A Potential Statistic Of Concern?
I am cautiously optimistic about the football team's contiuned development, but just so we don't get ahead of ourselves.
Here is one sobering statistic:
Filtering out garbage time, Michigan's passing success rate on passing downs (second-and-7 or more, third-and-5 or more) is just 22%, 120th in FBS.
[link to the ESPN article]
It was posted at 7:45pm ET on Monday, so I assume it is up to date and includes the Wisconsin game.
Obviously that has got to improve, and hopefully it will. The key will to be to improve on this in the next two games (and the bye week), in order to be ready for the last five games.
EDIT - Hopefully, the OP does not mind the title change. One statistic does not really constitute an entire "glass half empty" view - LSA
October 5th, 2021 at 10:03 AM ^
I get what Connelly is getting at but I'd also like to know what's considered "garbage time" in some of these games. If we're basically going off half of the Washington game, most of the Rutgers, and half the UW game (because WMU and NIU were never competitive) and then we're taking a subset of those passing downs that are 3rd-and-long, it's I agree they aren't great. But we're also dealing with potentially a really small denominator.
Will UM have to show they can pass against better teams? Sure. That's not news. But this feels like a statistic that just exists without it necessarily being tied to detailed metrics.
October 5th, 2021 at 10:17 AM ^
Fuck if I understand what goes on in here. Someone posts an interesting statistic--something I didn't know, and is clearly food for thought--and gets negged to hell for it. I've been reading this board for a long time and apparently I still don't understand what makes an "acceptable" post.
It's sad. As the featured content from Brian, Seth, etc. has gotten better and better, the board has gone to shit. All these people policing the "snowflake" rules, or whatever it is that requires all posts to be incredibly original and somehow shoehorned into an existing thread.
October 5th, 2021 at 11:09 AM ^
Yeah, this is disappointing. From what I have read, the OP brought up an interesting data point about Michigan's ability to convert obvious 3rd down plays, and people just jump on him for that. I am all for people not thinking this data point is a concern, and having a discussion about it, but for people to accuse OP of trolling is ridiculous.
October 5th, 2021 at 11:10 AM ^
I agree the board can be a bit aggressive but this was also a post that apparently had a more inflammatory title to it and also linked to a statistic that didn't have a ton of context. I wouldn't have negged it but it's also tracks with a strain of this fanbase that demands we all live in fear of future losses that can be tiring.
October 5th, 2021 at 12:15 PM ^
Fair enough, didn't see the original post. II agree t is different to post something saying "Possible stat of concern? Michigan 112th in 3rd Down Passing" in contrast with "Cade sucks at passing, we can't move the ball on 3rd down".
October 5th, 2021 at 5:24 PM ^
Inflamatory? The original title was something like "A Glass Half Empty Perspective"
i.e. acknowledging that it was admittedly a negative view (as the coaches might) but not necessarily the only one, and that there are other ways of looking at things ("Glass Half Full"). A single dark cloud. Something to keep an eye on. It was a specific statistic, and statistics were something this board once seemed to be founded upon.
The intent was to temper expectations, but also indicate areas to look for improvement and be hopeful. Obviously it wasn't taken that way. Either that, or people here will attack anything that doesn't fit their own narrative.
October 5th, 2021 at 11:45 AM ^
So the accumulation, or decumulation, of 'cool kid points' affects your emotions?
October 5th, 2021 at 12:16 PM ^
I mean, I didn't think my response elicited that much emotion to begin with, but, no I don't think it does?
October 5th, 2021 at 11:00 AM ^
Here's the thing about cumulative statistics: they suck at showing improvement. The passing game was clearly more useful/successful last week than it had previously been but not good enough to make it look that way from a YTD view.
Frankly, given where Michigan ranks right now, it's nearly impossible for them to rise to be considered even mediocre by the end of the season. Rising to the top 60 in a cumulative 2021 ranking will require performance in the top 10 over the course of the next 5 games. It ain't happening. One would wrongly conclude that the passing attack in game 11 wasn't anything to worry about when in fact they should be expecting a top 10 passing team.
Lies, Damn lies, and statistics.
October 5th, 2021 at 11:48 AM ^
That stat is irrelevant if we go for it on 4th down every time. Who is with me?
October 5th, 2021 at 1:20 PM ^
this is 2021.... we're always in 4 down territory!
October 5th, 2021 at 4:04 PM ^
Yeah, yeah, I get it. It's not a perfect team. It may not even prove to be a great Michigan team.
But damn people, we're 5-0, including a significant road win AND our first win as an underdog.
So, sure, it's a concern. But what teams don't have concerns? Alabama, Georgia.....that's it.
I'm going to enjoy 5-0 and hope for improvement in the passing game. That's where I'm at.
October 7th, 2021 at 12:27 PM ^
You can take any championship team in history, analyze them, and find some thing of concern, so to speak.