UM Basketball Players Going Pro: Who got it right? Who got it wrong?
Given the questions regarding Iggy and Poole, I thought it might be fun to look at the pros under Beilein and whether or not they made the right call in leaving the program when they did.
Under Beilein, twelve Wolverines have moved on and played in the NBA according to Real GM: Manny Harris, Darius Morris, Tim Hardaway Jr., Trey Burke, Nik Stauskas, Mitch McGary, Glenn Robinson III, Caris Levert, DJ Wilson, Derrick Walton, Moe Wagner and Duncan Robinson.
I filed them under the following categories:
Left Too Early:
Manny Harris
Darius Morris
Returned and Diminished Draft Stock:
Glenn Robinson III
Mitch McGary (?)
Returned and Improved Draft Stock:
Trey Burke
Tim Hardaway Jr.
Moe Wagner
Got It Just Right:
Nik Stauskas
DJ Wilson
Levert, Walton and Robinson didn't fit as Walton and Robinson went undrafted and Levert suffered so many injuries.
In general, I think players with great athleticism should leave as soon as possible, even if their games are unpolished as the examples of DJ and GRIII bear out. If you're not an athletic marvel, your draft grade is fairly low and you would be one of the stars of the team, it makes sense to come back as a big season can push you up the ranks pretty quick.
For the two players contemplating leaving early this year, they almost certainly should come back. Especially Iggy, as he would likely be the go-to player for a top-10 Michigan team. I could easily see him having that Burke/Stauskas second year bump.
Iggy- Wrong
Poole- Wrong, wrong
I just hope they return. I would put them in the left too early category.
Any player that has the talent to eventually play in the NBA should leave as soon as they can. Whatever improvement the player can experience in college, he can improve a whole lot more playing professionally in NBA or G League. You improve by playing more and you play more in the G League. There are some players who have the talent, but just don't work hard enough or get discouraged if they end up in the G League. But if they have the talent to play at the NBA level, they should leave right away. They make some money, play and train at a much higher level.
What's the difference between Returned and Improved Draft Stock and Got It Just Right? Like DJ Wilson returned after his freshman year despite wanting originally to be a one-and-done. It's also hard to say for sure if someone left too early, who is to say that Manny Harris moves up the draft boards with another year?
I consider it a function of opportunity. DJ Wilson did not have the prospects to leave early after his first two seasons given that he played 4.8 and 6.1 minutes per game those first two seasons. Once he received some run in his junior year he capitalized and made the right choice given that he went mid-first round.
Seems like the "Got It Just Right" group didn't even have a chance to leave earlier than they did.
Even though the "Returned and Improved" group also did get it just right, they at least had a reasonable chance to leave earlier.
Was definitely the right time for Matthews to leave. I doubt he would’ve improved his stock at all by coming back for another year. He kind of is what he is at this point, and another year older next year would be another dent on his resume, in a league that values 18-19 year old athletic superstars. Being 20+ in the league almost requires you to carry their version of an AARP card.
For Iggy, I can see it. I think he would’ve benefitted from another year, as he would’ve been the go-to guy, but he’s an already an old man from an NBA standpoint. I understand him wanting to go.
Poole....not too sure. His choice his life, but he really didn’t have the year we all thought he should. He’s probably got the most NBA “potential and upside” of the three of them, but after the year he had, I have a tough time seeing him get drafted. Much less getting a first round guaranteed contract. If he gets drafted, it’s probably because he has an incredible combine showing and someone drafts him based off his potential.
Best of luck to all three of them.
I think the Poole situation is a lot simpler than a lot of people are making it. He is/was not happy in the system and he did not want to be here anymore. I am quite sure that Poole shares his thoughts with his father. His father tweeted specifically that it was "time to go." Nobody is questioning that Poole has talent, but it became pretty damn clear this year that it was not a fit, for him or Beilein.
I don't really expect Poole to return even if he is not drafted. I don't really think that Beilein is going to be waiting by the phone either. Look at the statement he released, those are carefully worded and vetted.
[Me and my family] are prepared to look at all options and make the right decision for the next step of my playing career.
