@SpaceCoyoteBDS with the definitive ohio state takedown
coyote used to come around here quite a bit, but i haven’t seen him for a while…he almost always comes with realistic, specific analysis (as opposed to feelingsball, which also has real value). anyway, bullets:
- seeming lack of game prep
- lack of confidence in the strengths they did have (power running game, improving offensive line)
- lack of recognition of limitations of the available players
twitter thread, here:
https://x.com/spacecoyotebds/status/1740952903450571110?s=61&t=RXc5fcpfiPJBICMYVeRaBA
December 30th, 2023 at 7:46 AM ^
They focus heavily on the passing game with loads of 5 star receivers. Take away their passer and you get last night...
It is mind boggling that they have no plan b or c. The luxury of being OSU is incredible.
December 30th, 2023 at 8:34 AM ^
Makes you wonder how good Day really as an OC. Seems like hes pretty sharp when it comes to drawing up stuff for his WRs but what does the guy need? Does he need an NFL QB and a few 1st round WRs to be able to score double digits? Because that 3 points was sad. Dude has been extremely one dimensional for a while and its fun to watch everyone nationally see it get worse.
if you give Day average talent is he even an average FBS coach? I don’t see how he could ever be an NFL HC
December 30th, 2023 at 9:23 AM ^
For all of the (rightful) anger/disgust people have for Art Briles, what he did at Baylor near the end of his tenure (2015) was a true show of coaching brilliance. During the regular season that team had been scoring in droves with a high octane passing game (300+ yards nearly every game) and looking like the Baylor of RGIII. After injuries had taken out QB1 and even QB2, the same method was still winning (just not as prolific). Yet by the end of the season the attrition was too much (down to QBs 4 & 5 and also down a few WR). Briles and staff regrouped and recognized the limitations of the available players... and within a week or two completely changed over to an all-rungame offense that was rushing for 200-300+ yards per game.
December 30th, 2023 at 10:10 AM ^
He's James Franklin
December 30th, 2023 at 10:43 AM ^
John Calipari.
December 30th, 2023 at 10:06 AM ^
Ryan Day has had the luxury of having a stud QB play entire seasons without injury. He also keeps his starting QB late into games to I assume pad stats and therefore never get the backup and meaningful reps. Even McCord stayed in games this year far too long. Brown getting hurt last night was unexpected but I am not shocked when both Brown and the freshman came out and looked average at best. For having a month to prepare for a team, that game was one of the worst I have seen OSU play in a very long time. Their D looked good, but Missouri’s passing game was so inept that multiple teams in the B1G could have produced similar results.
December 30th, 2023 at 10:43 AM ^
Their D looked good until a very mediocre Mizu team wore them down. They couldn’t put up a battle in the 4th Quarter, giving up two 90+ drives. Sound familiar?
December 30th, 2023 at 10:47 AM ^
That's an excellent defense, I think top-2. But they don't have a lot of depth, which they get away with when their offense works but the three-and-outs last night took a big toll.
(I don't know where your line is for "very mediocre" but Missouri's offense rates just ahead of Alabama in oFEI.)
December 30th, 2023 at 10:15 AM ^
Another M "had their plays." Sign "gates"
December 30th, 2023 at 11:14 AM ^
Lincoln K. has a pop gun arm. It is clear as day. Not sure about Brown's arm either.
Prediction: Lincoln K. is going to throw a lot of hospital passes and interceptions with the amount of air he puts under the ball. Going to get OSU 5 star receivers killed. And I think it is plausible he might have small hands based on how he throws, which means, if you increase/max the ball size (which you can do in CFB) against him on the road, he might seriously be in trouble (unless he is still growing). That being said, I don't think he ever sees the field again for OSU and hits the portal at some point. They might be down to 1 injury prone unproven QB with no O-line, no running game and talented receivers they can't get the ball to outside of gimmicks.
Can you imagine being a 5 star receiver looking at that last night. Sure you are big and fast, but they can't get you the ball and you are looking at full rebuilding mode on the entire interior and coaching ranks.
December 30th, 2023 at 5:15 PM ^
Urban Meyer won a natty with a 3rd string QB.
