Playoff Path Just Got a Lot Clearer

Submitted by BursleyHall82 on

With Stanford and Utah losing today, the Pac-12 would appear to be out of the CFP picture. That leaves the other four P5 conferences and Notre Dame. So just three things have to happen now for us to make the four-team field:

- OSU beats MSU next week.

- Stanford beats Notre Dame.

- We win out, and beat Iowa in the B1G title game.

- It's also possible that the Big 12 will cannibalize itself in the next two weeks and lose out on a spot.

Right now, the ACC (Clemson) and SEC (Alabama) appear to be in. The B1G champ has a great case for the third spot, so Michigan just needs to be the B1G champ.

Harbaugh took a bunch of guys who went 5-7 last year, and a quarterback that Iowa didn't want, and he's got us in the CFP conversation in late November. He's good.

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Quailman

November 15th, 2015 at 11:48 AM ^

Well, there are 3x the amont of D1 (top level) College Basketball teams as football, and basketball is a sport that fits a tournament style more easily.

Having all those teams and upsets in March Madness is fun and entertaining, but doesnt always result in the best or one of the best teams being named National Champ.

 

And you're right, no one argues about letting so many teams into March Madness, which is why I was asking about College Football. 

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Red is Blue

November 15th, 2015 at 9:36 AM ^

I don't get how letting more teams in mitigates the issues around which team is better. I think a larger field actually makes that worse. I'd argue the 4 best teams that miss the playoffs are closer to the worst team that does make the playoff the more teams you let in. Seems like generally, he difference between the 8th team and 4th team in a 4 team playoff is bigger than the difference between the 12th team and 8the team in a 8 team playoff.

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MichiganMAN47

November 15th, 2015 at 12:03 PM ^

What it does is reduce statistical sampling errors. These are errors that are caused when the sample population (4 or 8) doesn't represent the population as a whole (120 or whatever it is these days). When we have a playoff, the goal is to select the proper champion. By increasing the field to 8 teams we reduce sampling error, and are more likely to select the right champion. The 8 vs 9 team may be very similar, but that's besides the point of expanding the playoff. If it is practical, an 8 team playoff would add a lot of value.

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Red is Blue

November 15th, 2015 at 7:19 PM ^

I think you could argue that more teams in actually reduces the likelihood of a "proper champion" (whatever that means). In my mind, the "proper champion" is the best team. Results during the year are arguably a better indicator of that because, guess what, there are more regular season games and hence a larger sampling size.

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ghost

November 15th, 2015 at 7:54 AM ^

Because you have 5 conferences using different scheduling formats for 1.  After this year the Pac12 and Big10 will play 9 and a championship game, the Big 12 9, and the SEC and ACC 8 plus a championship game.  The Pac12 and Big10 formats are by far the hardest.

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victors2000

November 15th, 2015 at 11:46 AM ^

doesn't deserve a shot at the title? Last year was a great example, who's to say Baylor or TCU couldn't have made some noise in the playoffs? This year is a good example too; we're on course to have some team left out because of vote and not play on the field. What if OKSt. wins out? Does ND suddenly get left out if they win out? That the 5th place team gets left out is not FAIR. Besides, I don't see what your beef about a 8 team playoff would be. Perhaps Alabama wastes it's foe but there will be some great football with 'upsets' in the other games. And we'd be fairly certain everyone who had a decent, actual championship caliber team would be in; the battle between the 8th team and the 9th team may have cause for beef but it wouldn't be one between two undefeated teams with legitimate championship resume.

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kscurrie2

November 15th, 2015 at 2:09 AM ^

But we did win.  It seemed to work well for MSU until a bad call last week.  The games we won in those scenarios, we won.  We put things in motion to win the game.  The state thing was a one and a million fluke.  I get what your saying, but to me, they are totally different.  Plus remember, we had another bad snap today that cost us three points.  Maybe if that goes, we don't go into overtime at all.

