Real talk: what exactly is this program's ceiling?

Last year, they were outclassed against Georgia. They lose that game 10 out of 10 times. Yesterday, they were outsmarted…by themselves. They had 3 catastrophic events happen, which turned out to be 1 too many. They likely win that game 9 out of 10 times. The ceiling is higher. 

This program can compete for national titles every year, just like OSU has for the last couple decades. Winning the Big Ten 3-4 times a decade and a NC once a decade is very realistic. Once there is a 12 team playoff, I expect us to make it 75% of the time. Harbaugh is objectively a top 5 coach nationally, so we can definitely compete for national titles. Then it is just a question of making the few key plays that determine the season. 

Mostly 10 feet.  The basement is a mix cause there is some duct work to deal with.  But the deck doesn't have a roof - so a lot.

The ceiling is pretty clearly national champs. No matter what people say about recruiting, NIL, or Harbaugh to the NFL, going to the CFP in consecutive years says a lot. It also says a lot that UM lost their CFP semifinal by one score while not even remotely playing its best game (while having a Heisman caliber RB on crutches, being down to the 3rd string TE). At the same time, a team we absolutely handled (OSU) lost by a single point on "college kicker" stuff to what would've been UM's next opponent.

I don't think it's worthwhile to lay out a "25-year ceiling" because too much changes annually, let alone decade-by-decade.

If the refs take our touchdowns away from us the ceiling is really low.  

If the refs let us keep our touchdowns the ceiling is the national championship.

Ceiling is playoffs and national championship.

Next 3 weeks will tell a lot with the NFL Draft and Transfer Portal Deadlines.

I would love to go 13-1 every single year.  It was a lot of fun.  By any measure Michigan had an extremely good season.  We were beat by a better TCU team yesterday.  Not a better team overall, but better yesterday and that is what matters.  With the 4-team playoff it's really difficult to fake your way to a national championship.  First you need to attain one of the four coveted spots and then you need to beat two other very good teams to win it.  It's really tough to do and it just makes what Alabama, and UGA to a lesser extent, have accomplished that much more unbelievable.

In a 12-team playoff I expect we will make the field maybe 5 times in a 15-year span and win maybe one of them if things fall into place.  It's the falling into place that is hard to gauge.  I thought the team this year was primed to win the whole thing.  But then we happened upon uncharacteristic mistakes by players and coaches that broke the tendencies that got us to where we were.  So I don't know -- winning the whole thing once every 15 years, or even once every 20 years, would be reasonable goals.  That should improve by a decent amount if we can get back to consistent top 8 recruiting classes year after year.

Dude. We "lost", but not really. 

Didn't play particularly well, especially on defense. But overall, we were clearly the better team. Georgia struggled a LOT with OSU, who we mashed, again. 

If the refs, and booth had done their fucking jobs, we're playing for the Championship next week. But they didn't, so we aren't. 

Yes, there were also things Michigan could have done to seal it on their own. They didn't. That doesn't make the previous statements untrue. Michigan got jobbed. And still could have pulled it out had they not gotten jobbed a second time. Even with that, they had a half dozen other chances to get the win. Sports. 

I'm good with where the team is, and think anyone who isn't will never, ever be happy. 

edit: not "good"... I'm thrilled with the state of The Team. Go Blue. 

As built? This. What you saw this year.

That's not an emotional reply as I'm ok with the season. I'm not mad or anything but kinda bummed that they basically beat themselves.

The next hump can only be overcome with a vicious defense or (maybe and/or) developing the passing game to back defenses off when they decide to send an army to stop the run.

Nothing crazy, just think UGA. Smart, above-average athletic QB play, throwing to WRs that can get open through crisp routes or athleticism and - because it's Michigan - great TE play.

It's doable. It's not saying to abandon the run or change anything else. Just develop JJ and the WRs. Jim has to do this next or this year is the absolute ceiling.

Which, btw, it was a tremendous year. As I said I'm not in freakout mode at all. I'm content. Great year. Need to take another step to go beyond the Semifinals.

The ceiling changes every season due to multiple factors. This year’s team really could have won the National Championship. Unfortunately, they were largely their own undoing and squandered an excellent chance to go play for the title. 

With the assumed talent coming back and some of the incoming instant impact transfers, I think we can hope that next year’s team will be just as good and will put itself in a similar position. But the opportunities that this year’s team had are sometimes one time things. 

This is an interesting question because of the expanded playoff in the future and the potential rematches in conference championships. I think we’re seeing the peak and may have spoiled our best shot at a national championship. 