He gone.
I agree with this. It seems clear to me at least that Poole doesn't want to be here anymore for whatever the reason. There were clues like you mention, and also the way he was playing (being inconsistent/distracted and having to be sat for a while on the bench). This is why Beilein needs to find someone to replace him ASAP and assume he's not coming back. It's really too bad - both for Michigan and Poole. He's not ready for the NBA and it probably won't go well for him. But everyone has to make their own decision. I do hope I'm wrong.
I think Poole could have benefited from another year under Beilein but only if he was willing to be coachable and that is something he's struggled with.
https://www.michigandaily.com/section/mens-basketball/jordan-poole-john-beilein-growth
I agree that Poole doesn't come back either way. I thought, and still think, a transfer to Butler is the most likely destination since Coach Jordan was his recruiter.
I think it's great that they all will test the water and if they can get paid that's great for them. Matthews may as well take the $. Iggy has no game between the 3 point line and the rim, but maybe he learns it while getting paid.
Poole just seems too slight of frame to play in a league full of grown men with beards. He's listed at 6'4" 195 last I saw. I'm 6'1" and don't think he was either of those after being near to him. I'd guess him to be in the 180's.
Good luck to all.
I actually think Matthew's might have been better leaving last year, on the heels of a NC title game. He didnt significantly improve this year, just got a year older.
Manny Harris I think left at the right time. It's hard to measure him given his career ending freak injury.
One could easily argue that Harris left a year too late as well. He had a great Sophomore year. Didn't improve his Junior year. Dropped in the draft and risked getting injured.
“but he’s an already an old man from an NBA standpoint.”
So nobody plays in the NBA past the age of 20?
.gif)
Somebody better let Vince Carter know that he should have retired in his rookie year then. Clearly, he has done it wrong.
or jamal crawford. 51 pts last night!
April 10th, 2019 at 11:12 PM ^
Nobody is old enough to spray champagne around the locker room after they win the title. I miss the old days.
Iggy and Poole both really need to come back.
For Iggy, he absolutely needs another year to develop his defense and his passing game. He is a very good scorer, but if he cannot play defense, and does not learn how to effectively move the ball, he isn't going to stick in the league. There are tons of 6'7" guys who can shoot fairly well, and Iggy's offense isn't so dominant that an NBA team is going to look past his deficiencies. He will get drafted, but is headed for the G League initially.
For Poole, he has great athleticism, but (a) really struggles to create his own shot, especially against better defenders; (b) is a defensive and rebounding liability; and (c) really needs to develop a better court sense. Again, are teams going to look past all of these limitations because he is very athletic? I would posit that there are a ton of really athletic guys out there. I fear that if Poole is drafted, it will be late second round, and he will spend some time in the G League.
Yea, we are a top 5 defensive outfit despite having a guy who is a straight up liability.
Gtfo with this notion Poole is bad defensively (not sure how any metrics would have him as a rebounding liability, either)
I think Poole is fine defensively, just compared to everyone else he was the weak link. But then again we were top 3 defense sooooo...
I think Iggy will get drafted in the late first or early second round and be fine. He was pretty solid defensively this year, but I think in the NBA he's going to find out that he is too slow to guard 3s and too small to guard 4s, so he will be a bit of a tweener defensively. Offensively, his most glaring flaws are his tunnel vision when driving, his poor passing, and the lack of a midrange game. However, I don't think those are biggest flaws in the world. Do I think he could come back and work his way to being a mid first round pick? Yes. Do I think he will return? No
Here’s one for ya. Isaiah Livers will be the best pro to play under Beilein at Michigan. Size, athleticism, shooting ability. Put that in your pipe and smoke it.
That's a pretty big statement, especially with Hardaways decent NBA career. I feel Hardaway was light years ahead of Livers at this point in his career...and I'm a huge lover's fan.
Hardaway was not light years ahead of Livers after his sophomore year. He actually had a pretty bad sophomore year. He shot 28% from three that season! And Hardaway never played defense (still doesn't).
