The Problem Is Still The Offense: By The Numbers
In the aftermath of Saturday, it seems like most of the fanbases ire has been directed at Don Brown and the defense. And I admit to concluding (probably prematurely) in the middle of the game, that it's time to move on from Don Brown.
But after the dust has settled it's clear that that the blame is more on Harbaugh and the offense.
This blog talks a lot about college football having become an offensive game and it's true. You have to be able to outscore opponents because offensive schemes have becomes so good at exploiting 19 year old defenders. David Pollack pointed out on GameDay Saturday that defense no longer wins championships, it's offenses now. And it's impossible to argue that.
That said, Don Brown's defense at Michigan has NEVER had a mediocre or worse performance bailed out by the offense (but his defenses have bailed out mediocre offensive performances many times).
Put in statistical terms, Michigan has not won a game in which the opponent scored more than 25 points on Don Brown's defense in 4+ seasons*. Not one. This is during a time when games regularly go into the 30s and 40s or higher. Just this year, Alabama gave up 48 (!!) to Ole Miss...and won. Teams do this all the time now. Except Michigan.
A run down of the games that make Michigan 0-11 when Don Brown's defense gives up more than 25 points (and I'd like to point out how impressive it is to have only given up more than 25 points 11 times in 4+ years in modern college football):
>Lost 26-19 to South Carolina in 2017. Obviously a complete offensive disaster with hand off fumbles to TEs.
>Lost 27-24 to MSU Saturday because they turtled up had a non-sensical game plan (plus that wildcat!).
> Lost 28-21 to PSU in 2019 because they couldn't catch and didn't tell Patterson to keep until the second half.
> Lost 31-20 to OSU in 2017 because they still didn't have a functional QB in year 3.
> Lost 33-32 to FSU in 2016 because their line got crushed and they had no answers.
> Lost 35-16 to Bama because they couldn't get red zone TDs. Can't fully blame the offense against a Bama defense but Brown's defense gave them a chance, against the odds.
> Lost 35-14 to Wisconsin in 2019 because they were handing the ball to a DT. But this admittedly was the first game that could be pinned on the defense as they had no answer for the run game and probably would have given up more than 35 if Wisconsin needed it.
> Lost 41-15 to Florida in 2018. Had a bunch of guys sitting, forgettable game all around.
> Lost to PSU 42-13 in 2017. Defense didn't give them much of a chance but they had no QB so it wasn't even a small chance.
> Lost 56-27 to OSU in 2019. I don't think the defense was as bad as the final score here. Got a really unlucky bounce on a Dobbins fumble and gave up final two TDs on short drives after M turnovers on downs. If Haskins follows his blocker when M could have cut it to a one score game in the fourth, this could have been a very different game.
> Lost 62-39 to OSU in 2018. Ok, defense was horrible in this one.
*does not include the 45-28 win over Colorado because 7 points were scored on the offense.
Compare this to two similar programs: Texas and ND.
In that time, Texas is 12-14 (!!!!) in games in which their defense has allowed more than 25 points and Notre Dame is 5-10. Obviously, when you give up that many points, you're not likely to win, but you have to win some of them.
Also in offensive failures, in addition to these 11 losses, Michigan has lost five games in which the defense gave up 24 or fewer points in regulation (2016 Iowa, 2016 OSU, 2017 MSU, 2017 Wisconsin and 2018 ND).
Meanwhile, Brown's defense has won 7 games in which the offense failed to score more than 21 points in regulation (2016 Wisconsin, 2016 IU, 2017 IU, 2018 NW, 2018 MSU, 2019 Army, 2019 Iowa). That makes Michigan an amazing 7-12 in games since 2016 in which the offense failed to score more than 21 points in regulation (and yes that means they've failed to score over 21 in more than a third of their games in that span).
Yes, it was frustrating Saturday that it didn't seem like Brown tried to do anything different scheme-wise and perhaps waited too long to make a personnel switch, but 1) there's not a lot you can do to change the defense when your #1 corner opts out of a season in August and 2) we wouldn't even talking about this if the offense put up 42+ points like it could/should have.
