National trend of Michigan's 2014 class
With the 11th addition to the 2014 class, it's clear there has been an increased focus on more players from outside the midwest this year. I passed it off to chance that more national prospects were interested in MIchigan this year but it appears that Meyer is also locking down the state of Ohio again. I know small sample sizes and all, but they currently have 6 of the top 10 players in Ohio and are very likely to land the last 2 uncommitted from that top 10. 2015 looks to be similar with only 1 of the top 10 seemling favoring Michigan.
Maybe it took Meyer some time to get set in Ohio while Hoke had a years head start but it's interesting to see the shift as he seems to be locking down the state in a manner similar to Tressel. Fortunately, Hoke is showing the ability to recruit outside of the region and do a killer job of it.
http://247sports.com/Season/2014-Football/RecruitRankings?InstitutionGr…
but I never really heard us being in on any of the top guys from Ohio this year anyway. Most of our more local guys are actually coming from Michigan, Illinois, and Western PA. If New Jersey is more recruitable because it's in the conference footprint and such, then maybe there are fewer guys out of Ohio that are real needs anyway.
IMO the more accurate question is who would you really want from OH? Seems like a down year for talent in the state. Of the rivals top 10 from there; Berger is the only one I’d really want to add over what we have already. Lattimore would be nice on offense (NOT giving up Drake!!), also not on defense if it cost us Peppers or Westphal. Booker would be great, but same position as Ferns and I’d rather have Michael. I prefer everyone we are in on the OLine and rest of the offense and same with DLine and most of the defensive side. (Although I guess I concede Horton would fit nicely, but doubt he would come following Green and the couple of great backs we are strong with in 2015.)
Not worried about recruits, I just found it interesting how MIchigan got 4-5 of the top 10 from Ohio in 2012 and 2013 and this year it dropped to 1. If Hoke keeps pulling in players like Peppers, who gives a damn about Ohio.
I see your point, however maybe it is because we don't have a need at those positions that the top 10 players within Ohio play or that there are players in Michigan in which you can recruit with much more ease for a position of need compared to Ohio recruits. I don't think we should ever steer clear away from recruiting Ohio though. Carr did towards the end and RR had little success there. They provide great football players and we need to acknowledge that, and put the time and efforts into bringing their kids to AA.
I don't think the class of recruits in Ohio is as good as it has been in the past two or three years. There aren't many guys in the 2014 class that I really want(ed), except maybe Marshon Lattimore and Dante Booker. They traditionally put out some good offensive and defensive linemen, but I don't see much quality there.
There weren't a ton of great guys in Ohio this year. There were almost as many good recruits in Michigan. Drake Harris, Malik McDowell, Damon webb, Lawrence Marshall.
I just checked, and that's correct. Basically, it looks like there are four 5.9s and higher in the state this year; we got one (Ferns), Kentucky got one, and Ohio already has one, with the last one looking like a lean that way. Then, there are some 5.8s who have pledged, but by no means all, and they actually have quite a few three stars out of the state as well. Michigan was just similar in talent this year, so the push in Ohio was less.
I think this is astute. It would be naive to think that Urban locking down Ohio recruits is just a random blip, and it takes extreme historical blinders to think that Ohio is irrelevant to Michigan. Woodson and Howard both came from Ohio, and when Tressel closed the gate Ohio State dominated us for years.
It is extremely encouraging that Michigan is now not only in on top national recruits, but landing them; it is also a bit concerning that Ohio is getting cut off. Barring a turn toward a USC/Alabama like run of national recruiting dominance (I wouldn't mind that at all, assuming it was ethical) Michigan is going to need to consistently land talent in Ohio to win B1G and national titles.
We have fewer Ohio commits than last year. What you're ignoring, however, is how many offers we have to Ohio prospects, compared to last year. It's not like we've offered a ton of Ohio kids, and they're all going to OSU.
By my count, we have offered 9 players in Ohio, 10 if you count Tate who looks like he's playing basketball. 3 of those dudes have committed to OSU, with Lattimore looking close. One is obviously Ferns. Some of those guys we aren't recruiting that hard either, like Joe Henderson and LJ Scott.
So our lack of Ohio commits is mostly due to fewer Ohio players that we're interested in, not that Urban has sucked them all up.
Per 247, Michigan offered 17 Ohio prospects in 2013 as opposed to 8 prospects in 2014. This makes it clear that Michigan simply did not want as many players from Ohio this year.