Livers is a lights out shooter, good athlete and great defender. This isn't even a hot take or even a new one. The Matt D guy from endless motor thinks Livers is the best pro prospect (or maybe that he'll have the longest NBA career or something) on Michigan's current team (over Poole, Iggy and Matthews).
I disagree about him being a good defender. He picks up a ton of fouls. Let's see next year when his usage is higher. Either his defense is going to drop or he's going to be spending a lot of time on the bench in foul trouble.
levert may be a year away from being an nba all star
I think Livers could be a pretty solid 3 and D player at the NBA level. It's looking like Levert will end up being the best Beilein NBA player imo
Darius Morris earned over $3 million in the NBA. I'm not sure he got it "wrong."
It's impossible to say, really. Who is to say whether or not Morris returns, injures himself and never earns those 3 million dollars. Why does the default for so many here to be presuming that all of these guys will improve if they return?
I think Iggy's stock could improve with another year of Beilein coaching, but I think even his best case scenario sees him rise to a late first rounder. Even with that bump it's possible - if he has the chops to play in the NBA and actually stick around - that he ends up earning more going a year early in the second round. We'll never know what could've been under any scenario, but all of these guys are at least going to get a chance in the NBA. If that's the case, even when leaving early is the "wrong" option, it's probably not a "bad" decision.
Also, I say this as someone who loves Poole - but I'm not sure why people think he'll improve his stock in another year. Poole is Poole. Looking at his interactions with Beilein on the sideline this season and his general quality of play, I'm not sure he's the type of player that is particularly conducive to being coached up. He seems - for better and for worse - to be the type of player that is going to go as far as his talents and hard work take him. If that's the case, then he probably is better off leaving now while he's younger and has more potential.
You are correct Tim. The last place Poole should be playing basketball is in college. It's way too restrictive for his game and talents. The NBA is suited to what he wants to do (showtime) and bombing away. This is the NBA. See Curry and others. The NBA is about launching 22 ft shots.
Poole is going to be playing either in the NBA, the G league or abroad. I'll bet anyone here on this board that college basketball is not even a remote consideration. Poole is basically a combination of Curry, Jamal Crawford and Reggie Miller all wrapped into one but not nearly as good....yet. Expect him to work on his game and make an appearance in the NBA down the line.
I believe that. For all the criticism of Poole, he did improve and he is very young.
The NBA is about launching 22 ft shots that mostly go in.
FIFY
Ha, this was funny. Way to go sir.
The thing is, he did improve, but the ways in which he improved were the exact opposite of what you assert he does well or what he thinks he does well. He improved when he was patient offensively, he improved by cutting and slashing and scoring off assists, he improved by positioning himself correctly at the arc for kick out passes for open looks.
Because Poole likes to take step back threes, we assume that he is good at it, or is ever going to be good at it. But when did he ever make one? It was his worse impulse, not because Beilein does not like them (Burke, Stauskus, Walton, they were step back 3 guys all day), but because Poole sucked at shooting them.
I think he has the talent to be NBA player, but he has not shown me one thing that makes me think it will ever be in a Steph Curry mold. It looks like he wants to have that kind of game but I haven't seen any indication that he actually has it.
He did make some step-backs. He hit a beauty against Florida. It was probably under 30% though, maybe well under, which isn't good enough to be taking them with frequency (but is good enough late shot clock).
I think a lot of the season snowballed on Poole as well. I think he had very high expectations, and I think a lot of people had high expectations for him. Then he struggled and started pressing. Once he started pressing, things only got worse because he forced some shots.
Poole is still a talented player. When he played within his role and within his comfort zone he was a huge asset to the team and to himself. But at some point he looked like he was trying to force confidence, and that almost always backfires. He struggled this season. There is an alternate universe where he didn't and he is probably a no-brainer NBA player because it does look like a lot of that talent is there (he has a nice looking shot, he's demonstrated he is a capable shooter and athlete, and has good length as well). This just wasn't his year, and I wish all sides understood the pressure he was under and that with an off season, things can look drastically different in a similar role just by regaining his confidence and not feeling he has to press.
My two cents on Poole anyway.