The expanded playoffs along with the length of the season will turn seasons into a meat grinder like the NFL. Better be ready for a situation like this year where your stars players might be out down the stretch. Furthermore, you’re going to potentially get as many as three games between Michigan and Ohio State where we’re going to have to gear up to not only try to handle our rival but handle OSU multiple times just to potentially get to a national championship.

Expanded playoffs just make it harder to win a national championship in my opinion because of rematches along with injury potential.

Once the playoff goes to 12 teams I would expect us to be in there most years with the current coaching staff. Then it's a crapshoot. Ceiling would be a championship if things fall our way

It doesn't just depend on us, it also depends on how other programs do. Does Ohio State find its footing against us or have we cracked the nut, so to speak? Does Alabama regain its place at the top? Georgia was beatable last night. Do they continue their upward trajectory or do they stagnate? Will LSU make a play? We don't play in a vacuum, so it's really impossible to evaluate without knowing who we're going up against. I think Harbaugh solved some stuff in the last two years and if they can keep putting the pieces together, I think we'll continue to be in the position we're in, and a National Championship is possible. 

Considering the way a team we beat by 22 played against the #1 team in country, and the way we had 3 completely avoidable and uncharacteristic errors in our game last night; I’d say pretty high as long as we can get near McCarthy level QBs and we keep the Oline/running game train going decently well. Keep our defense up to date with OSU as well. 

With a more Cade type of QB, 2021 is likely the ceiling. 
 

I said this last year, and I will say it again. I feel like we are entering at least a 10 year stretch where UM is similar to the last 25 years Wisconsin+ in knowing what to expect. You could even say 1969-2007 Michigan+. We are in good hands as long as Harbaugh is coaching or his fingerprints are all over the program, just need to get the breaks to get over the final hump. I don’t think we will ever be Bama, or maybe even what Georgia is potentially becoming, but we can continue to be great for sustained decades. 

This is Michigan. Ceiling is National title. Full stop end of story. 
 

Why is the ceiling a National Title? Because it’s the highest achievement you can get. If there is a trophy beyond that…Michigan can get there 100%.

Sober up and come back to reality. 99.99 percent of cfb teams would kill their mom to be in our spot. Only 2-3 are ahead of us.

End of discussion.

I think it's pretty simple. Our ceiling is 4-team CFP participant. The way the Big Ten is right now, that means beating OSU, conference championship, and appearing in the 4-team CFP.

Last year, we didn't have the talent to beat Georgia -- that was pretty clear. But this year, we were at least on par, talent-wise, with TCU. The major problem? The attitude of this staff towards "bowl season" (i.e. long layoff) preparation has got to improve. As of now, Harbaugh and his staffs are 1-6 in bowls. "Putting the team in a position to win" has improved a great deal in the regular season, but still seems like a pipe dream in bowl games. We need to be better in order to take the next step.

….the roof 

Real talk: How the fuck she know i was with them other girls!?! REAL TALK!

The bar was set high this fall not only by us fans but what the team leaders said and kept saying that they wanted to go all the way. They had 4 goals for 2022: beat MSU, check. Beat OSU in C-bus, check. Win the Big-10 title, check and then win in the CFP- not.

It's up to the team leaders in 2023 to what kind of season they will have. They are capable of running the table again. Statistically, this will be very difficult to do. Just don't lose to OH State and get back to the Big -10 title game. Learn how to manage the 4 week layoff better in which these past two years should teach them and the coaching staff a lesson.

Michigan will have excellent leadership in 2023 with JJ and Donovan on offense and at least Sainristill on defense plus one other. They will set the bar high once again and then go out and achieve these goals. It's there for the taking and I trust these guys will be as hungry as ever in 2023. The winning culture is now set in stone at Schembechler Hall.

I think we saw it.

13-0, Big Ten Champs, just not quite good enough on a national level.   This was the best chance, best matchup we'll ever get and we looked like we have every bowl game of my entire life except for a small, very small handful.   Something in Michigan's DNA is a season that creshendo's to Ohio State week and they fall flat for the month after preparing for a bowl.  Maybe the week to week playoffs change that but I'm not holding my breathe.

On a broader scale, Michigan just needs to be faster, yet I'm not sure how you do that and still build a team to win outdoors in November.  Ohio State has shown you can be fast in the Big Ten, they've also shown how they can be pushed around and bullied when the weather turns.  Catch 22.  Build to win the Big Ten or build to win National titles and fall flat on your face a few times.

While there were significant officiating and player mistakes yesterday, the mistakes that will lower the programs ceiling were the self inflicted coaching mistakes, on both sides of the ball. I thought they had finally gotten past them after the Illinois game, but they came back with a vengeance, and as long as they continue putting their own players behind the sticks and doing the opponents favors, this is a good as it gets. 

Winning a national championship. It won't come as easily as for Bama or Georgia, but if you can make the playoffs multiple times you can win it all. Fuckin TCU is in the Natty. 

