A relevant exercise in sec bias in the polls ahead of the CFP rankings. LSU VS. PSU

Submitted by bighouseinmate on November 8th, 2022 at 6:45 PM

I know the whole transitive property thing doesn’t necessarily apply to many(most?) of the games played over the course of a season. There are too many variables that can affect games, such as differences in weather, injuries that hold players out of some games but not others, the unpredictable bounces of fumbles or tipped passes, etc. However, many pollsters seem to use such an inaccurate “metric” in filling out their poll ballots, and subjectively use it to support their inherent biases. When comparing LSU to PSU, we definitely see a bias in favor of the sec, particularly in the CFP rankings. ( I have listed the poll weeks which are actually 1week ahead of the game week.)

-Week 1(preseason)- both teams are unranked, with PSU actually getting a lot more points than LSU. 
-Week 2- LSU lost and doesn’t get a single vote while PSU climbs to the second team out in both polls. 
-Week 3- both teams have won, PSU climbs into the top 25 while lsu doesn’t get any votes for the second week in a row.

-Week 4-PSU has blasted auburn, LSU beats miss st. PSU climbs into the mid teens while LSU only gets a handful of votes. 
-Week 5-PSU has climbed to 11/12 in the polls, LSU still only getting a handful of votes. 
-Week 6- PSU has won again (in one of northwestern’s two monsoon games), while LSU beats auburn in a game they were losing until towards the end of the 3rd quarter. Both PSU and lsu played at auburn, but other than that psu’s win was the much more convincing victory. PSU has climbed to 10 in both polls while lsu jumped to 25 in one, and just out of the top 25 in the other. 
-Week 7- PSU was off and remained at 10 while lsu got throttled at home by Tennessee and was back to getting only a handful of votes.

-Week 8-PSU gets dominated by UM, although they had a lead in the 3rd. LSU beats Florida. PSU drops back to the mid teens while lsu goes from a handful of votes in week 7 to nearly back in the top 25. After beating Florida? Really!?

-Week 9-PSU crushes Minnesota, LSU beats a top ten ole miss. PSU climbs a few spots to 13, LSU jumps a bunch of teams, going from first team out to 18/20.

-Week 10-LSU doesn’t play, PSU loses to a 2nd ranked OSU, playing an even, competitive game(including having a lead in the 3rd qtr) before the rails fell off. A reminder, LSU’s loss to Tennessee wasn’t even remotely close while PSU hung with OSU for a majority of their game. PSU drops a few spots, again settling into the mid teens while lsu, who didn’t play that week, benefited from WF, Syracuse and Okl. St. all losing, climbing ahead of psu in one poll and to just behind PSU in another. This was also the first CFP poll that had head scratching rankings all over the place, including slotting LSU in at 10 and keeping PSU in the mid teens. 
-Week 11- PSU throttles Indiana, LSU wins in ot to a pretty good but not great Alabama. LSU, by virtue of its initial cfp ranking, jumps into the top ten in the ap and coaches polls while PSU only moves up 2 spots with Illinois and kstate both losing. 
 

Week 11’s cfp ranking is still to be revealed, but my guess is LSU moves up a few spots to 7 or 8 while PSU might move up a couple of spots but will remain outside the top ten. This is SEC bias at its worst, IMO. PSU has the better win against a common opponent. PSU’s two losses will be to the number 2 and 3 ranked teams, while LSU’s losses will be to a likely top five Tennessee and a barely top 25 team in FSU, both of which were at home. LSU might have a couple of better wins, against ole miss and Alabama, but IMO, PSU and LSU shouldn’t be as far apart in the rankings as they are. 
 

***I know this should probably be in the diaries section, but I thought it should get more views/discussion here ahead of the newest CFP rankings***

bighouseinmate

November 8th, 2022 at 7:19 PM ^

While I agree with the sentiment, what I illustrated above applies to Michigan. If they win out they are in the playoffs. If they lose even a close game to OSU, the sec bias will drop them further than Tennessee has dropped this week, even though both games will have been top 3 matchups. And much of that reason will be because PSU’s ranking doesn’t have the benefit of sec bias. 