OSU is littered with 5 star talent. Yes it hurts to lose you QB and all-everything WR, but they should certainly be good enough to put up more than three damn points against Missouri. I mean, sure, Missouri has a decent defense (#33), but like, I'd think a supposed "elite offensive mind" could manage better than that.
December 30th, 2023 at 7:58 AM ^
It’s hard to bring in loads of 5 star receivers and then start pounding the run game all the time. Then there really would be dissension amongst the players.
December 30th, 2023 at 10:21 AM ^
You mean like how we can't get 5 star receivers since we're so dedicated to the run?
December 30th, 2023 at 8:19 AM ^
holy crud, thank you for posting that. that link is absolute gold. a 1:55 comedy bit that is hysterical.
December 30th, 2023 at 8:48 AM ^
For those that don't care to venture to Twitter (for there are a few people on the board who do not, I believe):
December 30th, 2023 at 9:44 AM ^
Thanks for posting! I'll click the occasional link to the Twits (including this one), but don't have an account - and won't ever get one. A lot of the comments are lost on me because they don't seem to reference the tweet very often. It's hard to follow the comment section after the first 4 or 5...
December 30th, 2023 at 10:07 AM ^
The decline in quality of comment threads is one of the biggest results from Musk taking over. Twitter was obviously never a font of enlightened public discourse, but once it started selling blue checks, it destroyed the occasionally interesting discussion that would occur because the immediate replies all became Musk fanboys, weird self-promoters, and crypto Nazis (those categories are not mutually exclusive, obviously).
December 30th, 2023 at 8:14 AM ^
The offense was built on McCord to Maserati and then setting up decoys around it. Michigan was able to slow down McCord and Maserati and hold on to a victory. Mizzou didn't have to stop McCord or Maserati. Or Fleming for that matter. Egbuka is a talented receiver but not the caliber of some of the others from recent years. Stover was not a factor - I think he may have been injured. Third Base learned that that quarterback who got beat out is not going to outperform the one who started 12 games. Put in the freshman and out goes all the trick plays Third Base had planned to show off his genius. That offense wouldn't have scored against us and would have lost to PSU and Maryland as well.
December 30th, 2023 at 8:28 AM ^
If Mizzou played Iowa, the game would've been pretty much identical
December 30th, 2023 at 9:52 AM ^
While I think it's great, I have a hard time indicting Day for losing with a deep bench true freshman QB thrust into the game. That said, why was the kid not more ready to play? He had a full month to get reps in practices and outside 'official' drills (even Michigan does that). He had plenty of time to get a decent amount of snaps with the starters, just for fun. Devin Brown, being #2 all year, should not have needed all the snaps to get ready - Tuttle can step in and take over today, if he had to. He's ready. He's not JJ, but he's ready. And I don't think #3 is that far behind to look like OSU last night. Holy shit that was bad!
Anyway, Day's pass game is advanced NFL level. But I don't think he's got more than that one trick in his egg basket.
December 30th, 2023 at 10:13 AM ^
Why does Day’s defense get gassed in the fourth quarter? It’s the same answer. He doesn’t trust his depth. With all of that 5-star talent on the roster, you’d think he’d be able to patch together a decent offense even with some backups, and he’d be able to spell the defensive starters occasionally so they would still be effective in the fourth quarter.
December 30th, 2023 at 10:25 AM ^
How can you not blame day? He has a 1st round running back, a fully intact offensive line, a never ending string of 4/5 star receivers, a QB room full of highly regarded recruits he choose and a month to prepare. And the result was an embarrassment. I’m not saying he’s a terrible coach, but last night was a terrible coaching performance.
December 30th, 2023 at 11:30 AM ^
You should go watch Lincoln's recruiting tape.
December 30th, 2023 at 3:36 PM ^
poor QB play makes sense - tough situation to have to play #2 then #3 vs a good team. what doesnt make sense is the OL struggling to ID and work together. while not excellent this year, they were pretty solid. its one thing to get ripped thru or slip off a LB you correctly targeted. its another to play like 5 individuals, repeatedly allowing 2nd level defenders to run free.
hopefully the DT hall jumps to the nfl, if hes eligible. he was disruptive vs michigan and was clearly one of the best players on the field last night. not the kind of talent you want playing vs 3 new interior starters next year
December 30th, 2023 at 8:14 AM ^
Maserati didn't get injured so things did go according to plan.
