Michigan Wolverines Confidence Picks

7 Utah

10 Oregon State

12 UNLV

8 BYU

7 Maryland

11 Northwestern

6 Michigan State

12  BYE

8 Minnesota

9 Rutgers

11 Indiana

6 Penn State

4 Ohio State

UNLV 12

Rut 11

Ind 10

NW 9

Ore St 8

Mrylnd 7

BYU 6

Min 5

Utah 4

MSU 3

Psu 2

Osu 1

12 - Ohio State

11 - Penn State

10 - Indiana

9 - Rutgers

8 - Minnesota

7 - Michigan State

6 - Northwestern

5 - Maryland

4 - UNLV

3 - Oregon State

2- Utah

1 - BYU

Did I misread? I thought you were asking us to make a pick for each game then weight that pick with a 1-12 confidence score.  Not just rank Michigan's win probability.  Then you'll multiply the correct picks by the confidence assigned to it.  Seems like I'm the only one who thought this? All I'm seeing is rankings of Michigan's likelihood of winning.

1 Penn State 2 OSU 3 MSU 4 Utah 5 BYU 6 Maryland 7 Northwestern 8 Minnesota 9 Indiana 10 Oregon State 11 Rutgers 12 UNLV

A Utah 4

H Oregon State 11

H UNLV 12

H BYU 6

A Maryland 7

H Northwestern 8

H Michigan State 2

A Minnesota 5

H Rutgers 10

A Indiana 9

A Penn State 3

H Ohio State 1

1. H Ohio State (Nov 28)
2. H Michigan State (Oct 17)
3. A Utah (Sept 3)
4. A Penn State (Nov 21)
5. H BYU (Sept 26)
6. A Minnesota (Oct 31)
7. H Northwestern (Oct 10)
8. A Maryland (Oct 3)
9. A Indiana (Nov 14)
10. H Rutgers (Nov 7)
11. H Oregon State (Sept 12)
12. H UNLV (Sept 19)

Maryland will be worse than people think as will Minn IMO.  Maryland was smoke and mirrors last year mostly benefiting from a top heavy division with PSU/UM lost in the weeds.  Minn lost its top 2 weapons on offense and is not a team that "reloads" even if the staff is cool and they have nice DBs.   Only trepidation on those 2 games is on the road and I have Brady Hoke PTSD for road games.  To borrow from Cowherd I want to short Minn (relative to hype) for the next 12 months and then go long a year from now when people return to reality.

PSU is not great but similar to UM with a NFL QB and the most underrated DC in the conf.  And tough environment.  BYU has a QB that will cause UM fans nightmares.




 

12 UNLV
11 Oregon State
10 Rutgers
9 Indiana
8 Northwestern
7 Maryland
6 Penn State
5 Utah
4 Minnesota
3 BYU
2 Michigan State
1 Ohio State

12. UNLV
11. Rutgers
10. Oregon St.
9. Indiana
8. Northwestern
7. Maryland
6. BYU
5. Minnesota
4. Utah
3. Penn State
2. MSU
1. OSU

1. OSU
2. PSU
3. Utah
4. MSU
5. Minn
6. BYU
7. Maryland
8. Rutgers
9. Northwestern
10. Indiana
11. Oregon State
12. UNLV

so just put me down for 144

 

 

 

1 - H Ohio State (Nov 28)

2 - H Michigan State (Oct 17)

3 - A Utah (Sept 3)

4 - A Penn State (Nov 21)

5 - A Minnesota (Oct 31)

6 - A Maryland (Oct 3)

7 - H BYU (Sept 26)

8 - A Indiana (Nov 14)

9 - H Oregon State (Sept 12)

10 - H Northwestern (Oct 10)

11 - H UNLV (Sept 19)

12 - H Rutgers (Nov 7)

ALL THE POINTS - BYE
 
 
 
 
 

12 UNLV
11 Rutgers
10 BYU
9 Oregon State
8 Minnesota
7 Northwestern
6 Utah
5 Indiana
4 Michigan State
3 Maryland
2 Ohio State
1 Penn State

Why is everybody so worried about PSU? We beat them last year under Hoke.

12- UNLV

11- OSU (NTOSU)

10- Rutgers

9- Maryland

8- Indiana

7- Rutgers

6- Penn State

5- Utah

4- Minnesota

3- BYU

2- MSU

1- OSU (YTOSU)

Whenever I watched BYU on television, they didn't look that good. Their defense gave up 23 points to UNLV.

