Question - Would Michigan BBall be Co-Favorites with Wisconsin with Jon Horford?
Throwing this theoretical question out there just to take a break from the coaching drama in football. We are far enough into the basketball season to have a decent idea of what we are getting from our 5 freshmen and Donnal. We have (1) an absolute revelation in Ricky Doyle, we have (2) a young guy who is finding his way in Chatman, and then we have (3) 3 freshmen who at this moment seem like bit players in 2014-15, including 1 they are exploring his RS. I've been surprised Dawkins is welded to the bench vs good teams but it seems that's the situation for now.
I do believe that if Mitch had been caught by Michigan rather than the NCAA he was coming back for another year and UM immediately is a top 5 team in the nation. But if it was Jon Horford instead of Mitch as our starting center, how do you think UM would stack up in the Big 10? Still behind Wisconsin? Or co-favorites?
(Yes I realize there was 0% chance he was coming back in retrospect with his family pressure)
Here are Jon's data points from the 3 real teams UF has played:
- Miami FL, 31 minutes, 5-9 (56%), 3-6 from 3 (50%), 17 pts, 7 reb, 3 blocks
- Georgetown, 31 minutes, 4-5 (80%), 0-1 from 3 (0%), 10 pts 11 reb, 1 block
- North Carolina, 20 minutes, 3-8 (37%), 1-5 from 3 (20%), 7 pts 7 reb, 1 block
What has surprised me about Horford at UF is his rebounding and how many 3 pointers he takes - both things lacking here. So maybe he would not have been that player here or maybe he would have. Let's assume he would be. You are talking about a guy giving you 28 minutes a nite, 11 pts, 8 rbs a night. That's good stuff.
Specific to Michigan, your 5 goes from Doyle/Donnal combo with emergency Max to Horford (25 min)/Doyle (15 min) and Donnal is a backup stretch 4 behind Chatman or emergency 5 with foul trouble to the other . Max remains in emergency 3rd center role.
Doyle was the only guy on the floor who could play a guy like Christmas. Similar guys in the big 10 exist for Wisconsin, Illinois and it looks like Maryland has a freshman center of similar ilk. Maybe 1-2 other guys like this in the confrence but you get the point. As you go through the onslaught of Big 10 season you have 2 true center types and their 10 fouls rather than 1 who is a true freshman who in any game could get 2 quick fouls.
Your main rotation is now Doyle, Horford, Donnal, Chatman, Irvin, Caris, Spike, Walton Jr. - with Max as your 9th.
December 3rd, 2014 at 9:42 AM ^
"We're not gonna work in hypotheticals."
December 3rd, 2014 at 9:44 AM ^
what if Cazzie was still playing?
December 3rd, 2014 at 9:52 AM ^
If Cazzie had eligibility for 2014-2015 and had played in 2013-2014 that would be relevant.
December 3rd, 2014 at 9:46 AM ^
Doyle is already showing much more potential than Horford ever did. The way he carried himself on the floor did not instill confidence in his teammates. He played soft. He had a few good games for a team that he won't even start for in a bit. Check back at the end of the season. Horford was not a good player for us and wouldn't have been this year either.
December 3rd, 2014 at 9:51 AM ^
I agree with your sentiment on Doyle but he is a freshman and there are going to be nights he is on the bench in minute 6 with 2 fouls and then we are looking around going... welp.
Horford at Michigan actually reminds me of Donnal in terms of how they play in terms of being soft. Hence my surprise at his rebounding numbers at UF.
December 3rd, 2014 at 9:54 AM ^
That's an interesting point. Wonder if he may have been enough to turn the tide against Villanova when our bigs were in foul trouble
December 3rd, 2014 at 10:14 AM ^
would have been. He was not "soft," it just so happenned that Jordan Morgan was of the Ironborn so Horford looked soft in comparison. Horford was big, reasonably agile, and smart. He was a pretty substantial loss.
That being said, if Spike play like he did last night and Chatman keeps making progress we might be co-favorites anyway.
December 3rd, 2014 at 10:02 AM ^
December 3rd, 2014 at 9:46 AM ^
December 3rd, 2014 at 10:04 AM ^
Horford didn't like the job of being a big man in Beilein's offense. So depending on how kindly you regarded him, he either was introspective or mopey. He had his moments but I noticed him committing cheap fouls all the time, which cuts against Beilein's strategy and probably led to a lot of criticism. I bet he would still be splitting starter minutes if he were here, but it would be with Doyle and not Morgan.
A healthy McGary would be a real difference maker with his mobility and passing. Alas it was not to be.
December 3rd, 2014 at 9:47 AM ^
December 3rd, 2014 at 10:43 AM ^
Thank you for mentioning Antoine Joubert. It made me feel young again!
December 3rd, 2014 at 9:53 AM ^
It would have been nice to have him, but he doesn't give us any real boost. His stats at UF are a bit surprising/intriguing, though.
December 3rd, 2014 at 9:54 AM ^
That Florida lost all of those games. I think Horford would help this year for depth and experience reasons, but not all that much. I don't think any of the numbers he's putting up at Florida, so far suggest that he is anything but the player we thought he was. I hope he's happier there.
