Warren's Stock Plummeting
http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/NFL-draft-stock-watch.html
"Either way, I think Warren made a huge mistake deciding to come out early and doesn’t look capable of developing into a starter at either corner or free safety any time soon in the NFL."
Is there any way he could come back to UM? Or his is decision final?
final.
he hired a scu.... i mean agent. no chance.
On another note, I think that he's run a faster 40 (4.5-ish) since the combine.
Lets just hope this doesnt turn into an Ernest Shazor situation where he jumped to the league to early without a degree only to see his career fade away
Or end up on the side of a Milk carton like Shazor.
Hindsight only works for me when I am staring at girls asses.
I wish he'd stuck around, in part for selfish reasons such as having him, but in part because as the senior leader of our defense and hopefully a solid secondary he could have gone much higher.
I hope as he recovers from his injury and put up better times he'll be able to gain some ground back and get drafted.
Just not where he was hoping (late 1st/early 2nd).
Hopefully he can goto a Tampa2 system where speed at CB isn't needed quite as much as a manD system
It's a sad story for him right now, I hope he gets on a team and finds his way onto the field. I also hope that this will put some scare into players who who aren't truly ready for the NFL.
Warren's going to make several hundred thousand dollars a year
If he makes an NFL roster, that is.
I still think he'd be an absolute steal in the 5th round.
I'm going to use some comps here.
Morgan Trent was a sixth round pick. Leon Hall was a first round pick. Marlin Jackson was a first round pick.
That being said, Warren is obviously not a first rounder, but is he really close to Morgan Trent?
No disrespect to Trent, but the "eye test" says that DW was a pretty damn good football player for us (that "pick" against Indiana this past season is the play I will always remember).
And on this board you never heard a lot of "man I wish we had Morgan Trent for one more year" while you do get that a lot for DW.
In my mind some NFL GM will get it right and take DW in the fourth or fifth round and get a steal. Just because some jackass writes bad things about DW does not make them true. In fact is this website even credible? I had never heard of it before.
We got to the ball at the same time but when we came down I just "barwised" it from him.
Nice verb creation DW
But one reason that GM has a supposed steal is because he won't be paying the player very much. If DW had come back, improved his skills and technique (with a second year in the same defense), and moved closer to the first round, the money difference would be huge over his first contract. That is why coming out early is usually not a great idea if you not at least in the second round.
I never said I agreed with DW's decision to leave.
I was simply stating that "here's where recent Michigan CBs went in the draft, here is where I think DW fits in, and is the OP's website even credible in the first place?"
isn't technique or skill right? Its speed, which won't change with another season in AA.
Warren made the right decision.
Yeah I mean speed, hip twists...he played well against Big Ten WRs' right? Made some sick plays...
I definitely didn't want him going early since I selfishly wanted him back for our D but in this economy...a chance to take care of your family. You got to do it...Not like he is not going to get drafted.
Rumours about the NFL lockout in 2011 and changes to rookie pay scale might have had a little bit to do with it too.
Yeah I mean speed, hip twists...he played well against Big Ten WRs' right? Made some sick plays...
I definitely didn't want him going early since I selfishly wanted him back for our D but in this economy...a chance to take care of your family. You got to do it...Not like he is not going to get drafted.
Rumours about the NFL lockout in 2011 and changes to rookie pay scale might have had a little bit to do with it too.
The referenced article in the OP specifically mentioned footwork in addition to speed - that is a learned technique.
You don't hear a lot of people wishing we had Morgan Trent for another year because he didn't leave early.
Is there anyone reading this board who doesn't think Michigan's defense would have been much stronger last year if Morgan Trent had been available?
I think most pundits viewed him as a mid to late round pick.
I recall RR being upset that DW didn’t wait to hear back what his projection would be… I think he was projected extra medium at best.
I feel bad for the guy but like all of us said at the beginning he needed to come back for his senior season.
But I was hoping he had stuck around, as we sure could use him. Hopefully his decision doesn't come back to haunt him in the long run.
How does draft stock changing after further evaluation correlate with the quality of the decision to go pro early? Wouldn't the NFL combine expose the same weaknesses in 2011?
The bottom line is that Warren considers himself an NFL player and he'll be drafted and have a chance to prove himself as a professional. If hes not good enough, he'll be cut whether he's a 2nd round pick or a 5th round pick. It really doesn't make a huge difference. The pay differential from his rookie contract are offset by an additional season of playing football professionally.
The costs of going back to school to finish up a degree are not prohibitive for a guy who is going to almost certainly earn hundreds of thousands of dollars in the next few years. So, if the NFL doesn't work out, Plan B still exists. And Warren will probably get more out of school when not spending 40 hours a week on football.
Bottom line: for most guys who can get drafted in NFL, the decision to turn pro is the correct one when all the costs and benefits are factored in. The reason to stay (for most people) is the college experience and lifestyle, which some individuals just aren't that into.
