OSU Sunday
So let's talk about OSU. I end up watching a number of their games (yes, I know, forgive me) as I have a number of Bucknut relatives. We've actually come to a peaceful way to manage this divide: we each cheer the other's team on (I mean, not really, but you know) until The Game, which we never talk about. I recommend it as an approach to staying friendly and cordial.
Anyhow, I watched the Buckeyes a number of times this season. There are things that make me happy, and things that make me worry. Right now, my top happiness: I think their defense is not very good. They do have a few playmakers (Tuimoloau is a beast at DE, and Eichenberg is a good linebacker), but I think their line isn't much different than last year, and their back four are not great bordering on bad. So, this is good: we will be able to move the ball on them, and will be able to score. Not sure if they'll be as Charmin soft as last year though.
A second happiness: Stroud under pressure. He is NOT the same QB when the rush arrives. He is also not a gifted runner (at one point he kept the ball against Maryland on an option read and got lit up). Clearly, getting to him is the difference between him being a Heisman candidate and just ok.
Things that make me unhappy. Well, there are the obvious things. Marvin Harrison Jr. is a beast. He is tall and fast and honestly makes all our receivers seem as if they are in a different class. Even if JSN doesn't come back next week (and I really hope he doesn't) they are a handful because of MHJ.
And, my biggest new unhappiness: they may have found a running back yesterday, some true freshman named Dallan Hayden. Honestly he looked way better than anything I've seen from them this year. Perhaps the only good news is that running is anathema to Day; it feels like they don't think they can depend on it. I hope this continues.
Anyhow, what do you all think? What makes you happy about OSU, and what makes you worry?
My prediction for the Game: it will be a tough one. I'm hoping it's close into the fourth, because the longer it stays close, I think the more we have a chance (OSU really is a frontrunner). But I'm not as optimistic as I was say a few weeks ago. My head says 34-31 OSU, but let's go with the heart: 38-34 UM.
November 20th, 2022 at 8:57 AM ^
One DE wreaking havoc can be a huge problem. Harrison Jr IS a huge problem. Hit Stroud early and often. If a true frost RB beats you, tip your cap.
November 20th, 2022 at 10:06 AM ^
I can't argue with this. Here's the RB:
https://247sports.com/player/dallan-hayden-46057710/
That indirectly gets at OSU's current [1] principal advantage in this rivalry. They can get a bunch of injuries and still fill the space with a 4-star with an impressive offer list. Michigan won't have that available in most cases. Doesn't mean Michigan can't win through superior culture / motivation, but it's still an advantage.
[1] The NIL landscape is still unsettled.
November 20th, 2022 at 11:03 AM ^
Take away what they do best. If they still win then sobeit.
I am not at all worried about their running game. It isn't their culture and UM has a much better run defense than Maryland - who had the ball with a [slim] chance to win.
November 20th, 2022 at 9:00 AM ^
Feelingsball hot take: it felt like Harbaugh was prepared to lose yesterday in order to preserve our players and our gameplan for OSU.
Corum tweeted this morning that he's okay. We really need Mike Morris and some extra pass rush, because our pass rush is a major problem. Hopefully we kept some blitz packages a secret for The Game.
November 20th, 2022 at 9:15 AM ^
Glad to hear Courum is tweeting he is OK. It’s the last game of the regular season, there will be a lot of banged up players, but I want to see good v good Saturday.
November 20th, 2022 at 9:23 AM ^
Jim Harbaugh is incredibly competitive and wants to win everything. But he’s also an NFL coach. And an NFL coach knows better than to go all-out to win a meaningless game. And, other than being Senior Day, yesterday’s game was pretty meaningless. I don’t think Michigan makes the playoff without a victory over OSU, and if they had lost yesterday, they’d still have gotten in with a win over OSU and a win in Indianapolis.
I agree about the pass rush, though. If Stroud doesn’t feel at least some pressure… first one to 50 wins?
November 20th, 2022 at 9:38 AM ^
I actually will be surprised if either team cracks 35. Not like "mind blown" levels, but more of an eyebrow raise level.