December 30th, 2023 at 9:55 AM ^
It's time to put the old Maserati away.
December 30th, 2023 at 8:15 AM ^
Solid recap.
Many of us were saying the same things in the game thread.
Their offense was like a roulette of plays. Random. On two separate series they got something going with a variety of run plays using Henderson and #0 (Johnson?)...and then they would randomly go away from it, it's 2nd and 10 and the drive stalls out.
That thing that allows Sherrone Moore to calls 30+ run plays, OSU just doesn't have.
And yes, their offense did suck for the first half of the season...and then by the time they got to Penn State, they basically said, "fuck it, Harrison is our offense."
I remember watching that game and watching them force the ball to MHJ and they were actually moving the ball, I thought, "this is going to be their thing, isn't it?" Sure enough, they kept doing it in every game after that, jump balls, crossing routes, they were running reverses with him...everything was on the table.
It's why I couldn't figure out a way that they would beat Michigan...it just seemed obvious, take Harrison away as best you can and watch them melt. If he scores once, it's fine.
The INT at the end was no surprise, whenever McCord got into any trouble he just launched it in the direction of MHJ. And again, sometimes the guy would come down with it. It is what made the play earlier on that drive so infuriating...how TF does Minter call a Tampa 2 where our CBs are more worried about a check down to a RB in the flat over Marvin Harrison Jr. and the chunk play? Argh!!!
With Harrison and McCord out, I figured...okay, now they'll just feature Henderson and the QB run game. But there was never a focus or identity. #33 Brown gets injured and it was a wrap.
They had every opportunity to just run the ball (with the RBs) with a true freshman at QB in and an OL that couldn't pass block, but it's like they just said, "nope, run the offense." Egbuka became the new MHJ and got a bunch of targets, but he's not MHJ - and the freshman wasn't McCord. It's like they forgot they were WINNING the game.
Another thing I noticed, they're going to miss Fleming and that 5* freshman will start from day one. In this game it was Egbuka, Tate was alright...and a bunch of "YIKES." If Egbuka leaves, they're fucked.
OSU is starting to feel like Clemson. When they have a generational talent...they're fine and they'll maximize that player. But if they have to coach and strategize and develop...you get nothing more than a team full of underwhelming 5*'s who flash in spots, but aren't anything you can build around.
They have no foundation. They could never build an offense around Cade McNamara and Hassan Haskins (who was a fantastic college player, but no one is confusing him for a Najee Harris type 5* that is pro from the day they get to campus as a freshman).
Michigan built something sustainable and then upgraded the talent. OSU got the talent, and now that they don't have it...they've got nothing to fall back on.
December 30th, 2023 at 8:44 AM ^
That thing that allows Sherrone Moore to calls 30+ run plays, OSU just doesn't have.
A dominant OL
They could never build an offense around Cade McNamara and Hassan Haskins
ibid.
December 30th, 2023 at 8:56 AM ^
It's QB play, look at us before JJ. Rudock was pretty good, so we were pretty good.
Speight before injury was pretty good, and therefore kept that team from reaching it's full potential
O'korn was.........so we were..........
Shea was inconsistent, so was our team
Etc
December 30th, 2023 at 11:32 AM ^
It is O Line in many ways too. A full functioning interior.
December 30th, 2023 at 11:48 AM ^
One other observation I noticed. During a timeout in the second half the cameras zoomed in on the OSU sideline huddle and Cade Stover was ripping into his teammates while Day stood to the side. My immediate impression was that Day had lost control of his team. I could envision that scene with Harbaugh or Moore.
December 30th, 2023 at 12:40 PM ^
Typo: could? Meant, could not?
December 30th, 2023 at 12:02 PM ^
Excellent analysis. And everytime I see/read Najee Harris, I sigh and drink and think of what might have been if he had come to Michigan. Soooooo close.
December 30th, 2023 at 1:58 PM ^
I found out from Eleven Warriors that the starting center (Hinzman) was held out. It apparently had something to do with an interview he gave that told too much truth - an interview that apparently never aired because OSU squashed it. Anyhow this resulted in a player being moved to center who had very limited experience there. And it showed. OSU could not setup protections all game long on passing plays. Run blocking was inconsistent at best. Asked after the game why Hinzman didn’t play, Day said “he practiced poorly” or some other throw away comment and wouldn’t talk further. That seems like an unlikely reason.
