A Potential Statistic Of Concern?
I am cautiously optimistic about the football team's contiuned development, but just so we don't get ahead of ourselves.
Here is one sobering statistic:
Filtering out garbage time, Michigan's passing success rate on passing downs (second-and-7 or more, third-and-5 or more) is just 22%, 120th in FBS.
[link to the ESPN article]
It was posted at 7:45pm ET on Monday, so I assume it is up to date and includes the Wisconsin game.
Obviously that has got to improve, and hopefully it will. The key will to be to improve on this in the next two games (and the bye week), in order to be ready for the last five games.
EDIT - Hopefully, the OP does not mind the title change. One statistic does not really constitute an entire "glass half empty" view - LSA
October 5th, 2021 at 5:11 AM ^
“Thanks for being here.”
”The little lights are not twinkling.”
”I know Art, and thanks for noticing.”
October 5th, 2021 at 5:12 AM ^
but just so we don't get ahead of ourselves
Lol. This is no doubt where the “Oracle” comes in to say that Cade is the problem and JJ is the solution!
(Seriously, that guy has like 30 posts in 3+ years and 95% of them are outlining that JJ is the truth and Cade will be replaced by mid year. Including in the game thread whenever Cade missed a throw.)
October 5th, 2021 at 5:42 AM ^
It's a concern. Work is being done. Improvements are likely.
October 5th, 2021 at 5:49 AM ^
What do they consider “garbage time”? Seems like a subjective variable.
October 5th, 2021 at 6:02 AM ^
Garbage time is anytime between when I wake up and when I go to bed
October 5th, 2021 at 7:31 AM ^
It is, objectively, any time spent reading this post.
October 5th, 2021 at 12:59 PM ^
Lol, garbage time is any game that is not within 38 points in the second quarter, 28 points in the third quarter, or 22 points in the fourth quarter. You could literally be up by 3 touchdowns in the 4th and it wouldn’t be considered garbage time. Technically the last 32 seconds of the Wisconsin game would not have been garbage time. Also, we scored a TD with 10 minutes left in the third against Western to go up 33-7. We played the rest of the third up 26 and this wouldn’t have been considered garbage time until the start of the 4th.
October 5th, 2021 at 6:01 AM ^
I'm already so far of myself that it's tomorrow
October 5th, 2021 at 6:04 AM ^
I don't think you need to tell this fanbase not to get overly optimistic.
October 5th, 2021 at 6:05 AM ^
Did we win?
October 5th, 2021 at 8:31 AM ^
Apparently not.
October 5th, 2021 at 10:03 AM ^
Not the way some wanted to apparently.
October 5th, 2021 at 6:16 AM ^
This song is so relevant to Michigan fans
Ok pop quiz
What I'm trying to ask you is
How am I like a summer storm?
You say, "What's that mean?"
And I squirm and shift my shoes
I got a soul and I'm gonna use it
I point to my foot
And say here's where my body ends
Is that a useful thing to say?
And when you replied, "no"
I can't think of another place to go
So I say it again but point to my hands
We're avoiding truth
Like two detectives who refuse to search and sleuth
Afraid of what we'll find behind locked doors
Losing had me running towards a hearse
Asking can you drop me off just down the street?
I was first in line at solipsistic sad guy seminar
But inside it just turned out to be another bar
I ordered a whiskey neat 50,000 times in the summer heat
I figure this is how i'll defeat my victories
We couldn't say good bye so we practice every weekend until we die
But even then it didn't seem quite right
I could play ham blues
Or any genre that could fix old me and you
So I was about to start a song that never ends
But inside the bridge I found a note I left to myself
Saying don't forget to love yourself
And don't forget to come back from hell
And don't forget to end the song
I went through hell, but now I'm back from hell
Hi, hello, how are you?
I went through hell, but now I'm back from hell
Hi, hello, how are you?
I went through hell, but now I'm back from hell
Hi, hello, how are you?
I went through hell, but now I'm back from hell
Hi, hello, how are you?
I went through hell, but now I'm back from hell
Hi, hello, how are you?
I went through hell, but now I'm back from hell
Hi, hello, how are you?
I went through hell, but now I'm back from hell
Hi, hello, how are you?
Hi, hello, how are you?
Hi, hello, how are you?
Hi, hello, how are you?
Hi, hello, how are you?
Hi, hello, how are you?
Hi, hello, how are you?
Hi, hello, how are you?
Hi, hello, how are you?
Hi, hello, how are you?
October 5th, 2021 at 6:34 AM ^
Totally. I don't see how we're going to beat the 85 Bears with stats like that.
October 5th, 2021 at 8:01 AM ^
Yup, this is bad news.
