Prediction time: will Michigan BBall do enough to make the tourney?

Submitted by Dan Man on

It sounds like we are very slightly on the right side of the bubble with 6 games remaining.  I think we will win one of our two tough home games (Wisc or Purdue) and three of our four road games (Minn, Rutgers, Northwestern, Nebraska), which will put into the Big Dance.  Whatever we do in the B1G tourney will be gravy (i.e., an opportunity to help our seeding).

What say you, Mgocommunity?  Will Michigan be dancing in March?

Wolverine Devotee

February 12th, 2017 at 10:24 PM ^

Of the 3 tough games left where we're surely be underdogs, Purdue is one I wouldn't be surprised if we win.

Shane McMahon squanders his talent, as we saw last year when we out-rebounded them. 

jmblue

February 13th, 2017 at 9:29 AM ^

Three wins (plus one in the BTT) could do it.   Four makes us pretty much a lock.

I do think we will do it.  We're seeing guys step it up.  Walton obviously is raising his game.  Wagner's avoiding the silly fouls.  MAAR is playing really tough defense.  Simpson is finding the game slowing down.  I like where we're headed.

 

SpikeFan2016

February 13th, 2017 at 11:19 AM ^

This is where all of our stupidly close losses (Virginia Tech, Iowa, Wisconsin, plus a clunker vs. a shitty OSU team) come in as killers. Just one of those wins and we are looking pretty comfortable right now as 3 wins alone would likely put us in. 

 

I think if we finish 9-9 in the Big Ten we will probably need two wins in the Big Ten tournament. A win over a bottom 3 team in the conference won't do it. 

RobM_24

February 12th, 2017 at 11:16 PM ^

No, it was Irvin's team one possession and Walton's the next. There would be possessions where Irvin would dribble the air out of the ball ... or Irvin would try to run some half-assed pick and roll and end up with a fading jumper from the elbow ... or Irvin would have the ball with the shot clock winding down and shoot a 30 foot jumper. It has to be Walton controlling everything, and Irvin needs to be Duncan Robinson with better defense -- strictly a kickout shooter who can get some backdoor cuts when the defense falls asleep. The only other guys that should be dribbling the ball around the perimeter are MAAR when he wants to drive, or Xavier when they're letting Walton play 2 guard. The days of letting Irvin try to find his shot need to be over. You can't let him go 1 for 14 and 0 for 8. If he's off, bench him.

ST3

February 13th, 2017 at 12:27 AM ^

Johnson scored 5 points and Blackmon had 6. I think Irvin guarded one of those two. He held Eron Harris to 4 points in the first meeting with State. He's doing a good job on defense ever since they let him guard guards instead of power forwards. He's got the length to disrupt a guard's game.

I was a little surprised (well, not really) to see him jack up his first shot from 20+ feet. I thought everybody knew that when you are slumping the thing you want to do is get going from the inside first. I don't mind Zak driving the basket, but his dribble-pull-up game just is completely lost, to the point where he's airballing more shots than he is making. I hope he gets it figured out soon.

matty blue

February 14th, 2017 at 9:49 AM ^

both on his defense, and on the pull-up 20-footer...well, mostly.  irvin can be a good (if streaky) shooter, and i don't mind him firing one up as a heat-check.  if he's feeling it, great, keep it coming.

he'll come around.

RobM_24

February 13th, 2017 at 2:36 AM ^

I think you can tell by who is controlling the ball at the end of the shot clock, and who is running the pick and roll. It's not Irvin anymore. That's why we're not seeing nearly as many long twos from Irvin, or drives to the lane where he gets swatted at (or more accurately, below) the rim multiple times a game.

Whole Milk

February 13th, 2017 at 10:04 AM ^

To say he needs to be "Duncan Robinson with better defense" is a poor comparison in my opinion. I honestly think Irvin had the absolute worst shooting performance I have seen from a Michigan player in quite some time. Not only was he 1-for-8, but it wasn't even like he was close on any of his misses. I think the time has passed for anyone to expect Irvin to be the shooter we all want him to be. And it's not like it's been an anomoly, he has shot 12.9% from the field and 13.3% from three in his last 4 games. He absolutely cannot be a part of the offense in any substantial amount going forward.

My completely worthless solution for this problem, which goes along with your suggestion: Let him continue to be like MAAR on the defensive end which he has done really well recently, but switch their usage numbers. At least when MAAR dribbles the air out of the ball, it usually ends with a drive to the basket for a layup .