The expectations for Poole were clearly too high. I thought he had a solid year and is improving. The question in my mind is whether Poole gets better playing in some other league or under JB. I think the answer is the former because Poole is fundamentally a NBA flashy player.
I think he should go. Not because he is ready to make a roster but that the G league or abroad will allow his game to flourish and be himself. I think he is frustrated doing college things when his game has NBA written all over it at least style wise.
If what I saw happen this year happens next year vs grown ass men its going to be rough. No team that did anything in the tourney plays hero ball. Its a good way to lose a job as a couch to be honest. What Poole wants to do and what wins in basketball are two different things. He will put up some points in the G league or overseas. I surely wish him the best and seems like a good kid. Him and Iggy both have those All Star game -games.
The dissing of Poole by the fans remains sadly humorous. My disclaimer here is that I believe the kid is wonderfully talented. From the development side, whether he should stay or leave is a mixed bag for me. Trying to put myself in Jordan's shoes though, I think I would believe that I have had a lifetime quota of possessions that went: X walks the ball over the time line just as the clock ticks to 20; at 15 Teske comes out to set a screen; X drives toward the lane and at 10 kicks it out to Teske who takes 5 seconds to decide whether or not he is open...decides no and passes to Poole with 5...Jordan is 35 feet from the basket and is now facing a double-team because the defense knows there is only 5 seconds left on the shot-clock; Jordan is left to save everyone-by himself...misses a long three he is forced to take under duress...fans scream/boo "HERO BALL"...3 pt. percentage goes in the toilet..."He's pathetic!!!" This is "countered" by Jordan missing a three with 15 seconds on the clock "HERO BALL!!!"...yeah right-obviously he should have waited until someone passed him the ball with 3 seconds on the clock! The kid has been placed in a lose-lose situation with no relief in sight...including next year. Jordan will likely get drafted...who knows how high or low. I do not doubt though that his perspective here includes, "I can't do this another year; I am not doing this another year...I have options."
Iggy's story is not that dissimilar. "He doesn't pass the ball!!!" Who the hell is he supposed to pass it to? Poole is being face-guarded/denied the ball and the other three are in masonry school.
Michigan massively over-achieved this year because of the talent Poole and Iggy brought to the table. It is difficult to know exactly how good they are but they are "very good". Here, it was either they make a play under duress or the other three scored because of the defensive attention these two were drawing. Clearly the opposition had this figured out down the stretch. Sure, in a perfect world this is a team game and they should just buck up, suck up their egos and be thankful. It's not a perfect world. I will be very surprised if either wanders back to Michigan.
As things stand, I believe that next year is going to be quite the struggle...they will need to win with defense like never before. But by the end of the year the new kids on the block will likely be playing well enough to get them back into contention-could possibly make noise in the B1G tourney. We will see.
Thank you for summing up the ridiculous nature of the fans shitting on Poole this year...the examples of how our offense operated too many times are spot on. Has the kid taken a bad shot before?! Sure as hell, yes...as has EVERY BASKETBALL PLAYER, EVER.
outside, I agree totally with what you said about Poole, but disagree about Iggy.
There were many, many times this year when Iggy attacked the rim, ran into doubles, and had clear passing options that would have led to layups - Matthews or Teske lurking near the key, or kick-outs to Livers or Poole or even Simpson waiting beyond the arc.
It's possible they would have missed those shots, but it was still often the right play, and a better choice than trying to power up through a double-team.
This was a glaring hole in Iggy's game, and one that is correctable with effort/practice. I believe in Coach Beilein's player development skills, and feel confident Iggy would have improved greatly as a passer if he stayed.
Iggy is a tantalizing pro prospect because he can shoot and use both hands near the rim; he also has some major issues regarding size, quickness and court vision.
IMO, a 21 year old Iggy with monster stats as Michigan's #1 option and improved passing/court vision is a better prospect than today's 20y.o. Iggy.
April 10th, 2019 at 10:38 PM ^
Darius only got it right if he still has at least $2M of that money left.
