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- Dayne Crist, a 5* who went to Notre Dame, where he couldn't beat out Jimmy Clausen or Tommy Rees, and transferred to Kansas where he couldn't beat out someone named Michael Cummings.
- Sean Renfree, a 3*/4* tweener who became a 3 year starter at Duke and went in the 7th round of the draft
- B.R. Holbrook, a 2* who went to New Mexico and played very poorly with a career 9:16 TD:INT ratio
- Jerome Tiller, a 3* who went to Iowa State, was a backup for a couple years then switched to WR
- Ted Stachitas, a 3* who went to Wake Forest and was a career backup
- Wayne Warren, a 3* who went to Rutgers and converted to Safety
- John Brantley (2007) (0.9855)
- Willy Korn (2007) (0.9655)
- Mike Glennon (2008) (0.9766)
- Blaine Gabbert (2008) (0.9798)
- Logan Thomas (2009) (0.9719)
- Tajh Boyd (2009) (0.9827)
|1 week 4 days ago||That's a pretty selective way||
That's a pretty selective way of looking at things.
First of all, I don't think Stanford offered RG3...he's not listed on their offer page on 247 and RG3's Rivals page lists him as having interest from Stanford but not an offer.
Second, regardless of whether they offered RG3, it's way too simplistic to say "well he offered these two guys who both turned out to be really good," because those weren't the *only* two guys Harbaugh offered. According to 247, Stanford's 2008 non-Luck QB offerees were:
2008 QBs Stanford did not offer include Blaine Gabbert, E.J. Manuel, Landry Jones, Mike Glennon, Darron Thomas, Tyler Wilson, Nick Florence, Jacory Harris, and Jordan Jefferson. (And also possibly/probably Robert Griffin III).
You can do the same thing with the 2009, 2010, and 2011 classes. For every Matt Barkley, Brock Osweiler, Connor Shaw, or Johnny Manziel that Stanford offered, there are plenty of Justin Worleys and Dallas Lloyds and Allen Bridgfords who never turned into anything, and even more Aaron Murrays and Marcus Mariotas who never got that look.
|1 week 6 days ago||"A healthy number of those||
"A healthy number of those two and three-star guys are likely to be good players given what he did with the Cardinal."
Definitely. Interesting to note: According to this study of the 2010 recruiting class by SBNation, the chances of any 3* being drafted were 5.6%, and the odds of any 2* being drafted 2.9%. Combined, 3*s and 2*s together had about a 4% chance of being drafted.
For my diary, I found that Harbaugh's recruits rated 0.85x or lower had a 12.5% chance of being drafted, triple that national rate. But that understates matters because limiting the sample to 0.85x cuts out the best-regarded 3*s Harbaugh recruited. Running the numbers again for all 3*s, 10 of Harbaugh's 64 3* or worse recruits were drafted, a 15.6% rate.
So, Harbaugh's 3* or worse recruits were nearly four times as likely to be drafted as the national average for that level of recruit. Not too shabby.
However, 6 of Harbaugh's 19 4*s were drafted, a 31.6% rate. That's more than twice as well as his 2*s and 3*s did. So, I'll still be rooting for Harbaugh to reel in big recruits.
(The national rate for 4*s from the link above was 19.5%, so Harbaugh's success with 4*s was about 62% better than average. Harbaugh is a good coach.)
|1 week 6 days ago||Good post. I'll comment on||
Good post. I'll comment on the Luck thing at the end since I said of him in a comment on my diary from the other day that "a player that good at QB can paper over a lot of inconsistencies elsewhere."
You say: " My conclusion about Luck, then, is that it's not fair to assert that Coach Harbaugh papered over the flaws in his two and three star team with an all-everything player at QB who was obviously going to be an All-American. Unlike Terrelle Pryor, for example, Luck simply wasn't considered that when he was in high school, and at least some insight was required in picking him as your potential future quarterback."
