Brandywine

April 14th, 2015 at 10:22 AM ^

It's hard for me to believe that our fans care one bit about a recruit's five star status at this point given the last 7 years, what MSU is doing and to an extent Green, Pipkins and Kalis.

Guys like Jabrill are different, but it's obvious in my opinion that a player's success is way more reflective of program culture (aka, winning) and coaching than an eventual star rating.

The Mad Hatter

April 14th, 2015 at 10:34 AM ^

Excellent coaches can take lower rated players and coach them up into good/great players, see Dantonio, Mark.  

I have to believe that Harbaugh can do the same.  And if he gets great players, he can coach them up into elite players.

Basically I'm saying that if JH is coaching a team of 2-3* players, we'll still win a lot of games.  Stock that same team with elite talent and we're in the playoffs almost every year.

saveferris

April 14th, 2015 at 10:53 AM ^

It's hard for me to believe that our fans care one bit about a recruit's five star status at this point given the last 7 years

We should care because our biggest rival and the defending National Champion has a bunch of them. It's been shown here time and again that recruiting performance correlates very well with overall program accomplishment. The MSU model of picking up 2nd tier players and coaching them up only takes you so far. Dantonio has accomplished an extraordinary amount with the material he's had to work with, but if MSU takes the next step, it's because they've upped their game recruiting-wise.

Further, if MSU is the standard that we are aiming for around here, then we're shooting too low.

Brandywine

April 14th, 2015 at 11:23 AM ^

Well, the model of picking up 1st tier players whose star ratings we were foaming over and not coaching them up has taken us even less far.

All I'm saying is that program culture and coaching is the prerequisite, and maybe that's too obvious. Plug any of our recent players into OSU or MSU's program and they'd be better, and plug most of OSU's five star players (except the instant impact types like Jabrill, Bosa) into our program and they'd be worse. Harbaugh is clearly a mammoth upgrage, so I think my point is moot.

I'd disagree to an extent about MSU - four of their last five seasons are nothing to sneeze at. I know we want to win national championships, but those seasons are as good or better than the much of the Carr era. I don't necessarily know that a high 4-star player's ceiling is automatically higher in our system because of his recruiting ranking than a lower rated player in MSU's program. I think what would take MSU (and us) to the next level is the true, obvious 5-star talents that OSU loads up on. Falcon very well could be that guy, but the context given here is one of a solid player that might get a "bump" to a 5-star label and not a Jabrill Peppers type.

ThadMattasagoblin

April 14th, 2015 at 11:31 AM ^

I don't think we have to go the MSU route and stop recruiting 5 stars because Hoke couldn't develop them. Look at what Nick Saban did. Alabama was a lot like us in the early 2000s. They had coaches who recruited well but couldn't coach worth a lick and then Saban came in to provide the coach up the guys he inherited and was in the SEc championship in 2 years and won the national championship in 3 years. There was no MSU stage. Same with Florida from Zook to Urban.

vdiddy24

April 14th, 2015 at 11:49 AM ^

People act like MSU has been recruiting 3 Stars by preference, taking a look at a the offer sheets of many of our 4 and 5 stars recruits (particularly many of the offensive linemen who have struggled here) and you'll see plenty of MSU Offers.

I distinctly remember during Commit-a-palooza that we were all having a good laugh because several of the recruits had just finished or cancelled visits to MSU during that weekend. 

Ultimately, they've struck out and coached up what they had, but it does not mean that they've avoided recruiting those that are perceived as 5 Star or Elite recruits. It would be stupid to do so.

Brandywine

April 14th, 2015 at 1:48 PM ^

Yeah, I don't think anyone is suggesting we stop recruiting 5-star players, or even players like Falcon. That's insane. I don't want to go the "MSU model", and yes we should want to be like Alabama.

I just don't see the point of getting excited about an upgrade to a 5-star label as if it means something. That's part of what the OP was suggesting, right?

saveferris

April 14th, 2015 at 12:24 PM ^

 

Well, the model of picking up 1st tier players whose star ratings we were foaming over and not coaching them up has taken us even less far.