Six years in, we still have not had a QB that could be considered better than merely "good" aside from the half season in which Rudock was good, unless one considers Patterson good which is hard to argue. Milton might be good, but he isn't yet and he's been either forced into his role, or perhaps worse, was the best option, which would mean yet another failure to ID and develop a four star recruit.
In year 6, the offensive game plans still look disjointed like multiple people are involved in game plans that often don't make sense. I don't know if this is a Gattis problem or Harbaugh but it ultimately rests on Harbaugh as an offensive guy.
The offense remains a much bigger problem than the defense and my hope that Harbaugh finds the ability to properly delegate that side of the ball is diminishing.
November 2nd, 2020 at 6:31 PM ^
And don’t get me started on special teams.
November 2nd, 2020 at 6:31 PM ^
Sorry, meant for this to be a Diary given its length (and that most people ignore diaries except analysis/stat nerds like me).
November 2nd, 2020 at 6:32 PM ^
Got it. We are losing games where the opponents are scoring more than we are.
November 2nd, 2020 at 6:33 PM ^
I stopped reading at “David Pollack.”
November 2nd, 2020 at 6:45 PM ^
8 punts man...
November 2nd, 2020 at 6:48 PM ^
Fire Brown! Hire Mike Tressel as DC. It would be a major out of the box hire, but he’s had success keeping OSU in check the last two years. He was demoted at MSU. Give him a DC title and let him shine. I think the offense will be dynamic next year. People need patience on offense. We are breaking in a new QB, most of the o line, and all receivers minus Bell. We need a defense that can keep OSU in check. Michigan needs to go into a mode where they are as obsessed with OSU at the level that MSU is obsessed with Michigan.
November 2nd, 2020 at 6:48 PM ^
This is not to excuse the defense. They were terrible on Saturday against a bad offense. But the OP is right. Elite teams in the modern era are supposed to have off-days on defense and still outscore opponents to win. We don't do that. Ever.
November 2nd, 2020 at 10:58 PM ^
"It used to be that good defense beats good offense. Good defense doesn't beat good offense anymore." Nick Saban.
November 2nd, 2020 at 6:49 PM ^
The problem is Jim Harbaugh does not have these players prepared to play four quarters every single game. He and his staff make bizarro game decisions that defy logic and ultimately cause us to lose games we should win and we have ZERO likelihood of EVER upsetting anyone.
November 2nd, 2020 at 6:49 PM ^
There are two problems. One, Brown refuses to make adjustments away from man press coverage when we don't have the athletes at CB to do so and have not recruited good enough in 2018 and 2019. Two, the seemingly night and day difference between the offensive game plan against Minnesota vs MSU. Did JH take over the play calling against MSU? Did Gattis just forget how to call spread concepts? These are the same questions we had at the beginning of last year. If Brown can change his style and be more flexible and we can call spread concepts like we did against Minnesota, I think we can all accept losing to a better team. It's the refusing to stop running up the middle when it's not working and refusing to get away from man press coverage when it's not working that is mind boggling and gets the fanbase frustrated.
November 2nd, 2020 at 6:56 PM ^
The loss against Penn state last year was the only time I have not been mad after. The defense stopped them in the 2nd half and the offense started to click. That's a loss I can accept. Doesn't seem like we ever make 2nd half changes
November 2nd, 2020 at 7:52 PM ^
How were you not mad. The team was poorly prepared, if i recall correctly they had to burn a TO before the first snap of the game.
November 2nd, 2020 at 7:00 PM ^
Agree completely. Brown's defense was stupid and Gattis called a terrible game. Even with Brown's stupid game, 27 points absolutely should have been enough to beat MSU. Michigan State has been stout up the gut for over a decade now and we just kept plowing into the middle of the line on every single second down. What happened to the outside runs like Corum's first touchdown? What happened to the bubble screens that Milton threw so well against Minnesota? Why is the wildcat ever a thing when you have a 250 pound running quarterback?
November 2nd, 2020 at 7:40 PM ^
I don't think bubble screens were there because MSU was playing tight. Michigan even tried that semi-RPO where Milton runs out and screens to TE that worked for chunk plays against Minnesota but was stopped for no gain both times.
