OSU opened at -2.5 v. UM, quickly moved to UM -1.5; MSU opens at -1.5 v. PSU

Submitted by Dawkins on

OSU +1.5 @ Michigan

PSU +1.5 @ Michigan State

All 3 teams - Michigan, OSU and MSU - NEED a win next week, and according to the gamblers these games are both virtual tossups. 

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ijohnb

November 23rd, 2015 at 2:22 PM ^

the coaches just had major faith in the O'Conner/Terry combo pack, I think it would be somewhat unreasonable to think that Cook is going to play this weekend.  I don't really think you go from not being able to play as a major underdog in the biggest game of the season to being able and ready to play in a game you are expected to win with your backups.  I don't think anybody has really seen Cook throw a pass since the Maryland game.  There was no evidence that he did so on Saturday at any point as far as I could tell.

I still think this is a little low, particularly when Hackenberg was having trouble walking around toward the end of the game with Michigan.

Joined: 09/21/2009

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Everyone Murders

November 23rd, 2015 at 2:38 PM ^

I think you're spot-on regarding Cook.  I'm not sure the line is low, though - while O'Conner had a great game in soggy conditions, I like PSU's chances a LOT more with Cook out.  If Cook is out and PSU plays up to its potential ...

/coughs, spits out a bit of sputum, tries not to giggle/

this could be a gut-punch game for MSU.  Cook is easily the best player MSU has on offense, and maybe the best across-the-board.  If he's out, this is anything but a gimme for Sparty.

Joined: 12/14/2010

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ijohnb

November 23rd, 2015 at 2:56 PM ^

issue is one of a motivational imbalance.  Yes, I know that Penn State as a "program" needs a big win, but the individuals players are not "the program," they are kids playing on Thanksgiving weekend in the freezing cold to determine whether they will go to the Outback Bowl or the Gator Bowl while MSU is playing with everything right in front of them. 

A little bit of this kind of imbalance allows for one team to relax while the other tenses up, but too much of it (which is what I fear is at play here) can result in one team playing hard and the other just mailing it in.  That is what I fear here.  I would rather have State playing a team that is really trying to get bowl eligible or something like that.

I would like to think that the historic Land Grant Trophy is enough to get Penn State really pumped but that is just too funny to believe.

EDIT - (unrelated, but just glanced at Game Notes on mgoblue.  Nessler and Blackledge calling The Game, for anybody who was wondering).

Joined: 09/21/2009

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MGoGrendel

November 23rd, 2015 at 3:25 PM ^

are the last of the JoePa kids.  They may have motivation for that and not even think about which bowl.

Plus, it's always great to ruin someone's season.

Joined: 01/21/2013

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wahooverine

November 23rd, 2015 at 3:26 PM ^

Pretty sure Penn State will be motivated to a) spoil MSU's playoff hopes, b) win a trophy game, c) wash away the taste of a tough loss with a win, especially by beating the team that just knocked off mighty OSU without it's all american QB, and d) finish their season by knocking of a top 10 ranked in conference, divisional rival, especially one that is beatable.  If they don't have motivation to win, why are they playing big time college football?  I don't think tempeture, distance from home, or bowl selection are top-of-mind motivating factors for individual players.

Joined: 11/14/2011

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NittanyFan

November 23rd, 2015 at 3:45 PM ^

Penn State should have been motivated last week --- last home game, the opportunity to give their coach his first "signature win", PSU still had a chance to win the B1G East (and as things broke, PSU would STILL have a chance now if they had beaten U-M).

But honestly, though, I didn't see too much of that on Saturday.  They played hard, but they didn't exactly look over-the-top excited.  PSU also doesn't have a ton of leadership, from what I've seen.  A lot different vs. either the 2012 or 2013 PSU teams, which both won their finale against good Wisconsin teams though those teams literally had "nothing to play for." (there was no Bowl game ahead)

It's supposed to be partly sunny and 38 degrees in East Lansing Saturday.  It will be colder than that once the sun goes down after the 1st quarter.

If MSU gets an early lead and the crowd gets into things and starts chanting "We Want Iowa" and the defense starts blitzing a lot and the offensive line can't block anybody ---- it would be fairly easy to just sit in front of the heaters and "pack it in" and not fight.  Honestly, what I'm expecting.

Joined: 12/04/2012

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TrueBlue2003

November 23rd, 2015 at 7:23 PM ^

when the only thing to do to protect yourself from disappointment is to expect the worst.  Seemed like PSU played fairly hard last week, but were beaten by a much better team. Agree that they didn't look out of their minds pumped up.  

A Cook-less MSU probably isn't much better than PSU, but the o line disparity will be huge.  Definitely would need to get a few breaks even if the defense can contain MSU without Cook.