Though I would quibble about how highly regarded Luck was coming out of high school (0.9768 is a very high Composite score, and represents a top-50 national prospect...according to Wolverine Devotee's thread from the other day, a guy rated 0.9768 would be the 14th-best prospect Michigan has landed since 2002) I think it's obviously right that Harbaugh, when recruiting the 2008 class, didn't sit there and think anything like, "well, wgaf about recruiting these other positions, I've got the next Peyton Manning coming in at QB so who I get everywhere else doesn't matter so much." That would be obvious nonsense. I think he went out and tried to get the best guys he could, and given the academic requirements at Stanford and the fact that they generally were a crappy football program at that point, the best guys he could get weren't really rated that highly. Fair enough.
However, I do think it's fair to say that Harbaugh would not have been as successful as he was at Stanford if Luck hadn't turned out to be as good as he was/is. Regardless of if Harbaugh was planning for Luck to be that good, Luck was that good and his high level of skill definitely affected the success Stanford was able to have under Harbaugh.
QBs with similar ratings coming out of high school around then include
If Andrew Luck had turned out to be Mike Glennon instead of what he was (i.e. a quality college QB with enough pro upside to be a middle round pick rather than a No. 1 overall pick hailed as the best QB prospect in a decade), does Stanford go 12-1 that year? Maybe, but even with Andrew Luck they still pulled out some close games that season; the downgrade from Luck to Glennon might have been enough to flip the result.
My point here isn't to denigrate Harbaugh or discount his accomplishments at all. I am saying, though, that the 12-1 season at Stanford is not a strong data point in favor of "it doesn't matter how well-regarded Harbaugh's recruits are, he can win with anyone," because even though that team was loaded with lowly recruits, it had a generational talent at the most important position (and Luck was, even in high school before he was Andrew Luck, a significant outlier to the rest of Stanford's overall recruiting caliber). That's a luxury Harbaugh does not and probably will not have here at Michigan.
|2 weeks 1 day ago||I think it's saying too much||
I think it's saying too much to say that Harbaugh will "win with anyone." I think it's safe to say that a big reason for the outsize success Harbaugh had at Stanford (going 12-1 his final year) had a fair bit to do with having a generational talent in Andrew Luck as his quarterback...a player that good at QB can paper over a lot of inconsistencies elsewhere. It would be interesting to see how Stanford would have done if Harbaugh hadn't left for the 49ers and had to coach with Hogan as his QB. (My take is that he would have done well, but probably not reached the heights he achieved with Luck...probably more like 9 wins a year, which is still very good at Stanford).
There are certain programs that are able to compete at a high level despite not recruiting among the elite (according to the rankings)...off the top of my head, I would name Oregon, Baylor, Michigan State, Wisconsin, and perhaps TCU in that group. But even though schools like that may win conference titles, I don't see any of them (except perhaps Oregon) as genuine national championship threats...I don't think it's a coincidence that Oregon has struggled the in its recent national championship games against recruiting powers Auburn and Ohio State, and I don't think it's a coincidence that neither Wisconsin nor Michigan State have been able to put together 12 complete games to reach the national championship. We'll see what happens with Baylor and TCU moving forward, but my expectation is that those schools would similarly flounder at the highest level of competition.
I've long thought that college football is structurally rather similar to European soccer due to the abundance of different leagues and the seeming permanence of teams at the top/lack of parity among the leagues. Let's run with that analogy and say the Big Ten is the Spanish league La Liga. The question is do we expect Michigan football to be Real Madrid to Ohio State's FC Barcelona -- a worthy rival both in the domestic league and for European supremacy -- or do we expect Michigan football to be more like Atletico Madrid or Valencia, popular sides that might pop up and win a domestic trophy here and there, but which rarely amount to anything outside Spain and are not usually mentioned in the same breath with the big boys? If your expectation is only that we be an 8-to-10 win sort of team that competes for Big Ten titles but doesn't usually make a big dent nationally, then there's nothing to worry about, we've got that covered with Harbaugh on board. But that's just the floor for a coach like him. I don't see any reason, with a brand and resources such as we have and a coach such as we have, why we shouldn't play the role of Real Madrid, or even supplant Ohio State as Barcelona. That's tough to do with under-the-radar recruits, though, and so its a fair thing to worry about.
