November 1st, 2022 at 7:17 PM ^
Behind Clemson? TCU behind Bama? Absolute garbage
November 1st, 2022 at 7:26 PM ^
Winning solves that problem. Chillax.
November 1st, 2022 at 7:28 PM ^
Not necessarily. You're underestimating the ESPN appetite for three one loss SEC teams and Clemson.
November 1st, 2022 at 8:29 PM ^
So you're suggesting that an undefeated Michigan won't be in the CFP because of ESPN's desire for 3 SEC teams?
ESPN doesn't pick the teams, lol...the CFP is its own committee and ESPN has exclusive broadcast rights.
The conspiracy theories have gone too far.
November 1st, 2022 at 8:33 PM ^
Michigan would never be left out if undefeated, but I think that saying ESPN has no sway over the committee is pretty naive. When there's money and passion, there's corruption. Just a fact of life
November 1st, 2022 at 8:45 PM ^
So ESPN just calls them up and says, "hey, put Michigan #5."
How does that work.
ESPN can have sway by having all of their talking heads say the same thing. But that's it.
FOX can do the same thing. So can CBS. And there is nothing stopping NBC from claiming ND the best 3 loss team in the country and pushing that agenda.
All media has some level of influence. But no, ESPN does not have this conspiracy influence that too many people overreact about.
These are ADs in a room and ESPN gets to report their rankings.
They could switch to FOX next week, it won't matter.
November 1st, 2022 at 11:55 PM ^
Considering most of the talking heads had Michigan at #4 after Saturday. People read into things too much and see things that are not there. There are four, hopefully five more games in the season. Win those games and Michigan is in. Simple.
November 1st, 2022 at 11:52 PM ^
You are suggesting that the number five ranked team that defeats the number two ranked team, and then goes on to win their conference championship won't be in the playoff?
November 1st, 2022 at 7:57 PM ^
Exactly. Beat OSU and we're in. Lose and we're out. It's that simple.
November 1st, 2022 at 8:16 PM ^
So, if OSU loss to UM, would they make it in because they started at 2? If they do, that would piss me off because we aren't given the same luxury.
November 1st, 2022 at 8:27 PM ^
osu would have no chance if they lose at home
November 1st, 2022 at 8:33 PM ^
Osu played nd instead of Colorado state in the non conference. The committee should reward trying to play real teams
November 1st, 2022 at 8:50 PM ^
ND sucks. And UM plays Illinois. OSU doesn't. So, before we play OSU and both teams win out, would they make UM over OSU? No.
November 2nd, 2022 at 7:17 AM ^
Haven’t played yet is the issue
November 1st, 2022 at 9:39 PM ^
No, the committee should reward PLAYING good teams. Sorry, but right now, ND does not fit that description. At least I can see why some could put Clemson ahead of Michigan (based just on resume, more top25 wins). But I don't really understand why OSU is #2 and UM #5. Michigan finished higher last year, beat OSU and has a similar resume this year. If it's just based on looks at this point, then fine but Michigan should be ahead of Clemson.
November 1st, 2022 at 10:57 PM ^
Apparently because their offense is like diarrhea (explosive) rather than strong, solid, regular, and unstoppable.
November 2nd, 2022 at 12:24 AM ^
and unstoppable
Except in the red zone.
Too soon?
November 2nd, 2022 at 9:08 AM ^
About that. OSU had their share of trouble when the field narrows....
November 3rd, 2022 at 12:33 PM ^
Compare last year to this. RedZone issues were about the same at this point. But we were automatic in the RZ the last couple games of the season.
I wish we had a little more OL depth. Being able to rotate on the OL without losing effectiveness is an advantage that increases as the season gets long, and defenses are tired and banged up.
November 2nd, 2022 at 12:27 AM ^
November 2nd, 2022 at 9:07 AM ^
Yep. It looks like style points make a difference in perception.
November 2nd, 2022 at 7:01 AM ^
I don’t think it’s entirely unfair to give OSU some of extra credit after the last 10 years, but if we beat them again this year and make the playoffs two years in a row, I’d hope that starts to fade going forward.
November 2nd, 2022 at 7:03 AM ^
I mean, I don't disagree that ND is not good, but that's just relative to their relatively high standards. They are still 32nd in SP+, compared with Michigan's three out of conference opponents, who are all bottom 10 in SP+. Ohio State's two other out of conference opponents are also not bottom 10. Not to mention they both have a win over the same top 25 team, but Michigan played them at home and Ohio State won on the road.
All this to say that you can't really argue with a straight face that Michigan's schedule is not much weaker to date. Regardless, we just need to beat them and it'll resolve itself.
November 2nd, 2022 at 9:14 AM ^
UM was negged BADLY for their OOC opponents of Hawaii, U Conn and Colo State - I believe I read that it was the weakest SOS out of the first 12 teams. Just says that if it comes down to a one-loss UM and another for the 4th spot, we'll probably be left out.