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alum96

November 15th, 2015 at 2:10 AM ^

Not really

The committe is treating us as we really ddidnt lose to MSU as the highest ranked 2 loss team

Lots of teams ahead of us would have an argument for slot #4

  • 1 loss Oklahoma
  • undefeated OK State
  • committee loves 1 loss ND
  • 1 loss Florida
  • undefeated Iowa

We'd be somewhere in that group of 5 teams which would put us anywhere btw 4 and 9.  No guarantee of 4 itself.  Which is really moot this week anyhow.

The main diff is if we won out we'd be undisputed top 4.  All that matters is the last poll - the "loss" hurts in the final poll.  Doesnt hurt us much right now (maybe 2-4 spots lower than we'd otherwise be) 

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Danwillhor

November 15th, 2015 at 9:47 AM ^

is actually being rather hard on msu (fair, as they're not very good) for their record and easy on us. Everyone watched what happened. A true 1:1,000,000 fluke occurred. I think we get in if we win out but I have to be honest and admit that I don't think we will. I think the DL is not very suited for a team like Indiana and should bounce back against psu but that'll still be a tough win. If we win the osu game is huge no matter what but especially is osu is undefeated. I just don't see us beating them. No Debbie Downer, etc....I don't see it. We can't run the ball at all and osu is not Rutgers/Indiana. However, should we beat them I think we'd match up well vs Iowa or Wisconsin. Should we win that, we're in. I have no doubt. Lost to Utah week 1 and a fluke vs msu. We'd be in and I'd have to assume it's: Clemson, Bama, early one loss team, Michigan

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Frank Chuck

November 15th, 2015 at 2:18 AM ^

I don't understand why Notre Dame is ranked inside the top 4.

How many quality wins does UND have? 2? Temple and Navy?

1. Temple will no longer be ranked after its blowout loss (44-23) at USF.

2. After this Saturday, Navy is now 8-1 and I expect them to be ranked inside the top-20 in the new rankings.

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Chitown Kev

November 15th, 2015 at 2:30 AM ^

who get's the #4 spot above Notre Dame?

 

Iowa?....nope....Oklahoma?...nope, there's that Texas thing...MSU?...well, their Oregon win is starting to look better but not as good as a loss to the #1 on the road...same with Florida...Oklahoma State?...you might have an argument there...

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ghost

November 15th, 2015 at 7:57 AM ^

Oklahoma should.  They would have beaten likely 6 Power 5 teams with a winning record vs 3 for ND. As far as wins over likely 10 win teams Oklahoma will likey have 2 or 3 and ND 1.  ND played the top team in the ACC and the 3 worst teams in the conference plus Pitt who is likely not one of the 5 best teams in the ACC (there division is UNC plus a bunch of bad teams).

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rainingmaize

November 15th, 2015 at 1:43 PM ^

yes the Texas loss was bad, but Oklahoma didn't get beat but rather beat themselves, and sine that game no one other than maybe Alabama has played better then Oklahoma. Last year the committee overlooked Ohio State's bad loss and if Oklahoma wins out, that would be 6 wins over solid power 5 teams with three of those wins on the road. This would be a far better resume than Ohio State last year.

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BlowGoo

November 15th, 2015 at 5:56 AM ^

I especially don't get it since ND already played Clemson and lost. When the playoffs are announced, if ND goes to the playoffs while Clemson remains undefeated, there will be an uproar the likes of which hasn't been heard since the SEC whined about us potentially rematching Ohio in the NC game.

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Jack Hammer

November 15th, 2015 at 2:24 AM ^

I think everyone wants Harbaugh in the final 4. Whether or not this team is ready for that is a big question. If there's one thing I know, college football is crazy and strange things happen. Personally, I'm all for some unbridled optimism. I was on campus 20+ years ago when the Fab 5 caught fire and captured the imagination of the fans and did some amazing shit. Would be fun as fuck if this scrappy bunch of Harbaugh's Heroes did something like that. Sure we have injuries. But we also have some very talented guys coming into their own. I'm in. Let's do this shit.

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brad

November 15th, 2015 at 2:26 AM ^

I wonder if Durkin and Harbaugh would consider rotating Mone in at NT at this point. He's three months after his broken leg, and his redshirt is less valuable than a conference title, let alone a potential playoff berth.

I don't know the standard recovery and rehab time for his injury, but with Glasgow definitively out it seems like something they would do if it is physically possible.