I'd go 1. Ohio 2. MSU 3. Utah 4. Minnesota 5. BYU 6. Penn State 7. Maryland 8. Northwestern 9. Oregon State 10. Indiana 11. Rutgers 12. UNLV

We have the rivalry games that will be very tough to win in year one. Behind that, there's a bunch of games that could go either way in Utah, Minny, BYU, or PSU. Then you have a bunch of games that I just don't see us losing unless it's Maryland and Jimmy's not losing to Maryland. 6-6 is worst case, 8-4 or 9-3 if we split our tossups, 10-2 if we win all of our toss ups or upset one of our rivals.

4 - Utah 10 - Oregon State 12 - UNLV 6 - BYU 7 - Maryland 8 -Northwestern 5 - MSU 3 - Minnesota 9 - Rutgers 11 - Indiana 2 - Penn State 1 - Ohio State I think we will knock off MSU at home. PSU and Minnesota may be a tough road games. Hopefully we take care of the middle and lower end B1G teams, unlike last season!

Rebs - 12 Hoosiers - 11 Beavs - 10 Cats - 9 Knights - 8 Terps - 7 Gophs - 6 Cougs - 5 Nitts - 4 Sharty - 3 Utes - 2 THE Nuts - 1

12 - UNLV - weakest team we play

11 - Oregon State - home opener, stadium will be rocking

10 - Northwestern - we seem to own them

9 - Indiana - we own them too

8 - Rutgers - home revenge, it will be 2 decades before Rutgers wins in AA

7 - BYU - home momentum

6 - Minnesota - good team on the road, but Harbaugh has 2 weeks to prepare

5 - Maryland - revenge

4 - Penn State - feeling less confident now, difficult road game

3 - Utah - tough team on the road

2 - Ohio State - we have played them tougher than the Spartans lately

1 - Michigan State - a game I would love to see us win

UNLV-12

Rutgers-11

Indiana-10

Oregon State-9

NW-8

Maryland-7

Penn State-6

BYU-5

Minnesota-4

Ohio State-3

Utah-2

MSU-1

Honestly, I'm confident they'll win all these games except MSU and Utah.

A Utah (Sept 3) 5 H Oregon State (Sept 12) 11 H UNLV (Sept 19) 12 H BYU (Sept 26) 4 A Maryland (Oct 3) 7 H Northwestern (Oct 10) 9 H Michigan State (Oct 17) 2 BYE A Minnesota (Oct 31) 6 H Rutgers (Nov 7) 10 A Indiana (Nov 14) 8 A Penn State (Nov 21)3 H Ohio State (Nov 28) 1

12- H Rutgers (Nov 7)

11- H UNLV (Sept 19)

10- H Northwestern (Oct 10)

9- A Indiana (Nov 14)

8-A Maryland (Oct 3)

7- H Oregon State (Sept 12)

6-H BYU (Sept 26)

5- A Penn State (Nov 21)

4- A Utah (Sept 3)

3- A Minnesota (Oct 31)

2- H Michigan State (Oct 17)

1- H Ohio State (Nov 28

A Utah (Sept 3) - 3

H Oregon State (Sept 12) - 11

H UNLV (Sept 19) -12

H byu (Sept 26) - 5

A Maryland (Oct 3) - 9

H Northwestern (Oct 10) - 10

H Mich State (Oct 17) - 2

BYE

A Minnesota (Oct 31) - 6

H Rutgers (Nov 7) - 7

A Indiana (Nov 14) - 8

A Penn State (Nov 21) - 4

H ohio st. (Nov 28) - 1

12 UNLV 11 Oregon State 10 Rutgers 9 Indiana 8 Northwestern 7 Maryland 6 Utah 5 Minnesota 4 Penn State 3 BYU 2 Michigan State 1 Ohio State

Hard to say without knowing who the QB is and what kind of play we get from them this year. I think our defense will be solid, so as long as our offense isn't turning it over we should be at 9 or 10 wins easily.

My picks: with my rationale for each 

 

12: UNLV (only non-power 5 team we play and they are a bad one)

11: Oregon State (Oregon State was worse than we were last year, their new coach is less impressive than our new coach, traditionally terrible on the road, and it's Harbaugh's homecoming)

10: Northwestern (If Brady Hoke can go 4-0 vs. Northwestern [3 of which were on the road], Harbaugh is not going to lose to them at home in front of a more amped up than usual homecoming crowd)

9: Rutgers (Only reason I put this ahead of Maryland is that it's later in the year and at home. I have full confidence Rutgers will be better than both Maryland and Indiana this year, despite me placing them below)

8: Maryland (This is the game we lost last year that more than any other we gave away/shouldn't have lost. And Maryland loses basically their entire team from last year. And look for there to be a large East Coast Wolverine contingent in attendance.)