November 20th, 2022 at 9:36 AM ^
I remember last year Corum was ruled out for the regular season and then two weeks after he was ruled out he showed up for the OSU game and had a significant impact. The biggest play that comes to mind was his long run to open the second half, and the zone/read, or RPO set with McCarthy which helped free up one of two long passes of the day.
So, it stands to reason that if Corum would come back after being held out, that anyone on the fence (Corum, Edwards, Morris, Schoonmaker) will be back next week.
November 20th, 2022 at 9:36 AM ^
I don't think the hot take is that off. While watching the 2nd half, I started to feel okay-ish about losing the game because it's all about The Game. We might as well get used to coaching strategies like this when the CFP expands.
What's disappointing is Illinois crapping the bed the last two weeks. They played yesterday like a team that should've been ranked. But instead, the narrative will be that we squeaked by an unranked team.
November 20th, 2022 at 9:39 AM ^
They really did shit the bed. They looked legit top 15 just a few weeks ago.
November 20th, 2022 at 9:55 AM ^
They lost to a terrible, terrible Sparty team and have no business being in the conversation of top 25
November 20th, 2022 at 10:11 AM ^
I find it hard to disagree with this. It seemed clear that Harbaugh had done the relevant math on the importance of yesterday...he knew the team could lose and still control its own destiny heading to Columbus with everything to play for.
and if i'm remembering correctly, yesterday was the first time we've seen the team execute out of necessity late in a game this season. That's valuable experience that can't be replicated in a practice/scrimmage environment. Hopefully it serves them well.
GO BLUE.
November 20th, 2022 at 10:25 AM ^
He put some steel in their spines yesterday.
November 20th, 2022 at 10:53 AM ^
Great to hear about Blake ! Follow your heart Swayze, except I also think it will be a lower final score than you think.
November 21st, 2022 at 12:14 AM ^
Putting Corum back in after he was injured made me think coaches were willing to throw away The Game in order to win against Illinois.
November 21st, 2022 at 12:43 AM ^
That’s ridiculous. They put him in for one play. The primary purpose was that if Corum should decide to go to the NFL after this season, which is entirely possible (if not an absolute certainty), then his last carry in the Big House will now be a perfectly serviceable run, not a fumble on a play where he got injured. The secondary purpose was probably to give the team / crowd some energy.
If they were more worried about being Illinois than winning in Columbus — a completely ludicrous idea, incidentally — they’d have kept running Corum when Michigan was behind and they were running Stokes and Gash ineffectively instead.
November 20th, 2022 at 9:02 AM ^
I think the game sadly will come down to JJ and the WRS, and I don't expect enough from them to win. I think Michigan will be able to run some but not for 250 yards. I also think DJ Turner will get smoked next Saturday which obviously isn't ideal. Right now I have OSU 41 Mich 27
November 20th, 2022 at 9:13 AM ^
This won't be a popular take but it's probably the right one. We have to pressure Stroud fairly consistently and execute in the passing game enough to keep their defense honest. Hard to feel optimistic right now about both of those things happening by Saturday in Columbus.
November 20th, 2022 at 9:51 AM ^
That's just not our game. I think we actually need to lean into our strengths and stop trying to force ourselves into the more popular mold of the current era. I'd gladly watch them run on every single play of the first drive and push that DL right into the endzone.
November 20th, 2022 at 9:58 AM ^
We haven't been able to generate a pass rush against anyone in conference play, so don't expect it to magically appear against the best OL on the schedule
November 20th, 2022 at 11:13 AM ^
They're not the best OL on the schedule. Illinois has a better Oline for sure.
November 21st, 2022 at 12:23 AM ^
OSU’s run blocking is average. Their pass protection is top notch. We will have to blitz to get pressure and they pick it up well.
November 20th, 2022 at 9:19 AM ^
That’s a good take, I agree with all of it. Anything can happen on any given Saturday, but the lack of playmakers in the receiving room really lowers UM’s ceiling. The safety play at OSU is at a high level, but their CB’s can be exposed. I just don’t think they can be exposed by UM.
November 20th, 2022 at 9:40 AM ^
Definitely need to actually catch the ball to expose a weak secondary.