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Danwillhor

November 15th, 2015 at 9:56 AM ^

and I think logically when most assume "done for season" means "done for season". Imagine pulling that RS and he injures that leg again. If truly healthy I wouldn't mind the play vs RS but I think we'd avoid the potential look of risking a kid's health to win. Like Rudock vs Minnesota, even if they can play and give you the best chance to win, you have to sit them for fear of getting hurt worse.

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brad

November 15th, 2015 at 10:51 AM ^

Yeah, that's what I mean, if he's truly healthy. When Glasgow was available, there was no reason to even consider Mone for just a handful of snaps in a handful of games. With Glasgow out and a lot still on the line, the logic of Mone's redshirt changes dramatically. But of course only if actually healthy and in decent condition to play.



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alum96

November 15th, 2015 at 2:36 AM ^

You concede one of the spots to B12 now.  Thats fine with the P12 carnage tonight.

Spots 1 thru 3 are ACC, SEC, B12.

The 4th spot is between ND, P12, B12.

So ND loss means its between P12 and B12.  And P12 champ will have at least 2 losses.  Same as UM if it wins out.  Hence the B12 is moot as long as ND loses.  We are not competing with them for a spot.

So be a BC or Stanford fan next 2 weeks.

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brad

November 15th, 2015 at 2:42 AM ^

If Ohio State wins out, you're right to say that the fourth spot comes down to a judgement between ND and the Big 12.

But if the Michigan friendly scenario plays out, the B1G's currently guaranteed slot will disappear, and we'll have a three team race for two spots between M, ND and the Big 12 champ. That's why the OP is saying we would get in via a ND loss to Stanford. Big 12 champ is already in because the big ten would be in chaos



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alum96

November 15th, 2015 at 2:33 AM ^

Here is a much simpler version of OP.

-------------------------

If Stanford beats ND your playoff is

  1. Clemson
  2. Bama
  3. Big 12 champ
  4. Big 10 or P12 champ

Now a 2 loss UM (if it wins out) has a legit argument vs winner of P12 who will have 2 losses at best.

ND must fall!

Ironically P12 is now UMs biggest fan because Iowa or oSU or MSu winning out means they are frozen out.  Only a 2 loss UM gives them an argument.

 

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Inuyesta

November 15th, 2015 at 3:17 AM ^

Don't discount the chance of the Big 12 cannibslizing itself. Oklahoma State is the only unbeaten left in that conference, and by my estimation they are the third best of the bunch. They could easily fall to one or both of Baylor and Oklahoma. I think Baylor was eliminated tonight even if they do come back to win the conference...no one will believe they could hang with Alabama or Clemson after falling to Oklahoma at home. And Oklahoma, although they looked really good tonight, are on dicey ground...that loss to Texas was **bad** and is only getting worse. In an ideal world, you could see something like: TCU > Oklahoma OSU > Baylor Oklahoma > OSU Baylor > TCU For 11-1 OSU who lost the last game of the year 10-2 Oklahoma 10-2 Baylor 10-2 TCU I can imagine the Big 12 getting left out in that scenario; could give us another way in if ND tops Stanford

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UMForLife

November 15th, 2015 at 8:45 AM ^

ND must fall may not be true. Looking at M and ND at the end of the year, assuming both win out:

M would have beaten - OSU (#3), IOWA (#5), NU (top 20), BYU (9 win team), PSU (atleast 7 wins). Losses - MSU (fluky win), UTAH (first week by a TD).

ND - Texas (not doing too well), Temple (lost to USF and will not be ranked), PITT (may be 9 wins?), Stanford (3 or 4 losses, even if they lose to ND). - Loss to the #1 team on the road with a great comeback in 4th quarter.

By the end of the year, M's SOS schedule should look way better. M would have one more loss, but ND would have played one less game. So, I am not sure if that would be a guaranteed spot for ND. Of course, if they lose, I am all for it. Anytime ND loses, it is fun.

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SMart WolveFan

November 15th, 2015 at 2:41 AM ^

....was watching Rosen and Booins celebrating a go ahead TD against Washington St. with over a minute remaining like they had just won a superbowl............and then they didn't win jack shit.

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