Beat OSU and we're in - plain and simple. Lose and we're out
November 2nd, 2022 at 10:42 AM ^
The problem is by at least some metrics, OSU's schedule to date (and Clemson's) are, in fact, much weaker than Michigan's. By FEI expected wins, Michigan is 6th, OSU is 29th, and Clemson is 18th.
November 1st, 2022 at 8:33 PM ^
Their loss would be at home.
But OSU being #2 right now doesn't mean anything.
Beat Illinois and we'll leap frog Clemson before we even play OSU.
Clemson has Jack and Shit left on their regular season schedule.
Just win out. Do that and Michigan could climb all the way to #1 if Bama also wins out.
November 1st, 2022 at 8:39 PM ^
I'm not sure about Jack, but there's a chance they could lose to Shit.
November 1st, 2022 at 8:46 PM ^
Jack's in Death Valley, night game.
Zero chance against Clemson.
November 2nd, 2022 at 9:10 AM ^
I sure hope you are right. As it stands today, I feel like we are being dinged for not having a great OOC schedule and not having style points except against PSU.
November 2nd, 2022 at 1:54 PM ^
Wolve1972, I think a 1 loss big ten team can get in. Do you really think Tennessee is going undefeated? UGA has had a top 3 defense seems like forever. I think UGA spanks them pretty good imo this week in Athens. The UGA defense is going to be ready. It could drop Tennessee out of the top 5 if it’s convincing enough. Unless Bama beats UGA in the conference champ? Now you are talking chaos.
November 2nd, 2022 at 1:44 AM ^
This is what you get when the ACC, which is basically the big ten west plus Clemson, gets over rated. You get a collection of one score wins over Syracuse Forest College being the backbone of your dynasty.
November 1st, 2022 at 7:28 PM ^
Argh, I had the top 5 initially correct in the earlier prediction thread and swapped TCU (from 6th to 4th) with Clemson (from 4th to 6th) based on TCU's #3 SoR. Should have stuck with my initial picks.
Looks like the committee appropriately dinged TCU for benefitting from opponent QB injuries and otherwise went mostly chalky with the resume metrics from 1-4 as usual.
November 2nd, 2022 at 1:38 AM ^
...for correctly predicting where the committee would be put Michigan?
November 1st, 2022 at 7:30 PM ^
Agree 100%. That said for context, just remember it's a TV show. It's an even less interesting TV show if it's entirely predictable and stays the same basically for the next month. Obviously there are head to head matchups that will inherently change how this thing looks.
But by its very nature the intent is to be a conversation piece so people will watch. It's not attempting to predict the final four teams come the second week in December, it's attempting to be "interesting" for five weeks before the one time it has to be accurate.
November 1st, 2022 at 7:38 PM ^
I could not agree with this more.
November 1st, 2022 at 7:34 PM ^
Why is Warde even on the committee if he isn't going to pump us?
/s
November 1st, 2022 at 7:46 PM ^
November 1st, 2022 at 9:17 PM ^
He has to leave the room and wait in the hallway.
November 1st, 2022 at 8:12 PM ^
Should be right next to OSU given common opponents etc. I think Michigan’s relatively boring offense is holding the team back in terms of flare on top of ESPN’s SEC/ACC bias given the new FOX deal w the B10. They have zero incentive to push B10 teams.
November 1st, 2022 at 9:55 PM ^
What’s holding Michigan back right now is:
CSU, Hawaii, UCONN
thats it.
If you want a schedule with guaranteed wins, fine, it just amazes me how many people want to pretend that there’s no cost to it.
November 1st, 2022 at 10:48 PM ^
Those games don't really matter at this point. Do you really think that substituting Texas Tech for Colorado State would make a big difference? They would beat either team.
Michigan has a better win (Penn State) than Clemson has on their resume. Michigan has won every game but one by double digits (and they lead that one by 15 with about 2:00 to go). Clemson went to OT against Wake Forest (who got destroyed last weekend) and trailed Syracuse (who got destroyed last weekend) in the 4th quarter.
Michigan is Top 10 in Scoring O and D. Clemson is barely in Top 20 in either.
Michigan has a QB who is leading the nation in completion percentage. Clemson has a QB who got benched in his last game. Michigan has an RB who is leading the nation in rushing TD's and is near the top of the list in yards.
There is no measureable indicating that Clemson is better than Michigan.
November 1st, 2022 at 11:54 PM ^
I would so relish a chance to beat the tar out of Clemson, I cannot tell you. I'd bet 95 percent of this board thinks we could do it, too..
