The Problem Is Still The Offense: By The Numbers
In the aftermath of Saturday, it seems like most of the fanbases ire has been directed at Don Brown and the defense. And I admit to concluding (probably prematurely) in the middle of the game, that it's time to move on from Don Brown.
But after the dust has settled it's clear that that the blame is more on Harbaugh and the offense.
This blog talks a lot about college football having become an offensive game and it's true. You have to be able to outscore opponents because offensive schemes have becomes so good at exploiting 19 year old defenders. David Pollack pointed out on GameDay Saturday that defense no longer wins championships, it's offenses now. And it's impossible to argue that.
That said, Don Brown's defense at Michigan has NEVER had a mediocre or worse performance bailed out by the offense (but his defenses have bailed out mediocre offensive performances many times).
Put in statistical terms, Michigan has not won a game in which the opponent scored more than 25 points on Don Brown's defense in 4+ seasons*. Not one. This is during a time when games regularly go into the 30s and 40s or higher. Just this year, Alabama gave up 48 (!!) to Ole Miss...and won. Teams do this all the time now. Except Michigan.
A run down of the games that make Michigan 0-11 when Don Brown's defense gives up more than 25 points (and I'd like to point out how impressive it is to have only given up more than 25 points 11 times in 4+ years in modern college football):
>Lost 26-19 to South Carolina in 2017. Obviously a complete offensive disaster with hand off fumbles to TEs.
>Lost 27-24 to MSU Saturday because they turtled up had a non-sensical game plan (plus that wildcat!).
> Lost 28-21 to PSU in 2019 because they couldn't catch and didn't tell Patterson to keep until the second half.
> Lost 31-20 to OSU in 2017 because they still didn't have a functional QB in year 3.
> Lost 33-32 to FSU in 2016 because their line got crushed and they had no answers.
> Lost 35-16 to Bama because they couldn't get red zone TDs. Can't fully blame the offense against a Bama defense but Brown's defense gave them a chance, against the odds.
> Lost 35-14 to Wisconsin in 2019 because they were handing the ball to a DT. But this admittedly was the first game that could be pinned on the defense as they had no answer for the run game and probably would have given up more than 35 if Wisconsin needed it.
> Lost 41-15 to Florida in 2018. Had a bunch of guys sitting, forgettable game all around.
> Lost to PSU 42-13 in 2017. Defense didn't give them much of a chance but they had no QB so it wasn't even a small chance.
> Lost 56-27 to OSU in 2019. I don't think the defense was as bad as the final score here. Got a really unlucky bounce on a Dobbins fumble and gave up final two TDs on short drives after M turnovers on downs. If Haskins follows his blocker when M could have cut it to a one score game in the fourth, this could have been a very different game.
> Lost 62-39 to OSU in 2018. Ok, defense was horrible in this one.
*does not include the 45-28 win over Colorado because 7 points were scored on the offense.
Compare this to two similar programs: Texas and ND.
In that time, Texas is 12-14 (!!!!) in games in which their defense has allowed more than 25 points and Notre Dame is 5-10. Obviously, when you give up that many points, you're not likely to win, but you have to win some of them.
Also in offensive failures, in addition to these 11 losses, Michigan has lost five games in which the defense gave up 24 or fewer points in regulation (2016 Iowa, 2016 OSU, 2017 MSU, 2017 Wisconsin and 2018 ND).
Meanwhile, Brown's defense has won 7 games in which the offense failed to score more than 21 points in regulation (2016 Wisconsin, 2016 IU, 2017 IU, 2018 NW, 2018 MSU, 2019 Army, 2019 Iowa). That makes Michigan an amazing 7-12 in games since 2016 in which the offense failed to score more than 21 points in regulation (and yes that means they've failed to score over 21 in more than a third of their games in that span).
Yes, it was frustrating Saturday that it didn't seem like Brown tried to do anything different scheme-wise and perhaps waited too long to make a personnel switch, but 1) there's not a lot you can do to change the defense when your #1 corner opts out of a season in August and 2) we wouldn't even talking about this if the offense put up 42+ points like it could/should have.
Six years in, we still have not had a QB that could be considered better than merely "good" aside from the half season in which Rudock was good, unless one considers Patterson good which is hard to argue. Milton might be good, but he isn't yet and he's been either forced into his role, or perhaps worse, was the best option, which would mean yet another failure to ID and develop a four star recruit.
In year 6, the offensive game plans still look disjointed like multiple people are involved in game plans that often don't make sense. I don't know if this is a Gattis problem or Harbaugh but it ultimately rests on Harbaugh as an offensive guy.