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Stringer Bell

November 8th, 2022 at 6:54 PM ^

Ranking LSU #10 initially was a bad joke.  The committee did a horrible job the first week and that was proven when their #4 team got destroyed by a mediocre Notre Dame team.  But now LSU will get major props for beating one of Saban's weakest Bama teams by 1 point in OT in a crazy home night environment.  The fact that people are talking 2 loss LSU for the playoffs is absurd.

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Hab

November 8th, 2022 at 7:00 PM ^

The mid-tier SEC teams (LSU/Ole Miss) are only there to prop up eventual one-loss SEC teams.  The committee got caught with its pants down when Bama lost its second game.  The plan was to get UGA/Bama/UT into the playoff.  That's now been scrapped because Kelly didn't get the memo.  He'll have it sorted out in a year or two.

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cigol

November 8th, 2022 at 6:55 PM ^

I suspect that the B1G's record vs. the SEC in the CFP has a role in this.  Except for Clemson, every other school in every conference gets bushwhacked by the SEC every year in the playoffs. Down slate bowls are different, but we're talking about the Alabama effect with the LSU comparison. OSU won playoff games in 2020 and 2014, so they get a bit of favoritism.  Other than that, we're 0-fer.

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KentuckianaWolverine

November 8th, 2022 at 9:16 PM ^

Every team gets crushed by Alabama, in most years, INCLUDING the SEC.  It makes me laugh when people just overlook the fact that Alabama usually goes undefeated in the SEC.  Meaning....nobody in the SEC is beating them either.

Michigan got beat by Georgia in the playoffs, last year, by 23 points.  Well....Alabama (SEC team) got beat by that same Georgia squad by 15 points, 10 days later.  If that were a BIG 10 team, then everyone would be beating their chests about SEC superiority, but it was SEC vs SEC, so everyone just ignored it.  Drives me crazy.

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energyblue1

November 9th, 2022 at 8:48 AM ^

Auburn, psu @auburn beat them 41-12, Georgia in a home game beat auburn 42-10..  

So we know the transitive property doesn't work but it is a fair comparison to say, if Penn St didn't have Michigan and Osu on the schedule right now they'd be undefeated.  IE if they were in the Big10 West and had SEC 8 game conference schedule where they don't play the top teams from the other divison, we'd be talking 3 Big ten teams in the top 5..   Ridiculous I know, but the point is, the SEC controls it's scheduling, plays less conference games, plays FCS opponents which benefits in many ways on final record which affects recruiting even more...  

I am hoping with USC and UCLA join we adopt the sec schedule format.  8 conf games, allow fcs opponents and allow non conference games up till the end of October..  

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Vasav

November 8th, 2022 at 7:04 PM ^

This is a good point. Honestly, the first CFP was way off - I'd forgotten about the Auburn comparison. I myself had been thinking "ahh ok LSU is a top ten team" after this weekend - but the loss to FSU is real, and the blowout to Tennessee is equivalent to PSU's getting blown out by Michigan. PSU's loss to OSU is way better than LSU's to FSU. LSU's best win tho - beating Bama - is better than any of PSU's. They do seem pretty even to me

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Needs

November 9th, 2022 at 9:53 AM ^

For teams down the rankings, the committee seems to value good wins more than “who did you lose to.” PSU’s issue is that they don’t have any possible good wins on their schedule apart from UM and OSU because of the rest of the league. At times, Auburn would be a good win but not this year. 

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NittanyFan

November 8th, 2022 at 7:30 PM ^

LSU should be ranked higher than PSU, IMO, and it isn't even close:

  • I'm a subscriber to the opinion, that when it comes to the college football rankings, a win is a win.  Margin of victory shouldn't be heavily considered.  Admittedly, I'm a minority opinion in thinking that.  But from my POV, LSU and PSU's win at Auburn are essentially equal.  They both beat a below-average SEC team.
  • PSU's best win is ---- at Purdue?  vs Minnesota?  PSU is, to be objective, a kind of difficult team to rank: come early December, they may very well be 10-2 but with NO victories over an AP Top 25 team, nor even a win over a receiving votes team!
  • I'd rank LSU's wins over Alabama and Ole Miss as clearly better than anything PSU has.  Arguably Mississippi State too, and if I'm stretching I could even argue for their Florida win (let's not forget Florida has a win over a team that could yet win the Pac-12).
  • LSU's loss to Florida State really isn't a ghastly loss.

