Washington Defense vs Michigan's Other Opponents
I was pretty surprised to see it, but (according to NCAA stats), Washington's Total Defense is rated #94 in the nation. That's worse than 13 of our 14 opponents so far this season. The only defense worse was UNLV (#103). I know Penix is a fantastic QB and I've got lots of respect for what UW has done this season, and still, I'm shocked by that stat.
January 2nd, 2024 at 2:56 PM ^
We will score more points than they will.
January 2nd, 2024 at 3:45 PM ^
If this happens I bet we win!
January 2nd, 2024 at 3:49 PM ^
That would normally be true.
January 2nd, 2024 at 4:29 PM ^
I played high school football and I'm not bragging when I say this but we were undefeated when we outscored our opponents
January 2nd, 2024 at 3:52 PM ^
If this happens I bet we are champions!
But, then again...the NCAA may give it to Alabama.
January 2nd, 2024 at 4:01 PM ^
Is that you, John Madden???
January 2nd, 2024 at 4:07 PM ^
Bet!
January 2nd, 2024 at 5:10 PM ^
Yes, but at what cost? At what cost?
/brooding
January 2nd, 2024 at 3:56 PM ^
Indeed, here is JJ's chance to put on a show with the offense and raise his draft stock. (Ducks.)
January 2nd, 2024 at 5:43 PM ^
They will score more points then we will.
January 2nd, 2024 at 7:39 PM ^
ISWYDT
January 2nd, 2024 at 2:58 PM ^
They have squeaked through a lot of games against not-great teams. If their RB is out that will further limit them on offense. If we take away Odunze like we did Harrison, it might not even be close.
January 2nd, 2024 at 3:04 PM ^
Polk is a great WR in his own right, I think comp for this WR room is 2021 OSU (Wilson/Olave/JSN)—deep, talented, can’t necessarily take away all the weapons. We’ve been fortunate the past few games that we could play Jordan Rules with their #1 WR and neutralize a big part of the passing attack, not so sure that’ll be the case with UW
With that being said, our secondary is on a ridiculous tear and if they can keep mixing coverages and getting pressure up front like they do it may not matter who’s running routes
January 2nd, 2024 at 3:12 PM ^
I don't think they as good as that OSU lineup, and I don't think Penix is as good as many of the OSU QBs. And they aren't playing behind an O-line of five star future NFL starters.
If we clean up special teams and the D shows up like it did yesterday we'll win and I'll change my avatar from the Everclear/helmet that I set it to during the worst of the BPONE/RR era when I ate a lemon.
January 2nd, 2024 at 3:23 PM ^
I agree. I think the past three OSU teams are all considerably better than this year's Washington
January 2nd, 2024 at 3:27 PM ^
Penix is damn good. He may not be Stroud, but he's honestly not far off. He's also playing behind the Joe Moore Award winning line for 2023, which is better than what OSU has trotted out the past few years.
Make no mistake, this Washington team is legit.
January 2nd, 2024 at 3:58 PM ^
A chance for our guys to take it personally that they did not win the Joe Moore award again.
January 2nd, 2024 at 9:15 PM ^
If they want to use that as motivation then by all means, whatever works for them.
But if we’re being fair, I don’t think Michigan deserved to win the award again this year. The line play was certainly very good, but it was definitely a drop off from the previous two years. Michigan was only going to win it a third year in a row if they were so absolutely dominant that there was no other logical choice.
January 2nd, 2024 at 3:59 PM ^
OSU's OLine was absolutely awful in the Cotton Bowl after switching out just one player (may have been disciplinary reasons w Day providing "bad practices" cover).
January 2nd, 2024 at 4:45 PM ^
Penix is a big reason that their OL won the Joe Moore. He's Mahomes level at avoiding pressure. He barely took any sacks at IU too
January 2nd, 2024 at 10:02 PM ^
Penix is absolutely ridiculous. Watching him last night, the guy couldn't miss.
January 2nd, 2024 at 3:37 PM ^
Penix is willing to run, unlike Stroud.
The WRs might not have the highs of OSU's group, but they are all very good at least 3 across.
Their OL also won the Moore award this year.
The offense will be a tough out.
January 2nd, 2024 at 3:45 PM ^
He's also excellent when pressured, unlike Stroud (at least Stroud at OSU).
January 2nd, 2024 at 3:50 PM ^
Their OL is elite at pass pro, that's at least half of what allows Penix to put up his numbers. Our D will have to speed him up or he'll find the holes in coverage eventually.
January 2nd, 2024 at 4:20 PM ^
they aren't playing behind an O-line of five star future NFL starters.
No but it did win the Joe Moore award and kept Penix sack free against a pretty good Texas DLine.
This will likely be the best Oline, QB and receiving room we have faced this year. Although OSU's receiving room is awfully close but they had McCord throwing to them.
I think we can move the ball on them. Do the boa constrictor thing. Win TOP, and just get ahead.
What we can't do is sleep on them and get behind.
January 2nd, 2024 at 4:39 PM ^
Punts are death. The end.
Control the ball, but pay it off with points.
In the last three Ohio State games we punted only ONE time in the second half in TOTAL.
That's why we won.
January 2nd, 2024 at 5:03 PM ^
The best D they've played all year was Oregon at #22 and they beat them by 3 points both times. Oregon State is #39 and they beat them by 2. Texas is #34 and they beat them by 6.
I think the UW offense is good but not as good as we might think based on SP+ alone. Their offensive stats are due to Pac12 opponents that are comparatively (and historically) the worst P5 conference in the country, in terms of defense.
