Michigan 2 in the College Football Playoff Rankings
Here's the link to the rankings.
Some notes:
- No real surprises in the top 4--Georgia, Michigan, TCU, USC
- OSU and 'Bama round out the top 6
- Michigan's win against OSU is the best of the season, but the overall schedule strength probably killed any chance at getting the top spot this week (perhaps next week, if Michigan can avoid any Spoilermaking and Georgia loses to LSU)
- TCU has the best schedule strength of any top 4 team
- 'Bama (6) over the Vols (7) means that 'Bama is ranked ahead of a team it lost to. That said, Tennessee's starting QB is hurt and was replaced by former Michigan Russian Rocket Arm Joe Milton. Another insult to the Vols: historically, no team ranked below 6 during the final week of the regular season has snuck into the Playoff.
- I think folks here have discussed scenarios a great deal, but:
- Georgia/Michigan probably still in if they lose their championship games
- TCU should also be in it if they lose, unless it's by a large margin. They'll be playing a ranked K-State team.
- USC is in if they win; OSU will likely scoot on in if USC loses
- The Playoff Committee has shown an aversion to immediate rematches, so even if the Buckeyes back into the Playoff, Michigan will likely not play them in the first playoff game.
November 30th, 2022 at 1:56 AM ^
Man, it's 8 posts down.
In b4 delete.
November 30th, 2022 at 2:09 AM ^
This post is quite a bit more informative. I honestly don't mind all the extra posts this week lol still too elated.
November 30th, 2022 at 2:30 AM ^
Seconded.
Feel free to repost the Michigan-Planting-The-Flag-On-The-Block-O thread too.
November 30th, 2022 at 7:21 AM ^
Yeah agreed. The other post is not great - doesn’t say CFP in the title, and they posted it before the CFP rankings were released (when it was posted “ESPN had reported” Michigan was 2 but I don’t think the selection show was even over)
Would much rather keep posts where the OP takes a minute to make a coherent thought than a mad rush to be the “first” to post a thread, broken hyperlinks and misspelled titles be damned.
December 1st, 2022 at 1:46 PM ^
Sure, but should've just put this in the comments in the other thread.
November 30th, 2022 at 3:15 AM ^
Apologies. I'm a little out of it (can't sleep, sick, &c.), so when I saw that thread, I thought it referred to ESPN's own rankings based on the title and a couple of the first posts.
November 30th, 2022 at 7:25 AM ^
You mean that was the committee rankings? I also thought it was just ESPN’s home grown version and ignored it. Thanks for posting this!
November 30th, 2022 at 2:12 AM ^
A lot of people saying they don't want USC but I don't care who M plays first. Likely have to beat Georgia to win it all anyways. USC has a terrible rush defense and a weak offensive line. Williams is electric but he's also doing what he's doing against shit defenses. Duggan obviously isn't as explosive, but that dude also has some wheels and an accurate arm.
Michigan football is in a good place when the conversation is about the preferable playoff opponent.
November 30th, 2022 at 3:54 AM ^
There's something to be said about an easier path, though.
Michigan got dinged for their SOS this year, but I also think that having so much stuff reserved helped the team beat OSU, PSU, and to a lesser extent, MSU, this year. An easier path in the playoff, especially given Michigan's likely talent deficit against Georgia, helps keep certain plays locked away, assuming the opponents are similar enough to use those plays.
That said, I know virtually nothing about TCU except that they play in the Big 12 and that Michigan just got done annihilating a Big 12 coordinator's defense that was stocked with 5-star talent.
November 30th, 2022 at 7:22 AM ^
Still haven't played anybody if I follow the narrative correctly. If UM wins the Natty then maybe they can say they beat somebody and I expect JJ to bring it up with a big smile.
He has a presence and timing along with a calm not seen often at his age. Now if he looks up in the stands during the game at a key moment going forward and says to the huddle, "hey look its' John Candy" or a modern equivalent , then whoa. Joe Montana reference. Coolest cucumber I have ever seen and that includes the Goat who is nearly the same
November 30th, 2022 at 7:41 AM ^
Is TCU the easier path, though? The Big 12 has proven to be the best conference top to bottom this year, and they breezed through it 12-0. They’re more balanced than USC, not as good offensively, but better defensively. They were pretty stout against Texas and make halftime adjustments as well as Michigan does.
honestly, as electric and dynamic as Williams and Addison are, I think I’d rather have them first. Last week their defense was #65 and it’s never seen a RB it wants to tackle. They get away with it because offense. And being a Lincoln Riley offense, stop the big plays and you stop it. What do playoff defenses do? Stop big plays.