They needed to spread things out and involve Milton's legs more to punish the aggressiveness. Probably needed to at least try to throw it up and have fast guys run under it a couple more times, and some other things that Seth and Brian will point out all week.
November 3rd, 2020 at 10:21 AM ^
MSU got penetration and defenders in space on more than a handful of outside runs. Ended up in more TFLs than anyone would've liked to have seen. MSU's ability to control the outside with box defenders maybe threw Gattis for a loop and maybe Gattis panicked a little. End result was run up the middle more. If Milton was better at throwing down field I don't think this would've been a problem.
November 2nd, 2020 at 7:22 PM ^
I’m wondering if Harbaugh knew how big last week’s game was and was more involved in the offensive game plan/play calls than he was in week 1? Just seems like too big of difference from week to week.
Also, I think the problems on defense are mostly recruiting-related and the problems on offense are coaching-related. We have talent on offense, but always seem to underperform that talent. Defense is just doing what they can with inferior talent, which is shutdown less talented teams and get waxed by teams with equal/better talent.
November 2nd, 2020 at 7:47 PM ^
Defense is just doing what they can with inferior talent, which is shutdown less talented teams and get waxed by teams with equal/better talent.
SDE - Aiden Hutchinson 4-star #112
DT - Carlo Kemp 4-star #310
NT - Chris Hinton 5-star #31
WDE - Kwity Paye 3-star #487
VIPER - Michael Barrett 3-star #751
LB - Joss Ross 4-star #211
LB - Cam McGrone 4-star #118
S - Dax Hill 5-star #14
S - Brad Hawkins 3-star #425
CB - Vincent Gray 3-star #700
CB - Germon Green 3-star #382
Average - 4-star 322
There are maybe 10ish teams that have more talent than that on defense, and none of them are MSU.
November 3rd, 2020 at 10:39 AM ^
CB - Vincent Gray 3-star #700
CB - Germon Green 3-star #382
There's the problem. Have all the studs you want, defense is about not having weak links. 2018 OSU should've taught you that one.
November 2nd, 2020 at 7:53 PM ^
The inferior talent argument only holds up against OSU. The players we have would likely start at all other Big Ten schools or be on the two deep at certain positions at PSU or Wisconsin. Even our lackluster corners and defensive tackles would get serious playing time elsewhere. Outside of OSU games where they have the talent advantage, coaching and overconfidence are the problems. The Michigan players know they’re more talented than players at non OSU / PSU schools, and seem to think they will win by showing up.
November 2nd, 2020 at 8:11 PM ^
The Michigan players know they’re more talented than players at non OSU / PSU schools, and seem to think they will win by showing up.
I agree with the fact that UM is more talented than anyone but OSU and is about even with PSU, but I don't think it's fair to put the loss on the players. I don't feel like they didn't play hard. They were put in bad positions by the coaches asking them to either do something that they are not good at or put them in a good position to be successful. Playing a 3-3-5 and doing man press coverage despite them struggling is all on the coaches.
November 2nd, 2020 at 9:20 PM ^
The loss is 100% on the coaches. Young players always have the capacity to underestimate opponents and not prepare as well as they could have for games where they think a W is a foregone conclusion. Coaches need to have a pulse on the team’s focus and energy level. The players will put in the effort on game day, but if they didn’t pay attention in practice or film sessions because MSU < Rutgers, then the coaches needed to remind the team how much MSU hates them and that this game is their Super Bowl. Michigan wasn’t ready, and I think Milton was serious when he said he didn’t know the MSU LB’s name. That shows a lack of focus on the opponent. That’s on the coaches.
November 2nd, 2020 at 9:28 PM ^
Sometimes I wonder if JH's whole "attack each day..." and "get 1% better every day" stuff means he quite literally treats everything the same. Every opponent is the same. Game day is no different than practice. This doesn't work in real life nor should it. Yes, you want to practice hard and you still want to play hard against every opponent. But, you have to get up for big games and you have to get up more for games than practice. This is a theme that I see with JH teams. They never get up. Maybe they're wasting all their energy in every day less important stuff and have no energy left on game day and/or for rivals.
