Scenarios where UM wins Big Ten Regular season championship (aka rooting guide '12)
With only 3-4 games left in the regular season, I started wondering if there is a realistic possibility we win the regular season title.
Currently MSU hold a 1/2 game lead over UM and OSU.
| Michigan | Michigan State | Ohio State |
| Purdue | Minnestoa | Wisconsin |
| @ Illinois | Nebraska | @ Northwestern |
| @ PSU | @ Indiana | @ MSU |
| OSU |
Barring something highly unlikely, Michigan will need to win out to realistically stay in the hunt. Assuming that happens, we end up at 14-4 in the conference.
Obviously if MSU wins out, they win the conference, end of story.
Obviously we want OSU and MSU to lose every game between now and the conference tourney. If neither of them do until MSU/OSU then...
If UM and OSU win out, a 3 way tie between OSU/UM/MSU exists at 14-4 with a 3-3 head to head record amongst all 3 teams.
What then?
***EDIT***
apparently the big ten changed the tiebreaking rules for the 2012 season. They are ridiculously hard to find via google, big ten site, etc.. but here they are:
http://www.bigten.org/sports/m-baskbl/spec-rel/111011aae.html
B. Multiple team tie:
1. Results of head-to-head competition during the regular-season. a. When comparing records against the tied teams, the team with the higher winning percentage shall prevail, even if the number of games played against the team or group are unequal (i.e., 2-0 is better than 3-1, but 2-0 is not better than 1-0).
b. After the top team among the tied teams is determined, the second team is ranked by its record among the original tied teams, not the head-to-head record vs. the remaining team(s).
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2. If the remaining teams are still tied, then each tied team's record shall be compared to the team occupying the highest position in the final regular-season standings, continuing down through the standings until one team gains an advantage.
a. When arriving at another pair of tied teams while comparing records, use each team's record against the collective tied teams as a group (prior to their own tie-breaking procedures), rather than the performance against the individual tied teams.
b. When comparing records against a single team or group of teams, the higher winning percentage shall prevail, even if the number of games played against the team or group are unequal (i.e., 2-0 is better than 3-1, but 2-0 is not better than 1-0).
3. Won-loss percentage of Division I opponents.
4. Coin toss conducted by Commissioner or designee.
February 22nd, 2012 at 12:34 PM ^
You're looking at Big Ten Tournament seeding rules. If we tie for first, we're champs, period. The BTT is another competition entirely.
February 22nd, 2012 at 12:40 PM ^
Yes, all 3 teams would be co champions, but someone would have to get the 1 seed.
Can someone help me out with figuring out which seed we are likely to be?
I'm contemplating buying tickets / taking time off to go watch a few games in Indy. In anticipation, I'm trying to schedule meetings to accomdate that..
Plus, now I'm just curious.
February 22nd, 2012 at 1:01 PM ^
If we win out, I think we are most likely a 2 seed in the BTT. Unless everything falls our way and we win it all.
February 22nd, 2012 at 2:05 PM ^
I think we're in line to be the three seed. Assuming everyone wins out with OSU beating MSU, leaving a three way tie, the first tie-breaker will likely be record against Wisconsin. Under this scenario, both OSU and MSU will be 2-0, we'll be 1-0. We're the three seed and the other two procede down the line to split the tie.
That's all assuming I read the above rules correctly.
February 22nd, 2012 at 2:33 PM ^
it goes off win pct. 100% is 100%
February 22nd, 2012 at 3:21 PM ^
The second part of that rule says 2-0 is better than 1-0.
February 22nd, 2012 at 10:45 PM ^
It actually specifically says that 2-0 is the same as 1-0, or to quote, 2-0 is not better than 1-0
February 22nd, 2012 at 12:36 PM ^
for Michigan to win/share the B1G title we need to win out and have MSU lose 1 game.
February 22nd, 2012 at 12:41 PM ^
I wouldn't mind if Sparty lose all their remaining games.
February 22nd, 2012 at 1:09 PM ^
they need to win the game against ohio.