Michigan won every offensive category except two in last night's loss -- and the big one they failed to win was the one by which the program has defined itself in victory all season long: the running game. We were out rushed by 78 yards while piling up 527 in total yards. 

Michigan held Duggan to less than 50 percent passing and 225 yards through the air. That was still enough to get the job done because TCU ran the ball better than Michigan while handing the Horned Frogs 14 points on two pick sixes. 

Forty-five points ought to have been enough to win handily. But, of course, it wasn't because Michigan gave up 37 points on defense including 30 in the second half virtually halving a seasonal total of 57 second half points in 13 other victories. 

The game defies explanation except to note UM got beat repeatedly in the trenches and that is the strength Michigan was supposed to laud over TCU.

Though Michigan demonstrated brilliant resilience it never got closer than 3 points to TCU after scoring 39 second half points. That continued Michigan's yearlong second half dominance but couldn't account for all the redzone failures and goal line catch reversal that kept Michigan out of the end zone in the first half save for Moody's fantastic field goal kicking. The call on Wilson's sit down catch and roll that ended with the ball cradled in his arms across the goal line was unforgivable. 

It was made so because a fumble ensued, but also because it came after an interception that was improperly spotted two yards or more and was clearly the difference in McCarthy's TD toss. Still, the call on the field was touchdown and there was no evidence to support overturning it except the contention that the application of the completed catch standard doesn't apply or only matters when there is only that to judge.

Wilson caught the ball after a slight bobble and then secured it. In bounds, as in the end zone, the ball's location marks the spot. It's where the ball is when a player completes the catch, not where he starts the catch. You can catch the ball while diving for it or on the ground with any part of your body touching the ground, and if you make the catch breaking the plane of the goal line while sitting on it, touchdown. 

Michigan failed on any number of levels in game performance by its staff and players. Clearly TCU found a way to stymie Michigan's run scheme and alleged OL superiority by repeatedly run-blitzing gaps on early downs. That impacted Michigan's play calling and offensive rhythm. It also explains why Michigan's 3d down efficiency was so skewed. Michigan did most of its damage on second down and big plays on first down.

This loss deeply hurts because it prevented us from another national measuring stick opportunity in a championship game. But it shouldn't obscure the growth this program has now achieved and the ladder Jim Harbaugh is climbing with this team. When Harbaugh was winning in the NFL, he won double digit games three years straight during a Super Bowl run. We are now in the midst of a similar run having won 25 of 28 games, losing the last two in playoff contests.

We will learn from our mistakes with players and staff now even more motivated to take the next step. 

The ceiling is as high as any program in the country.UM is  No longer bound by playoff lockouts( UM obviously made it 2 straight years) and with the 12 team playoff upcoming, that’s not the issue. My issue is UM plays “tractor pull” football all year. And that’s fine to beat Illinois and Purdue. But you can’t play tractor pull football in the playoffs. Sesame Street used to sing “which of these things is not like the other” . Well of the 4 playoff teams, UM seemed least comfortable playing track meet football. If they’d had their way, maybe they beat TCU, but no way do they beat Georgia or Ohio State again playing like that. So the ceiling will depend on them evolving to let the QB be the offensive focal point. 

They crushed the team that nearly beat Georgia. They almost beat the other possible national champion, despite making so many huge mistakes…and next year’s team has the potential to be better than both 2021 and 2022. Alabama, Georgia and OSU will lose their QBs. They no doubt all have talented guys waiting in the wings, but all three will likely be down a bit at the most important position on the field. Meanwhile, despite his big mistakes, McCarthy showed his dynamic ability and kept Michigan in it all the way through…and he should be better next year. The bottom line is the ceiling for next year is winning it all. After that, it’s the great unknown, including whether Harbaugh will still  be coaching at Michigan.

Natty.  All the whining around here is pathetic. 

I would say the late 80’s to 90’s Michigan is about the reasonable ceiling.  Win 50 to 60 percent of the conference titles and a national title or two.  
 

I also think the championship game and multiple round playoff will make it harder than in that era.  It used to be the regular season and a bowl game. Teams could also stockpile talent.  Now, there are additional single elimination games.  Despite all the analytics and fancy-stats, shit still just happens in playoffs and title games.  Also, players who don’t get playing time can hit the portal and contribute to other teams.  So, I think late 80’s to 90’s Michigan may be the ceiling for ANY team - even the Alabamas of the world.  
 

Edit - I viewed the question as being long term not just next year.  

The program's ceiling is obviously a national championship.  They took a bad beat yesterday, like going all in with pocket aces and losing when your opponent flops a straight.  This team at its best can play with anyone, they just lost.