November 3rd, 2020 at 11:09 AM ^
and players have expressed something similar in the past. If Jim is going to be the CEO head coach, he really needs to have a different overall approach, let his coordinators do their work and for crying out loud, bring some fun back to the program.
Maybe the "other football" doesn't translate, but often, when a team is physically and mentally down, coaches/managers will step away from the tactics and technical aspects of the game and instead look to bring some elements of fun back to the team as a way to free the players to work without that increased level of pressure. If I'm Jim, this is what I'm doing right now.
November 3rd, 2020 at 11:48 AM ^
+100 for a concise summary of my frustrations with M football. Stubbornness in not putting the players in position to succeed on either side of the ball vs. MSU. We've seen it many times before. Manball and press-man coverage need to go the fuck away.
November 2nd, 2020 at 6:50 PM ^
Like I said in another post, this team had no fire Saturday. They played scared and afraid. Seems like there's always been that vocal leader, and this team doesn't have one. Someone needs to pump up the team to play with all that they got.
This is probably said after every single loss, but maybe this loss is what this team needed. They all probably overlooked MSU because we had SO MUCH hype after the Minnesota blowout, which is not looking as good anymore.
Can we get Charles Woodson to come in and yell at the entire team(coaches included) about how embarrassing the loss was?
November 2nd, 2020 at 7:02 PM ^
The lack of fire was evident, but I don't think it was fear. Honestly, I think we thought we could just roll in and smoke them with little effort. The offensive gameplan was boring as hell and we had no wrinkles on defense. It seems like we got caught up thinking we were really good after crushing a bad Minnesota team and we thought MSU was worse than they actually were because they turned the ball over 8 times in a game. Remember when Ohio State rolled into West Lafayette a few years ago and got obliterated by an inferior, but jacked up Purdue team? MSU was motivated and prepared. We were flat.
November 3rd, 2020 at 1:31 AM ^
What also got buried under the hoopla against Minnesota was that their special teams kicker essentially was a band-member that they threw pads on
Our field position advantage on special teams was simply absurd.
November 2nd, 2020 at 6:52 PM ^
I keep hearing how fast our offense is but have yet to see a wide open receiver deep. They couldn't even get yards after catch against msu
November 2nd, 2020 at 7:16 PM ^
Just a guess, but I don't think Milton throws a good deep ball.
November 2nd, 2020 at 8:26 PM ^
We've said that about every QB that's played for JH, maybe there's some other problem.
November 3rd, 2020 at 12:27 AM ^
Will for sure give Milton a break he is so new.....but wow, I’m astonished by how far off those balls are.
November 3rd, 2020 at 2:04 AM ^
In High School, he never once ended a season with a completion percentage of 50% or higher. He was always going to be a project, and he was always going to be a gamble. Anyone assuming that he would automatically get substantially more accurate just because of coaching and practice was not thinking logically. If accuracy could always be taught, there would be 20 NFL-level QBs every year-- a big body and a strong arm aren't all *that* rare. And even though he'll improve some, his opponents are bigger and faster and more talented than in High School, too-- "normal" improvement is a wash, you have to have exceptional improvement if you're starting at a deficit (like a sub 50% completion rate).
He may become a great QB, but this is his 3rd year in the program, in an age when freshmen win national titles and Heisman trophies. He could still become the QB Michigan wants him to be... but the clock is ticking.
November 3rd, 2020 at 2:04 AM ^
This double post is offered up to the angry MGoBlog ancient technology Gods.
November 2nd, 2020 at 7:28 PM ^
We have had multiple wide open receivers in both games.. milton cannot throw a deep pass
November 2nd, 2020 at 11:08 PM ^
He can throw it, just no guarantee it lands somewhere near a receiver.
November 2nd, 2020 at 6:53 PM ^
There are a lot of problems. The whole thing is a mess
November 2nd, 2020 at 6:58 PM ^
Thank you for taking the time to gather the info and post. I don’t often post here because many of the responses are frequently cringeworthy. There’s likely a ton of engineers aboard.