Give me USC.
November 30th, 2022 at 8:09 AM ^
Agreed, I think it's close but I'd rather play USC than TCU. TCU's defense has shown some ability to get off the field without turnovers. And pretty much any power ratings worth their salt put TCU in the top 7 and USC outside the top 10.
I think some people are a little dazzled by Williams and his Heisman hype ... but seriously, with a healthy Corum Michigan can basically possess the ball the entire game against that marshmallowy D
November 30th, 2022 at 9:23 AM ^
TCU breezed through the Big 12?
They had to come back from multiple score deficits against Kansas State, Oklahoma State, and Baylor. To overcome K-State, they knocked out QB1 and QB2 (and this was at home). They have given up over 300 points. The Big 12 probably has the most parity of any conference, but only four teams have records over .500. The rest are 6-6 or worse.
I think TCU is a good team, but not a great one. Michigan's defense can handle them (or USC). I don't think either team's defense can handle Michigan's offense.
November 30th, 2022 at 9:34 AM ^
I wouldn't say that TCU breezed through the Big 12. They needed overtime vs Okie State and the walk off FG vs Baylor, plus had second half comebacks vs Kansas and KSU. They did not dominate their conference the way Michigan and Ohio State did.
That being said, they are higher in FPI and SP+ so maybe USC would be a slightly easier path. I'm just afraid that they're being underrated as Caleb Williams gets hot and don't want to get burned by the Heisman winner.
November 30th, 2022 at 6:52 AM ^
Williams is electric but he's also doing what he's doing against shit defenses.
I think Notre Dame's defense was half-decent this year (and ND QB Pyne was 23-26 for the game), but Williams seemingly eluded all defenders and moved the ball at will. I'd rather face TCU at the moment.
November 30th, 2022 at 6:59 AM ^
Notre Dame could not tackle very well all over the field against USC. They also got out of their rush lanes a lot, although I think Williams makes that easier to do.
November 30th, 2022 at 8:14 AM ^
Yardage and first downs were about even in that game, but turnovers favored USC 2-0. Any good team that doesn't turn the ball over beats them.
November 30th, 2022 at 2:15 AM ^
I, for one, would be quite pleased with a CFP where anOSU, Bama, and Clemson are on the outside looking in. Quite pleased.
November 30th, 2022 at 2:38 AM ^
It is dangerous to play a talented team that you beat previously in the same season.
November 30th, 2022 at 3:23 AM ^
I saw a version of this discussion on Twitter between a couple of recruiting analysts, I think.
I forget exactly who said it, but they think that Michigan out-coached OSU, and if that coaching margin shrinks, OSU's overall superior talent will win out.
That makes sense, though I think the issue isn't just schematic-deep (ha?). Based on Seth's 6 TD breakdown, there are some real experience/learning issues throughout the defense--and maybe even talent issues in the secondary--that I'm not sure can get fixed in a month of practice. In addition, OSU's red zone problems can be ironed out with some novel plays, but MGoBlog guys seem to think those problems are baked into the scheme OSU runs.
November 30th, 2022 at 5:35 AM ^
The argument about playing a team twice in one season is specious. The game circumstances change for both teams. If anything, there is no longer a home field advantage/disadvantage and Blake Corum/Mike Morris will be back.
To quote Winston Churchill, especially "we shall fight with growing confidence and growing strength in the air":
November 30th, 2022 at 5:43 AM ^
not sure i'd go so far as to say 'specious', but i would say you bring up two good points about we wouldn't have to play them in the toilet bowl and that we would hopefully have our two best players back.
but ohio can suck eggs as far as i'm concerned. they need to be watching the CFP on the TV and hating their football lives, having players opting out of the rose bowl, miserably engaging in a circular firing squad, fans and all.
