Michigan 17.5 over Nebraska; Iowa 11.5 over MSU; Other Odds
On a national scale, this is a pretty lame week compared to last week. I feel pretty good about Michigan covering this week. Some odds from the Big Ten and nationally:
- Michigan 17.5 over Nebraska
- Iowa 11.5 over MSU
- Penn State 26.0 over Northwestern
- Maryland 14.0 over Indiana
- Purdue 1.0 over Illinois
- Oregon State 3.5 over Utah
- USC 21.5 over Colorado
- Georgia 14.5 over Auburn
- Texas 17.0 over Kansas
- LSU 2.5 over Ole Miss
- Notre Dame 6.0 over Duke
September 25th, 2023 at 1:54 PM ^
Surprised to see that line move so much in the Utah game. I grabbed it at UT +2 when it opened thinking it would swing the opposite way further in the week.
Someone tell me what I am missing there?
September 25th, 2023 at 2:02 PM ^
I believe Utah has been hit pretty hard with the injuries. A lot of people probably expecting Oregon St to rebound at home from the loss at Wazzu. I've been riding Utah as well but this one smells bad.
September 25th, 2023 at 5:54 PM ^
Is Cam Rising finally going to play? That makes a huge difference, obviously.
September 25th, 2023 at 8:42 PM ^
I think it's 50/50. Kinda expected Rising back already at this point. Nate Johnson is athletic but he has a long way to go as a passer. They do have several Tongan gentlemen who are beasts up front.
September 25th, 2023 at 2:06 PM ^
I believe the Church of LDS called everyone away on a “surprise mission.” Half the team has 24 hours to pack their stuff for Borneo. BYU is forfeiting the rest of the season.
September 25th, 2023 at 2:18 PM ^
2023 Utah is striking me as a "red and white, western" version of Iowa. Good defense, but their offense stinks right now.
I know, Rising hasn't played yet this year, and maybe he does Friday night. But even if he does, there may be some rust.
But not unlike how Iowa doesn't really win road games against good teams anymore (seriously, they have 1 road win over a ranked team in the last 8 years, and that was over a "fool's gold" Iowa State team in 2021) --- I can pretty easily see this as a spot where Utah's "game won't travel well" either.
Also, Oregon State has only lost once at home post-COVID --- that was last year's narrow loss to USC where they held USC down very well, but lost primarily because they somehow threw 4 INTs against that bad defense.
September 25th, 2023 at 6:46 PM ^
Utah's qb from last year has not played and is likely still hurt. So far they have an elite defense and a comatose offense. They scored a total of 58 points against Florida, Baylor, and UCLA (including a pick 6) and won them all.
Oregon State has shown more balance and beat up on a bunch of bad teams before losing narrowly at Wazzu who is pretty good this year. I think the pointspread is fair based on what we know now.
September 25th, 2023 at 1:55 PM ^
So the MSU/Maryland was a gift last week. I think Iowa is going to roll MSU this week. Another 20+ point loss for sparty.
September 25th, 2023 at 1:57 PM ^
Yeah, Brian Ferentz needs them to score like 70 to get back on track for his 25 PPG average.
September 25th, 2023 at 2:01 PM ^
Iowa isn't as bad as their night white out Penn State performance. MSU really is bad and aren't close to turning it around. Kim won't be their quarterback by the second half against Iowa if he survives that long.
September 25th, 2023 at 2:50 PM ^
I watched part of the MSU game because it was a train wreck and I enjoyed it. That said, Kim was benched in the 3rd for Houser. Houser made a few decent throws and then a bad INT near the goal line. You could tell he was very "green". Ahem. That said, they have a few decent playmakers. Antonio Gates' kid is decent, along with another big TE who was hard to bring down; but there's just not much there to go on. No portal all starts to bail them out this year. Add in the coaching issues, if they end up better than .500 this year it'll be a massive success for them. Some insane tough sledding ahead with 3 of the top 6! teams in the country in the division....
September 25th, 2023 at 3:07 PM ^
You know how I know that Iowa is not very good? Zero points, 76 total yards, 4 1st downs, 4 turnovers, and TOP <15 total minutes and nobody batted a fucking eye. Of course they're not as bad as that performance because there is nothing worse than that.