|2 weeks 1 day ago||Terrance Davis is almost||
Terrance Davis is almost certainly one; the guys at Scout have been dropping hints about him being a silent for a while now. I think the other is likely to be Kareem since he announces next week, but certainly can't ignore the fact that Bush Jr. just visited and both Wiltfong and Lorenz put in CBs for him immediately after this article posted.
|2 weeks 1 day ago||Yeah, it's definitely very||
Yeah, it's definitely very heartening that a lot of guys Michigan got in on earlier in the cycle as "under-the-radar" types have blown up...thinking about guys like Xavier Kelly (a 3-star Kansas State commit when we offered, now #107 overall in the Composite with 31 offers), Jonathan Jones (still a 3* to most services, but has dominated camp settings and earned an invite to The Opening, seems due for a bump), Rahssan Thornton (3*, turned into a fierce recruiting war between LSU, Michigan, and Texas before he committed to LSU very recently), Kingston Davis (picked up LSU, UF, and Nebraska offers post-commitment), or even Brandon Peters, who was a 3*/4* tweener when we offered and has since made the Elite 11 finals and risen to #140 overall in 247sports' rankings.
Similarly, some of these new guys, like Dytarious Johnson and Sam McKeon especially, seem like they're very much underranked and due for sizeable bumps.
So, that's why I'm in the "trust the coaches" camp. But I certainly understand the other perspective.
|9 weeks 2 days ago||The goal of black-targeted||
The goal of black-targeted media like this isn't to create a divide based on race, it's to give a platform for black sports journalists whose voices and perspectives wouldn't otherwise get heard. Of course, the problem with Whitlock, as its revealed in the piece, is he's not actually interested in that; he's only interested in advancing his own worldview and building a bigger brand for himself.
|9 weeks 3 days ago||They're absolutely in||
They're absolutely in Winterfell. There were multiple establishing shots confirming this.
|9 weeks 3 days ago||Brown. Put Brown on our team||
Brown. Put Brown on our team and we are instant national title contenders. No football recruit has that kind of immediate impact...even an incredible QB takes time to develop.
And that's assuming you can even identify elite football recruits with the kind of accuracy you can identify elite basketball recruits with, which I don't think matches reality.
Recruiting Profiles of Past 10 #1 Overall NFL Picks (per Rivals)
Clowney - 5*, #1 SDE, #1 overall
Fisher - 2*, unranked
Luck - 4*, #4 P-QB, #68 overall
Newton - 5*, #1 DT-QB, #28 overall
Bradford - 3*, #12 P-QB, unranked
Stafford - 5*, #1 P-QB, #6 overall
Long - 4*, #12 OT, unranked
Russell - 4*, #6 P-QB, #79 overall
Williams - 4*, #11 SDE, unranked
Smith - 2*, unranked
Recruiting Profiles of Past 10 (U.S.-based) #1 Overall NBA Picks (per Rivals)
Wiggins - 5*, #1 SF, #1 overall
Bennett - 5*, #1 PF, #7 overall
Davis - 5*, #1 PF, #2 overall
Irving - 5*, #2 PG, #4 overall
Wall - 5*, #1 PG, #1 overall
Griffin - 5*, #6 PF, #23 overall
Rose - 5*, #1 PG, #3 overall
Oden - 5*, #1 C, #1 overall
Howard - 5*, #1 C, #1 overall
James - 5*, #1 SG, #1 overall
Gary looks every bit the part (seriously, the highlights of him from the NFTC over the weekend are incredible, watch them if you haven't) but this football stuff is not a science the way basketball is.
|10 weeks 16 hours ago||Posted a comparison of how||
Posted a comparison of how Hoke's assistants have done vs. how Muschamp's assistants have done looking for new jobs this offseason on 247
It's, uh, just a little bit one sided
|12 weeks 1 day ago||FTR Sam Webb says we will||
FTR Sam Webb says we will keep recruiting Robert Washington
|12 weeks 3 days ago||A Sauce-Off, perhaps?||
A Sauce-Off, perhaps?
|13 weeks 3 days ago||Other headlines I saw||
Other headlines I saw today:
CNN - Presidents of the United States Get to Live in Pretty Sweet House
ESPN - Mike Trout: Pretty Good at Baseball
Scientific American - Things Get Wet When You Drop Them in Water
|20 weeks 1 day ago||Wait wait woah woah woah woah||
Wait wait woah woah woah woah woah. Eminem hasn't made good music since 2002? Gonna have to strenuously disagree with that.