I think the idea is that truly dominant players don't see their draft stock drop drastically, unless there's a known weakness while they are playing (i.e. Tim Tebow's mechanics). Meaning, if he had come back and simply dominated receivers, a slower than expected 40 wouldn't kill him.
Coming back another season where he upped his performance probably would have helped him if he "simply dominated receivers"...but what if he didn't and he just repeated his strong, but not great, performance again. Or what if he got hurt?
Moreover, Donavan already proved hes a very good college player. Coming back for another season wouldn't have made a major change in perceptions about him in that regard. His 40 time still would have hindered his stock either way.
Warren didn't make a mistake. The only way this is true is if he is immediately cut and never earns a penny as a pro football player.
First, Warren ran the 4.65 & 4.68 on 3/2. Why on 3/24 would his stock suddenly be free falling? Shouldn't this have happened say 20 days ago? My guess is that this is just filler news.
Also, he had a sprained ankle during those (and his recent running sessions).
On 3/12, Warren ran in the mid 4.5s and is joining BG on 4/8 on his pro day to run the 40 again.
If he get's in the low 4.5s, or high 4.4s, his stock will be "moving on up".
http://www.annarbor.com/sports/um-football/donovan-warren-borrows-shoes…
sickening how reliant "Draft Experts" are on the 40 times. take a look at all those whose draft stock is plummeting; they are all related to slower than expected 40 times. true, you dont want john navarre out there running down a WR, but i think the vast majority of these things are completely overrated - if the fastest guys in the world were the best football players, than usain bolt would already have been a pro-bowler.
I've grown to hate the NFL draft, and everything associated with it.
I reliance on a single metric, in a contrived environment that would never be replicated during a game, as a means of identifying top talent is ludicrous, but I also think that most scouts take into account the player's entire career when determining where he will be drafted. I know that I'm guilty of this as much as anyone, but your desire to see the local guys do well sometimes clouds your objective measurement of their abilities. Warren was a good DB this year, but did struggle at times against the quicker, bigger WRs, and wasn't as fast as other top DBs. If he stayed, I figured he would go in the 2nd round or late 1st if everything went well. After this season, though, 3rd round was about his ceiling, and it sounds like he'll be a bit lower. It sucks, but I'm also not going to begrudge a guy for trying to become a pro and possibly making millions.
Is taking notes. (I hope)
He was way too confident when he though he'd go late first or early second. He must not have gotten good advice. Even if he performed really well, I don't think anyone thought of him as any better than a 3rd rounder.
didn't RR try and talk him out of going pro and coming back?
I hate sports agents. They're leeches. They attach themselves to players and deceive them about their draft prospects to get them to leave school. By the time the player realizes he's made a mistake, it's too late.
I wish Donovan Warren the best in his career, but I definitely do not feel bad for him. He made this choice on his own, and it was a gamble. He lost. He now does not have a degree from one of the best schools in the country, but he also does not have his senior season and a chance to be a first or second round pick. Bad choices sometimes have bad consequences. He'll always be a Michigan Man, but the guy made a bad decision.
the draft has not happened and he still is 1 40 yard dash away from being a 2nd or 3rd round pick. Even if he is not, he still can have a long and successful career (there are tons of current NFL players who were not top 3 round picks).
Moreover, if he chooses, he can come back to Michigan and finish up his degree. It's his decision.
It's not a bad choice, in fact it is relatively logical (he may get injured, he may suffer from a lockout/ rookie cap in 2 years, he may have a terrible season in RR's/ GERG's 3-3-5...).
The NFL money is certain, and apparently, his 40 time is the difference between a 2-3 and 5-6 round pick. This won't improve playing 1 more year in college.
I agree he should of finished his degree, mainly because I didn't think he was anything spectacular in the first place. He could of had a lot to prove his senior year, and could of walked away looking a lot better.
I really like that the NBA has the process where a player can 'apply for the drat' and do all the work outs and combines to see how they are evaluated and where they are projected to go. If they don't like what they are hearing and where they are projected to go, they can decide to go back to college if they make that decision by a certain date and haven't hired an agent.
It'd be nice to see the nfl adopt something like that.
March 25th, 2010 at 12:30 AM ^
The NFLPA has negotiated a limited period their contract and the longstanding position of the courts not to interfere with collective bargaining between unions and the companies they work for. It's the same idea as why Clarett wasn't allowed to enter the draft despite suing to force the NFL to let him enter the draft. They've bargained that period down to a small window. Players can receive a grade and return to school if they don't hire an agent, but it is a much smaller window and they can't work out for teams.
Many players do it every year, including Donovan Warren. The collective bargaining is discussed extensively in the diary below.
http://mgoblog.com/diaries/was-maurice-clarett-right
March 25th, 2010 at 10:24 AM ^
I can't get myself to feel sorry for Warren. He had an okay junior year (not entirely his fault though) and most of us were scratching our heads when he decided to come out early. He has pretty much screwed himself over and, in the process, left us high and dry at DB. Maybe he will succeed in the NFL and it turns out he won't need that degree. I think that it's more likely that he will grow to regret his decision.