October 5th, 2021 at 8:26 AM ^
UM would mollywhop the '85 Bears. They're all, like, in their 60s.
October 5th, 2021 at 8:49 AM ^
Walter Payton RIP.
October 5th, 2021 at 9:51 AM ^
I'll let you tell The Fridge and Richard Dent. Plus Hurricane Ditka and all.
October 5th, 2021 at 6:38 AM ^
I hope the OP doesn't mind the change in title. I simply had trouble with the idea that one random statistic was the basis for an entire "glass half empty" view. It seems like the bar should be higher to call it that.
October 5th, 2021 at 6:44 AM ^
Maybe you should of just deleted the post then. You could probably cherry picks lots of stats to portray a glass half empty view. I've watched five games and this does not concern me. It's also likely a small sample size as we haven't been in 2nd or 3rd and long very much.
October 5th, 2021 at 7:30 AM ^
Should have… should of makes no sense
October 5th, 2021 at 8:04 AM ^
The contraction should’ve is the correct correction here.
October 5th, 2021 at 9:30 AM ^
Yes you're both correct. I type on a message board as I hear it coming out of my mouth.
October 5th, 2021 at 9:14 AM ^
New title is clickbait :/
October 5th, 2021 at 10:53 AM ^
NP
I agree, that is a better title.Thanks.
[Really no idea why the post got negged so much, but hardly surprised]
October 5th, 2021 at 6:51 AM ^
Good stat to highlight, passing success rate on those downs and distances is important to look it.
If you are hoping for a Big Ten Championship or ten plus wins then you should be concerned.
If you are good with seven, eight or nine wins then don't worry about it.
October 5th, 2021 at 8:18 AM ^
Wow, that's such an important, specific stat that it allows you to determine the under? Does Vegas know about this?
October 5th, 2021 at 9:54 AM ^
In my years watching football I have noticed a big factor in overall success is being able to recover when behind the chains. No team will consistently face short yardage situations where you have the run / pass option.
The ability to convert those situations into first downs on a more consistent basis than your opponent is a huge advantage.
Where is the flaw in that logic or you just want to be snarky?
October 5th, 2021 at 6:53 AM ^
I look forward to this thread being made 5 more times by the time Saturday's game rolls around.
October 5th, 2021 at 10:39 AM ^
As well as the 30 times afterward should the worst happen and Michigan stub their toe at Nebraska.
October 5th, 2021 at 7:05 AM ^
I would think that the sample size is going to enlarge along with Michigan finding the plays and personnel that could make that more of a successful percentage.
It certainly would be a stat in which the offensive staff is aware. It would be interesting to review the pass plays attempted thus far.
October 5th, 2021 at 9:05 AM ^
It did seem like Cade was continually throwing the ball well short of the sticks on third down Saturday. With us attempting to convert 5 different 4th downs, it may have been intentional.
October 6th, 2021 at 6:40 AM ^
That jogged my memory. Yes, the receivers ran routes on 3rd downs just under the coverage and there wasn't the intended YAC. The Wiscy D covered the under routes well. And with the previous games, the number of passes seemed few even on long down and distance for 3rd. The same was true, I believe of Rutgers in the second.
The style of offense changed last Saturday. The play balance and experience the receivers are getting should allow for a better completion rate.
Certainly, the 3rd down completion will need to greatly improve in the future.
October 5th, 2021 at 7:13 AM ^
Does anyone have fun anymore?
We are coming out of a historically bad year+ on a global scale (and 2-4 on a micro level) and you are concerned about this...Damn.
This team is playing great, just won a signature game* and has yet to lose or really be challenged ....enjoy it.
I mean, the team will almost certainly lose in the weeks to come maybe even this week to a dangerous Neb team and I image the meltdown here will be absolutely epic..but until then...
Jump Around...Jump Around...Jump up, Jump up and get down!
*No I don't mean in the historical context..but a win that addresses some of the negatives associated with the most recent program.
October 5th, 2021 at 8:03 AM ^
And it isn't even that we won Saturday, but how we won. We probably could have played a similar game to Iowa 2019 and won. It could have been an ugly 13-7 game and we could have ran our run run pass offense we ran vs Rutgers and still could have won.
We didn't do that. We didn't just hammer what we did the week prior that didn't work. We threw the ball early and pretty often. We ran end arounds. A flea flicker. Went for it on multiple 4th downs.
After that TD before the half, a previous iteration of this team may have folded. Instead we come out and force a 3 and out then go on a long drive (again going for it on 4th down).
We faced adversity, and responded probably better than in any game under Harbaugh. There is at this point no reason to expect us to go into Lincoln and lose. It'll be tough. Probably similar in score to this past game through 3 quarters. We take away the short passing game and provide a lot of pressure, we are putting the game in the hands of an under-pressure Martinez which he has shown in the 44 years he has been there, that he does not handle that well.