November 30th, 2022 at 6:17 AM ^
Even more satisfying could be the Rose Bowl opting to tap Penn State instead to avoid that rematch
November 30th, 2022 at 6:01 AM ^
If USC loses by one again they better not get jumped.
November 30th, 2022 at 7:51 AM ^
The pac 12 should just immediately cancel the championship game. The conference has nothing to gain by having it, only something to lose.
Pretty weak that teams that skip that extra game aren't punished for it, while teams that play that extra game (generally against a quality opponent) are.
November 30th, 2022 at 8:16 AM ^
The committee should tell OSU and Alabama "play each other this weekend for that last playoff spot, otherwise we're putting USC in even if they lose"
Make Boo Corrigan the college football version of Jigsaw
November 30th, 2022 at 11:55 AM ^
That'd actually be a fun game to watch.
November 30th, 2022 at 6:15 AM ^
Someone help me understand ESPN's playoff predictor odds. These were posted just after the new rankings came out. Chance to make the CFP:
- G 99.9%
- M 99
- TCU 92
- USC 20
- osu 71
First 3 make sense, they're in so long as they don't lose a 50-burger. But I don't understand why USC's odds wouldn't simply equal their chances to beat Utah! Which they're a slight favorite in, by the way.
November 30th, 2022 at 6:42 AM ^
I think something (well, a few things) are messed up at ESPN. They have USC favored by 3 against Utah but if you click in the matchup the probability predictor has Utah favored. Credit ESPN for hedging this bet.
November 30th, 2022 at 8:54 AM ^
Is 3 the actual point spread (by Vegas books) and 20% the FPI predictor at ESPN? The latter seems a little low but I do see some power ratings favoring Utah by as much as 4.5 points
November 30th, 2022 at 10:44 AM ^
I think their FPI disagrees with the oddsmakers. FPI likes Utah for some reason. That's why.
November 30th, 2022 at 9:24 AM ^
This is because ESPN’s playoff predictor thinks OSU can get voted in even if USC wins. So their probabilities calculate correctly but they are based on flawed assumptions about what the committee might do.
November 30th, 2022 at 6:48 AM ^
I can picture it now. Michigan gets the 'easy' path to the championship game and gets dinged by the bobbing heads for their SOS in the playoffs.
November 30th, 2022 at 7:21 AM ^
It was brought up AGAIN on the rankings show. We're debating a coinflip between 2 dominant teams, some people just can't/don't want to drop a comfortable narrative. This conversation was only relevant without blowing out PSU/osu. Get over it.
November 30th, 2022 at 7:56 AM ^
Michigan played UConn, Colo St, and Hawaii.
Alabama played Utah st, Louisiana-Monroe, and Austin Peay (at the end of the season).
One of them "has a weak OOC schedule" the other "schedules smartly."
The bias is thick.
November 30th, 2022 at 9:05 AM ^
Alabama also played Texas on the road
We have the softest OOC this year. It's fine, it likely helped us. We're the best team in the country
November 30th, 2022 at 11:54 AM ^
They played a bad Texas team, which is the equivalent to any conference game Mich played, as they played one more than Alabama.
November 30th, 2022 at 8:25 AM ^
Georgia loses to USC in the semis, Michigan beats TCU and then USC, and then they say that Michigan didn't play anybody, and therefore... something, I don't know what
November 30th, 2022 at 7:12 AM ^
I am not a fan of punishing USC for losing a second game in conference championship when OSU is sitting on their asses during this week. The question should be who is better as of this week among USC, OSU and Bama. The question has been answered with ranking. The only way I see OSU or Bama getting in is if TCU and USC get blown out. Even then, how do we know OSU and Bama would not have blown out if they played this week.
November 30th, 2022 at 7:54 AM ^
Agree, I hate this. Easy to poke holes in but I would almost prefer amnesty for anyone playing the conf title game - you can improve your stock, but can't have a loss held against you
November 30th, 2022 at 8:11 AM ^
Yep. If USC was ranked 5 and OSU 4, you switch spots if USC wins.
November 30th, 2022 at 8:31 AM ^
While I agree with you, we need to remember that back in 2016 after losing to OSU we all expected to jump Washington if they lost in the PAC12 CG. Nobody was saying that it shouldn't be held against them. LOL!!! My, how things change when we want a different result!!
