Michigan - Rutgers opens at -19
Opening line has Michigan - Rutgers at -19!! I was expecting -14, so this was quite surprising. I suspect some of this is due to Michigan’s wild outperformance of Vegas lines so far…
Michigan 16.5 points favorites vs. WMU. Won by 33, beat the spread by 16.5.
Michigan 6.5 points favorites vs. Washington. Won by 21, beat the spread by 14.5.
Michigan 27 point favorites vs. NIU. Won by 53, beat the spread by 26 points.
That is average beating of the spread by 19 points so far!!
September 19th, 2021 at 3:28 PM ^
Seems like a lot but hopefully the men are ready
September 19th, 2021 at 3:28 PM ^
We don't need to give Rutgers any more motivation against us. Rat poison.
September 19th, 2021 at 3:28 PM ^
Seems high. -17 seemed like the right number to me. Beat Rutgers and cover a -17 or -19 spread would be something.
September 20th, 2021 at 8:51 AM ^
I am a little surprised people are shocked by this line. Washington is better than RU, right? Western is about the same level. Shouldn't we beat the hell out of them?
September 20th, 2021 at 9:07 AM ^
Yeah it's possible Michigan has an off day and Rutgers has a great day and keeps it within 2 scores, but I think it's way more likely we pave them 42-10.
September 19th, 2021 at 3:34 PM ^
I see the game going something like 42-14 or 42-21 so 19 points seems about right. Rutgers will bring their a game so 42-21 is probably pretty realistic.
September 19th, 2021 at 4:26 PM ^
I don't think Rutgers scores 21 points against this defense. Their offense is dreadful outside of Pacheco. Their defense is decent but I think Michigan puts at least 30 on them, likely upper 30s. I feel like the line is a tad light but I guess Rutgers is better than what they have been in the past so sure, I'll go with it.
If I was to bet on this game I'd take Michigan and the over.
September 19th, 2021 at 8:21 PM ^
On paper - this should not be close at all.
To date M is 3.9 yards better than Rutgers on a per play basis. (3.0 ypp Offense, 0.9 ypp defense) -
Before this weekend's games (wins for all teams) Football outsiders has M at 6 and Rutgers at 77 (Washington is at 25, WMU at 79) -- Same period SP+ has M at 7 and Rutgers at 72 (Washington 31 and WMU 77) -- NIU was at 100 before our game for further reference.
Rutgers Opponents in FEI - Syracuse at 86, Temple at 116, Delaware FCS not ranked
I realize games are not played on paper...... but the numbers say this should be a WMU level beatdown barring something crazy. The RU punter is averaging over 50 ypa fwiw.
(Pacheco is only averaging 51 ypg by the way).
September 20th, 2021 at 11:56 AM ^
I don't think Rutgers scores 21 points against this defense. Their offense is dreadful outside of Pacheco.
Michigan's secondary outside of Hill isn't that great either.
September 19th, 2021 at 9:51 PM ^
53–10
September 19th, 2021 at 3:36 PM ^
Rutgers is underrated because Schiano is a very good coach and will have them ready. Rutgers has been having a lot of problems defending the run, though, and that could result in a big victory. I expect a battle.
September 19th, 2021 at 7:03 PM ^
If they can't defend against the run, I'm taking the over; their goose is cooked.
September 19th, 2021 at 7:52 PM ^
They give up 93 rush yards per game and we give up 112
September 19th, 2021 at 10:32 PM ^
Delaware got 200 yards on 20 carries, lost 45 on sacks.
September 19th, 2021 at 3:39 PM ^
I would take Michigan to cover, but not by a lot. Being that this is the first conference game, I think the coaches are going to go reasonably conservative and try to win this one on the ground simply because they can. I'd be surprised to see McNamara throw more than 20 passes in this game. I think Michigan wins by 3 touchdowns 34-13.
September 19th, 2021 at 4:11 PM ^
With this year’s team, keeping it on the ground may not keep our offense in check.
September 19th, 2021 at 4:51 PM ^
Indeed. If we were trying to play conservative and play for time of possession we should keep the ball out of Corums hands. Too much of a threat to house it and not chew up the clock.
September 19th, 2021 at 3:42 PM ^
My prediction is Michigan 39-17. So 19 seems about right .. but plz don’t bet on Michigan games , unless you are truly a gambling NUT JOB ,
September 19th, 2021 at 6:54 PM ^
College football in general this year has been nuts as far as betting goes. If I actually bet on games I'd be screwed, which is why I don't.
The only guaranteed money is if Michigan is ever the underdog in a game...take the other team lol.
September 19th, 2021 at 3:42 PM ^
I think I'd take the points. Michigan win but closer than 3 touchdowns.
September 19th, 2021 at 3:46 PM ^
I may be overthinking this, but Rutgers feels much better than -19. I think they are a well coached team with a lack of players right now. I sure hope we cover this, but the gut tells me this might get messy. That could also just be impending diarrhea from the nachos I ate few hours ago.