November 2nd, 2022 at 12:31 AM ^
Yeah, I agree with this. I don't understand the Clemson love from the committee. Recency bias doesn't really make sense because Michigan made the CFP more recently than Clemson has. I think it all boils down to people not trusting that Michigan is top 4 good, yet. The non conference schedule hurt us. Beating Illinois soundly should turn heads. And then beating OSU goes without saying. I guess we lack the offensive flare that other teams have. But Clemson doesn't have that either. Fuck, I still don't know why Clemson is ahead of us. Is it the magical Dabo effect?
November 2nd, 2022 at 8:22 AM ^
"I don't understand the Clemson love from the committee. Recency bias doesn't really make sense because Michigan made the CFP more recently than Clemson has."
It's bizarre that so many people here completely ignore a feature of college football polling that has been in place for many decades—programs that have established a multi-year record of elite performance in any era have ALWAYS gotten the benefit of the doubt in polling. Ohio State in the late '60s, Nebraska in the '70s, Miami in the '80s, FSU in the '90s, USC in the 2000s, and Alabama and Clemson in the last decade have all gotten this. The more frequent the appearance a program has had at the apex of college football, the longer this aura of being elite will persist beyond the point where it's no longer the case in reality.
This benefit isn't permanent; if a formerly dominant program has a decline that's more than one season, the glow effect of its former dominance can dissipate relatively quickly.
But the rub is in the definition of "decline." Clemson critics point to its struggles this season as clear evidence of "decline" while Clemson apologists point to the fact it's still undefeated as evidence it deserves to be ranked high.
What Clemson has going for it is the fact that since the current playoff format was instituted for the 2014-15 season, it has made the playoff 6 times, which is second in total appearances only to Alabama. It's made the title game 4 times, second only Alabama's 6, and has won the title game twice, second only to Alabama's 3 victories. This record creates a glow in the minds of pollsters that they would never admit, but I think it's beyond naive to think it doesn't exist.
Yes, Clemson's last two appearances in the playoffs haven't been ultimately successful, but the problem for Michigan is that its only appearance is still fresh in the memory of those who are rating teams, and it didn't help us that we got our asses kicked by Georgia. As long as Clemson continues to be undefeated, Michigan will have to pile up style points in its own victories to get past this. Our victory over MSU was solid but unspectacular. 5 field goals in multiple trips to the red zone over a 3-5 team isn't particularly persuasive.
Ultimately this first poll doesn't change what was the case before the poll: Michigan cannot afford to lose to OSU if it wants a realistic chance to make the playoffs.
To be clear, I am NOT defending or approving of the fact that teams with very recent levels of elite performance are extended the benefit of the doubt in polling even if it appears they don't merit it. I am simply saying it's been a longstanding reality of college football and that nobody should be surprised by it.
November 2nd, 2022 at 9:08 AM ^
Good points and I agree. And I am not surprised, I just don't want to acknowledge that it's a real thing when our team is currently on the outside looking in and the only way in is the daunting task of beating the #2 team at their place. But that is the cost of admission whether we were ranked #1, #2, #3, #4, #5, #6 or #7. If we lose that game, we would be out...and that would be mostly fair.
I say mostly because it also depends on how we lose - last second FG or a 3-score drubbing. It also depends on the landscape of the teams vying for those four spots as well.
November 2nd, 2022 at 1:45 AM ^
Clemson has SoS of 72 and SoR of 4 compared to Michigan's 79 and 7. The committee tends to follows ESPN's SoR pretty closely. It could have been worse.
That SoS margin is very close though and based on how it works there's a pretty big difference between Texas Tech and Colorado State. Michigan would be sitting at something in the 60s if you swapped TTU for CSU and then they'd be #4 or possibly #3 in SoR.
If Michigan had played UCLA like they were supposed to, which is a MASSIVE difference between CSU, they'd be #2 right now with a decent chance of punching their ticket on 11/19.
Clemson has three wins over teams the committee ranked. Michigan has...one. Michigan has only played two teams with a winning record!!! Two! Both at home! Total joke of a schedule. Granted, we're being hurt by Iowa and MSU being down, but canceling the UCLA series is a killer.
Thanks Warde!
November 2nd, 2022 at 2:22 AM ^
But they do! The strength of schedule right now is ~80ish…the biggest thing weighing it down is the bottom feeders we played in the OOC schedule.
November 2nd, 2022 at 9:21 AM ^
Michigan had UCLA on the schedule, but they decided they wanted 7 home games, so they dropped them and got UConn instead.
The Non-Conference scheduling has been ass for the last few years and looks like it will be for the next couple. At least until the Home and Homes with Texas and Oklahoma come online.
November 1st, 2022 at 11:30 PM ^
This argument would have more merit if it wasn't Clemson that jumped us. They sleep walk through the ACC every year, and they have a joke of a non-conference schedule, except for ND, who they haven't played yet.
November 1st, 2022 at 11:40 PM ^
And South Carolina.....who they haven't played yet. Clemson is getting A LOT of mileage out of wins over NC State and Wake Forest.