November 20th, 2022 at 11:16 AM ^
The safety play at OSU is at a high level, but their CB’s can be exposed. I just don’t think they can be exposed by UM.
This is so true. The strength of Knowles' defense is his use of three safeties, and the safeties have been pretty good. Mostly boring, but when they're not boring, usually good.
The CBs however are the vulnerability in the secondary, Cameron Brown especially. Both Brown & Denzel Burke have been in & out & in & out of the lineup. Burke had some rough moments earlier in the season but Brown has been consistently abused. My biggest concern from the secondary in The Game is Brown getting beat, and Burke to a lesser extent.
November 20th, 2022 at 4:39 PM ^
BC -- this is why you are a solid poster and a positive part of this site. A lot of OSU fans would be all "hurr durr we da best blah blah" but you have always brought realistic takes. It's appreciated.
Let's have a beer someday and toast to the joy of college football -- at least what joy there is left!!
November 20th, 2022 at 9:29 AM ^
I am not sure why it would come down to JJ and WRs. I think TEs and DE will play a huge role even if they stop our rushing attack, which I am not sure they are capable given what they were not able to against a few bad teams.
Their WRs will be a problem, but frankly they were a problem last year. I think their WRs as a group last year was better than this year. MHJ is a beast. The only glaring difference is we had two monsters at DEs last year.
Edit: I will add that JJ's running could be a difference maker this game. Hope he stays healthy and they run him enough times, which I think they will. This is it....
November 20th, 2022 at 11:25 AM ^
If RB1 and RB2 are 100%, I'd feel better about this game. Fact is, we're reasonably sure will be available but at how dinged up? You could never convince me that Donovan woud have played yesterday if he never suited up. A two loss Michigan team definitely doesn't get to the CFB so yesterday's game wasn't meaningless.
I wasn't a believer of JJ's struggles to pass across the middle until I started noticing the number of batted passes at line of scrimmage over the past few weeks. Slants don't appear to be there. Is he tipping off his targets by locking on to receivers? Can't see over his linemen? Pass pro not creating good passing lanes? OSU's secondary looks vulnerable passing over the top which we struggle with all year. And their secondary sees better receivers in practice than what Michigan appears to offer on the field.
I agree JJ looks better passing to the outside and on crossing patterns. I think Corum and Edwards in space one one against linebackers is key in this game.
November 20th, 2022 at 7:10 PM ^
I think even most OSU fans agree that the receiver play outside of Marv hasn’t been at level of last years group. Seems to be the general opinion i’ve read elsewhere on the web. I think it’s particularly apparent in high pressure situations where it seems like CJ tends to tunnel in on MHJ whereas last year that wasn’t really a thing; he had 3 guys who were all equally reliable at making circus catches or winning against coverage.
The flipside to that is any one of the non-Marv guys are still likely better than any receiver we’ve faced, and are particularly consistent with the the fadeball/go-route stuff our guys like to get beat on, but there’s at least some chance that an over reliance on one guy works in Michigan’s favor. Watching some of that Maryland game kinda reminded me of the Staff/Megatron Lions at times.
November 21st, 2022 at 12:38 AM ^
With OSU it’s often the guy we’ve never heard of who lights us up. Olave as a FR comes to mind, he wasn’t on anyone’s radar. Their own fans barely knew who he was.
Harrison might be the best WR they’ve ever had. Dude is legit. I think we just assume he’ll get a few catches and hope he doesn’t get loose on us.
Better watch their TE. They’re not known for throwing to them but this one is getting the ball a lot.
November 20th, 2022 at 9:40 AM ^
I’ve kinda thought the same thing. It’s close for awhile but OSU hits some shots late and wins by 13-17. I know Michigan won last year but there was two players who could always pressure the qb and it doesn’t appear they have that this year. I’m also thinking Michigan doesn’t have the tackles to stop their ends.
November 20th, 2022 at 9:54 AM ^
I think the game is totally up for grabs. So the team that brings its best plan and execution will win. But it is so distressing to see WRs from every other team leap up and make epic catches while our WRs so seldom make a play. If the Game comes down that JJ pass to Anthony in the end zone, will he catch it? It worries me.
