S&P+ Predicts Week 6 Games (including Michigan-NU)
Bear in mind the overall success rate is just above 50%.
But still nice to see S&P+ gives us an 83% chance of winning and projects a 16.5 pt. margin-of-victory.
Also nice: S&P+ predicts Navy will beat Notre Dame by 6.7.
October 8th, 2015 at 4:41 PM ^
Actually looks like it says Notre Dame will win but Navy beats the spread. Sorry for the letdown (on these hypothetical projections).
October 8th, 2015 at 4:45 PM ^
What was S&P's prediction for the Utah and BYU games?
Also, if its success rate is 50%, then why is it "nice to see" it pick us to win? Makes no sense.
October 8th, 2015 at 4:54 PM ^
October 8th, 2015 at 4:45 PM ^
"success rate just about 50%"
What does that mean? Number of games in which winner is correctly picked? Or are they going against the spread? I hope so, because 50% straight up would be pretty miserable.
October 8th, 2015 at 4:56 PM ^
I sure would hope spread too....
October 8th, 2015 at 5:18 PM ^
that's against the spread. For outright wins they call in the 80-89% win range, they are 65-11 (85%).
October 8th, 2015 at 5:24 PM ^
80-89%? That's incredibly high. Impressive if true.
October 8th, 2015 at 10:05 PM ^
October 9th, 2015 at 4:35 PM ^
Which is exactly what the guy just said. The pick is against the spread but the 65-11 record is just outright picks of projections in the 80-89% range. What I take out of it is they are 65-11 when picking the easier outright wins to call, but what is interesting is that they think the UM NU game is one of those easy games to call.
October 8th, 2015 at 5:47 PM ^
50% of the time it works every time.
October 8th, 2015 at 4:47 PM ^
for our perusal.
October 8th, 2015 at 4:49 PM ^
look for hyperlinks so you can peruse
October 9th, 2015 at 11:58 AM ^
I have a privacy screen on my computer screen due to work requirements. I couldn't tell that was a different color.
My bad.
October 8th, 2015 at 4:50 PM ^
He did, click on where it says S&P in blue.
October 8th, 2015 at 4:50 PM ^
There's a hover link
October 8th, 2015 at 4:49 PM ^
Nice to see that OSU is predicted to beat Maryland at home by less than Michigan did on the road and not beat the spread.
October 8th, 2015 at 4:53 PM ^
Just above 50% is way better than a coin flip! We are so gonna win.
October 8th, 2015 at 4:53 PM ^
So as I see this......when they project a win percentage between 80-89%, they are right 85.3% of the time.....so there's a 85.3% chance that they're right picking us to win. Yes, no, maybe....
October 8th, 2015 at 4:57 PM ^
success last week. I would hope they get better as teh season goes on though... maybe, maybe not?
edit - I read that wrong; you were right! woot we are going to win! (maybe)
October 8th, 2015 at 6:43 PM ^
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October 8th, 2015 at 5:28 PM ^
A 16-ish point win against Northwestern would be nice, I will say that. A lot of other sites - obviously, different predictive mechanisms - are actually a little more conservative in their estimate. TeamRankings, for example, has Michigan by a predicted score of 21-14 (rounded, their mean estimate was 21.2-13.8). Massey has their score prediction where some of us perhaps jokingly put it earlier in the week 10-7 in fave of Michigan.
October 8th, 2015 at 5:34 PM ^
October 8th, 2015 at 9:16 PM ^
I'll piss on my hat and eat it warm if Navy is anywhere near ND this weekend.
October 8th, 2015 at 9:55 PM ^
October 9th, 2015 at 11:10 AM ^
Then I think when I speak for all of us when I say, Go Navy and vid or it didn't happen.
October 8th, 2015 at 5:36 PM ^
October 8th, 2015 at 5:44 PM ^
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October 8th, 2015 at 5:50 PM ^
and 50% luck. - Yogi Berra
October 8th, 2015 at 6:03 PM ^
This is ten percent luck, twenty percent skill
Fifteen percent concentrated power of will
Five percent pleasure, fifty percent pain
And a hundred percent reason to remember the name
October 8th, 2015 at 7:17 PM ^
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October 8th, 2015 at 7:51 PM ^
Michigan offense practices against the #2 (soon to be #1) offense in the nation. They should be very afraid.
We will be drinking mead from their broken helmets and enjoy the wailing of their wildcat women.
October 8th, 2015 at 9:02 PM ^
What is best in life?
To crush your enemies, to see them driven before you, and to hear the lamentations of their women.
October 8th, 2015 at 9:50 PM ^
October 8th, 2015 at 9:50 PM ^
October 8th, 2015 at 11:41 PM ^
I'm not a huge sports bettor, but I'm pretty sure being right 53% of the time vs Vegas would be pretty good long term.