7: Indiana (I only have this higher than MD and Rutgers because (compared to Rutgers) it's in a road venue and (compared to Maryland) it's against a team more hungry to beat us. More importantly, if there is a "we blow a game because we were looking ahead to the next opponent(s)" this is definitely that game for me with PSU and OSU on deck)

6: Minnesota (Honestly, my prediction is that Minnesota will win the Big Ten West and probably be better than both Utah and PSU come season's end. However, this is the least intimidating road crowd of the three and Minnesota hasn't beaten us at home in THIRTY-EIGHT YEARS or won the Brown Jug twice in a row in FIFTY-TWO YEARS) 

5: Penn State (This game, to me, will be the best test of how successful Harbaugh's first season is. To deem it a success, more than any other single factor, winning this game matters to me. Penn State was not better than us last year (we beat them and they were 2-6 in the Big Ten, only made a bowl game because they had the easiest non-conference schedule in the BIG), so this to me is a blue blood team that doesn't have a talent/experience edge over us. And a team like that is one that a good Michigan team should beat. Also, we really, really, desperately need to prove that we can win in a non-Evanston road setting and this road game is the best opportunity for that. Plus, we should never have lost in 2013 and need revenge.)

4: Utah (First game of the season makes me both hopeful for a victory [extra energy and motivation] and nervous for a defeat [most inexperience and least time for HARBAUGH to take effect]. Rational part of my brain leans more strongly to the latter)

3: BYU (This game scares me. We don't match up well with BYU on offense or defense, our fans are overlooking this game [just checked on MGoBlue, this game has thousands less seats sold than even the UNLV game], and BYU is a team more likely, in my opinion, to finish a very tough September stretch hungry rather than exhausted. I know this game is at home and the Utah game is away, but I feel very confident that BYU has more talent than Utah [teams were close last year, but Utah loses much more])

2: Ohio (In my mind, picking them as more likely to beat than MSU is a no brainer. Urban has shown he has no mental edge on us (despite a large talent/coaching edge), as every game has been very close (until literally the last 5 minutes of the last one, a game I was in attendance for that had Buckeye fans stunned), despite the fact that every Urban team has been much better (except 2012. ugh, that game was ours). This game is always close at the Big House even when they're much better than us and it's about time we finally get a break our way in a close game. 

1: Michigan State (Earlier in the season than OSU [negative assuming continual improvement], we'll be ready for a bye week and we just haven't had any sense of mental toughness for this game in many years [2012 doesn't count because, in my opinion, we were much better than them that year and the fact they made it so close in Ann Arbor shows their mental edge even more])

12 UNLV - 11 Rutgers - 10 Oregon State - 9 Northwestern - 8 Indiana - 7 Utah - 6 Minnesota - 5 Maryland - 4 BYU - 3 Penn State - 2 MSU - 1 Ohio

A Utah - 2

H Oregon St. - 11

H UNLV - 12

H BYU - 6

A Maryland - 7

H Northwestern - 9

H MSU - 3

A Minnesota - 4

H Rutgers - 8

A Indiana - 10

A Penn St. - 5

H Ohio St. - 1

12 - UNLV

11 - Indiana

10 - Northwestern

9 - Oregon State

8 - Rutgers

7 - Maryland

6 - Utah

5 - Minnesota

4 - Penn State

3 - BYU

2 - MSU

1 - OSU

3     Utah (Sept 3)
9     Oregon State (Sept 12)
12  UNLV (Sept 19)
4     BYU (Sept 26)
6     Maryland (Oct 3)
8     Northwestern (Oct 10)
2     Michigan State (Oct 17)
7     Minnesota (Oct 31)
10   Rutgers (Nov 7)
11   Indiana (Nov 14)
5     Penn State (Nov 21)
1     Ohio State (Nov 28)

That was fun. Go Blue!

12 Utah
12 Oregon State
12 UNLV
12 BYU
12 Maryland
12 Northwestern
12 MSU
12 Minnesota
12 Rutgers
12 Indiana
12 Penn State
12 OSU

12-win season: There is no lose for Michigan looking forward, only a fight to the finish

Go Blue!

12 - UNLV
11 - Rutgers
10 - NW
9 - Oregon State
8 - Indiana
7 - BYU
6 - Maryland
5 - Penn State
4 - MSU
3 - Minnesota
2 - Utah
1 - OSU

12 - UNLV
11- Rutgers
10 - Oregon State
9 - Northwestern
8 - Indiana
7 - BYU
6 - Maryland
5 - Minnesota
4 - Penn State
3 - Utah
2 - Michigan State
1 - OSU