Panic Mitigation - M is Close to W's
In thinking how far away Michigan is from having one or even two or three more wins, I found out they are actually pretty close. A play made here and there (which will most likely get made later this year or next year with more experience for those involved - every play cited involved a player with Sophomore eligibility or younger) would have a big impact on our record. Which play, or non-play, has had the biggest impact on the season:
Defense:
JT Floyd (SO) @ PSU: Potential interception hits him in the arms and falls to the ground on the first pass McFarve throws. Drive Result: PSU scores TD.
Kovacs (SO) vs. Iowa: Dropped Interception near the goal line. Drive Result: IA scores TD.
Avery (FR) vs. Iowa: Missed Tackle on Adam Robinson on 3rd and Long in 4Q. Drive Result: IA FG to go up two scores.
Special Teams:
Kick Offs OOB (Brookhasfoaishfffuuu - FR) vs. Iowa: the second one was a serious momentum killer, but both were bad.
Missed or Blocked FG - pick one. Although MSU and IA are the biggest misses I think and could have impacted the outcome, especially Tyler MF Sash returning that one so far upfield.
Gallon (FR) @ PSU: Boots the kick off return out of bounds at the two. Impact: M goes three and out taking no time off the clock with incomplete passes and PSU easily scores a TD before the half.
Offense:
Running Vincent Smith on 3rd and 2 or less: pick one - This is on the coaches, who are not Freshman or Sophomores and should know better.
Denard (SO) vs MSU: INT in the endzone
Smith (SO) vs IA: Fumble lost deep in IA territory in 2nd Half
Discuss - would any single play give us one more W? Two Plays? Wouldn't Matter?
November 3rd, 2010 at 10:17 AM ^
This is what I've done as a Lions fan my entire life and I really don't want to start playing it with Michigan football. At some point reality has to set in. We lost, and there were probably plays that if they went the other way, we would have lost by more. Sure, if a single play here or there went the other way, entire games could be different, I wouldn't argue that. But to say we're a few plays away from having 7-8 wins, I think is a stretch.
November 3rd, 2010 at 10:52 AM ^
You play each team, one time per season, which is why football is so popular.
You get what happens during the game, that's all.
November 3rd, 2010 at 12:33 PM ^
I'm dumbfounded by these attempts to make it look like we've been beating ourselves.
Listen, we got our asses handed to us in our three losses. Also, this mental exercise can be played from the other side as well. If MSU, Iowa, and PSU didn't make certain mistakes and played better on certain plays, each could have beaten us by 28.
November 3rd, 2010 at 10:22 AM ^
In fact, M is essentially one reflection across a horizontal plane away from W.
This team hasn't been getting blown out, but let's not pretend that these games went down to the wire. There are always bounces that don't go your way in football. The point is that you need to play well enough that you can still win when that happens. We haven't, which is why we've lost by 17, 10, and 10 points in the last three games.
November 3rd, 2010 at 10:30 AM ^
In fact, M is essentially one reflection across a horizontal plane away from W.
Beat me to it!
November 3rd, 2010 at 10:49 AM ^
So, in this reflective universe, are Freshman Seniors? I want to go there...
I guess my argument is, that if nothing changes on the team except for they current players get more experience, the plays listed above could easily have been made or had a different outcome possibly leading to wins.
November 3rd, 2010 at 12:00 PM ^
where our positive emotions are sucked away...
But we are close to some wins - you're point is well taken.
November 3rd, 2010 at 10:24 AM ^
on 4th and 1. That led to a PSU TD, the ensuing kickoff was the gallon kick out of bounds. We had him stopped, but he snuck out of the tackle on a second effort. If we get the ball there, its 14-10 and we are driving. The halftime score could have been 17-14 M, not 28-10 PSU.
Also - we need to win the coin tosses and defer. We are 0-3 when receiving the ball in the first half, and 5-0 when getting it to start the second half.
November 3rd, 2010 at 10:28 AM ^
That stat intrigues me. Clearly Rodriguez needs to take more time with the captains calling the coin toss to get that average up. If he can't do it, we need to bring in a head coach who can.
November 3rd, 2010 at 10:30 AM ^
I hear hes extremely good at winning coin tosses and deferring.
November 3rd, 2010 at 10:32 AM ^
Indoors.
November 3rd, 2010 at 10:52 AM ^
You do not read this blog in class...priceless
November 3rd, 2010 at 10:44 AM ^
Forgot that was so early in the game and such a huge swing. Good call. The sad thing on that play is I think Demens gets him to the ground if MRob doesn't come in and blast the pair of them, knocking Demens to the side.
November 3rd, 2010 at 11:05 AM ^
Too true. Both MRob and CGordon played that poorly trying to tackle too high and too far toward Demens who was locked up with him. If either of them go for the midsection and 6 inches to the right and Royster goes down. That was a total facepalm moment, I nearly started to cry.. but my son was sitting right there.
November 3rd, 2010 at 10:25 AM ^
It's Broekhuizen. It's Dutch, and therefore, easy.
November 3rd, 2010 at 10:30 AM ^
November 3rd, 2010 at 10:32 AM ^
Not just one. I mean, even if we get 10 points back in PSU, JoePa just punches it in at the end of the game. We didn't lose by one play.