I think Poole goes undrafted and returns. But I really don't understand why either of these guys are so willing to be drafted in the 2nd round when both could return for one more season, win a NCAA title, and play themselves into real big money contracts
Poole is only a sophomore and like DJ Wilson if he returns for his 3rd year and balls out he could go late 1st round
Iggy is easily good enough to play himself into the 1st round after 1 more season. He averaged like 15ppg on 40%3pt. If he returned he could lead Michigan to a title and average 20ppg on 45%3pt shooting
This is a Michigancentric response that does not really take in the realities for each player. While I hate to speculate on Poole's relationship with the university/team/coaches, the major smoke is that he is not happy at Michigan. Why would he return if he were not happy? With his upside I am willing to bet that he has a very good combine and is drafted in the early 2nd round, maybe even late first if, say, the Warriors see him as a facsimile of Klay, who is going to test the market.
Iggy coming back to be "the man" on a title team would be him banking on two things that are largely out of his control, both being "the man" - he did that this year and his draft status isn't great and he'll be 21 by the draft next year - and winning a title, which is something that Michigan has done once in its 100+ years of basketball. Will he be drafted at all? Who knows. But if he isn't he can come back and try and be "the man" anyway. It behooves him to test the waters and see how it goes.
April 11th, 2019 at 12:31 AM ^
More than likely Poole gets drafted in the 2nd round. Too much potential and he has the NBA type game. Someone may draft him earlier. Regardless, he does have the ability to develop. I did check his stats and they pretty much reflect his frosh year but with a bigger sample size.
My point is not that Poole is going to be a star out of the gate but that he has the talent to be a star. That being said, after 2 years of consistently average numbers he is going to have improve the numbers which aren't bad but not that good.
He may actually be more effective with a different offensive system at his disposal. He reminds me of a Aaron Rodgers/Kobe Bryant in that he likes to make spectacular plays and shots and would not do as well in a confined system. Rodgers is more Elway and less Brady. Poole is more Kobe and less Steve Kerr.
Poole is a guy who never met a shot he didn't like.
I don't think Morris was going to improve more as a shooter or where he was weak. If his goal was "maximize money", he probably left at the correct time, regardless of not sticking around too long in the NBA. Manny Harris was a JR, so his draft stock likely wasn't really changing either, and despite not getting drafted (partially because of pre-draft injuries) he had a short NBA career and probably maximized his earnings (he may even fit in the category of came back and hurt his stock, he almost certainly would have been drafted had he left as an underclassman.
Agree that injuries hurt LeVert's options. He would have left and been drafted high after his JR year, but had a lot to gain by coming back, only to get hurt again. I'd argue those that left and came back got it just right as well.
Iggy will probably be drafted at a decent spot. Teams will like his attitude.
Not sure about Poole. Hes got a high upside though with his shooting.
Regardless - Duncan Robinson just signed for 3.1 Million Dollars at age 24. He didn't get drafted.
Cannot blame these kids for wanting to chase that $$$$
if i am a gm, i would take a flyer on poole late in the 2nd round. the game is in there. that said, he has a chance to make a stauskus leap if he stays. most of us were hoping for that this year. it just didn't happen. the offense could be run through him, like stauskus. if he improves his handle and decision making, he should be UM's leading scorer, first team all big ten and a possible first round pick.
it's obviously his choice, but i think he has a real chance at improving his draft position by a lot.
I mean I think Levert got it right given where he was drafted regardless of injury
There are many here who are much better at evaluating a player's NBA readiness. But I didn't see anything from Iggy that would lead me to believe, "Yep, this guy is ready for the League." I genuinely hope I'm wrong, and I hope he gets drafted high, has a great NBA career, and makes a ton of money.
Re: McGary, it feels like - if anything - he should have stuck around another year which would have helped him (of course, he wasn't likely to have that option, so maybe he deserves a new category for 'ideally, should have come back, but was not in a position to do so').
Had high hopes for matthews this year. Of anyone, I'd take Iggy 2 times. Poole did end up 2nd leading scorer and 2nd in assists. From the eye test, I'd say Iggy has Iggy has the "it" factor over the others.