 

Agree completely, I should've been more explicit in this regard. If Hoke proved anything in his time here, it's that good to great recruiting can't make up for mediocre coaching. That said, the numbers tend to show that those programs that are consistently elite, recruit elite players.

MSU has been good, but the results from the past 5 years still show a program that is very good, but not elite. They've been "elite" with respect to the conference, but that isn't saying much and provides an explanation for why MSU has been so "good" recently.

The reality is that if Michigan and Penn State start being themselves again soon, the team that is going to be on the outside looking in is Michigan State. 11-1 seasons are going to turn into 10-2 and 9-3 seasons and will probably settle out at 9-3 and 8-4, at which point I'm guessing Dantonio calls it a career.

HAIL-YEA

April 14th, 2015 at 5:13 PM ^

I guess it's how you define elite. I feel like elite means you're still chasing a natty in october, and I don't believe MSU has ever really been a contender like that. MSU top 5 finishes consist of sliding into the position after elite teams in the top 5 lose in their bowl games against other elite teams.

saveferris

April 14th, 2015 at 5:22 PM ^

Not sure where in any of my posts I claimed that Michigan under Carr was an elite program.  I think Michigan has a stronger claim to elite status at least in the late 90's early 2000's if only because the Big 10 back then was arguably the best college football conference in the country, but certainly there are significant stretches where Michigan under Carr was not elite.

MSU's record under Dantonio is propped up by the Big 10 being awful.  You can make the same argument for Ohio State too, I suppose, but they at least went out and won the National Championship and probably would've won two if they weren't on probation in 2012.  I don't get the impetus to put MSU in the same category as OSU when all they have really to hang their hat on is one elite season.  That's a big difference than being an elite program.

Dantonio will get his chance to prove me wrong since he's going to be playing OSU every season from now on and he'll be facing an improved Michigan, and probably an improving Penn State.  My guess is that MSU follows the same trajectory as Iowa of the mid-2000's under Ferentz. 

NestleCrunch

April 14th, 2015 at 12:28 PM ^

Let me get this straight... people here are arguing that we shouldn't care about 5 stars because with poor coaching they don't work out. Interesting, yes let's take 3 stars with poor coaching, that'll work great!!!! If MSU recruited at a high level they wouldn't get worse, they'd get better. If you honestly believe the rankings don't matter, you don't understand probabilities, statistics, or math. Pointing out outliers doesn't argue anything.... Usually its better to get the best players out of high school to get the best players in college.

So yes, with a good talent evaluator (beilein, dantonio) star ratings matter a bit less because you have a higher hit rate anyway on the lower ranked players. But don't go around telling yourself Dantonio and Beliein aren't out there trying to get the higher ranked players.  

Little disappointed this is a discussion.

Brandywine

April 14th, 2015 at 2:05 PM ^

Well, apparently my point was not articulated well enough. We should want all the 5-star players we can get. I'm not suggesting we don't recruit them, or that we don't want Matt Falcon specifically because he may end up a 5-star. That's ridiculous.

I just don't think that "he may get a 5th star" is anything to get excited about other than it's nice to see it reflected in UM's class ranking. Great coaching and a winning culture means way more. Obviously, we have Harbaugh now, so like I said this is moot.

NestleCrunch

April 15th, 2015 at 11:03 AM ^

Recruiting momentum. Means he's being lifted into a category of higher probabilities. Even Harbaugh needs momentum on the recruiting trail, if we have a few 5 stars in the class that will get a lot of press and recruits will take even more notice. Getting five stars leads to getting more fve stars.

alum96

April 14th, 2015 at 3:03 PM ^

LOL just happy to be in the minority and laugh my ass off at comments like MSU's ceiling is not as good as UM's.  How does MSU's ceilling differ from Baylor and TCU?  It doesn't. 