For this to really work, you'd have to analyze the mistakes the other teams made too. If Iowa hadn't done X, or PSU hadn't down Y, would we have lost by 35? And then, if ND doesn't throw this interception, or if the pass is shorter at the end of the game, do we lose that game to offset some win we picked up elsewhere? I mean, U-Mass, Indiana could have just as easily been loses in that world. Heck, if U-Conn doesn't fumble inside the 10...
November 3rd, 2010 at 10:35 AM ^
And don't forget we needed some flukey plays right before half to get back in the UMass (!) game. Very well could have lost ND and Indiana too. Get real people. This is a horrible , horrible defense which our offense carries like a eleven billion pound gorilla on its back. We could be 6-2 or 7-1 but we could also be 2-6. We are a bad, bad team. I thought that much was settled.
November 3rd, 2010 at 10:39 AM ^
November 3rd, 2010 at 10:53 AM ^
So if we change it to Wichigan we will go undefeated?
*email sent to DB accordingly
November 3rd, 2010 at 10:51 AM ^
But if we're slicing the salami this thin, we've probably been closer to dropping a few more games than we are to winning a few more. Iowa/PSU both had large leads. We tightened it up, but in every loss, we were down multiple scores at some point, and the final score in all three losses was 2+ scores. Two of our wins, however, came on our final possession.
Let's just focus on Illinois.
November 3rd, 2010 at 11:04 AM ^
I can take it.
I'm trying to look for positives in these plays.
Then going forward, like against Illinois, hopefully the young players have learned from these plays and will make the play in the future.
November 3rd, 2010 at 10:59 AM ^
Close or not, the wins didn't happen. Horseshoes and hand grenades, my friend.
November 3rd, 2010 at 11:03 AM ^
I like this logic. While were at it, Planck's constant is pretty much zero, so I'm going with that. My life just got easier.
November 3rd, 2010 at 11:09 AM ^
What about losses? ND, Indiana and UMASS come to mind.
November 3rd, 2010 at 11:11 AM ^
My lord we have become Michigan State. The MSU boards were littered with discussions of close losses during the Bobby Williams and John L Smith eras.
November 3rd, 2010 at 11:55 AM ^
Even the best teams don't win every play. So if you let your opponent hang around, you're inviting a loss, even if you're a "better" team in some abstract, ultimately meaningless sense. All they have to do is have one play go their way -- an interception, a big run, a kick return. I'm sure someone has done a statistical analysis of this somewhere, but I'd be surprised if there are a lot of undefeated teams with tiny average margins of victory. The only way to minimize the x-factor -- the risk of a "fluke" loss -- is to build a commanding lead and keep it. A team that wants to be dominant can only afford a few close games a season.
November 3rd, 2010 at 12:23 PM ^
If Roundtree doesn't get caught from behind last year are we even having this discussion? What if's don't equal wins, and winning is the only cure at this point. Don't be that guy.
November 3rd, 2010 at 12:36 PM ^
If I wasnt a moron I wouldnt subject myself to this board everyday!!!
Cant live on what if. No coach or university has ever held its head high on...IF.
November 3rd, 2010 at 12:59 PM ^
The fact is: Michigan was closer to losing vs. Notre Dame, UMass, and Indiana, than it was to wining vs. Michigan State, Iowa, and Penn State.
The first three were one-score games. In two of them, Michigan needed late heroics to win. In the third (UMass), the Minutemen were an onsides kick recovery away from having the ball at the end, needing only a field goal vs. Michigan’s defense.
The last three were losses by more than 8 points, meaning Michigan would have needed to score at least twice more, while preventing the opponent from scoring again. (Obviously, the fact that they were up by two scores changed the way these opponents played at the end.)
In short: Michigan is a lot closer to having more losses, than it is to having more wins. None of us is happy about this, but let’s not sugar-coat it. Michigan is a lucky, not unlucky, to be 5-3.
November 3rd, 2010 at 1:06 PM ^
Discuss - would any single play give us one more W? Two Plays? Wouldn't Matter?
I did that for 13 years when Cooper was at Ohio State. For me, the answer always ended up being "Replacing John Cooper."
November 3rd, 2010 at 1:11 PM ^
I think we can all agree that some of our wins could have been losses and some of our losses could have been wins. My head is spinning at this discussion.
The thing to take away for the future is that we CAN win every game.
November 3rd, 2010 at 1:15 PM ^
...that fine line between winning and losing. "If it weren't for that one play, etc..."
The team spends three hours each Saturday in the Fall playing a game and at the end of every one you're either a Bozo winner or a Loser with a capital "L."
"Almost winners" as a description doesn't work. The fear of the Loser moniker is what makes wins all the more sweet.
November 3rd, 2010 at 1:47 PM ^
The same posting occurred last year when it was said we almost beat Illinois and Purdue. That was countered by the fact that we almost lost to ND and Indiana. These discussions shouldn't be occurring. There is something horribly wrong and unless something changes in the next two weeks, no one can reasonably call this progress.
To those who say the offense has looked very impressive, I would say a once in a generation athlete has looked impressive. I can't believe we would be nearly as explosive without the audacious talent of DR. Defenses can be turned around quickly. The current DC at Illinois has done it with two different teams in the last five years. I can't believe his talents are unique.
It is incumbent upon RR to find the right people even it means jettisoning his friends. He owes more to the university (and the players) than he does to his friends. If he is unwilling or unable to do this, the path is obvious. I am certain that Brandon has a short list of coaches he can approach. I suspect some back channel communications have already occurred.