The offense remains a much bigger problem than the defense and my hope that Harbaugh finds the ability to properly delegate that side of the ball is diminishing.
November 3rd, 2020 at 2:17 PM ^
Yes, Michigan won against Illinois last year and the 25 the defense gave up is the most Michigan has given up in a win since Don Brown arrived 4+ years ago. Hence, they're 0-11 in games in which they give up more than 25 points as detailed above.
The cutoff is somewhat arbitrary but the idea was to go back and see if Michigan's offense had ever "picked up the defense" so to speak. Won a game in which the defense played poorly. I first started thinking about this after the PSU game last year when people were furious about the KJ Hamler bombs and Don Brown was the object of the fanbases ire once again, and I was like, yeah, it wasn't a perfect game but they only gave up 28 on the road to a good team. And I started to wonder when was the last time the offense kind of single handedly carried the team. The defense seems to do it frequently (see Army and Iowa just last year).
So the cutoff was set at a point where on one side, I felf like it's fair to say the defense didn't play great per se (26 or higher) and on the other where you almost expect to win if you're a halfway decent team in modern football (25 or below).
And the eye test sort of confirmed the cutoff. In all the games I listed where Michigan allowed more than 25 points in regulation, the defense didn't play great and needed to the offense to play moderately well to win. In none of them did the offense even play moderately well.
On the other hand, none of the games in which the defense gave up 25 or fewer would I say they played poorly and needed to be "picked up" by the offense.
In that Illinois game, Michigan's defense only have up 256 yards (just 6.6 yards per pass and 1.5!! ypc). Michigan's defense was mostly dominant and the only reason they gave up some points is that Illinois scored a short field TD after the offense fumbled. So certainly not an example of the offense winning a game for the defense.
Similar with the MSU game in 2016. The defense was dominant until a late rally by MSU in mop up time.
The exercise was to find a game in which the defense didn't play great but the offense made up for it. It has amazingly never happened while Don Brown's been here and then his unit allows teams to score in the 20s and people blame him when we lose and it's like, um, the offense can also try to score too.
November 2nd, 2020 at 7:53 PM ^
Thank you. Thank you for putting in the work to do this analysis. Fire them all. Reboot and hope again.
November 2nd, 2020 at 8:06 PM ^
Helpful post, you definitely improved my opinion of the defense (but still, 3rd and long...)
November 2nd, 2020 at 8:17 PM ^
One particular number that bothers me right now as we walk towards our meeting with Indiana is the 5.3 yards per play we allow on defense. Granted, this is two games of data and in most years, you would rightfully balk at this being concerning right now perhaps, but watching the play on Saturday in particular, I am now admittedly nervous about Indiana and our ability to get torched alive in the backfield, which much of that number is happening.
November 2nd, 2020 at 9:09 PM ^
Whop Philyor has to be licking his chops after watching Michigan/MSU film.
November 3rd, 2020 at 2:39 PM ^
I don't disagree with that. The secondary was already thin and when Ambry opted out, it felt dire.
But it was still 27 points Saturday. It was a very winnable game. And if they give up 28 to IU, they should still win on Saturday. They have vastly superior talent on offense compared to IU defense. The offensive coaches have to show up.
But yeah, if they give up 42+...I cringe to think about it.
November 2nd, 2020 at 8:26 PM ^
Offensively, is it Gattis? Or is it Harbaugh still pulling some of Gattis’ strings? Lack of playmakers? Lack of QB? Subpar o-line? All of the above?
November 2nd, 2020 at 8:30 PM ^
Gatis or HB didn't coach the OL.
November 3rd, 2020 at 2:54 PM ^
I don't know the answer to the first two questions but it's pretty clear that whatever the dynamic is between Gattis and Harbaugh it's not working, which makes Harbaugh the ultimate problem. If Gattis is doing this, he's the wrong guy and Harbaugh made a bad hire. If Harbaugh is meddling, he should stop. That doesn't necessarily mean if he does stop, Gattis will be fine. So, it's a mess.
And there's definitely still a QB problem, which is really again in Harbaugh. He's either failed to recruit or develop a good QB for going on 6 years now. And that's not to say Milton won't be good, but he's not yet despite being thrust into this spot because of past failures.
November 2nd, 2020 at 8:49 PM ^
Well, right now it seems Michigan is playing too many guys on offense. I guess they're trying to keep guys happy with playing time. Though I feel it prevents them from being able to run a real up tempo offense every now and then.