Joined: 01/05/2010

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FauxMo

November 23rd, 2015 at 3:26 PM ^

Well, we can be sure of one thing... With that opening line basically saying that PSU is a favorite on a neutral field, Dantonio's assistant is out buying a party size 10 lb. bag of Doritos. Two, in fact, one for each shoulder...

Joined: 06/17/2010

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Hulk Henne

November 23rd, 2015 at 3:32 PM ^

EDIT - (unrelated, but just glanced at Game Notes on mgoblue. Nessler and Blackledge calling The Game, for anybody who was wondering).

Thanks...we finally got a good announce team! 

Joined: 11/15/2015

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Michigan4Harbaugh

November 23rd, 2015 at 4:10 PM ^

Whooooooooooo!!!! Nessler and Blackledge calling The Game!!! Immediately does the HAL SUTTON FIST PUMP!!!

Joined: 01/20/2015

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DutchWolverine

November 23rd, 2015 at 3:55 PM ^

He actually "threw" pregame on Saturday, albeit very softly to test the shoulder.  But you are right--hard to imagine he would be anywhere near ful strength, but this is just as much of a "must win" for them as the OSU game.

Joined: 01/09/2011

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UM Fan from Sydney

November 23rd, 2015 at 2:16 PM ^

I know that MSU isn't that great of a team, but how the hell are they not favored by more than that? I have a feeling that game won't be very close.

Joined: 09/17/2015

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Dawkins

November 23rd, 2015 at 2:22 PM ^

That's a pretty sensible spread. MSU's secondary is still shit despite OSU (for whatever unknown reason) opting not to throw deep, and PSU has a true deep threat receiver in Saquan Barkley. On offense, MSU's starting QB is missing an arm and their backup QBs combined for a mere 91 passing yards and 32 rushing yards (123 yards total) against OSU, and PSU's D-Line is its biggest strength and one of the best in the nation. 

Joined: 05/24/2015

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ijohnb

November 23rd, 2015 at 2:34 PM ^

is a pretty good film breakdown over on Eleven Warriors regarding OSU's offensive struggles.  It looks like there were some opportunties there within the gameplan to get some things done that they did not execute on.  More than anything, it looks like they had an opportunity to play from the pocket fairly comfortably but had game planned to roll out away from Calhoun the entire game but were actually rolling themselves right to like the exact spot the pressure was coming from and just did not adjust.  The ill-conceived game plan can happen, the failure to even begin to adjust is what I think speaks to an insufficient offensive staff.

Joined: 09/21/2009

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UESWolverine

November 23rd, 2015 at 2:27 PM ^

I feel like this is one of those time where I need to put a lot of money on MSU to cover the 1.5 points. If they cover, I will be very happy to win a lot of money. If they lose, I will be very happy that we get to play Iowa. It's like I can't lose.

Joined: 01/21/2013

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Eastern Wolverine

November 23rd, 2015 at 2:33 PM ^

Will Carl Nassib play against MSU? He was unable to go for most of last Saturday's game. IMO that was a significant factor in Michigan pulling out the W. Is Hackenberg nursing an arm injury or will he be fine come Saturday? I don't know the answers but remember for much of the game last weekend PSU was within striking distance. Nassib in particular if remotely healthy can/will be a beast against MSU.

Joined: 03/14/2013

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HAIL-YEA

November 23rd, 2015 at 11:10 PM ^

wondering that myself. He didn't get hurt against Michigan though he was hurt the game before against Northwestern. He tried to go for a few plays but I guess he wasn't healthy enough. Franklin doesnt talk injuries so I don't know what his injury is. Hopefully he is back to healthy this week and also I am very happy Zettel did not get ejected in he 2nd half for targeting now. It would suck to have him out against MSU. 

Joined: 07/15/2009

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I Love Lamp

November 23rd, 2015 at 3:15 PM ^

Everyone knew what OSU was going to do....and it still took a kick at the end to win. If everyone is bashing OSU up and down for their coaching and play, then I find it hard to give msu that much or any props. That being said, I don't care what the circumstances are, that spread seems awful low

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TrueBlue2003

November 23rd, 2015 at 7:34 PM ^

the State o line dominated towards the end.  They ran like 22 of 23 plays to end the game. OSU knew it was coming and couldn't stop it.  Maybe the o line is now truly healthy, and ready to dominate the run game like they haven't all year.

Everyone is talking about how OSU offense lost that by going conserative but the D got owned in the run game, especially on the second TD drive and FG drive, even though it was obvious what was coming.

This worries me a bit.  Gonna need that PSU D line playing at its highest level.

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