Overall, Penn State's resume is what it is.  A team that has an absolute ceiling of 12-15 in the rankings.  No higher, and of course the potential to go lower (if they lose at least one of their last 3). 

In an alternate world, PSU's win over Auburn would really be a data point for a cross-conference comparison (sort of like how Michigan/UCLA could have been a data point, but we won't have that either).  But Auburn just wasn't good this year.

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ESNY

November 8th, 2022 at 8:33 PM ^

Good write up. SEC bias is real but not sure comparing week to week movement between PSU and LSU will get you there. 

as you said, LSU has 2-3 wins that are clearly better than any PSU wins.
 

And their losses are roughly comparable, but might slightly favor PSU. Each team has one fairly equal blowout loss (Mich vs Tenn). LSU lost by one at home to a barely ranked FSU and PSU lost by 2 TD to OSU at home (albeit they were in the game for the most part before shooting themselves in the dick). Having LSU half a dozen spots above PSU seems about right 

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bighouseinmate

November 8th, 2022 at 9:55 PM ^

I’m not so sure lsu should have been ranked THAT much higher in the initial cfp rankings. IMO, that was really where the sec bias showed up. Up to that point, LSU’s best win was against ole miss, whose own schedule strength was extremely weak other than a win against Kentucky who has kinda been exposed the past few weeks. This was before LSU’s win against bama. PSU, arguably, was playing as good or better than LSU to that point. Yet lsu makes a huge jump from mid teens in the ap and coaches, up to 10 in the cfp, while PSU stayed the same. That is the sec bias.

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jerseyblue

November 8th, 2022 at 7:35 PM ^

I'm picturing myself rooting for an already ticket punched Georgia to beat LSU in an SEC Championship game just to make sure they can't find some avenue to rank them higher than a 1 loss Big 10 team.

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s1105615

November 8th, 2022 at 8:10 PM ^

Won’t matter…Tennessee will slide right in at 11-1 at 2 or 3 and avoid a potential rematch with UGA until the Championship Game.

For the B1G to get 2 teams, Tennessee needs to lose again, UGA needs to beat whoever out of the West in the SECCG and for TCU to lose 2 (they are not expected to be favored in at least one more game after this weekend where they are already a 7 point underdog to Texas) of their remaining 3 or 4 games.

The most unlikely event of those listed is Tennessee losing again.  For the SEC and B1G to get 2 teams, then the PAC will have to see Oregon, USC, and UCLA all lose another and have a 2 loss champion as well. Seeing UNC beat Clemson (or just have Clemson lose another game before the ACCCG) wouldn’t hurt, but probably isn’t necessary.

Can it all break right?  Sure.  Is it likely to happen?  No.

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Grampy

November 9th, 2022 at 7:54 AM ^

Since 'rankings' can not be based on statistically conclusive sampling size, it becomes the purview of media representation.  The SEC spans a hotbed of recruiting and is financially involved with the largest media provider.  The more the SEC is touted, the more valuable individual games involving SEC participants become in media reporting, poll-based rankings, and any subjective factors included in analytics.  It sucks to be anyone else.

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Indonacious

November 8th, 2022 at 9:42 PM ^

I mean sure but also who would you take Bama or penn state on a neutral field? Bama has lost a couple But one was last second fg and other was in OT. PSU lost both their games by double digits and against us it was a hamblasting. There is no way to argue the big ten deserves more respect, particularly given nobody outside of UM, OSU, and PSU is decent (I don’t buy illinois). We simply haven’t earned it against the sec under the bright lights. If anyone should have a beef it’s with the ACC, which is a fraudulent conference. 

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MaizeNBlueTexan

November 8th, 2022 at 7:41 PM ^

I got you on this one. Before the first CFP ranking LSU was #15 in ap and #17!! in coaches poll.

Them being ranked 10 in CFP was 100% because they wanted to keep bama in the convo. 
 

LSU wins…at home…in OT. 
 

Shit shit shit. Okay don’t drop bama too far and lets sling shot LSU to 7. Keep tenn at 5. We cant trust tenn or lsu, but maybe one can sneak in?

Ill bet my mortgage this is why the rankings are the way they are.

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