The lack of Ohio recruits would be worrisome if Hoke was settling for lesser prospects but, as has been pointed out, he is getting higher rated recruits instead. If Ohio is locked down a couple years from now and Hoke is getting shut out nationally then there will be reason for concern. I guess he could always take a few cues from one of his coaching neighbors and start recruiting internationally and galactically if that happens.
I don't think Hoke really cares what state a kid comes from. They're going to cast a wide net, and then focus on the prospects they really like and who have mutual interest.
Last year was a big year in Ohio, and there were a lot of guys we liked who either didn't have OSU offers (McCray, Charlton, Butt, Douglas, Dukes, Dawson) or guys who had OSU offers and wanted us more than them (Smith, Gedeon, Thomas). This year, some of the guys who fit those needs have just come from other places. We got Bunting from IL, instead of Butt from OH. We got Ways from MI, instead of Dukes from OH. Peppers instead of Thomas, etc.
Some years Ohio will be deep, and we'll take a lot of guys from there. Other years they won't be and we'll take fewer. This is the way it has always been; it has little to do with Urban locking anything down.
I agree with this. Also, what you describe resembles Michigan's recruiting strategy during the John Cooper era--Michigan pulled elite talent nationally, but still got players from Ohio often enough.
while it may vary from year to year, in long term,
1. Ohio State will always get more talents from the state of Ohio than Michigan, but Michigan will always get its fair share.
2. Michigan's will always recruit more national than Ohio State because it has more prestige.
Everyone isn't the same. Brady can't just say "I want 5 of the top 10 in Ohio this year". Some years (maybe this year), everyone in that group wants to go to Ohio and some years (2013) a lot of them are open to coming to Michigan. Brady & Co. don't always have a huge potential on that fact
Next year we might get 5 of the top 10 again and we'll wonder why the focus is changed again. Focus probably hasn't changed, just what guys are interested in Michigan
I agree with that, altough this year is more like Brady saying "I'm only interested in the top 5 this year" which just means we only get one or two of them. Which is fine because a) we have a small class, and b) other states (New Jersey, anyone?) are being good to us.
Michigan is the only state where where it's pivotal for us to get the top talent. Outside of our own state, we'll recruit guys who fit our needs and have a mutual interest. If those outside recruits are OSU targets from Ohio, it's just icing on the cake! If not, oh well. Ohio State should be locking up their best in-state recruits, so it's no sweat off our backs if that's what's happening.
where the elite talent in Michigan was equal to the elite talent in Ohio and our numbers were low, so the push wasn't as strong.
Don't get too caught up in 2015 recruiting. The rankings change so much between when kids are sophomores and when they finish their senior football season. I think we'll do fine in 2015.
We'll steal a recruit or two in Ohio, a few in Michigan, hopefully one in Kentucky, and probably a couple in Illinois, New Jersey, and some out west. 2015 will be a small class, so nothing to fret about too much.
The gates are as open as they've ever been, thanks in part to Coach Hoke.
I just want to know what the hell Webb has been drinking?
Ohio is usually a very deep state, and what people forget is that Michigan has made a pretty good living off of guys that OSU doesn't want, or offers but as a lower priority. Guys like Jake Ryan, Jibreel Black, Elliott Mealer, Roy Roundtree and Fitz Toussaint have been guys in the recent past who have been anywhere from pretty good to great who OSU didn't want and we picked up. It's likely guys like Jack Miller, Jake Butt, Taco Charlton and others follow in that mold.
Maybe that was his intent all along, maybe it wasn't. But whatever his plan is, its working.
IMO, Hoke and Mattison know what type of kids they want and they can reel in talent from anywhere in the country as proven this year. The state doesn't matter, as long as we show we can win, this coaching staff will continue to get elite talent !!!
Kids from those states are blue collar and understand the rivalry, states do matter.
Also because local recruiting is more of a zero sum game. If we miss on a player from California, chances are that player will never play a game against us. If we miss on a player from Michigan or Ohio, he'll probably be playing against us the next 4 years.
Urban isn't keeping UM out and Michigan isn't trying to avoid Ohio. Talent goes up and down each year in Ohio. Urban likes following recruiting sites and going after national kids. Hoke may focus on national kids which then makes the Ohio kids feel more live from OSU or the reverse. Etc.