MSU got absolutely tomahawked by Wash and plucked daisies for most of the 2nd half against Maryland but let's not act like either of these two teams are really better than the other. How the hell Iowa was even ranked in the top 25 is completely insane. Brian Ferentz has the coaching acumen of a dead moth. I truly expect the tv recording and camera equipment to break during some point in this game due to incomprehensible shit show that is bound to be captured live.
September 25th, 2023 at 3:20 PM ^
What Vegas is really saying is that they expect Iowa to win 12-0. Four field goals or, in the ultimate display of Iowa-ness, six safeties.
September 25th, 2023 at 5:05 PM ^
Maybe Iowa gets a defensive TD, recovers one fumble at the 10,but loses 15 yards and kicks a 35 yard FG, and finally pressures the other team into hiking a punt out of the end zone for a safety.
September 25th, 2023 at 6:42 PM ^
I have it Iowa 3, MSU negative 8.5
September 26th, 2023 at 2:38 PM ^
Dang beat me to it. 12-0. 3 safeties, 2 FGs.
September 25th, 2023 at 4:33 PM ^
Dead moths everywhere protest your grossly insensitive comparison.
September 25th, 2023 at 3:09 PM ^
Iowa offense is that bad. You dont forget how to throw a forward pass against Western Michigan
9 of 19 with 2 picks
Good god
September 26th, 2023 at 1:40 PM ^
Forget the spread, the O/U should not be higher than 11 in any game Iowa plays this year.
September 25th, 2023 at 3:30 PM ^
40, but yep Brian needs a big game to get back on track to saving his job. I’ll bet his desperation is greater than the fighting sparties and pick Iowa 45, Michigan Agricultural College 10.
September 25th, 2023 at 4:36 PM ^
There is a big gap between Brian “needs” and Brian “can”. Surely Brian would like to score 40 every game. But he can’t and never will.
Iowa has zero chance of scoring 11.5 points more than MSU. They have little hope of scoring more than 11 points against a Big10 team with a decent DL.
September 25th, 2023 at 2:00 PM ^
I think Iowa covers but with their anemic offense it's tough to see them winning by 20+
September 25th, 2023 at 2:18 PM ^
I don't see Iowa scoring more than 24 points so we'll see. It is a night game @Iowa so it can get weird. But yeah, MSU is terrible.
September 25th, 2023 at 2:43 PM ^
Iowa is more talented than MSU. But, the atmopshere at Kinnick, and the attitude of both teams Saturday night, those strike me as potential wildcards ..........
Ferentz has passed his "sell-by date." I've thought that for awhile, but Saturday night really made it obvious.
A grumbling, annoyed, potentially angry Iowa crowd seems likely. An anti-home field advantage, if you will. MSU, meanwhile, I could see them benefiting from a temporary change of scenery. It hasn't been a fun 2 1/2 weeks for them. A couple-day-trip, temporarily getting out-of-town where all the bad things have happened (and away from their own unhappy fans), is probably welcomed at this point.
Personally, I'm considering MSU straight up here. I see value in that bet.
September 25th, 2023 at 2:58 PM ^
I think alumni love Ferentz still. They know their program has ceiling and Ferentz at least gets them to that ceiling. I have a relative in Iowa that is a doctor and probably a decent donor to the program. Ferentz could literally do no wrong in his eyes. They're mainly angry because people are being mean to his son.
September 25th, 2023 at 3:09 PM ^
We'll see. Iowa has been very stable for 25 years now. But, AD Gary Barta retired a few months ago, "Iowatch" has become a meme, 2 of their 3 primary rivals just brought in new Coaches and appear to have up arrows ........
Sometimes "revolution" gets to be in the air, and comes on quickly.
September 25th, 2023 at 3:44 PM ^
On a down to down basis MSU clearly outplayed Maryland per the metrics. So if they limit mistakes then they might be a better team.
September 25th, 2023 at 5:51 PM ^
This is true. Their loss to Wash was worse than the score reflected, but the loss to Indiana was not as bad as the score indicated if you look at total yardage.
September 26th, 2023 at 2:42 PM ^
It's been way longer than 25 years. Ferentz alone has been there 25 years.
Hayden Fry did excellent with that program. The program has been stable since the early 80s really. It's been a hell of a run for a recruiting territory that screams Kansas. Hayden Fry .613 winning % over 20ish years, Ferentz .618 over 25 years. It's been nearly half a century with 2 coaches - Pittsburgh Steelers style.
OC needs to go obviously.