November 2nd, 2020 at 7:05 PM ^
Offense, Defense, Special Teams... complete tire fire all the way around! If we manage to win at IU, I might have a different take, however as of right now, Im onboard the "lets make a coaching change" bandwagon!
November 2nd, 2020 at 7:18 PM ^
This is the right approach. Decisions should be made weighing heavily on the last data point.
November 2nd, 2020 at 7:09 PM ^
The defense was ass and Don Brown should have been fired after the first OSU blowout.
That said, the offense deserves its fair share of criticism. We've been through it all before, and we saw it against MSU once again. If anything, it was even more frustrating, because we saw a more evolved -- though still Harbaugh-influenced -- game plan against Minnesota. It feels (I know, feelingsball) that Gattis has to wonder week-to-week if he can run his stuff.
These numbers just bear it out. Are we the last decent program to still hang on to stone-age football concepts? Or are Iowa and Wisconsin right there with us? I said last year that we were Iowa with better personnel, but now the personnel gap is shrinking.
And one more time.....we can have a competent coaching search to find someone to get us to 9-3 pretty easily. And we might just improve! If we don't, so what? We're going nowhere fast with Harbaugh and Brown.
November 2nd, 2020 at 7:16 PM ^
Seeing the wildcat still being used the way it's being used this year seems like a very "Harbaugh" thing and tells me this shouldn't all be put on Gattis. I cringe every time I see the wildcat formation being run out onto the field. I really don't think Harbaugh knows how to truly turn over the offensive keys to someone. Running up the middle when it isn't working, wildcat formation... maybe I'm wrong but these aren't things Gattis was known for. These are things we've seen consistently since 2015 though.
November 2nd, 2020 at 7:25 PM ^
This is an amazing point. This year, many of us have liked the set up and offensive scheme. However, we still have a young QB who was hurried on throws but still played fairly well considering the OL was stale mated by a team who's back was against the wall. What a surprise. Many of us thought the game would be a cake walk. Guess what, state played like it was a rivalry. Young line couldn't do it. Many of us wanted different play calls. I say we lost the game in the trenches.
That said, I still believe in Ed Warriner. He will do a job in the long haul, unfortunately we started the season right smack in the Big Schedule with no room for error.
November 2nd, 2020 at 7:28 PM ^
Great post, helps with some perspective. Thanks.
November 2nd, 2020 at 7:31 PM ^
We are Iowa now. Accept it.
November 2nd, 2020 at 8:40 PM ^
This is wrong. We're not Iowa, they're currently 0-2 and haven't won the easy division in 5 seasons. Our low, average, and high points are all better than Iowa.
We are Penn State. They've lost 4 in a row to OSU and haven't been close the last two games. That one B1G championship from 2016 is fading quickly. Michigan and PSU have split their last four games. Until OSU comes back to earth, M-PSU is going to be for second place in the Big Ten East most years.
November 2nd, 2020 at 9:23 PM ^
They’ll be playing for 5th place this year. IU will be second place and MSU and Rutgers already played for 3rd place. Maryland might contend for 5th place, too. Time will tell.
November 2nd, 2020 at 7:37 PM ^
I agree, MSU was crowding the line working against our running game. There should have been a lot of open looks in that MSU secondary for big yardage and scoring. I have know idea why our offense could not score 50 on MSU! Pathetic!
November 2nd, 2020 at 7:39 PM ^
Yea... the defense is definitely still a problem.
November 2nd, 2020 at 7:51 PM ^
+1. Glad to see it said because i totally agree. The defense is good --- not ultra-elite --- and prone to giving up back breaking plays at the worst times. The offense is anemic and goes into a shell any time we play anyone with a pulse, and their shitty play only makes it worse for the defense.
November 2nd, 2020 at 7:52 PM ^
Michigan beat Illinois last year 42-25. Also, had 2016 MSU simply kicked a FG instead of trying to lose with dignity Michigan would have won that game 30-24. Again, I get the larger point that the offense struggles in losses, but 24 points seems like a somewhat-arbitrary number to pick as a cut-off.