There's a reason they haven't had a team in the CFP for 5 years.
Penix is good and he may do some damage but not enough. UM will get pressure on him and with Johnson on Odunze I don't think that combo is going to be as successful. With Dillon Johnson likely out, the UW running game is in serious doubt as well.
It's easier to rack up stats when you have all day to throw and I think Penix has benefitted from that in many of their games. That is not what we're going to see on 1/8/24.
Even if UM does find itself in a shootout, which I seriously doubt, I think the porous UW defense will allow UM to at least keep pace if not more.
January 2nd, 2024 at 7:04 PM ^
I've read/heard that their O-line is very good.
January 2nd, 2024 at 3:14 PM ^
I think M's biggest advantage, defensively, in this game is that the defense has basically been constructed to play against a passing spread with multiple weapons. The biggest difference in Washington vs. OSU is how much they love to throw the deep ball (and how good Penix is at throwing it/how strong Odunze is on the catch). M has prevented OSU from going deep by keeping the safeties over the top. I don't think that will matter in this game (ie Penix is going to throw 5-8 deep balls regardless). What happens on those will be key.
January 2nd, 2024 at 3:17 PM ^
I need someone to explain to me why Texas just man’ed up UW with no safety help over the top. UW just back-shoulder-fadded the TO DEATH.
January 2nd, 2024 at 3:22 PM ^
I think that's what they do. Man up and count on their pass rush to get there. Those great Texas d-tackles don't really provide much interior rush, though. And Penix was really good at sliding around the pocket.
And it's hard to install a new defensive philosophy in between a regular season and bowl game, even with the 3-4 weeks off.
January 2nd, 2024 at 3:26 PM ^
Texas, by way of comparison, is #34 in Total Defense (worse than 8 of our opponents).
January 2nd, 2024 at 3:30 PM ^
To SP+, Texas's defense is worse than four of Michigan's opponents (OSU, Iowa, PSU, and Bama) and equal to one (Maryland).
The next best defenses UW saw were Oregon (#16) and [edit: nobody worth mentioning]. Michigan at #1 is nothing like anything they've seen this season.
January 2nd, 2024 at 3:52 PM ^
Washington didn't play UCLA this season, they played USC and Cal. The top 5 SP+ defenses they've played so far are:
- #11 Texas
- #16 Oregon
- #24 Utah
- #35 Oregon State
- #40 Arizona
Michigan will be on a completely different level.
That said, this will be the best offense we've faced by a fair amount, per SP+. Top 5 offenses we've faced:
- #11 Alabama
- #30 Penn State
- #32 UNLV
- #33 Ohio State
- #56 Maryland
This should be fun.
January 2nd, 2024 at 4:00 PM ^
Man, the Big Ten was remarkably bad offensively this year. (LOL at OSU falling behind Penn State's dink-fest offense.)
I assume OSU's rating took a big hit with their bowl game.
January 2nd, 2024 at 4:14 PM ^
Thanks for the correction, re: UCLA.
As for UW's offense, the overwhelming majority of Michigan's defense saw a very similar squad last year against Ohio State.
January 2nd, 2024 at 3:22 PM ^
Egbuka is rated on level with Odunze. I think MHJ, Egbuka, and Stover are a more dangerous receiving corps than Odunze, Polk, and McMillan.
January 2nd, 2024 at 3:27 PM ^
That's nuts (whoever's making that ranking, not your post). Odunze is leagues more terrifying than Egbuka (plus the ball delivery is on an entirely different level).
January 2nd, 2024 at 3:31 PM ^
Yes, plus Westover is an effective chain-moving tight end, and they have Giles Jackson too.
But if their RB Dillon Johnson can't play or is limited by his injury then I think they will be one-dimensional and that's not going to work against M's defense.
January 2nd, 2024 at 3:43 PM ^
If Egbuka wasn’t highly rated out of HS and wore an OSU jersey, we wouldn’t hear about him. I think UW has 3 WRs better than him, and Penix is better than every OSU QB except CJ (and on the college level, that might be debatable). Better coach as well.
If JJ plays a clean game, we are absolutely going to be able to score on them. We aren’t going to shut them out, but our secondary should be able to hold up well enough. We’ll see.
January 2nd, 2024 at 4:41 PM ^
I think the difference is in qb play not receiver play imo
January 2nd, 2024 at 3:38 PM ^
I'm leery of entertaining this thought because I remember TCU.
January 2nd, 2024 at 3:45 PM ^
I’ve read some discussion that Penix had some sort of injury late in the season and that affected them a bit and led to the closer games. Who knows if true but he definitely didn’t look hurt last night.
this game feels like facing Stroud era OSU but indoors and on fast turf which is great for a finesse team. Won’t be surprised at all if this is a shootout but I think we’ll do enough to win
January 2nd, 2024 at 4:26 PM ^
I heard he took a blue pill for his ails.
January 2nd, 2024 at 4:57 PM ^
On last night’s broadcast it was mentioned that each of his last 3 (4?) seasons ended in injury. Couple of ACL’s IIRC.
January 2nd, 2024 at 5:30 PM ^
They won their last ten games by ten points or less.
January 2nd, 2024 at 2:59 PM ^
Alex's FFFF will reveal all
January 2nd, 2024 at 3:02 PM ^
I can't wait for content this week.
January 2nd, 2024 at 3:11 PM ^
Ditto that. Wonder if our “playing ohio state” defense will apply. We do have experience vs Stroud as well.
January 2nd, 2024 at 3:22 PM ^
Do we get some UFR?