How does Baylor and TCU's ceiling differ from Texas and Oklahoma?  It doesn't.  That's the same argument here with MSU vs OSU/UM/PSU.  There is parity and right coaching and enough good talent, coached up, with a top end QB and you can win huge in the NCAA now/

Both TCU Baylor were border playoff teams based on a stupid system that eliminated them both because they tied with 1 loss.  I'd take 1 loss anytime any year as a ceiling.  MSU was a few stupid PI calls at ND away frrom playing for a NC 2 years ago.  Another 1 loss team.

So whats the ceiling over a 1 loss team?  A 0 loss team. Of which they are maybe 5 a decade.  That's a ridiculous standard.  And UM has not been near that since 97.  1 loss teams have won NCs - thats a pretty solid "ceiling".

11-2, 11-3, 7-6, 13-1, 12-2.  MSU's last 5 years.

Yes I'd fucking take that evey day all day for a 5 year record.  If the playoffs were around 1 year earlier they'd have been a playoff team with a chance to win 2 games and with a NC.  That's all you ask for as a ceiling.  Combine that once every 5 years with 4 other years of 11 + wins? 

LOL Ceiling.  Sorry - I do appreciate the laugh.  This is like MSU fans ripping on UM's basketball program since Beilein can't have the ceiling Izzo has.

 

getsome

April 14th, 2015 at 5:45 PM ^

true that.  its so difficult to consistently win 10+ games and be in contention for conference crowns and playoff / bsc games most every year.  that is the ceiling - unless fans are holding out for usc or bama type dynasty (which is just unrealistic - um has not won like saban or meyer since what, before ww2?).

winning big, consistently and over the long haul, is incredibly difficult.  its why i respect the resumes of guys like stoops, spurrier, diantonio, richt, patterson, etc (in addition to obvious dynasties guys like saban and meyer built with multiple titles) - those guys have proven they can consistently get it done (diantonio and patterson are recent additions to the club) with rare outlier season when theyre not "in it" or finishing with 10+ wins.  

we should all hope for rare seasons when team finishes 8-4 or 9-3 rather than 10-2 or 11-1

Big_H

April 14th, 2015 at 9:09 AM ^

If he can stay healthy and his offensive line can replicate what they did last year then he could easily run for 2,000+ yards and rack up 20+ Touchdowns. Also if he works hard this in his off season workouts and maybe do a little injury prevention training. I can see this kid doing really big things this season and could be looked at as a composite Top 5 running back nationally.

 

Does anyone know if he is going to hit any of the summer camp circuits this year?

I might have missed that in the article if he was or not.

umbig11

April 14th, 2015 at 9:19 AM ^

He says Matt is really excited about Michigan and will be a great ambassodor of the program. I hope he gets the top in state kids to commit as well. If his uncle posts any newsworthy information I will pass it along. He has emailed me a couple of times already.

Trader Jack

April 14th, 2015 at 9:39 AM ^

Not really. Falcon is far away from composite 5 star status, but he's already the 149th overall player on Scout. It stands to reason he could become a 5 star with a big Senior season. Don't take my word for it - Allen Trieu said "the only thing stopping Falcon from being a 5 star is more carries" and, since he's Scout's regional analyst, I think he'd know.




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Magnus

April 14th, 2015 at 9:46 AM ^

I'm not taking your word for it. I'm taking the word of the 247 Composite rankings, which say that he's closer (mathematically) to 3-star status than 5-star status.

Composite rankings are probably more accurate than Scout. And if we're talking about using an individual site, Rivals has a better history of ranking players, and they also believe he's closer to 3-star status than 5-star status (he's a 4-star outside the Rivals 250, and he's the #13 running back, while the #16 running back is a 3-star).

Trader Jack

April 14th, 2015 at 9:59 AM ^

Ok well if we're talking about individual rankings, why did you bring up ESPN's ranking of him? You've mentioned in the past that it's less accurate than Rivals, Scout, or 247 in your opinion. ESPN's evaluation of him makes his 247 composite ranking look a lot worse than it would be if you just used the 3 sites that you've said yourself are more accurate as well.

Regardless, I never said he was close to being a composite 5 star and neither did the post I originally commented on. You started that argument with yourself. I said he's closer to a 5 star than a 3 star on Scout, and their Regional Analyst agrees with me.




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