight regular season games without a loss. Put them in there and prove it on the field if they belong.
October 24th, 2021 at 7:57 AM ^
Oklahoma was shut out by KANSAS at halftime but these same folks have them in their top 5 and don't drop them.
October 24th, 2021 at 9:03 AM ^
…And Navy would be favored by 7+ over Kansas
October 24th, 2021 at 1:03 PM ^
Michigan dominated Rutgers in the 1st half. It could be argued that they mailed it in in the 2nd half. Which is what I think happened.
At no point did Cincy dominate Navy, throughout the whole game. It was nothing but a struggle from beginning to end. If they were a Top 4 team, they would have had a couple of quarters where they showed they are a Top 4 team. They didn't do it at any point. That is a red flag.
Cincy still has SMU. They could get tripped up in that game.
October 24th, 2021 at 5:42 AM ^
If Oklahoma wasn't named "Oklahoma" they wouldn't be ranked nearly as high. From what I've seen in their games so far, they have a good deal of talent, especially offensively, but they seem awfully shakey, in addition to being extremely lucky.
I would put Georgia, Cincinnati, OSU, Bama, and Michigan, and probably Michigan State ahead of them.
October 24th, 2021 at 7:56 AM ^
Cincinnati deserves a shot if they win out. In 2020, they finished the regular season undefeated and Georgia needed a comeback to beat them in their bowl game. In 2021, they have victories over a B1G team and Notre Dame.
That being said, there are scenarios we're they get bumped. (Bama and Oklahoma, win out. One loss or better B1G champ, Georgia stays in)
October 24th, 2021 at 8:00 AM ^
Lol you created this thread to share a hot take on Cincinnati.
One that makes NO sense because you don't apply it to Oklahoma.
October 24th, 2021 at 8:04 AM ^
I don’t think Oklahoma belongs in the top 5, but then again I’m not 100% sure Michigan does either. Both are undefeated but neither consistently pass the proverbial “eye test” that you would expect from a top-5 team. Oklahoma has barely escaped some truly awful teams, and Michigan is a fairly one-dimensional team that has not beaten anyone currently ranked, so you don’t really know how good they are.
If we are just being honest, I think there is still a heavy, heavy divide between who the top three teams are (Georgia, Alabama, OSU) and everyone else. After them, a lot of the teams are more or less interchangeable with exploitable flaws. But I’ll give a crack at this anyway:
1) Georgia
2) OSU
3) Alabama
4) Oklahoma
5) Michigan
Whoever slides into that fourth seed against the other top 3 is going to just going to get their collective skulls crushed in the semifinals. This will end with some combination of Georgia, OSU or Alabama playing each other for a national title.
The more things change, the more they stay the same.
October 24th, 2021 at 8:08 AM ^
1. Alabama
2. Georgia
3. Ohio State
4 and 5 are tough to choose. They all have serious flaws but can also beat just about anyone on any given Saturday: Oklahoma, Michigan, Texas A&M,….Hell, even Pitt has a good team. Like to see them play someone.
October 24th, 2021 at 11:34 AM ^
Pitt had a awful home loss to Western Michigan 44 to 41
October 24th, 2021 at 1:06 PM ^
Pitt had 3 turnovers in that game.
They just had a convincing win over Clemson yesterday.
October 24th, 2021 at 8:47 AM ^
The top 5 will probably stay the same as last week and Uof〽️ will remain at 6.
Our Lil Sister Spartans will be 7.
October 24th, 2021 at 8:50 AM ^
1. Dylan
2. Dylan
3. Dylan
4. Dylan
5. Dylan…because he spits hot fire!!
October 24th, 2021 at 9:48 AM ^
1) Georgia
2) 'Bama
3) Buckeyes
4) Cinti
5) Michigan
4,5 and 6 are very close with 6 being Oklahoma. There are strengths and weaknesses of each of these teams that cancel out. Cinti issue is strength of schedule.