December 3rd, 2014 at 9:55 AM ^
December 3rd, 2014 at 10:08 AM ^
Agree with these sentiments.
And to be clear I think going to UF - at this stage looking at his stats - was a better thing for Jon Horford. I am not that clear he would be replicating them here at UM.
My question is more from a selfish angle of having a big body who could give us 20-25 minutes a night and provide cover for Ricky Doyle to develop and not be so "relied on" which Doyle already is at this point. Dude played 15 minutes in the 2nd half last night and I am already at the point I was with Jordan Morgan last year in the last 15 games where every time Doyle is out of the game I get worried about rebounding, and interior defense and how we have no interior offense at all.
And I dont think Horford being here would have retarded Doyle's growth - guy has already dropped his body fat from 18 to 10% and already is picking up the game at a rapid rate in the 3rd week of his career. Doyle would have developed either way - he'd be getting his 15-20 minutes in games and the same practice. If anyone it would be Donnal who would have been pushed out.
December 3rd, 2014 at 10:01 AM ^
PG: Walton 25/ Albrecht 15
SG: LeVert 35/ Walton 5
SF: Irvin 35/ Chatman 5
PF: Chatman 25/ Donnal 15
C: Horford 25/ Doyle 15
That's an almost dominant lineup. Donnal is your emergency 5 with Bielfeldt coming in during a 2OT game.
December 3rd, 2014 at 10:05 AM ^
Spike 15? What have you seen which would suggest Spike only get 15 minutes?
December 3rd, 2014 at 10:13 AM ^
Thinking back to the preseason predictions we made without the benefit of seeing anyone I think the things everyone got wrong was
- The Donnal hype - last May after we exited the tourney and were talking NBA draft losses you were hearing how he was dominant offensively in practice and was ready for a huge leap
- Spike's playing time - most of us had Spike at 8-12 minutes a game and we'd play very little 2 PG backcourt
- Doyle - most of us had him as a guy who would RS if Mitch or Horford had come back with as the 3rd/4th center
Farther down the list below those 3 most of us had Dawkins getting 6-8 minutes a night behind Chatman.
So yes Spike would be playing a lot more irrespective of Horford on the team.
December 3rd, 2014 at 10:15 AM ^
I guess he thinks he'll start getting 5 a game soon.
December 3rd, 2014 at 10:47 AM ^
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December 3rd, 2014 at 11:17 AM ^
Dont know why every loves Walton so much. Everything about his game is average. Doesn't shoot consistently. Doesn't drive to the lane enough. Doesn't set up others often.
December 3rd, 2014 at 11:31 AM ^
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December 3rd, 2014 at 10:02 AM ^
If it was McGary though, definitely.
December 3rd, 2014 at 10:03 AM ^
Horford was soft, clumsy around the rim, and didn't have his head in the game ever. Glad he left
December 3rd, 2014 at 1:31 PM ^
Glad he left? Geez. While he may not have been on par with McGary or even Doyle, there's no need to say shit like that.
December 3rd, 2014 at 10:25 AM ^
Well of course it would be nice to help us to have another big man who could rebound down low. We would be better no doubt.
I mean think if we had McGary and Doyle down low.... Would be insane.
But the thing is we don't have them.. and we have to find ways without them and I think we will this year. I don't think we will make it deep into the tournament or win the Big Ten title, but it will be a solid season and something better than our football team.
December 3rd, 2014 at 10:26 AM ^
Right now, I would take Ricky Doyle over Jon Horford and Doyle is not even the starter of our team. Horford has his moments and has his skillset, but with our small ball lineup, I would rather have a devastating big man down low.
Plus, if you actually think Horford would have slowed down Kaminsky ... yeah. He certainly cannot handle him in the low post as he gets pushed off the block and Horford was mediocre at best at hedging defense.
Horford looks much better at Florida than he ever did in Ann Arbor, but I think we might be getting carried away with how that would transfer to our team.
December 3rd, 2014 at 10:34 AM ^
No, but with another year of Morgan or McGary we would be co-favorites, IMO. Obviously that doesn't mean anything b/c they aren't walking through that door, but the front-court depth at the moment is definitely worrisome.
We really need Donnal to work on finishing down low. I like his mid-range game and you can tell he's skilled, but the length of Syracuse scared the crap out of him yesterday.
When Doyle gets in foul trouble against teams with multiple bigs (and you know teams are going to target him until we show that we can effectively rotate through 3 of our big guys), we're really going to need Donnal to grow up in a hurry.
Coach B will get them there though.
December 3rd, 2014 at 10:39 AM ^
With Horford staying I believe our record would be the same. Jon's role was defined throughout his tenure here within Beilein's system. He was not going to be the dominant BIG guy that Mtich was and Doyle is becoming. Instead, he'd have added depth and leadership but would not be putting up nearly the numbers that he has with Florida. Beilein would not want Jon to play the way he is playing in Florida - it doesn't fit our system.
I think we will be a Top 3-4 team in the Big Ten this year. I believe we would have done the same with Horford here.