October 5th, 2021 at 10:03 AM ^
God forbid that there are people on this blog who look at stats and want to discuss there importance.
Maybe some people enjoy that part of the game.
What was posted wasn't inflammatory. If the post isn't something you want to discuss or think about then move on.
October 5th, 2021 at 7:27 AM ^
This doesn't mean a lot compared to what l see from the running game if I take out the runs by Corum and Haskins. Now there is something to be concerned about.
October 5th, 2021 at 8:50 AM ^
And if you take out all of Cade's completions it gets even worse!
October 5th, 2021 at 7:36 AM ^
I think we all know we don't have a great passing attack. We have a good running game and good just OK passing attack coupled with a pretty good, but not elite defense. But, I don't think anyone is under the assumption that we are a playoff team. We still aren't beating OSU, Bama, UGA, etc. When we play a complete team with a good defense and offense we are likely to drop that game. If we are forced to throw to win...meaning we aren't running effectively and the opposing offense is scoring enough to force us to try and throw and not just be content holding onto a low scoring lead, we are going to see what happens, and that will likely be a loss. I see that happening to OSU & probably PSU. I don't see anyone else on the schedule doing that to us. MSU may shut down the offense, but the defense should keep us in that game long enough to eventually pull out a squeaker.
October 5th, 2021 at 8:01 AM ^
I’d say the running game is elite. The passing game is above average. Wisconsin’s defense is very very good. One of the best they’re gonna play all year it may not be so with the fancy stars because they’re always cleaning up the rest of the teams mess but that defense is nasty especially on the ground.
October 5th, 2021 at 7:36 AM ^
I think this is nitpicking. Michigan Monday highlighted the same statistic. Michigan did not throw much this year until last week. They had much better success last week. I am more into successful plays than how many times we tried when we haven't thrown much. For example, the 4th & 2 rollout throw shows the improvement they made in the passing game. Remember that 3rd &8 running play in Rutgers game. You will see more improved plays as the year goes on. They don't throw much. So this statistic in isolation is not the best barometer.
October 5th, 2021 at 7:43 AM ^
I LIKE IT!
Its our duty as Michigan fans to find any negative detail and gaslight they hell out of it. Great job OP.
October 5th, 2021 at 8:01 AM ^
I can’t read the article (thanks for the paywall espn).
Anyway, my hypothesis is that:
1) Michigan tends to run more on these “passing downs”
2) Michigan hasn’t had as many attempts as other teams
3) When garbage time begins, is different for every team.
October 5th, 2021 at 8:04 AM ^
As a counterpoint, Bill C tweeted out yesterday that three teams haven't trailed this year...
Alabama
Georgia
and Michigan.
In fact, Michigan has only had 68 total offensive snaps when they've been tied.
October 5th, 2021 at 8:27 AM ^
Here is a statistic I just created: A team with a passing success rate on passing downs (second-and-7 or more, third-and-5 or more) of just 22% after 5 games will be 5-0 with an average margin of victory of 27 points.
October 5th, 2021 at 8:34 AM ^
On the other hand...... Corum scores a touchdown on 100% of the plays where he carries the ball into the endzone...
Take that one to the bank!
October 5th, 2021 at 8:41 AM ^
Oh no, things were going too well, let me dig and find SOMETHING to be concerned about
October 5th, 2021 at 8:55 AM ^
A better title: One statistic with based on a tiny sample. Should we care?
The statistic is based on a sample of 6 out16 passes. Next time, our QBs connect on three such passes, the average will jump to 50%!
October 5th, 2021 at 9:29 AM ^
I mean, do you remember the NIU and Rutger games? The passing offense was so bad that those games are going anchor the stats for a while. The key thing, imo, is how we’re trending, which seems to be in the right direction.
October 5th, 2021 at 9:38 AM ^
Obviously no team is incredibly successful when having to deal with multiple 3rd and long situations in games, but there is an uneasy sense of concern when Michigan gets that far behind the sticks for 2 reasons:
1. They just haven't gotten behind the sticks that far that often. They've done a good job staying on schedule to some degree and getting into 3rd and short situations. By nature of that, we just haven't seen them have to pull out 3rd and long plays often.
2. When they have gotten into those situations it has been a bit... iffy. Still need to show they can pass the ball when the defense is set up for it. Kind of like the running game. Rutgers knew they were going to run in the 2nd half, committed bodies to it, and shut it down. Can Michigan win downs through the air when teams rush 3 or 4 and drop everyone else? Still to be seen, but early returns show that is a weak spot because they miss Bell (though CJ is coming along nicely) and Cade still has iffy throws from time to time.