I mean, there's a substitute brigade after almost every play, which gives the defense time to rest and gather themselves. Many of the successful college football teams run a bunch of very fast up tempo plays or even drives throughout the course of a game.
Harbaugh just doesn't seem to care much for utilizing and mastering that part of today's college offenses. Some people will say it's because of Milton, but Michigan wasn't doing it much last season either.
I agree with others who have stated that Harbaugh still seems to have his fingerprints on this offense.
November 3rd, 2020 at 2:59 PM ^
I don't think this is the problem. They have a green QB who doesn't go through progressions and seemingly can't throw a deep ball, they had a disjointed OL Saturday (and there's no rotation there), and the play calling was abysmal.
Other than the drops, the skill guys were fine.
November 2nd, 2020 at 8:53 PM ^
I’m too lazy to look admittedly, are any of our receivers over 6’2?
November 2nd, 2020 at 10:30 PM ^
None that I can remember. It's too bad that not one member of the 2017 WR class stuck around all four years. Nico or Black would be great right now. Most people probable turned the broadcast off, but after the game I heard Urban Meyer commenting on how all or receivers are short and fast but not getting open. And of course, when they are open, Milton missed.
November 2nd, 2020 at 9:18 PM ^
I was going to agree with you until you brought a Big 12 team in as a comparison.
November 2nd, 2020 at 9:27 PM ^
OSU 2018 - as bad as was the pass coverage, the offense started with a three and out by running into the strength of the OSU defense. 3 dropped passes eliminated 3 first downs and led to one blocked punt. Offense did not do its job either and lost the game every bit if not more than the defense.
November 2nd, 2020 at 9:40 PM ^
I was able to get behind running the wildcat with a player like Peppers. Haskins makes ZERO sense.
November 2nd, 2020 at 9:41 PM ^
Defensive Tackle is a huge problem. OSU rolls 6 guys. we don't even have 6 DT's and we lose them. Clemson has 11 DTs and they roll them. they get the best guys year in and year out.
How many DT's do we have coming in 2021? 0 How many did we recruit in 2020? 0
And now this game has cost us Rayshaun Benny!!
WTF is Shaun Nua doing? He can't get one DT?
it's nice the our low 3 star corners get playing time. Next year will be better. If these guys are slow why not put in the freshman? Why not embarrass them and get them playing time?
While the points are valid the defensive doesn't get a pass.
November 2nd, 2020 at 11:26 PM ^
I think the greatest indictment of the offense from a fan’s perspective is knowing that once MSU scored to go up 27-17 that the game was over despite there being over 5 minutes left and UM having all three timeouts.
I knew and so did everyone watching that UM had zero chance of operating a coherent 2 minute drill type offense that would leave them enough time to get it back again.
Nice job OP with the stats. I thought maybe I was forgetting a game during Harbaugh’s tenure where the offense bailed out the defense. Thanks for confirming that it has NEVER once happened.
November 3rd, 2020 at 6:00 AM ^
Going into the season, we were doomed from the get go with the belief that the hype coming from camp from Joe Milton. Personally, I didn’t understand why when we saw his debut last year. He could still be good but he needs A LOT of work. At this point, I’m not sure what the issue is: defense is just horrible, or Don Brown. I will put it in DBs hands since the D looks like it has been constantly regressing and the lack of in-game change. The idea that JH can’t win big games but can win the expected games is out with this loss. JH won’t let Gattis run the O, DB just wants man coverage with below par players, and JH won’t change. It’s beyond frustrating running this old school style football. It clearly doesn’t win games
November 3rd, 2020 at 7:00 AM ^
100% offense. Its not a defense wins championships anymore. Have a defense that creates loss of yards and turnovers and just make sure you score a ton of points on offense.
November 3rd, 2020 at 7:19 AM ^
I tend to agree with this I believe people have people a little softer with the offense because of it being a new qb and it was his second game. If you look at this board we have slammed the offense many times but I had built in expectations of bonehead plays with a new qb.
The defense, while losing some key guys, seems to be making the same technical errors over and over and over and over. I mean if a young CB just screwed up a coverage and got scorched...it happens. But it's the same penalties, the same issues over and over.
I think we'd all agree we are not happy with the "O" but they have a longer leash right now (emphasis on right now).