February 22nd, 2012 at 1:45 PM ^
and lose the rest would be fine too!
February 22nd, 2012 at 12:38 PM ^
1. Root for Michigan to win out
2. Root for Wisconsin to beat Ohio
3. Root for Indiana to beat lil bro
4. Root for Ohio to beat lil bro
I think this is the most realistic scenario for Michigan to be sole B1G Champs this year.
February 22nd, 2012 at 12:58 PM ^
Either that or have MSU beat OSU and lose to Minnesota and Indiana.
February 22nd, 2012 at 1:00 PM ^
5. Profit
February 22nd, 2012 at 2:21 PM ^
And isn't it generic?
Root for Michigan to always win
Root for Sparty to always lose.
Root for Ohio to lose all its games except against Sparty.*
* Does not apply in football except when divisional standings are relevant.
February 22nd, 2012 at 2:43 PM ^
That's the smartest thing anyone ever said.
February 22nd, 2012 at 6:22 PM ^
I really enjoyed ruining Ohio's chances at a national championship.
I get more satisfaction beating them when they are 11-0 versus 6-5. Needless to say this year's win was therapeutic.
February 22nd, 2012 at 3:58 PM ^
I think it's more likely NW beats Ohio in Evanston than Wisconsin winning in Columbus.
But both would be nice.
February 22nd, 2012 at 12:40 PM ^
but it still will be important.
Both talk about win percentage. So for #1, assuming UM-MSU-OSU all tie, you compare the win percentage against each other. Michigan beat each team once and lost to each team once, so they have a .500 record (2-2) against MSU and OSU summed together. I think MSU and OSU both are 2-2 as well.
#2 is the same as #1, but you now go down the conference standings. If Indiana finishes behind the 3 way tie in 4th place, you look at the overall win percentage (not number of games played) against Indiana for each of UM-MSU-OSU and go down the list until someone has a better percentage.
February 22nd, 2012 at 12:50 PM ^
OSU wins out, and MSU wins all but the OSU game. Then both would have a 2-2 combined record against the other 2 teams tied for first. I think.
February 22nd, 2012 at 12:54 PM ^
Ohio hasn't played MSU in East Lansing yet. It's possible that MSU beats Ohio but loses another game and still gets the 1 seed via a 3-1 record against Michigan and Ohio.
February 22nd, 2012 at 1:11 PM ^
I was just tring to clarify the order of the determination:
1. Win percentage against other teams involved with the tie.
2. Win percentage against other teams in the conference starting with the highest placed team not involved with the tie. If teams are tied (say there is a tie for 4th place), then you combine records against those teams.
February 22nd, 2012 at 1:20 PM ^
If Ohio loses to MSU and MSU only loses 1 more game Ohio would not be tied with Michigan and MSU. To have Ohio in the mix they would have to win all other games and MSU loses 2 more and Michigan loses one if I am not mistaken.
February 22nd, 2012 at 1:28 PM ^
Small correction on MSU's remaining schedule. They play at Minnesota tonight. That is not a home game. Regardless, I think their best chance for another loss is at Indiana. If they could lose another, it would really help us out because fate has not allowed us to win at Illinois the last 15 years.
Ohio State getting upset by Northwestern or Wisconsin? Maybe but highly unlikely.
When OSU and MSU play each other, that's tough. We'll need them both to lose but an MSU loss is needed more for us right now.
A Co-Big Ten championship in basketball would be epic. It's been sooooo long. And stranger things have happened, like Sparty winning a co-Big Ten title last year in football. Sometimes hell does freeze over. But there is so much pressure on us. Even one loss the rest of the way and it's over. And that would be a shame because it's been so long since we've even sniffed a regular season conference title. Get ready for some very nerve wrecking basketball the next 2 weeks.
February 22nd, 2012 at 1:50 PM ^
I believe fate smiles down upon this Wolverine team. I wonder if butterly regrets not being a part of this team?