December 3rd, 2014 at 10:48 AM ^
Doyle vs Horford 2014 comparison:
Horford would clearly add some much needed depth and probably start, but he's not a difference maker. He's a poor offensive rebounder (9.5% vs 18.1% for Doyle), and turns the ball over a little more and is less efficient despite being a low usage player -- actually lower than Doyle (16.4% usage vs 21.1%).
Obviously, you have to take into account differences in systems, but looking at the stats, it doesn't look like Horford's made a huge leap by switching teams. His point and rebound totals are both up mostly because he's playing more minutes.
December 3rd, 2014 at 10:44 AM ^
Healthy McGary? Absolutely.
But, neither of them are here so it's a moot point. Moving on.
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December 3rd, 2014 at 10:45 AM ^
December 3rd, 2014 at 10:50 AM ^
I know we'd be a lot better off having another solid big man to rotate in the lineup. Doyle is going to be fine and keep getting better by later in the season. But, Wilson will be out 3 weeks and doesn't look nearly as ready. Bielfeldt can't jump well and is very inconsistent. Which brings me to Donnal. He needs to start picking up his game really soon. He definitely has skill. But as people have pointed out, he plays way too soft. He seems tentative and unsure of himself when either near or in the paint. I know it's still early in the season, so I'm hoping he starts to figure it out very soon.
December 3rd, 2014 at 11:07 AM ^
Donnal's problem is his weak lower body strength. Unless he gets stronger, he'll always be "soft".
December 3rd, 2014 at 11:08 AM ^
What if Trey Burke had stayed and he was a senior this year? We'd be, like, unstoppable, dude.
December 3rd, 2014 at 11:12 AM ^
Your answer can be addressed in several ways.
- Michigan would be better with Horford. At least this year. However, Horford may not have ended the year ahead of Doyle. The other thing is, Horford is happier with a different offensive set, so this was good all around.
- I think it is doubtful Michigan would have been co-favorites with Wisconsin with Horford. McGary, now that's a different hypothetical. More painful, imhe.
- I really don't care much for hypotheticals. Horford is gone. What is, is. Sports, and life, is full of so many "what if's" and "if onlys." If only McGary was here. If only RR had had Casteel as defensive coordinator. If only Michigan had won a few more games, and Gardner hadn't been injured, nor Peppers, and Clark hadn't assaulted his girlfriend. Sometimes things don't work out.
December 3rd, 2014 at 11:25 AM ^
Some of you need to look up what "dominant" means
December 3rd, 2014 at 11:29 AM ^
December 3rd, 2014 at 11:33 AM ^
Do you sit around all day trying to come up with new threads for the board? Holy shit man - take a break and enjoy life. This board will survive if you & WD don't start 30 new threads a day.
December 3rd, 2014 at 11:48 AM ^
December 3rd, 2014 at 11:49 AM ^
I think this site causes you to relog in every time to discourage threads like this ; )
December 3rd, 2014 at 11:50 AM ^
No.No.No.
The dude was a momentum killer on offense and a liability on defense. Sure he has better numbers this year than at Michigan, but Florida to date has to be the biggest disappointment so far in this early season of college basketball. The depth would be nice, but if you want a big to go out and foul or to just set screens, we have players with that ability already. Sometimes, players just don't like to face the realization that they aren't who they think they are. Do you really think John Beilein "overlooked" this guy?
December 3rd, 2014 at 1:30 PM ^
No. Wisconsin is a notch above, and still would be with Horford. But we would be in much better situation with our bigs rotations. 5 more fouls to give is always a good thing, too.
I think Horford showed spurts of potential, especially on the defense and rebounding side of things. My feeling is that he would've had a solid senior year here (8-10 ppg, 7 rpg, a block or two per game).
December 3rd, 2014 at 12:51 PM ^
December 3rd, 2014 at 1:18 PM ^
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December 3rd, 2014 at 2:32 PM ^
I can't believe anyone would say no. Horford was a rebounding monster at Michigan always (RB rate was among the best in the country, better than McGary or Morgan's) - his RB totals are just a function of minutes. The issue was offense and his role as the Beilein 5, which is just screening and rolling on offense. He was also a pretty good shot-blocker. He's a better basketball player than Jordan Morgan -- Morgan was just a far better FIT in what Beilein wants to do but Horford is going to be an NBA player and Morgan is not. Morgan was more energetic and harder working, but less skilled. Horford is the better rebounder, the better individual defender, the better shot blocker, the better shooter. People forget that Horford and McGary had reduced Morgan to 3rd stringer at one point in 2012 but then McGary's injury meant JB had to have consistency and defensive leadership and Morgan was the best man.
That's in the past though, you're asking about Now. Now, Horford would be the starter and play 30 mpg. Doyle, Donnal, Bielfeldt would be scrapping for the other 10 and the story there would be unchanged -- Doyle looks like the best man.
Michigan would be a vastly better team with Horford's rebounding, shot-blocking, experience, and offensive skills at the 5. No more quick hooks from JB as in the past. No more uncertainty. He would have tore Syracuse apart in the middle - it would have been Chatman making the cuts to the basket instead of Doyle.
Michigan would be 1B to Wisconsin's 1A.