RobM_24

February 13th, 2017 at 11:12 AM ^

I wouldn't be crushed if he was eliminated from the offense altogether either, so don't get me wrong. I like what X and MAAR have been doing lately, and I like seeing Walton get some run at 2 guard to give him a "rest" while X hounds the opposing PG on defense and creates off the dribble for the offense. There was a time when Zak was more Robinson-like. His freshman year he shot 4 threes a game at a 42.5% clip; sophomore year was almost 7 3PA/game at 35.5%. That was when he was more of a wing shooter. The last two years he became more of a focal point of the offense and had the ball in his hands more. The results have been jr year 4.6 3PA/game at 29.8% and sr year 4.0 at 31.7%. He just needs to be a wing shooter like Aubrey Dawkins was. Not a guy who handles the ball like THJr or Stauskas.

YouRFree

February 12th, 2017 at 11:15 PM ^

I don't think Beilein has to do that. He only need to make sure Irvin knows that if he's not in hot hand, you will send in other players who may contribute more positively in game. If Irvin is hot, we can keep him on the floor. I think it's fair enough at this point. This should be Walton's team, as usual as Beilein's system, it's always the PG's team. Irvin's hero ball doesn't work as planned, we should move on.

RobM_24

February 13th, 2017 at 12:49 AM ^

Basically, I viewed Irvin and Walton as being options 1A & 1B during the first half of the season. The success of the team (and offense) were directly tied to whether or not Irvin was shooting well. Lately, Walton has been option 1. The 2nd option is whoever he chooses to run pick&roll with, post feed to, or kickout to -- whether that be MAAR, Irvin, Robinson, Wagner, Wilson, etc.. Irvin and Walton aren't trading off possessions anymore like they're Kyle Lowry and Demar DeRozan. It's leading to much a more consistent flow of offense, with fewer scoring droughts. Hopefully Zak can get back to where he was as an underclassmen where he can get hot and give you multiple 3's from the wing when he's hot, but he doesn't heave 14 missed shots on nights when he clearly isn't on his game.

funkywolve

February 12th, 2017 at 11:05 PM ^

The good news is. like today, they have a couple road games left against other teams fighting for an ncaa berth, Minnesota and NU.  UM has the opportunity to kill two birds with one stone in those games - hurt the opponents chances of making the tourney while helping the Wolverines chance of making it.  With Purdue and Wisky they have a couple chances to get those 'statement' wins.  

The bad news:  with no Big Ten teams in the initial release of the Top 16 teams, the NCAA tourney committee doesn't think think too highly of the Big Ten right now.

Bigku22

February 12th, 2017 at 10:34 PM ^

I. Have. Absolutely. No. Idea. 

Don't think there's a Michigan team I can remember where I've had less of a feel game to game as to how we would perform. 

So I'll call it a coin flip. 

The Fugitive

February 12th, 2017 at 10:37 PM ^

I think so. We have a chance for at least 2 more wins over ranked opponents and who knows, we could have a chance for a third if NW is ranked again after beating Wisconsin.

SMU beating #11 Cincinnati helps us, too.

We must beat Rutgers and one of either Wisconsin or Purdue.

Looking way far ahead, I think a second round game vs Villanova would be fun. Make it a shootout and see what happens.

smwilliams

February 12th, 2017 at 10:52 PM ^

Honestly, no.



And while I'm actually really proud of a team that could've packed it in after the home loss to OSU and instead fought back, I just think the schedule is too difficult down the stretch. Michigan has a RPI in the low 70s right now. That's dangerous when it comes to getting a bid.



They basically have to split Wisky/Purdue, split @Minny/@NW, and not slip up against Rutgers or Nebraska (both on the road) AND win a game against a fellow bubble team in the first round of the BTT.



It's certainly doable. I'll be thrilled if they do get in especially after I (and many others) left them for dead.



My prediction is this:



19-14, NIT bid with a run in that tournament...



What will happen:

TrueBlue2003

February 13th, 2017 at 12:46 AM ^

even 40s.  Regardless, it'll be enough if they finish at 9-9 in conference and win the first game of BTT (in which they'll be favored).

Odds are about as close to 50/50 as it gets if you assume the team that comes out Thursday is as likely to the team that lost to OSU as it is to be the team that beat MSU just 3 days apart in the same building.

Ty Butterfield

February 12th, 2017 at 10:56 PM ^

Can't blame anyone who is in the "wait and see" camp. Team is so bipolar I have no idea which one will show up. Last two games were solid but they have not been consistent up to this point. We have all been fooled before.

BigBlue02

February 12th, 2017 at 11:57 PM ^

Are they really bipolar though? I see quite a few people saying that but they have played pretty consistently all year. They played awfully against Illinois and Ohio State, but other than that, they have looked good in most games. They have actually played pretty well since the players meeting before the Nebraska game last month.