February 22nd, 2012 at 1:56 PM ^
A B1G championship would certainly be nice, but the team has exceeded my expectations this season. We are pretty much a lock for a top 6 seed in the NCAA tourney with a probable ceiling of a 3 seed. The rest of the season is gravy right now.
February 22nd, 2012 at 1:37 PM ^
Yeah, I think I can do that.
February 22nd, 2012 at 1:49 PM ^
Whoa whoa whoa. So is the commisoner the one flipping the coin? If so, who gets to call heads/tails? I vote heads. What kind of coin is it? It should be a JFK silver dollar. Do we use a three sided coin for three way ties? Does that exist? These rules are definatly not all encompassing. Someone email the comish'
February 22nd, 2012 at 1:54 PM ^
So, assuming we win out, OSU wins out, and MSU and Wisconson win out except against OSU, there would be a three way tie between UM, OSU, and MSU.
Tie-breaker 1 does nothing, because all split our regular season series. Tie-breaker 2 comes into affect, and Wisconson is the first team that we compare against. OSU and MSU would each be 2-0 against Wisconson, and we would be 1-0. Therefore, we would get the third seed.
It's tough to project the standings past fourth, so I'm not sure who would end up winning the tie-breaker between MSU and OSU.
Does this seem correct?
February 22nd, 2012 at 2:06 PM ^
it's just win percentage. So 1-0 vs Wiscy is the same as 2-0. Makes sense as you should not get punished for scheduling.
EDIT: I didn't read. 2-0 does beat 1-0.
February 22nd, 2012 at 2:47 PM ^
I made this mistake yesterday, the OP linked to the OLD Big Ten Tournament tiebreaker rules. The new rules for 2012 state that 2-0 and 1-0 are equivalent. It'd be nice if Northwestern could win out (and Indiana beats MSU)... then we'd probably hold the tiebreaker since we would be the only team that did not lose to Northwestern (also assuming NU moves ahead of PU).
February 22nd, 2012 at 8:38 PM ^
I had no idea the rules had changed, and the rules I originally linked to were the first google result.
So under these new rules, I'm still confused. It almost sounds like in a 3 way tie we won't know who wins the tiebreaker until we know who the 4th place team would be and find out who has the better record against that team?
February 22nd, 2012 at 2:26 PM ^
Michigan will probably lose any three-way tiebreaker. It would probably come from Ohio beating MSU, so the teams would be 2-2 against each other. Then you look at 4th place (probably Wisconsin). We are only 1-0. State is 2-0, and Ohio is 1-0 with another to play. If they win that game, we lose all tiebreakers with either team.
Two-way tiebreakers have the same problem unless we are tied with an Ohio team that has two losses to MSU or a loss to Wisconsin. These ties would only happen if M loses a game. We would lose any two-way tiebreaker to MSU based on record against Ohio (if they win that game) or against Wisconsin. Basically it comes down to this:
1. MSU loses two games, Ohio loses one. M wins sole championship if they win out.
2. If M loses one game, MSU must lose three. Ohio must lose one, to either Wisconsin or MSU.
Ohio pretty much loses all tiebreakers to MSU too, so MSU will be the #1 seed unless they lose at least two games. If everyone wins out otherwise, we will be the #2 if MSU beats Ohio, and the #3 if Ohio wins that game. The Ohio- Wisconsin and MSU-Indiana games are going to be very important in seeding determination.
February 22nd, 2012 at 2:39 PM ^
Gopher Quest Part II commences tonight. A Minnesota upset would be a great way to calm my nerves from the almost-Ackbar Evanston game last night.
February 22nd, 2012 at 2:47 PM ^
Let's just beat the three panty-wastes left on our schedule and stop worrying about all this BS! Knowing this team, the next three games are going to be an adventure anyway.
February 22nd, 2012 at 2:56 PM ^
Our best shot to win is when OSU goes to EL. Hopefully Buford and Thomas can light it up from the outside to open up the inside game for Sullinger. They'll be looking for some revenge. 3 Way tie? I'll take it. Does that give us a banner?
That would give us three banners to put up. Big Ten Champs, Final Four, and of course Novak's jersey get's retired.