Otherwise, this is spot on.
|21 weeks 1 day ago||Fun fact: Washington is||
Fun fact: Washington is Michigan's first commit from Alabama since Max Martin in the 2004 class.
|23 weeks 1 day ago||That's true generally but||
That's true generally but FTR, Alabama made Gentry a major target early in the process after they lost Ricky Town's commitment.
|23 weeks 5 days ago||2015 B1G QB commits, non||
2015 B1G QB commits, non Early Enrollees
Ohio State: Torrance Gibson (DUAL, FL, 4*, 74th overall); Joe Burrow (DUAL, OH, 3*, 379th)
Penn State: none
Wisconsin: Austin Kafentzis (DUAL, UT, 3*, 529th); Alex Hornibrook (PRO, PA, 3*, NR);
Michigan State: Brian Lewerke (PRO, AZ, 3*, 413th)
Northwestern: Lloyd Yates (DUAL, IL, 3*, NR)
Indiana: Austin King (PRO, GA, 3*, 790th); Andre Brown (DUAL, GA, 3*, NR)
Maryland: Gage Shaffer (PRO, WV, 3*, NR)
Illinois: Jimmy Fitzgerald (PRO, IL, 3*, 911th)
Iowa: Ryan Boyle (DUAL, IA, 3*, 930th)
Minnesota: Demry Croft (DUAL, IL, 3*, 798th)
Rutgers: Michael Dare (PRO, NJ, 3*, 684th)
Of those, I can only remember the following prior Michigan connections:
-Torrance Gibson named us to an early top-15 (we were 13th or 14th iirc)
-Brian Lewerke was a name that was being floated around as a QB candidate shortly before Malzone was offered, I think he had professed some nominal level of interest
-Ditto Jimmy Fitzgerald, although I think he was just sort of a name rather than a guy who was actually contacted/pursued by the old staff
-Austin Kafentzis is a name that rings a bell for me, but I don't believe we ever pursued him.
|25 weeks 2 days ago||I was just saying to my gf a||
I was just saying to my gf a couple days ago that things must have been pretty unbearable for him when that movie came out
|25 weeks 6 days ago||KLS said specifically in one||
KLS said specifically in one of his paysite interviews that Mora leaving was one of the only things that could make him really rethink his UCLA pledge. Colin Samuel and Octavius Spencer are two commits that Steve Lorenz has brought up as being potential Harbaugh targets; obviously Mora jetting would help with them too. Also, flipping Samuel could conceivably help with Iman Marshall, they're teammates at Long Beach Poly. Looking through their class, I don't think we've ever been linked with anyone else besides Rosen, and obviously that ship has sailed.
|26 weeks 2 days ago||Can't believe you're not||
Can't believe you're not covering the epic AFC Bournemouth/Ipswich Town race for the English League Championship title
|26 weeks 3 days ago||I mean, I want a good||
I mean, I want a good quarterback, but Andrew Luck was a once-in-twenty-years type of prospect. That's a ludicrously high bar you've set if you're being serious.
Also, you don't need an elite quarterback to win big in college football. Obviously it's better to have one, but it's not necessary. Here's a list of QBs who have led their teams to top-4 finishes since 2010 without being quality pro prospects:
When you account for the fact that Thomas and McCarron did it multiple times, that's more than half the quarterbacks of top-4 teams in that span who weren't quality pro prospects.
|28 weeks 6 days ago||This is one of those things||
This is one of those things where 538's model is fos, like when they were giving Brazil something like a 70% chance to win the World Cup with multiple rounds still to play. Assuming the 76ers were actually trying, they would beat Kentucky by 15-20 on average. People above are right that its basketball so Kentucky would probably take a few in there in a 82-game set, but the idea that Kentucky would win 44% of the games at home is looooooooooolbsurd.
|30 weeks 3 days ago||Harbaugh has won with (1) the||
Harbaugh has won with
(1) the best college QB prospect of his generation, who would go on to be drafted #1 overall
(2) another QB drafted #1 overall
(3) a QB drafted at the beginning of the second round
Let's not pretend that Harbaugh has worked with guys hired off XFL practice squads.
