Washington Defense vs Michigan's Other Opponents

Submitted by dahblue on January 2nd, 2024 at 2:55 PM

I was pretty surprised to see it, but (according to NCAA stats), Washington's Total Defense is rated #94 in the nation. That's worse than 13 of our 14 opponents so far this season. The only defense worse was UNLV (#103). I know Penix is a fantastic QB and I've got lots of respect for what UW has done this season, and still, I'm shocked by that stat.

reshp1

January 2nd, 2024 at 3:55 PM ^

Our offense has been very binary this year, either getting stuffed in a box against the really good defenses or being deadly efficient against the not so good ones. Hopefully Washington plays below that threshold and we're able to keep pace, because as good as our defense is, I think they're going to score quite a bit still.

MRunner73

January 2nd, 2024 at 3:57 PM ^

As long as Sharrone can dial a mix of offensive plays with run/pass combos. JJ having confidence in his passing. Using Blake as receiver running out of the backfield was a great new wrinkle. 

Now that the 30 day layoff is over with, I expect this offense to play even sharper. The special teams will be much sharper.

Yes, the Michigan offense is capable of carving up the Washington defense. The Michigan defense will do what they always do, travel well and step up when the game is on the line.

spacecowboy

January 2nd, 2024 at 3:58 PM ^

throw out the stats and then throw out the stats.  big chip showdown.  Michael Penix is the real deal and so are we.  Special teams wERE dreadful vs. bama, if they regress to even an average showing we should come out on top.  

my one suggestion is to put wilson back on punts instead of thaw or morgan.  Put morgan and thaw back on kickoffs as a curve ball to throw off the husky's from the kickoff.  

my other idea is to take the ball if we win the coin toss for the same basic reason.  LFGB

aa_squared

January 2nd, 2024 at 4:02 PM ^

Michigan needs to control the ball and eat up the clock and score.

I don't think Washington will score every time b/c (they have scored 4 - 5 consecutive possessions in a few games) of the Michigan defense. Of course it will be the best defense they will see this season. If we can do this and keep Penix out of any rhythm, Michigan will have a very strong chance of winning.

Jinxed

January 2nd, 2024 at 4:11 PM ^

Honestly we should just start this game running every play until they show they can stop it. If Penn State's D couldn't stop it for a whole half I don't think Washington's D can. 

We only need a couple stops and no turnovers. 

aiglick

January 2nd, 2024 at 4:18 PM ^

They face really good offenses week in and week out. Helps explain some of it. Though that is more than a standard deviation below average so there’s that.

njvictor

January 2nd, 2024 at 4:43 PM ^

Washington's defense is not what I'm worried about. It's all about containing Penix. He's lights out and also is fantastic at avoiding pressure. I think we go right back to the OSU game plan, keep him contained, squeeze the pocket, and force him to make mistakes

UM Fan in Nashville

January 2nd, 2024 at 4:48 PM ^

This game just Screams PSU game to me.  We have NFL level coaches prepping for a game that has a big NFL vibe, "keep the ball out of their Pro Bowl QB's hands".   You have one of the best players on the other sideline at QB. 

 

I asked my 12 yr old son late last night, "Let's say Penix is going to score a minimum 3 points every time he has the ball, and their defense can't stop the run, how do you think Michigan is going to approach this game to win it all?"   This is a time of possession, keep the ball out of Penix's hands, kind of game.  Let them drive and D hold them to 3, then march down the field with 5 yard runs and 8 minutes off the clock for 7 every time.   Rinse and Repeat.  

Tom25

January 2nd, 2024 at 4:55 PM ^

Expect Wash’s defense to tee off on our run game and play hyper aggressive. They don’t have much to lose if they give up some big plays along the way because of their offense. Their defensive strategy will be high risk, high reward. Force us to beat them through the air in the teeth of blitzes. The last thing they want to see is M offense drive the ball 80 yards in 8 minutes getting 5 yard chunks in the run game. I feel like our offense is due for a breakout game. Didn’t see it against PSU, OSU, Iowa or Bama. But I think the offense will score in the 30s. 

Offensively, I think their starting RB will be unable to play, so they will put the ball even more in Penix’s hands and let him go for it. This is basically OSU’s offense in 21-22 with Stroud, but without the top shelf running back. We have this game plan. Just need our dline to cause enough problems to disrupt the passing game. 

Golden section

January 2nd, 2024 at 5:24 PM ^

The Massey Ranking have our offence ranked 8 Washington 7 our D ranked 2 theirs 23

BCF Toys with it's FEI rankings have our O ranked 5 Washington 4. our D ranked 2 theirs 27

So these raking services has our offences pretty close  our Ds notes much. 

Texas had the 6th ranked D and Penix put up 500 yards on them.  

stevedore

January 2nd, 2024 at 6:08 PM ^

Lots of respect for Washington, but I recall that some folks were rooting to match up against Florida State or Washington during the last week or two of the season- avoiding Georgia/Alabama/Texas.

It certainly will be a difficult out regardless of who Michigan matches up against but we did feel like we wanted Michigan to play these guys in the first round instead of Georgia.. in some ways it feels like Alabama was the tougher out.

aiglick

January 2nd, 2024 at 6:19 PM ^

It could be a classic but I hope we go full Nova on them like was done to us in the basketball championship where the Italian just gave us the business that night.