This entire beauty pageant needs to be ended by a true playoff. The sooner, the better...
November 30th, 2022 at 8:55 AM ^
I will be honest. I don't remember how other teams faired that year. But I remember that we lost so close and there was a debate if we actually won that game. This OSU team was smoked. It is not the same. I did not neg you by the way. Just saying that comparison is not the best.
November 30th, 2022 at 8:27 AM ^
Would love to see the playoffs without OSU or Alabama sneaking in somehow. New blood in will only increase the excitement for the playoffs and help with parity even more.
-Georgia and Michigan are in pretty much no matter what happens this weekend.
-TCU should be in even with a loss, as long as it isn’t a blowout loss.
-USC’s game is the real hinge point, IMO. Win and obviously they are in. Lose and I think the committee would have no choice but to move OSU in.
-Alabama’s only shot at getting in is having both tcu and usc lose in blowout losses, and even that is iffy as TCU would still only have one loss to Alabama’s two. I don’t underestimate the committee’s sec biases at all, though, and could see them already having decided to slip Alabama in if this scenario plays out. They’d claim something something about how Alabama’s losses were only in the last seconds, or OT, and that they easily could have been unbeaten in the regular season, completely ignoring that they also could have just as easily been a four loss team.
November 30th, 2022 at 8:35 AM ^
ESPN listed Michigan (99%), Georgia (99%) and TCU (90%) as shoe-ins to make the playoffs and USC as 20% chance. I don't quite know what that means for the Trojans. I'd think they're in with a win and out with a loss. Does that mean ESPN gives them a 20% chance of winning the game?
Edit: Just saw MightyMatt’s post above. Asked and answered but not debated. I guess it comes down to ESPN being an entertainment company, not a news company.
November 30th, 2022 at 8:48 AM ^
Made the mistake of watching that ESPN hack Stephen A talk about how no matter how they happen, that if either tcu loses or usc loses that Alabama should be in over that losing team and OSU. Probably doesn’t need to be said, but I’ll say it anyways: He is an idiotic ESPN sec shill who is just loud and obnoxious in his constant talking over people as if he’s the smartest person in the room, always.
November 30th, 2022 at 9:06 AM ^
Stephen A. Smith got his big break with my hometown newspaper, the Inquirer.
I deeply apologize on behalf of Philadelphia for unleashing him on the world.
November 30th, 2022 at 8:58 AM ^
I want TCU. I believe they're the "easiest" path to the championship game.
Yeah, USC is beatable. But Caleb Williams is a problem. He's Stroud with the ability to run ... a lot.
He is very difficult to sack as he moves around in the backfield a ton. He would be a very difficult matchup ... probably the most difficult out of any of the four possible opponents (Georgia, TCU, USC, Ohio State)
I'm rooting for Georgia, Michigan and TCU to win and the rankings to stay the same.
November 30th, 2022 at 11:48 AM ^
Beat purdue
November 30th, 2022 at 3:55 PM ^
A few CFP Poll tidbits.
USC has reached the Top 4 of the CFP Poll for the first time. Before this season, its highest CFP Poll ranking was #8 in 2017. The Trojans join Oregon and Washington as the only Pac 12 teams to be ranked in the Top 4 at any time during the CFP Poll era.
TCU has been ranked in the Top 4 six times in the history of the CFP Poll. It joins Oklahoma as the only other Big 12 team to ever be ranked in the CFP Top 4. Baylor was #5 in the final poll in 2014.
With Jim Harbaugh as its head coach, Michigan has now climbed into the second tier of powers in the CFP Poll Era. Based on Top 25, Top 10, Top 4 and Playoff appearances (and giving weight to higher rankings) Alabama, Ohio State and Clemson are in Tier 1. Georgia, Oklahoma, Notre Dame and Michigan are in Tier 2. These tiers are not derived from the past two years. They encompass the entire CFP Era – 2014 to today – including Brady Hoke’s final year of empty rankings. The third tier of teams are: LSU, Oregon, Penn State, Wisconsin, Baylor, TCU, Florida, Michigan State, Utah, Auburn and Oklahoma State.