And I addressed the Brady argument in my post: show me a coach working with a Brady-level talent who has done as well as Belichick for as long as Belichick has. Be sure to start your answer with Aaron Rodgers' Mike McCarthy and Drew Brees' Sean Payton, both of whom consistently get knocked out of the playoffs by the divisional round, and the four different head coaches Peyton Manning has had in his career, three of whom only lasted for 3-4 seasons.
|30 weeks 3 days ago||You could make that argument,||
You could make that argument, but it wouldn't be a good one, because it ignores the fact that 15 years of consistent success are much harder than 3 years of consistent success and one year (2014) of distinct mediocrity.
Again, I like Harbaugh a lot, but 3 good years in San Francisco and one elite year at Stanford do not place you on par with Belichick.
|30 weeks 3 days ago||Um, Mike McCarthy has never||
Um, Mike McCarthy has never won three straight NFC championships as a head coach. In fact, in his 8 seasons in Green Bay, McCarthy hasn't even been to three NFC Championship Games. He has been to two; he won in 2010 when they won the Super Bowl and lost in 2007 to the Giants.
|30 weeks 3 days ago||What? No. Belichick has won||
Belichick has won the AFC East 11 times in 14 years at New England, including the past 5 AFC East titles, not including the AFC East title the Patriots are cruising to this year. For 11 straight years, the Patriots have won at least 10 games, and they've only been as "bad" as 10-6 twice in that span. With the Patriots, Belichick has been to the Divisional round 10 times, the AFC Championship Game 8 times, and the Super Bowl 5 times. Belichick coached the only team in NFL history to complete a 16-0 regular season, and, yes, won the Super Bowl 3 times in 4 years. It is an incredible, nigh-unprecedented run of consistency that no other active coach even comes close to matching, and it's made all the more impressive by the fact that Belichick has achieved it even in the face of incredible turnover both in his roster (how many Pro Bowl players have the Patriots kicked to the curb over the past 15 years?) and among his assistant coaches (how many Belichick coordinators have gone on to become head coaches with other NFL teams or huge college programs? The number is at least 5 or 6, not counting any assistants that may have taken other jobs before becoming head coaches). The only constant for the Patriots under Belichick has been Brady...and before you discount Belicihick's success for having a Hall of Fame QB to work with, please find for me another coach blessed with a Brady-esque talent at QB and show me their equivalent 15 year period of dominance.
There are any number of great coaches in the NFL right now, and Harbaugh is undoubtedly one of them. But there is no argument as to who is the best, and the best has no peers in the firmament, at least as far as I'm concerned. Track record matters in these discussions; otherwise it devolves to "welp, Coach X had a great gameplan for Team Y last week, guess he's one of the best!" The idea that I have to "cherry pick a four year stretch from 10 years ago" in order to make the argument that Belichick is head and shoulders ahead of everyone else is ludicrous.
Tier 1: Belichick
Tier 2: have at it.
|30 weeks 3 days ago||"arguably the best football||
"arguably the best football coach in the world"
uh, I mean, I really like Harbaugh and hope he comes to Michigan, but I'm trying hard to think of any good argument even putting Harbaugh on the same tier with Belichick and not coming up with one.
|31 weeks 3 days ago||Anyone else gonna actually be||
Anyone else gonna actually be at the game? Love that the team has been coming to NYC so frequently lately.
|34 weeks 1 day ago||Yeah, I mean obviously the||
Yeah, I mean obviously the other side of it is that the owners in the NFL are going to fight the hardest against guaranteed contracts because they have to have the biggest rosters, and any of the players can lose their career in a second. But yeah, the NFLPA is shockingly weak, hard to imagine why that would be.
|34 weeks 4 days ago||Posts saying nice things||
Posts saying nice things about Denard will always get upvotes from me