December 30th, 2023 at 8:17 AM ^
Expected a slump in QB play but that drop off was impressive. Mostly was surprised and delighted with how abysmal their OL looked all game. They didn’t play that bad against M.
Their starting C was suspended, which explains some of their communication lapses and missed blocks - but it’s also a failure of the position coach to have the guys ready for a change up. Apparently, it’s believed the reason for the suspension was that this C, Hinzman, was trashing the OSU NIL program in a podcast interview. But that’s just internet speculation…
Anyhoo, the future is bright! Start planning the takeover in the horse trough next year.
December 30th, 2023 at 11:15 AM ^
The frequency and speed in which Mizzou's d-line was getting to the qb was stunning to watch.
December 30th, 2023 at 8:21 AM ^
A team full of blue chip 5 stars beaten by a rb with no D1 offers.
December 30th, 2023 at 8:57 AM ^
I wonder where Missouri got that formula? As I’ve said repeatedly You can’t just turn it on with some late season practices when it isn’t how you play all year. Which is why the service academies are so tough to play due to their schemes nobody else practices for until the week of.
December 30th, 2023 at 9:11 AM ^
Ryan Day's downfall was very predictable. Having an offense reliant on an elite qb play looks great when you have one. You're not always going to have one though. There will be misses. Load up on o line and d line to increase your chances of being dominant on the line of scrimmage and then you can still have success if your qb can't carry the offense. Having an air raid style of play in Midwest weather never made much sense to me either. October and November bring some weather into the equation. Like you stated, you can't just flip a switch to lean on the run game when the pass game isn't in sync.
December 30th, 2023 at 10:01 AM ^
Which is why I doubt we'll see and play action or Edwards in space features Monday evening... And I has a sad for it.
December 30th, 2023 at 10:11 AM ^
I think we will see some heavy play action. Not sure about Edwards though. I love his ability with the ball in space but he's not a willing blocker in pass pro IMO. Kind of tips your hand when he enters the game. Can't whiff on your chip blocks against Bama edge rushers. I think Michigan's staff has made good in game adjustments in the past, so that trend should continue. Everyone has new wrinkles for these games with the long layoff, some will be ineffective.
December 30th, 2023 at 8:59 AM ^
Outside of a Michigan victory, there is nothing sweeter than watching Ohio State flail for 60 minutes and get pounded by vastly inferior talent. You do NOT hate to see it!
December 30th, 2023 at 8:59 AM ^
I did not see the game, so I wonder: did the Ohio State players seem motivated? Or did they appear to view this game as a waste of their time? It's a serious question because it gets to the underlying culture of the program. If the OSU players showed up with the attitude of simply going through the motions, then it's an indicator of something amiss at the core of their culture.
December 30th, 2023 at 9:15 AM ^
OSU started the game looking like they were there to win a game, but thier qb and o line play took that hope away. Thier defense was very impressive, but ran out of gas.
December 30th, 2023 at 9:54 AM ^
Thanks! In many ways, I'm happy to read this. I say that for two reasons:
- As others have noted, a diminished Ohio State program is not good for Michigan; a strong Ohio State compels us to be stronger, and it provides for a great rivalry tradition.
- One of the valuable aspects of team sports is the learning of valuable life lessons, such as teamwork, and doing one's best in the fact of obstacles and setbacks. Harbaugh is a master at teaching this, and I would want every program to instill this in their players because it's good for the young men playing the game.
Sometimes the stars don't align for a victory. I'm happy to read the young men on OSU fought hard. It's a good thing.
December 30th, 2023 at 10:15 AM ^
A down Michigan didn't harm OSU one ounce. I doubt a down OSU hurts Michigan in the slightest.
December 30th, 2023 at 10:31 AM ^
If anything it likely HELPS us as it probably opens the door for a whole bunch of Ohio kids that would otherwise never be on the table.
December 30th, 2023 at 11:02 AM ^
I don’t agree DonAZ.
I would enjoy seeing OSU sprinkle in a few 7-5 seasons and especially with the 12 team playoff and new teams in the conference it wouldn’t change a thing for Michigan.