September 19th, 2021 at 4:11 PM ^
Rutgers benefitted early season from turnovers in their first two games (+9) and then played Delaware. So it’s hard to really tell how good they are.
Going +4 in turnovers and only beating Syracuse 17-7 is an example
September 19th, 2021 at 3:49 PM ^
I think they cover
September 19th, 2021 at 8:10 PM ^
Bold prediction since it is unclear to whom "they" refers.
September 20th, 2021 at 8:57 AM ^
If it helps to clarify, everyone is saying that they’ll cover.
September 19th, 2021 at 3:53 PM ^
Their offense is trash and they aren't stopping the bulldozers up front. They'll get one or two drives like the other teams we've played, it won't be enough. 37-9.
September 19th, 2021 at 4:03 PM ^
Impressive so far. Beat Rutgers ! I like Michigan's chances based on how they have played thus far.
September 19th, 2021 at 4:18 PM ^
Turnovers are so random and we've had none so far. Although these were very convincing wins hopefully they continue, we've benefited greatly from this as far as Vegas lines go.
September 19th, 2021 at 7:50 PM ^
While Michigan has not had any TOs, they've also only forced one themselves. And Rutgers seemingly has had much more TO luck that Michigan thus far
September 19th, 2021 at 8:29 PM ^
This is sort of true. Fumble recovery is random but the ability to not fumble is a skill, one both of our backs seem to possess.
Also INTs are a lot less common when you don’t throw much, and Cade also seems pretty conservative and safe with the ball.
September 19th, 2021 at 8:29 PM ^
This is sort of true. Fumble recovery is random but the ability to not fumble is a skill, one both of our backs seem to possess.
Also INTs are a lot less common when you don’t throw much, and Cade also seems pretty conservative and safe with the ball.
September 19th, 2021 at 8:49 PM ^
There was one interception last game, but the point still stands.
Edit....yes, you are correct. We haven't given the ball away. I read your post as turnovers where we recieved the ball.
September 19th, 2021 at 4:20 PM ^
Don’t care about how much they are favored by not if they are now in the rankings- would rather fly under the radar a few more weeks. Don’t need the hype, because when that happens in the past the teams have read up in themselves and then become overconfident. Just win and win easy. I like no stress Saturdays in September. Go Blue!
September 19th, 2021 at 4:25 PM ^
Did I miss something about Rutger this year? That line seems low to me
September 19th, 2021 at 4:49 PM ^
Chris Ash is no longer their coach? I mean he wasn’t last year either but ya know.
Rutgers is competent now. They won’t give up when you go up a score like previous iterations. Michigan should certainly win but this isn’t 2016-2019 Rutgers.
September 19th, 2021 at 4:28 PM ^
So many times....
The spread is NOT a prediction of score, it's just the line at which they think people will make bets.
If anything it's a prediction of what the general populations prediction of the score would be.
September 19th, 2021 at 4:50 PM ^
So basically it’s the general populations average prediction
September 19th, 2021 at 5:36 PM ^
I mean “general populations” aren’t really the heavy betters in gambling. The sharks dictate line movement, not average joe putting $100 on a game.
September 20th, 2021 at 12:22 AM ^
The whole concept of a “public” team is exactly that they get a lot of the general public betting on them, as compared to the sharps (sharps). And MICH is definitely a public team.
September 19th, 2021 at 5:50 PM ^
“General populations” generally aren’t big bettors. The people placing their bets typically do their homework on these teams. You’re half right, it’s not an outright score prediction. They’re trying to get people to bet both sides so they come out on top. The people they get to bet typically know their shit, so it essentially boils down to being a score prediction.
September 19th, 2021 at 4:42 PM ^
I'll settle for another Michigan 31-10 win.
September 19th, 2021 at 4:50 PM ^
Let’s beat them by 38 then
September 19th, 2021 at 4:57 PM ^
It’s a good thing that triple overtime victory from last season should still be fresh in a lot of our players minds so there should be a minimal chance of anyone overlooking them.
Ive got 38-17 Michigan
September 19th, 2021 at 6:28 PM ^
I looked it up and Rutgers still has the same QB who threw for almost 400 yards on us last year.
I think the defense ESPECIALLY won't forget about last year.
September 19th, 2021 at 10:20 PM ^
As long as they don’t get reminded.
September 19th, 2021 at 5:09 PM ^
Already took UM to cover. Parlayed that with ND straight up (+198) over Wisconsin in Chicago and Sparty to cover 3.5 over Nebraska
September 19th, 2021 at 5:24 PM ^
Ballsy taking ND straight up vs Wiscy. Hope you do well my friend!
September 19th, 2021 at 5:23 PM ^
I wouldn't touch that one....
September 19th, 2021 at 5:29 PM ^
Way too many points. Lots of strange things can happen when the spread is that wide.
September 19th, 2021 at 5:31 PM ^
Delaware ran for (sack adjusted) 7.3 yards per carry on 28 running plays. Yes, a team named the Blue Hens. This will be a beat down.