The real assessment is who is winning the head to head battle for mutually pursued kids. That matters a lot more than state of citizenship.
This is from the Rivals database, so results might be a little different than 247.
We won't know the final tally for a while, but to date for the 2014 recruits, there are actually 194 who have offers from Michigan and Ohio State. Of those, 13 are from the state of Ohio and we have one commit to Ohio State's six. It's way early yet, and there isn't enough data on 2015 to even make any sort of estimate.
If you look at the period from 2011 to 2013, however, there were 651 recruits that had an offer from Michigan and Ohio State, and 101 of those were Ohio kids. In that period, we managed to get 25 of them and Ohio State managed to get 38.
I actually clicked away from it, but I captured enough to give some high-level figures with Ohio as the basis for comparison - it will sound strange, but it will tell some of the story anyway. I sadly didn't capture specifically instances where, say, both Ohio State and Michigan were in the top 5 for a recruit.
For the Urban era specifically - In 2012, 15 of Ohio State's 25 commits were from Ohio, compared to 9 for us. In 2013, both schools had 9 commits from Ohio, but Ohio State's class size was 24 to our 27. So far in the 2014 cycle, 6 of Ohio State's 9 verbal commits are from Ohio, whereas only 1 of the 10 we have is from Ohio. In the two complete cycles - 2012 and 2013 - 46% of Ohio State's commits came from the state of Ohio, compared to 36% of ours.
In the 2011-2013 period, over half (52%) of Ohio State's commits come from Ohio, compared to 35% for us. Particularly this year, however, it seems that Urban has stayed home to date whereas we've been having success all over the place, and that's great for Michigan as a program really in terms of our profile. Based on rough figures, it certainly seems like we have greater success nationally.
I know a lot of these offers are just placeholders but it is still amazing that to get 15 to 20 kids schools put out some 200 offers. That's a 10% signing to offer rate.
Hoke is from Ohio and knows the type of talent that can come from Ohio and that, long term, he can't just give Ohio away. He'll recruit Ohio and keep relationships strong with high school coaches in Ohio. It simply isn't Ohio or bust, and that's good.
Hoke is recruiting against the backdrop of Ohio dominating us in recent years. Ohio has beaten Michigan regularly within the football memories of seventeen year olds. That should change.
Not only will some years be deeper in terms of ohio talent, but it's always going to be up in the air as to how many of those guys will seriously consider coming to Michigan. Let's face it: A lot of these guys are raised worshipping ohio and if they get an offer then they're going to almost always head to Columbus. What percentage of kids are like that will change every year. We shouldn't be discouraged if one year has a few less players interested than another - and in any case, the more we win, the more kids will grow up as Wolverine fans. But this fluctuation is good reason to grab the top Michigan kids and continue to recruit nationally. As long as this program keeps winning, we'll land our share nationally enough that we don't have to panic if one year in ohio isn't as good as the last.
All that being said, people are way to quick to read things into the number of commits from here or there in a single recruiting cycle. Early on, depending on your perspective Hoke was either doing a great job because he was stealing all these ohio kids or he was doing a poor job of recruiting nationally. Now he's either doing a great job because he's getting kids from all over, or he's dropping the ball in ohio. Conversely, early on Meyer was doing a fantastic job nationally or allowing ohio kids to slip away and burning his local bridges in the process. Now he's either winning ohio again and shutting Hoke out, or his national reach is drying up. Which narrative do you prefer?
It just may be that every cycle is a little different, and you have to grab the top players that are interested in your program regardless of where they come from. It can't be that simple, can it?
Yes your first point is critical. With CFB being the national sport in Ohio, there are some kids who were just born into the system and you are not going to flip them no matter what. So I think after a conversation or two and just talking to their coaches Hoke & Co are going to know quite quickly who those kids are. No reason to waste resources on those kids who are going to the school they have been surrounded by every moment of their lives.
Then there are kids who are open minded and the others who want to "be rebels/different" who Michigan is going to have a good chance with. This year also seems to be a down year for Ohio talent versus normal so less players available - if in any year you have 20 Ohio players that can be shared among the 2 schools at this specific talent but this year it is 15 that is by nature going to reduce the Ohio focus.
Look in the long run Urban is going to get a majority of Ohio players - any coach coaching that university will. Michigan will continue to have a pipeline. If it fluctuates by 2-4 players every year none of these things are going to change.