September 26th, 2023 at 2:41 PM ^
Iowa could turn into Nebraska in a second, with a poor coaching choice. Nebraska let of Pelini due to a far too high opinion of what they are vs what they were in the 1980s and earlier. Iowa admin not going to move on from Ferentz. 8 wins on the annual is ok for them. Yes they have benefited from the west and that goes away next year but it's Iowa fergodsakes.
September 25th, 2023 at 2:44 PM ^
Gosh I don't know. That Iowa-MSU line smells of the most Vegas-y Vegas line to come out in a long time. 11.5 over MSU? I'm waiting for Iowa to win 10-0.
September 25th, 2023 at 2:56 PM ^
Iowa 8-0 on 4 safeties and 40+ combined punts, and <200 yards of total offense combined for both teams. Iowa fans fall back in love with Ferentz afterward.
September 25th, 2023 at 5:57 PM ^
I don't know man. The defense is going to have to score 2 touchdowns OR one touchdown, an extra point, and 3 safeties to get them over that 11.5 point margin. Seems like a lot to ask of a defense.
September 25th, 2023 at 1:57 PM ^
This Michigan - Nebraska game might set a record for the amount of commercial filler minutes during a game time slot.
September 25th, 2023 at 2:27 PM ^
I was pleasantly surprised at the commercial breaks during Sunday night football. They did not cut to commercial every chance they got. I cannot believe I am saying this. That NFL game was more watchable from commercial standpoint than college football.
September 25th, 2023 at 3:32 PM ^
I am one who historically HATES pro ball next to college, but right now, the NFL is definitely a better product.
That is of course, unless a player is dating T. Swizzle and she’s in the family suite. That was quite possibly one of the DUMBEST bits of sports broadcasting I’ve ever seen.
September 25th, 2023 at 5:03 PM ^
No mystery why they went there. If they pulled in one Taylor Swift fan for every 100 RealFootbaw fans they turned off, they'll come out ahead.
September 25th, 2023 at 4:33 PM ^
I had the exact same thought on Sunday. NFL games have substantially better rhythm than college games. Somehow college games go to breaks, and back-to-back breaks, and breaks then one play then another break -- but the one time I try to anticipate a break and go to the bathroom or something, they decide to just stay with the feed despite a change of possession or something that would seem like an obvious break point. There's just no pattern or consistency with college games.
September 25th, 2023 at 2:00 PM ^
I'm not sure Iowa is capable of scoring 11.5 points. If there was ever a game that was destined to end 2-0 Iowa this might be it.
September 25th, 2023 at 2:19 PM ^
MSU probably gives them 14 points on defense. The offense will score 3.
September 25th, 2023 at 2:00 PM ^
17.5 is by far our lowest spread of the season. Is that because it's a road game or because Nebraska might not be terrible? Inquiring minds want to know.
September 25th, 2023 at 2:12 PM ^
That's a really good question
Maybe it's become a running joke that we never cover, so the lines have been adjusted to suit. Nothing about 2023 Nebraska results look like they will challenge us more than any other team.
September 25th, 2023 at 2:18 PM ^
It is because Michigan runs like 14 plays per game and it is simply impossible for them to score very much.
September 25th, 2023 at 2:19 PM ^
Michigan really doesn't seem to run teams off the scoreboard and I feel like Vegas is starting to realize that. They'll beat Nebraska down but it'll be something like 31-10 and not 45-3 and maybe they're recalibrating their expectations a bit.
September 25th, 2023 at 2:30 PM ^
17.5 is still a very healthy number for a road conference game.
When Michigan visited Maryland in 2021, the spread was only 16. Michigan was rolling at that point, and that was a Maryland team with a significantly more questionable defense than 2023 Nebraska - say what you will about the Huskers, but their relative strength is their defense.
September 25th, 2023 at 2:45 PM ^
Ferret drowning is an ugly business.
September 25th, 2023 at 3:50 PM ^
I'd like to think that Michigan is at least as good as Colorado who beat Nebraska by 20+
September 25th, 2023 at 4:39 PM ^
You can't count of 4+ turnovers from Nebraska every game, especially now that Sims is out. If they just punt instead of turning the ball over, that's probably a 1 score game.
I expect Saturday to be a slog. Something like a 24-10 win.
September 25th, 2023 at 6:38 PM ^
Actually, I think Sims is responsible for most of their turnovers. Might be a blessing in disguise for them.