November 20th, 2022 at 11:05 AM ^
I will try some advocacy for the devil on this one. Yes, the passing game has been underwhelming. JJ basically hits a double covered Andrel Anthony in the face with a ball, on what is believed to by the players to have been a "free play" and we can't muster a touchdown from this pinpoint accuracy. Isaiah Gash or whomever also stone drops what is likely a touchdown pass.
Next Saturday, November 26, is when it all comes together. JJ whips it around to CJ, Bell, Andrel (makes amends), dumps some off to a newly healthy Donovan, all to the chagrin of 80,000 frozen truck drivers.
42-28 Michigan. OSU keeps it a little closer this time.
November 20th, 2022 at 1:54 PM ^
Question. Why do we characterize OSU fans as truck drivers as if that’s demeaning? I’m not a truck driver but I recognize the importance of them. Pretty condescending to blue collar workers.
November 20th, 2022 at 4:47 PM ^
IIRC this was a Ufer thing.
And characterizing truckers as "less than" is shitty. One of the backbones of the country's commerce.
November 20th, 2022 at 5:28 PM ^
If Michigan is healthy I think they run for 250-300 yards...
...and still might lose.
November 20th, 2022 at 9:02 AM ^
Very simple. Control the ball and get a pass rush. If we do, we win. If we don't, we lose.
November 20th, 2022 at 9:53 AM ^
Depending on pass rush will not get it done. We need solid, well disguised coverage and bracket MHJ all day.
November 20th, 2022 at 9:59 AM ^
Yeah, if Stroud can just stand in the pocket for ten seconds and survey the field, we're dead. Will need to pull out some new blitzes cause we're not getting there organically with our front four. Our DEs getting home with a four-man rush was the biggest key to the game last year imo
November 21st, 2022 at 12:40 AM ^
Even with pressure Stroud went for 395 on us. Give him all day and he’ll go Caleb Willams on us.
November 20th, 2022 at 9:05 AM ^
I think that’s a pretty good overview. Their D is aggressive so need to get their DE and LBs moving the wrong way.
My take on Ms chances lies in injury status. BC2 and Edwards have to be north of 90% healthy, Schoon would be nice, and Morris is a must have.
I expect to see a 2017 level game plan. Just need to execute and not let MHJ behind the D more than once.
November 20th, 2022 at 9:11 AM ^
I think Edwards is a key part of the game plan. He’s the X factor that can destroy their defense. Betting they have a number of ways to scheme getting him covered by a LB.
November 20th, 2022 at 9:26 AM ^
Very true.
The Morris absence was noticeable yesterday as was Corum and Edwards. We're going to need all our pieces on the field.
November 20th, 2022 at 11:10 AM ^
I think the fear after watching yesterday is that we might get 2017 results from the passing game. The plays will be there, but I got 2017 feelings from some of those overthrows and drops.
November 20th, 2022 at 11:44 AM ^
JJ would not have missed wide open Chris Evans across the middle late.
November 21st, 2022 at 12:46 AM ^
Harrison isn’t a guy who takes the top off a D. He is a guy who will make impossible catches all day long. He does get YAC yards but most teams bracket him so he doesn’t get loose very often.
We have to watch their TE. He can run, LBs can’t cover him and DBs struggle to tackle him in space. Also, 32, their RB is really dangerous in the passing game. Fortunately he isn’t great in their run game.
November 20th, 2022 at 9:09 AM ^
Look everyone is gonna have to play their A+ game.
More specifically, we don't have the DEs to get pressure from the edge. So we need to dial up the old Dantoni special: A gap blitzes, disguised, and feinged and the interior DTs need to get push and make Stroud uncomfortable.
That plus run the ball, use play action, let the ball spin on 1st down 50% and play the nation's best special teams and M will win.
November 20th, 2022 at 9:13 AM ^
I have nowhere to post this and probably not worthy of a thread...
Did they have a moment of silence or anything for the UVa players who were killed at the stadium?
November 20th, 2022 at 9:25 AM ^
Yes. And, for the most part, it was reasonably effective. There were a couple of yahoos but overall, the silence was notable.