November 3rd, 2020 at 8:08 AM ^
I've mostly stayed off the board, and away from comments, since Saturday. But I do wish I had gotten in on this post earlier. It's a really good post that highlights just how effective Brown has been - they guy has had a top 5 defense here for four out of five years, and that odd year was STILL top 10! We've all said it in the past: the offense MUST help out. That said, you have to design a scheme around the players you have, especially if you're not crooting the players you need for your scheme. This is where Don has been failing, he doesn't have the DT's or CB's he needs for his scheme. If his assistants aren't doing the job (ie: ID'ing the right guys or teaching them well) then he needs to fix that. But this year the press man needs to be scrapped, it isn't working. He deserves next year to get things 'fixed' (as it were, considering the overall effectiveness of his defenses to date). But serious (and permanent for this year) changes need to be made, or his job should be on the block.
Offensively, JH has worked hard over the years to build something tangible. He's changed crootin' goals to get players fit for one OC, then another, then another. Finally, we seem to have a roster filled with players that fit the OC's scheme. We've seen it when it works, and have all been elated with those results. So what happened Saturday? I wish I knew... All I can think is that the coaches took MSU lightly and reduced the on-field workouts/practices to guard against C-19. There wasn't any on-field coordination from the offense, at all. Missed assignments, bad timing, poor play calling centered on basic staples... Nothing new, nothing practiced. The defense appears to have defaulted back to the base scheme, also. I can't help but think they just didn't practice/game plan for the game because they thought it would be a cake walk.
November 3rd, 2020 at 8:17 AM ^
Offense put up a lot of yards Saturday, but a bunch of them were when MSU went to the prevent.
And 24 points that included a late TD MSU practically conceded to us is not great. Consider that MSU lost 8 starters off their defense and were playing a new system you have to think we put up at least 40.
I think MSU getting Barnett back to coach the DBs was big for them, he's a great DB coach and their defensive backs covered our receivers well. And their D Line is all new guys, but they more than held up. Simmons was an overlooked player last year, I think he had 90 tackles and 15 tackles for loss, so it's not like he came out of the blue. That other LB they have is a former walk on, Harvey, he looked really good for them too. Regardless, that was a defense with 8 new starters all learning a new scheme, we had just put up 56 on a Minnesota defense that was supposed to be at least average. 24 points, very few explosive plays, and a loss.
November 3rd, 2020 at 8:40 AM ^
I know the OP isnt saying that it's exclusively the offense but if you think you are going to run with an Urban Meyer or Ryan Day offense you are kidding yourself. How many times do you hear the phrase defense wins football games. Don Brown's defense has failed multiple times against the best competition and it is starting to look that that has now leaked into sub par competition. I doubt anybody out there wants to make a case that our defense should not have been able to hang with MSU's offense.
November 3rd, 2020 at 9:38 AM ^
the criticism is heavy on coach Brown because of his inability to adapt, and because he was exposed yet again vs. a supposedly team with lower talent. Extrapolation to the schedule ahead = BPONE galore.
I do agree, however, the offense was the most disappointing. Partially because of the crazy expectations following Minnesota and because they went back to trying to force the plays that just weren't working all game, instead of taking advantage of the opponents weakness (outside).
November 3rd, 2020 at 10:47 AM ^
No, it's everything.
You don't give up 6 deep balls and win, especially to a pedestrian offense that will score 3 points in Iowa City. I'm guessing SP+ big play D is putrid--again.
You don't get out punted by 14 yards per and win when there are a lot of punts.
You don't get 3 points on first and goal and win.
Offensive struggles you mentioned are certainly part of it.
November 3rd, 2020 at 11:00 AM ^
Spot on. Brown's defense has not been good enough to go undefeated (especially vs OSU), but it contains the scoring enough that UM should win 1-2 more games every year with a better offense.
LSU scored under 30 once vs Bama and they surrendered over 24 points 7X and over 30 4X - national champs with a defense that couldn't shutdown half of their competitors but just outscored them. Alabama scored under 30 points twice last year with 24 and 29 when they were curb-stomping two teams into shutouts and shutdown the offense. Clemson scored under 30 twice in a 29-23 win over OSU (nearly lost in the last minute) and 25 in a loss to LSU. OSU scored under 30 twice in that loss to CU and 28 in a win vs PSU.
November 3rd, 2020 at 11:53 AM ^
Folks, don't get wrapped up in whether offense or defense is the problem here. It's both.
November 4th, 2020 at 5:28 PM ^
November 4th, 2020 at 5:40 PM ^
"Yes, it was frustrating Saturday that it didn't seem like Brown tried to do anything different scheme-wise and perhaps waited too long to make a personnel switch, but 1) there's not a lot you can do to change the defense when your #1 corner opts out of a season in August and 2) we wouldn't even talking about this if the offense put up 42+ points like it could/should have."
This seems silly. There's not a lot you can do? How bout have cover 2 in your playbook?